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  • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    We wish! Once the Chinese comes in, KJU loses all control and would be sent to his room.

    There is no mutual defence treaty between the two countries. KIS remembered all too way how he was sidelined during the Korean War and vowed never to have Chinese control of North Korea again. The last time the Chinese offered to take the North Koreans under their nuclear umbrella, KJI said no and went ahead with his nuclear program.

    The only treaty in existance is the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation but that didn't stop the Chinese from at least publically sanctioning North Korea.
    1950 China did come to the aid of the PROK when the country was a silver along the Yalu. Wouldn't a war with PROK give China an opportunity to install their man in Pyongyang, display the power combat capability of a rising power limited to the PROK? Of course, China would want too limit it to North Korean soil.

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    • Originally posted by Dazed View Post
      1950 China did come to the aid of the PROK when the country was a silver along the Yalu. Wouldn't a war with PROK give China an opportunity to install their man in Pyongyang, display the power combat capability of a rising power limited to the PROK? Of course, China would want too limit it to North Korean soil.
      And China would end up paying real money to rebuild North Korea like the US did to Iraq. China doesn't want to do that. Neither does South Korea.
      Chimo

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      • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
        And China would end up paying real money to rebuild North Korea like the US did to Iraq. China doesn't want to do that. Neither does South Korea.
        So if China doesn't want to end up with the booby prize, and South Korea doesn't want to end up with the booby prize, then who ends up with it? Or do we just leave the smoldering cinder there?

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        • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
          So if China doesn't want to end up with the booby prize, and South Korea doesn't want to end up with the booby prize, then who ends up with it? Or do we just leave the smoldering cinder there?
          The SKs don't have a choice but to inherit it. In the end, they're family.
          Chimo

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          • Originally posted by Gun Grape View Post
            The Chinese government has confirmed that they will come to North Koreans aid against any acts of aggression in accordance with their mutual defense treaty.
            Gunny, I think what they've said on this issue has been purposely circumspect. What we do know is that they are building concentration camps.

            Furthermore, from the NK perspective, KJU cannot rule out that Chinese aid is really a pretext for overthrowing him.

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            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
              that's one possibility, yes, but i also wouldn't discount the Chinese making a methodical advance towards the south to push away refugees and to secure a buffer zone.

              especially when most of NK combat power is busy down south.
              Asty, I agree that's a distinct possibility, but I don't believe China will go so far that they risk owning the NK mess.

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              • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                Your thinking is flawed. At the very least, Seoul would call up her reserves and increase overflights over the DMZ in order to monitor NK activities. Once the shooting starts, you can be sure that the local commanders would be given the command to fire on SK positions and aircrafts if not on Seoul herself. Reason being that the NKs don't know where the bombs are coming from, SK or Japan or from an aircraft carrier. Any aircrafts they see, they will shoot at. The DMZ will erupt no matter what.
                Sir, that situation would be even more convenient for SK. if. NK is not engaging in a full scale bombardment of Seoul but just an artillery exchange on SK military positions the SK can degrade NK artillery with distinctly favorable exchange ratios with the SK government stating all the while that they have no intention of heading north.

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                • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                  And China would end up paying real money to rebuild North Korea like the US did to Iraq. China doesn't want to do that. Neither does South Korea.
                  The Col is absolutely right. Costs for rebuilding NK would be staggering:

                  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7710001.html

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                  • Originally posted by citanon View Post
                    Sir, that situation would be even more convenient for SK. if. NK is not engaging in a full scale bombardment of Seoul but just an artillery exchange on SK military positions the SK can degrade NK artillery with distinctly favorable exchange ratios with the SK government stating all the while that they have no intention of heading north.
                    And how would the NKs know not to fire anything and everything? This is an attack to destroy NK's nuclear capabilities. Included in that is the National Command Authority. You can be sure that communications between the DMZ and KJU would be intermitten at best.

                    Also, look at it from the NK's DMZ position. They're set up for offence, not defence, meaning, all their LOCs are facilitated to move troops forward which in turn means, ready made axis of advance for the SKs. In addition, the force density ratio extremely favours the SKs. The ROKA is like a coiled cobra; all tensed up ready to spring forward. Meaning that the front line NK units could disappear within hours. Are you suggesting that the local NK commanders would not be panicing?

                    Combat is extremely chaotic and confusing. To suggest that while we degrade KJU's National Command Authority and he still maintained disciplined control of the DMZ is just wishful thinking. When the DMZ erupts, the ROKA marches north. There is no other option.
                    Chimo

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                    • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                      The SKs don't have a choice but to inherit it. In the end, they're family.
                      Yep, family. Now with SK on the move in the world economy, particularly electronics and now an improving automotive, how would they feel about slowing that down (how much I don't know) in order to spend big bucks on the North. Or, would it be in their interest to simply keep their crazy uncle in a closet under a mild sedative. Just enough that he can't fall out of bed hurting himself but can still rant once in awhile.

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                      • I don't know and I don't think neither does Seoul.
                        Chimo

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                        • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                          I don't know and I don't think neither does Seoul.
                          Seoul doesn't want a war. They want a modus vivendi. This Trump Kim meeting idea was floated by them as a sop to temporarily keep the Americans from trying anything drastic.

                          There will be a meet up between north & south in April. After that it remains to be seen if a Trump meetup happens.

                          The original Chinese Idea was for Kim to open up gradually and liberalise like China did. That idea was floated over ten years ago but the father wasn't interested. Maybe the son is but hasn't shown any interest as yet.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Mar 18,, 00:40.

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                          • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                            And how would the NKs know not to fire anything and everything? This is an attack to destroy NK's nuclear capabilities. Included in that is the National Command Authority. You can be sure that communications between the DMZ and KJU would be intermitten at best.

                            Also, look at it from the NK's DMZ position. They're set up for offence, not defence, meaning, all their LOCs are facilitated to move troops forward which in turn means, ready made axis of advance for the SKs. In addition, the force density ratio extremely favours the SKs. The ROKA is like a coiled cobra; all tensed up ready to spring forward. Meaning that the front line NK units could disappear within hours. Are you suggesting that the local NK commanders would not be panicing?

                            Combat is extremely chaotic and confusing. To suggest that while we degrade KJU's National Command Authority and he still maintained disciplined control of the DMZ is just wishful thinking. When the DMZ erupts, the ROKA marches north. There is no other option.
                            Sir, I see your point. However, can we not avoid degrading the NCA while we attack the weapons infrastructure?

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                            • Originally posted by citanon View Post
                              Sir, I see your point. However, can we not avoid degrading the NCA while we attack the weapons infrastructure?
                              Those two goals are one and the same. You cannot do one without the other. You either go all-in or not at all.
                              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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                              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                                Those two goals are one and the same. You cannot do one without the other. You either go all-in or not at all.
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                                Chimo

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