The Korean Dilemma

[Gun Grape]

Japan was not a belligerant in the Korean War. She has no say in any peace treaty.

true. These are separate negotiations. japan has asked Trump to bring up the kidnapped Japanese when he talks to Kim.

Reading the Japanese news, they think Trump will throw them under the bus/has no interest in it.

Moon has talked with Abe, and passed on that NK is willing to talk to Japan about their concerns.

I would bet that part of those talks would center around Japan paying WW2 reparations to NK, like they did to the South.

Goal to drive a wedge between Japan and Trump. Same with SK.

Trump isn't helping with his "Trade Deals" that he is trying to push on both countries.

[Pedicabby]

[Double Edge]

Glad to agree for once but it begs the question of why give him a meeting with a President?

To get concessions, more than previously by NK. Its leverage

Meeting with Trump plays well domestically. Historic. Justifies NK has arrived on the international stage. Gives KJU legitimacy even if he gets nothing out of it

How much is that worth to KJU

[Double Edge]

Goal to drive a wedge between Japan and Trump. Same with SK.

What are the chances Americans do what Japan & SK don't want

SK does not want a war. Here there is a problem if say the talks don't deliver. Trump walks and there is no more diplomacy left.

Americans start beating drums, others keep shouting diplomacy

Haven't figured out as yet how the Japanese get screwed

[snapper]

To get concessions, more than previously by NK. Its leverage

Meeting with Trump plays well domestically. Historic. Justifies NK has arrived on the international stage. Gives KJU legitimacy even if he gets nothing out of it

How much is that worth to KJU

I entirely agree - which is why I would argue it should not happen; nothing is going to 'give'. But Trumpkin wants to be seen...

[Double Edge]

I entirely agree - which is why I would argue it should not happen; nothing is going to 'give'. But Trumpkin wants to be seen...

Well, let's see how much this nothing is. i'm not second guessing anything. There have been enough rabbits pulled out of hats already

I can't help thinking the South wants it real bad too

A wild card here is the Iran nuke deal. If Trump rescinds it come May 12. Does that make NK think no point.

[Skywatcher]

Glad to agree for once but it begs the question of why give him a meeting with a President?

Arguably, not giving Fat Boy a meeting could be worse, given all the rhetorical gasoline that Trump has been pouring on for the last 12 months.

[Officer of Engineers]

Glad to agree for once but it begs the question of why give him a meeting with a President?

Your opinion is worthless and ill-informed and no one is going to listen to you. Attempts at educating you always fall into your delusions that Trump is compromised when you have absolutely ZERO PROOF of anything.

You have squat. Zero. Nadda. Kaputs.

[Double Edge]

Pompeo's testimony on Apr 12 at his senate hearing

About putting the cart in front of the horse

FLAKE:with regard to North Korea, I am happy that the President is -- is talking and discussions at the highest level are had. I've always agreed that Presidents and Secretaries of State and others ought to talk to rogue leaders.

And so -- but I am concerned, I think a lot of Americans are, that these discussions that usually take place in that regard at the head of state level are proceeded by a lot of negotiations, meetings and deliberation by people like yourself and your able diplomats who, if your confirmed, you'll have at the State Department.

Do you have some of those concerns as well hat this first meeting that's being discussed, will take place perhaps prematurely before the hard negotiations that must be done by skilled diplomats you know simply will not have been done?


POMPEO : ...The president's view has been, and I agree with him, that the model we have used previously, long negotiations to get the two leaders to the table, hasn't happened. We haven't had that opportunity to have these two leaders to sit together to try to resolve this incredible, vexing, difficult challenge.

So the president's judged that if the two of them -- there'll be lots of work to do. No one is under any illusions that we will -- we will reach a comprehensive agreement through the President's meeting. But to enable; to set out -- to set out the conditions that would be acceptable to each side for the two leaders that will ultimately make the decision about whether such an agreement can be achieved and then set in place.

I'm optimistic that the United States government can set the conditions for that appropriately so that the President and the North Korean leader can have that conversation will set us down the course of achieving a diplomatic outcome that America so desperately -- America and the world so desperately need.

Whether walking out of the Iran deal will have any effect on KJU

FLAKE: Is there some concern that exiting the Iran agreement might play poorly with regard to a possible agreement with the North Koreans. It would seem that if you're the North Korean leader or negotiators on that side they might be concerned that our reliability in terms of signing an agreement if the next president can simply exit it.

POMPEO: Senator, while I concede we don't know precisely what Kim Jong-un is contemplating, how's he thinking about his option set today, I've read lots of the analysis with respective to what his concerns --and how he's thinking about the challenge he faces today with the enormous economic pressure that has been placed upon him and the list of things that he is thinking about don't involve other deals throughout history.

It's not - it's not the case he's focused. How he did - we pull out of the start treaty. He's thinking about how it is he can set the conditions so that we - while we talk about complete verifiable reversal his nuclear program.

He's thinking about the sustainment of his regime. What are the tools, what are the assurances that can be put in place that are reversible? He's gong to be looking for something more than a piece of paper.

He's going to be looking for a set of conditions to be put in place so that he can undertake a task, denuclearizing his country for decades no one believed could occur.

It would seem KJU does not care about the Iran deal, which I find puzzling. At the same time maybe he thinks Iran is Iran and NK is NK. Apples and Oranges

[Officer of Engineers]

Now it becomes clear. Fat Boy wants to play the US against China and vice versa, much like his father and grandfather did with the USSR and the PRC.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/w...a-meeting.html

Only thing is that keeping nukes isn't on the table with either China nor the US.

[hboGYT]

Now it becomes clear. Fat Boy wants to play the US against China and vice versa, much like his father and grandfather did with the USSR and the PRC.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/w...a-meeting.html

Only thing is that keeping nukes isn't on the table with either China nor the US.

Can't Xi just summon his arse again? Like permanently this time?

[Double Edge]

Only thing is that keeping nukes isn't on the table with either China nor the US.

Then why are the Chinese worried about this

Beijing has suspected that Washington might agree to put aside its nuclear disagreements with North Korea and accept the North’s nuclear capabilities if it served to contain China, said Zhao Tong, a North Korea expert at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing.

I thought the americans are clear they want no nukes. The flaw with the above quote is there is no guarantee those missiles can't be used against the Americans. That guarantee comes only when NK doesn't have nukes. After all, threats to China have been veiled but explicit against the US

Quite a few snubs as well

Beijing was miffed and surprised at being pointedly excluded from several items in the joint declaration that North and South Korea issued last Friday at the end of their summit meeting.

Beyond that, China was not invited to send observers to the planned destruction of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in North Korea at the end of this month. Mr. Kim said he would invite South Korean and American experts to witness the shutdown, a gesture that American officials said would have little impact on the North’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

“The test site is close to the Chinese border,” Mr. Haenle said. “The Chinese were upset because China is a nuclear power, South Korea is not.”

More equal and less supplicant. KJU sees NK in the same way with the Americans as well

Mr. Kim made a surprise visit to Beijing in late March, apparently on his own initiative, maneuvering in a way that made him look less like a supplicant and more like an equal.

[Officer of Engineers]

Can't Xi just summon his arse again? Like permanently this time?

Maybe in the future but not right now. Nothing is concrete yet and if Xi acts now, it would only be a panic act. Something no leader should ever do.

More equal and less supplicant. KJU sees NK in the same way with the Americans as well

I see something else. KJU is in a panic. All these furies of activities: Trump accepting his offer to meet; went kowtowing to Xi; meeting with South Korea; denuclearization; Trump meet. KJU needs a deal and needs a deal fast and he's setting up a bidding war between China and the US.

[Double Edge]

I see something else. KJU is in a panic. All these furies of activities: Trump accepting his offer to meet; went kowtowing to Xi; meeting with South Korea; denuclearization; Trump meet. KJU needs a deal and needs a deal fast and he's setting up a bidding war between China and the US.

How fast is fast ? this will be difficult and time consuming to thrash out.

[Officer of Engineers]

How fast is fast ? this will be difficult and time consuming to thrash out.

Fast enough to satisfy his backers that a payoff is coming.