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The Korean Dilemma
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostTrump has nothing to lose while Kim will lose face if he gets nothing. Kim can lie all he wants but if the result is an increase of American military activity, then he lost. More than that, here is a chance that he could reduce tensions in the penisula and if he pissed it away, then the Chinese would be more incline to punish him further.
Trump has nothing to lose by pissing Kim off while Kim needs a deal to please the Chinese.Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostOr Kim keeps his nukes in component form, allowing the fiction that he doesn't have nukes anymore.Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostI say isolating Kim even more from the Chinese to the point where Washington and Beijing will start discussing how to occupy North Korea and who's going to pay for it. Don't kid yourself about this. Trump is looking to embarrass Kim and he's going to do it.
Three comments to reflect onLast edited by Double Edge; 12 Mar 18,, 19:40.
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He could have used a better choice of words on the bolded bit. Continue to allow us, as if permission must be sought?
Pompeo: U.S. making 'no concessions' to North Korea
CIA Director Mike Pompeo says the U.S. won't be making any "concessions" to North Korea ahead of any talks with President Donald Trump.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un must "continue to allow us to perform our military-necessary exercises on the peninsula, and then he’s got to make sure that he leaves on the table that discussion for denuclearization,” Pompeo said on “Fox News Sunday.”
“These are real achievements,” he added. “These are conditions that the North Korean regime has never submitted to in exchange for conversations.”
Any discussions between Trump and Kim will “play out over time,” Pompeo said, but the first negotiations would likely set the tone for what arrangements will be deemed acceptable.
“Make no mistake about it,” he said. “While these negotiations are going on, there will be no concessions made.”
In the meantime, Pompeo said, the U.S. will continue to take steps to disrupt the North Korean economy and pressure the regime.
“Those [efforts] will continue," he added, "and we will see how the talks and negotiation proceed."Last edited by Ironduke; 11 Mar 18,, 17:13."Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."
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A decent summary of the reasons why some might feel this 'summit' this unwise by Tom Nichols:
The summit looks like sheer impulse from a president frustrated that nuclear diplomacy is more complicated than running a hotel or a golf course.
President Trump’s decision to participate in a summit with North Korean despot Kim Jong Un is a dangerous idea. If it works, and Trump actually succeeds in beginning the denuclearization of North Korea, he will be far worthier of the Nobel Peace Prize than Barack Obama ever was. The chances of this are roughly zero, but it’s not impossible. More likely is that this will all end in diplomatic disaster.
Before thinking about all the ways this summit could go wrong, the president’s critics owe it to him to try to consider the few ways it could go right. At the least, this decision forestalls war for the moment. Another day of peace on the Korean Peninsula is a worthy goal and a far better approach than the childish taunts that have characterized the president’s approach so far.
Denuclearization is almost certain to fall off the table quickly, but one positive outcome would be if North Korea tries a bait-and-switch, in which they backtrack from denuclearization but agree to halt, indefinitely, all testing and production of an intercontinental ballistic missile in exchange for sanctions relief. If the president manages even this much, his gamble might pay off, at least for a while.
Most likely, however, is that the White House is about to walk right into a trap the North Koreans have been laying for American presidents since the 1990s. A one-on-one summit between a U.S. president and one of the world’s weirdest and most irresponsible leaders would be a huge reward for a regime that has long chided other rogues and dictators for their weakness in dealing with the United States.
Such a meeting would legitimize not only Kim’s regime but also his methods. No matter how the White House spins it, the North Koreans will claim a huge victory in getting Trump to bend to their will.
This isn’t to say that direct meetings are not a good idea. Sanctions are biting deeply in North Korea, and China is clearly fed up with its bizarre ally. Even so, a summit should be a reward for months, even years, of careful work and actual progress. Meetings at lower levels should progress to more senior principals, and then to the heads of state.
Instead, we have yet another decision, much like the recent and incoherent announcement of tariffs, that looks like sheer impulse from a commander in chief who seems frustrated that his advisers keep telling him that nuclear diplomacy is more complicated than running a hotel or a golf course.
Worse yet, the short run-up for a meeting in May — And why the hurry? — means that this will be a summit without an agenda and with no time to devise one, which always increases the chances of a diplomatic train wreck. There is no evidence that this move was given any kind of serious analysis by military or diplomatic advisers. The Pentagon seems to be in the dark, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made clear just hours before the announcement that no such meeting was even on the horizon.
Given North Korea’s track record, here is what is more likely to happen. Kim and Trump will meet, and Kim’s regime will reap hours of footage of an American president shaking the hand of the "supreme leader" that will run forever in North Korea and go viral around the world. Kim will play the gracious host and agree to everything, knowing that this kind of flattery will trigger a torrent of praise from Trump and perhaps even elicit reckless talk about lifting sanctions. (The North Koreans will surely have done their homework on the president’s psyche, which is on display all day, every day, on social media.)
After the summit, Pyongyang will then dig in on further negotiations. When those talks fail, Kim will blame Trump, leaving the president bewildered and angry. Trump will go back to his insulting ways, which will pave the way for Kim to exit any preliminary agreements. The whole business will fall apart, and North Korea will look like the sure winner: the co-equal of a U.S. president who has been humbled in front of America’s allies and embarrassed in front of its enemies. The unveiling of a functional, nuclear-armed North Korean ICBM will follow.
I hope I’m wrong. Talking to the North Koreans is certainly a far better idea than war. Trump and Kim could surprise us all and begin the process of removing nuclear weapons from North Korea. But it’s far too early to think about any calls to Oslo just yet.
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The summit looks like sheer impulse from a president frustrated that nuclear diplomacy is more complicated than running a hotel or a golf course.
More likely is that this will all end in diplomatic disaster.
President Trump’s decision to participate in a summit with North Korean despot Kim Jong Un is a dangerous idea.
Most likely, however, is that the White House is about to walk right into a trap the North Koreans have been laying for American presidents since the 1990s.
Given North Korea’s track record, here is what is more likely to happen. Kim and Trump will meet, and Kim’s regime will reap hours of footage of an American president shaking the hand of the "supreme leader" that will run forever in North Korea and go viral around the world. Kim will play the gracious host and agree to everything, knowing that this kind of flattery will trigger a torrent of praise from Trump and perhaps even elicit reckless talk about lifting sanctions. (The North Koreans will surely have done their homework on the president’s psyche, which is on display all day, every day, on social media.)
After the summit, Pyongyang will then dig in on further negotiations. When those talks fail, Kim will blame Trump, leaving the president bewildered and angry. Trump will go back to his insulting ways, which will pave the way for Kim to exit any preliminary agreements. The whole business will fall apart, and North Korea will look like the sure winner: the co-equal of a U.S. president who has been humbled in front of America’s allies and embarrassed in front of its enemies. The unveiling of a functional, nuclear-armed North Korean ICBM will follow.“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by snapper View PostA decent summary of the reasons why some might feel this 'summit' this unwise by Tom Nichols:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...umn/409792002/
If he's going to meet up and he's always been open to doing so, let him, he's in charge. He's got access to good counsel, he's got a plan. I guess you are not used to seeing the words Trump & positive in the same sentence. That would be blasphemy.
He does not like the foreign policy establishment. They resent that and you read it in their writings. Playing the shrink isn't their expertise.Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Mar 18,, 14:20.
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There are things to be considered. Trump is no clown despite his antics. He's getting his Wall, his Parade, and he instituted a bump stock ban without going to Congress. He pressured the Chinese and publically called them out (embarrassing them) for cheating on North Korean embargo. He's made of tougher teflon than Bill Clinton and not only shrugged off Stormy Daniels and Grab them by the pussy, they don't even phase him.
I would even go as far as suggesting that America has become tougher because of him; that now the Americans are learning to shrug off the unimportant things. The Dow going down because of his words. That's only for the rich who has the money to play with such things. It is his signature that counts and Trump learned long ago that he's extremely careful what he signs. He has no problem not honouring a verbal agreement and that's because both sides won't put it on paper.
As for Trump and Kim, Trump got the better propaganda team. Kim is a friggin amateur when it comes to PR. The only people who will believe him is the North Koreans. Kim doubling down and blaming Trump? He doesn't got the smarts. You're talking about a guy who embarrassed the Chinese when they tried to cheat on the sanctions.Chimo
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Trump is no clown despite his antics. He's getting his Wall, his Parade, and he instituted a bump stock ban without going to Congress.
he hasn't shown any ability at all in terms of negotiation in an arena where he doesn't hold all the cards, because he listens to the last people to talk to him.
so again, what's the bottom-line in this round of negotiation? at BEST, we get a fake pretense of de-nuclearization, ie a process that will be rather worse than the Iran treaty (through no fault of Trump's own, because the NK nuke program was more advanced to begin with). in short, a return to the immediate pre-kim jong un era, NOT to the late 90s inspection regime. we stop the saber-rattling, but not the saber.
and that's the -best- case scenario.Last edited by astralis; 12 Mar 18,, 16:57.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostThere are things to be considered. Trump is no clown despite his antics. He's getting his Wall, his Parade, and he instituted a bump stock ban without going to Congress
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostHe pressured the Chinese and publically called them out (embarrassing them) for cheating on North Korean embargo.
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostHe's made of tougher teflon than Bill Clinton and not only shrugged off Stormy Daniels and Grab them by the pussy, they don't even phase him.
The Dow going down because of his words. That's only for the rich who has the money to play with such things.
It's also going down because of his actions, a protective tariff that actually hurts the US economy by any measuring stick. His own top economic advisor resigned, almost certainly because of his words.
Also, the stock market is not merely for the rich. It's also for people who have, for example, a 401(k) retirement plan, like myself. I am certainly not rich.
It's also for working-class people like those I work with that invest additional money into stocks. They are not even close to being rich.Last edited by TopHatter; 12 Mar 18,, 17:09.“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by TopHatter View PostSir, he's a clown. A buffoon. A child. He's getting those things you mentioned because he's the President. Actually, he might be getting his Wall and he might be getting his Parade, or at least some of it. But the salient point here is that, as President, he can get certain things by virtue of the Office that he holds. Nothing more.
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostBut what did that do? What was the enduring effect?
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostHe's a narcissistic sociopath. Literally nothing except affronts to his ego faze him and then he reacts like a spoiled petulant child.
The Dow going down because of his words. That's only for the rich who has the money to play with such things.
It's also going down because of his actions, a protective tariff that actually hurts the US economy by any measuring stick. His own top economic advisor resigned, almost certainly because of his words.
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostAlso, the stock market is not merely for the rich. It's also for people who have, for example, a 401(k) retirement plan, like myself. I am certainly not rich.
It's also for working-class people like those I work with that invest additional money into stocks. They are not even close to being rich.
For better or worst, Americans are learning to ignore hot air.Chimo
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Originally posted by astralis View Postso again, what's the bottom-line in this round of negotiation? at BEST, we get a fake pretense of de-nuclearization, ie a process that will be rather worse than the Iran treaty (through no fault of Trump's own, because the NK nuke program was more advanced to begin with). in short, a return to the immediate pre-kim jong un era, NOT to the late 90s inspection regime. we stop the saber-rattling, but not the saber.
and that's the -best- case scenario.Chimo
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Trump is looking to embarrass Kim and he's going to do it.
AFAIK short of Kim literally declaring war on China, Xi will just grit his teeth and live with it...because that's precisely what Xi's been doing anyway. (well, i suppose there's that spare Kim uncle who was supposed to be friendly to China...ended up with one dead spare Kim uncle.)
no one wants to own NK, least of all China. the US can always walk away. China can't.
don't get me wrong, i -like- the pressure campaign. it inflicts pain on NK. but i doubt the pressure campaign will inflict the type of pain that will cause NK to fold. if NK survived the 1994 famine it'll survive now. same thing with the Kims.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostI say isolating Kim even more from the Chinese to the point where Washington and Beijing will start discussing how to occupy North Korea and who's going to pay for it. Don't kid yourself about this. Trump is looking to embarrass Kim and he's going to do it.
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostFrom outside of the US, he seems to be delivering on what he promising, including the bump stock ban.
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostThe immediate effect is the complete embargo of all fossil fuel trade to North Korea and the freighter to freighter trade in international waters is effectively closed for North Korea.
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostMost certainly and the Americans have learned to shrug it off until he signed on the dotted line. The one thing about this President is that he's not afraid to let people go, meaning he's beholden to no one. If you want to go, go. It only means to him that you did not have the guts to stick it out when things don't go your way. When things don't go Trump's way, he will bully his way until he does. Note how Canada and Mexico are desperate to keep NAFTA going.
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostUnless your portfilio is over-valued, you should not panic. Actually, you should never panic. Things will take momentary dives here and there, this is one of them. Until Trump signs on the dotted line (and that's the only thing that matters), it is never more than hot air.
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostFor better or worst, Americans are learning to ignore hot air.“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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