The Korean Dilemma

[TopHatter]

i think what Kim is demonstrating here is that he's open to a deal where everyone pretends he's denuclearized and relaxes sanctions, and he'll do his part by stopping the bombastic threats to nuke Guam or Seoul or Tokyo.

Agreed, that's about the shape of it, and nothing more.

One way to do it. Ask China to guarrantee KJU's compliance.

And China would refuse, restating their steadfast claim that they don't have that kind of influence against Kim.

[Officer of Engineers]

And China would refuse, restating their steadfast claim that they don't have that kind of influence against Kim.

Assign Chinese inspectors to the IAEA who's going to be the ones verifying compliance.

Don't know how receptive KJU would be if the Chinese re-offer their nuclear umbrella but that is outside of our control.

[TopHatter]

Assign Chinese inspectors to the IAEA who's going to be the ones verifying compliance.

I would trust neither the honesty of the Chinese inspectors nor Kim's allowing them unfettered access to his nuclear program in the first place.

Santayana's ghost permeates throughout.

[Officer of Engineers]

No single one country dominates an IAEA inspection team as per IAEA protocals. This is to ensure an unbias, as much as can be expected, inspection by the IAEA.

However, KJU just got told to behave. There is no question who kowtow to whom. In other words, don't piss Xi off.

[TopHatter]

No single one country dominates an IAEA inspection team as per IAEA protocals. This is to ensure an unbias, as much as can be expected, inspection by the IAEA.

That will certainly help. But we're still back to Kim giving unlimited access to the inspectors and not harassing the shit out of them with petty bullshit.

Gah, I can't imagine a worst posting. Greenland would be more cozy.

However, KJU just got told to behave. There is no question who kowtow to whom. In other words, don't piss Xi off.

That oughta Rocket Man from popping off more of his Roman candles, hopefully.

[Officer of Engineers]

That will certainly help. But we're still back to Kim giving unlimited access to the inspectors and not harassing the shit out of them with petty bullshit.

I would like to see a PLA General leading the inspection team but I doubt KJU would allow a man with more power than he does into his country.

Gah, I can't imagine a worst posting. Greenland would be more cozy.

The GS likes the women there.

That oughta Rocket Man from popping off more of his Roman candles, hopefully.

If we are smart, we would get the Chinese to guarrantee KJU's compliance. Even they are both lying, the fact that Chinese personnel is monitoring actual NK nukes makes us a whole lot safer.

[Double Edge]

Trump slaps China with tariffs, lawsuit, crackdown on technology and few days later, see what happens : D

[Officer of Engineers]

And China would refuse, restating their steadfast claim that they don't have that kind of influence against Kim.

And the meet just put to that lie about the lack of Chinese influence. Xi summoned Kim and Kim dared not stay at home. Also, from the politics of it, how dare you (Kim) make deals (meeting in May) without telling me (Xi).

There's a whole bunch of revelations here, not all of it is good for Kim nor Xi.

[Monash]

Very true Sir, plus it's easy for us in the West to forget that successive NK rulers also have a very thin tight rope to walk when it comes to balancing the need (or desirability) of detente with the West v placating China's immediate geopolitical interests.

[hboGYT]

And the meet just put to that lie about the lack of Chinese influence. Xi summoned Kim and Kim dared not stay at home. Also, from the politics of it, how dare you (Kim) make deals (meeting in May) without telling me (Xi).

There's a whole bunch of revelations here, not all of it is good for Kim nor Xi.

How do you know Kim was summoned?

[Officer of Engineers]

The kowtowing ... and being sent to his room without dinner, ie no big banquet honouring KJU.

[TopHatter]

The kowtowing ... and being sent to his room without dinner, ie no big banquet honouring KJU.

Sir, other than his note-taking, and of course the fact that he went to China instead of the other way around... Did you see other incidents of kowtowing?

And the note-taking mystifies me, and I'm probably missing something from a cultural POV...Was his note-taking a deliberately submissive act?
Wasn't he concerned that those pictures would be plastered all over the world?

[citanon]

offensively, yes; 1950s US armed forces suffered from just this. which is a good reason why Vietnam went so lousy for the US.

on the other hand if your modus operandi is to sit back and live on occasional blackmail, then it's not much of a price to pay.

i think what Kim is demonstrating here is that he's open to a deal where everyone pretends he's denuclearized and relaxes sanctions, and he'll do his part by stopping the bombastic threats to nuke Guam or Seoul or Tokyo.

Then problem for KJU is, he's a lot more vulnerable defensively than the US in the 1950s.

If what the col I have been discussing is right, then at the moment the SK army can smash straight through or encircle the DMZ without breaking a sweat, his DMZ arty positions are a hollow force that can no longer threaten Seoul, his nukes are in pieces without effective means of delivery, and Trump, who might not actually give a **** can set the whole thing off by cruise missiling his nuke infrastructure.

To you, that might sound like OMG Trump can start a calamity. To Trump, that sounds like "you mean I just need to press a button and SK can do most of the work?"

So let's review:

Trump sends missiles
SK goes to town
China doesn't help
Nukes still in pieces with NO war fighting doctrine

That's not a great place to be for KJU.

[snapper]

I don't know what "kowtowing" or "being sent to his room without dinner" what went on; seemed to get a pretty welcome at the train station. I do not think any of us CAN know. I note there are signs of renewed activity at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center (see; https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...id=mailsignout) since the fat guy returned. I must assume this is ok with China. China doesn't want the US in Korea, neither does the Kim regime. I think it is wrong to take too much from Kim writing something down. I would guess they are more getting their roles clear if US negotiations start. I wonder how much this meeting was helped by Trumpkins announcement of a trade war with China? I mean seriously could he not wait to cause a rift with China until after his grandstanding with the smaller dictator?

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, other than his note-taking, and of course the fact that he went to China instead of the other way around... Did you see other incidents of kowtowing?

Plenty

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...n-in-relations

Let's start with the unofficial visit, meaning no one had time to plan it. It was Xi stating out right, get your ass here now!

KJU's public statements of "noble obligation" and "solemn duty" to meet with Xi, read gang leader paying homage to the Godfather.

And the note-taking mystifies me, and I'm probably missing something from a cultural POV...Was his note-taking a deliberately submissive act?
Wasn't he concerned that those pictures would be plastered all over the world?

Don't think he had a choice. Xi is definetely the adult and putting the boy in his place.