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You give KJU a chance to organize a counter strike with whatever survives the first strike.
But a deterrence that needs to be used is no deterrence. He's dead for sure if he counter-strikes. He has a chance if he doesn't. Sounds like a no-brainer for him. What am I missing here?
What makes you think we would stop after only 1 strike? Standard military doctrine is you hit hard, hit fast, and keep on hitting until you're sure your enemy is down.
There is no mutual defence treaty between the two countries. KIS remembered all too way how he was sidelined during the Korean War and vowed never to have Chinese control of North Korea again. The last time the Chinese offered to take the North Koreans under their nuclear umbrella, KJI said no and went ahead with his nuclear program.
The only treaty in existance is the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation but that didn't stop the Chinese from at least publically sanctioning North Korea.
That Treaty is the 1961 Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty. The Chinese have told the world that if North Korea is the aggressor and starts a conflict then they are on their own. But as recent as Dec they stated that if North Korea is attacked they will fulfil their obligation under article 2 of the treaty
The Contracting Parties undertake jointly to adopt all measures to prevent aggression against either of the Contracting Parties by any state. In the event of one of the Contracting Parties being subjected to the armed attack by any state or several states jointly and thus being involved in a state of war, the other Contracting Party shall immediately render military and other assistance by all means at its disposal.
The SKs don't have a choice but to inherit it. In the end, they're family.
But its a dysfunctional family that doesn't get along.
The generation that has family in the North is dying out. The younger generation sees the Norks as backwards and treat them as outcast.
So what happens when the Chinese stop North Koreans at the border and South Korea stops refugees at the DMZ. America starts a war/topples a government then they own the aftermath
Again, we wish! KJU already stated to he will not on the Chinese and I strongly doubt that the Chinese would receive an invitation. The two commands did not even have any dog and pony shows that are now the showcases of Sino-Russo military co-operation. If the Chinese goes in, it would not be on KJU's plan.
But its a dysfunctional family that doesn't get along.
The generation that has family in the North is dying out. The younger generation sees the Norks as backwards and treat them as outcast.
So what happens when the Chinese stop North Koreans at the border and South Korea stops refugees at the DMZ. America starts a war/topples a government then they own the aftermath
We will have to wait until the inevitable civil war in North Korea peters out first.
The idea of a limited surgical strike reminds me of the crazy days of yesteryear when we talked about limited nuclear war and tactical nukes
I'm not one who subscribe to it, especially when 80% of the North Korean military is stationed near the DMZ. Destroy that and Civil War woud erupt in the rest of North Korea.
Again, we wish! KJU already stated to he will not on the Chinese and I strongly doubt that the Chinese would receive an invitation. The two commands did not even have any dog and pony shows that are now the showcases of Sino-Russo military co-operation. If the Chinese goes in, it would not be on KJU's plan.
Don't think that matters. China isn't going to have US troops on their border nor are they going to allow airstrikes and missile strikes destabilizing North Korea. Invading South Korea? No but I can see a air defense of NorK by China
Don't think that matters. China isn't going to have US troops on their border nor are they going to allow airstrikes and missile strikes destabilizing North Korea. Invading South Korea? No but I can see a air defense of NorK by China
With what? Chinese AD defences ain't exactly Star Wars technology and they could not move anything resembling the Kuwait War into North Korea anytime fast. The bulk of the Chinese Air Force is the LAVI copy J10 with nowhere near the state of the art avionics. I don't think the USN or the USAF got anything to fear about the PLAAF.
With what? Chinese AD defences ain't exactly Star Wars technology and they could not move anything resembling the Kuwait War into North Korea anytime fast. The bulk of the Chinese Air Force is the LAVI copy J10 with nowhere near the state of the art avionics. I don't think the USN or the USAF got anything to fear about the PLAAF.
And as recently as last year a senior retired PLA general publicly advocated letting the use have its way with NK while creating a border buffer zone.
China's vaguely worded warnings about NK can be either A: a vague and disavowable warning to the US or B: strategic deception against NK should China need to create a border buffer zone or C: both.
Since C gives the maximum flexibility, its definitely both. The Chinese like to keep their options open and their promises vague.
But by allowing NK to go nuclear we would be inviting precisely that.
How? Crazy man in the North knows that to use Nukes in a first strike ends his country (and more important him) But having them, and the threat of nuclear retaliation keeps him from being attacked.
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