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The Korean Dilemma

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  • I don't think there will be any meeting. Remember, and this I heard early this morning, was that Kim was ready to take concrete steps to denuclearize the North. Some said it was a promise. I couldn't find anything like that coming out of Kim's mouth. Seems it was out of some South Korean official. I thought no way in hell he is giving up his weapons. Not now, not ever.

    A moment ago it seems the talk of a meeting has been walked back as now it is said Trump won't meet unless verifiable concrete steps are taken to denuclearize. First, can't be done in any kind of a short period of time. Two, my thoughts of no way in hell from above. Three, it is all publicity. Each leader would love a photo op for their own particular purposes.

    Anyway May is a long ways off and all kinds of posturing is possible and I'm sure there is going to be some as each tries to set the agenda. Although Kim placed the first bet and Trump either had to call or fold. Either way Trump is not in the cat bird seat on this deal.
    Last edited by tbm3fan; 09 Mar 18,, 23:50.

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    • From Foreign Policy mag:

      Nixon Goes to McDonaldland
      It’s like Richard Nixon going to China, but if Nixon was a moron.

      By now, you’ve heard that Donald Trump is meeting with Kim Jong Un by May. You’ve probably also seen the White House walking it back. And then, anonymously, walking it forward again. Things are crazy. Let’s try to sort through them all.

      North Korea has been desperate for a state-visit from a sitting U.S. president since at least the Clinton administration. White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders has said that the United States has not made any concessions, but let’s be clear: THE MEETING IS THE CONCESSION.

      Although President Trump seems to be under the impression that the meeting would be to discuss the elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, the North Koreans haven’t said anything remotely like that.

      In fact, all we have from the North Koreans is the secondhand account of a South Korean diplomat of his boozy dinner with Kim Jong Un and an email sent by the North Korean ambassador to the United Nations to Anna Fifield at the Washington Post.

      What Kim said, according to the South Korean envoy Chung Eui-yong, was pretty thin gruel: that North Korea would not need nuclear weapons if “military threats towards the North are cleared and the security of its regime is guaranteed.” The email to Fifield didn’t seem to mention it at all, merely offering to explain North Korea’s position to the United States.

      In other words, Trump seems to have thought that Kim would meet to give up his nuclear weapons. But for Kim the meeting is about being treated as an equal because of his nuclear and missile programs. After all, Saddam Hussein abandoned his weapons and was invaded and hanged. Muammar al-Qaddafi abandoned his and was toppled with the help of American airpower and dragged out of his SUV to a grisly death. Kim Jong Un, by contrast, kept his programs and now is on the verge of a state visit.

      The Trump administration now seems to realize this. And so, despite the president personally teasing the announcement, the White House is now saying that no meeting will occur until North Korea takes “concrete steps” toward denuclearizing — a restatement of its previous position.

      So, what’s happening? I suspect we are seeing the downside of both the denuding of State Department expertise and the curious way in which staff Trump’s staff handles him: like a toddler, in Dan Drezner’s famous characterization.

      It seems that none of Trump’s aides told him the invitation was nothing special — that North Korea desperately wanted such a visit for more than 20 years. Nor did his staff consider the possibility that North Korea wasn’t offering to abandon its nuclear weapons programs. Maybe none of them realized that.

      But perhaps there is a darker reason. Maybe the staff are terrified. We’ve read stories that, on the Iran deal, the goal, among experts in the administration, was to distract the president. Maybe the staff is generally afraid that Trump is going to do something insane on North Korea and latched on to this opportunity to shift the president’s focus from fire and fury to cheeseburger summits. That’s what we’re all doing on the outside — looking at this mess and thinking, well, it’s crazy but it beats the alternative.
      More here: http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/09/...-mcdonaldland/
      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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      • IF they meet my betting is on that unfinished for ten yrs hotel becoming a Trump franchise. Trumpkin will come out saying how great he was treated and what "Gentleman" Kim is etc... because the murdering dictator has played up to his ego and bank balance. That is Trumpkin's 'bottom line' in Americanese. Nothing else matters. Kim has probably worked out the blindingly obvious already. There can be no defence of this moronic traitor President that holds water. He must not be allowed to meet Kim.
        Last edited by snapper; 10 Mar 18,, 01:36.

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        • Everything you wrote is wrong. NK is worthless realestate that a businessman like Trump can see right through. Kim has no money to bribe Trump. Trump is no traitor and the decision is Trump's, not yours, to meet Kim.
          Chimo

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          • I also love how soft minded that moron who write the opinion piece in foreign policy is.

            it doesn't matter what KJU thinks the negotiations will be about. Trump is there to negotiate NK denuclearization. and if he doesn't get what he wants, he might well implement the hard measures that the FP guy is pissing his pants about.

            No one knows what Trump will actually do. Not NK. Not SK. That's what makes him effective.

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            • Originally posted by citanon View Post
              No one knows what Trump will actually do.
              Well then it should be a surprise to everyone including him as I don't think he even knows.

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              • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                Well then it should be a surprise to everyone including him as I don't think he even knows.
                That's exactly the mentality you need to have going into a negotiation.

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                • Originally posted by citanon View Post
                  I also love how soft minded that moron who write the opinion piece in foreign policy is.

                  it doesn't matter what KJU thinks the negotiations will be about. Trump is there to negotiate NK denuclearization. and if he doesn't get what he wants, he might well implement the hard measures that the FP guy is pissing his pants about.

                  No one knows what Trump will actually do. Not NK. Not SK. That's what makes him effective.
                  That soft-minded moron has the following credentials:
                  Jeffrey Lewis is director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

                  and ... yours?
                  Trust me?
                  I'm an economist!

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                  • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                    That soft-minded moron has the following credentials:
                    Jeffrey Lewis is director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

                    and ... yours?
                    My credential is that I'm not a soft minded moron.

                    If credentials are so important to you, why would you trust the judgement of a guy with a string of modestly meaningful academic titles when he questions the judgement of the President of the United States? Or do you suddenly feel the urge to focus on content again?
                    Last edited by citanon; 10 Mar 18,, 12:14.

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                    • Originally posted by citanon View Post
                      Trump is there to negotiate NK denuclearization. and if he doesn't get what he wants, he might well implement the hard measures that the FP guy is pissing his pants about.
                      Argument is Trump shouldn't go unless its clear what he can get. Send somebody junior and thrash out the details.

                      Having said that i've noted Trump has on several occasions been willing to meet with KJU. He's never said he won't meet him. What gets people uptight is a meeting with no deliverables gives KJU a PR win.

                      FP's no friend of Trump, a good example of rambunctious American media. Their podcasts are hilarious especially when David Rothkopf used to lead them. He mentioning his mother throwing shoes at the TV screaming you bastard when Trump won : D
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Mar 18,, 12:48.

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                      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        Argument is Trump shouldn't go unless its clear what he can get. Send somebody junior and thrash out the details.

                        Having said that i've noted Trump has on several occasions been willing to meet with KJU. He's never said he won't meet him. What gets people uptight is a meeting with no deliverables gives KJU a PR win.
                        I think the problem with sending in junior people is the timeline. We ar running out of time. Any more posturing and NK will have a reentry warhead for their ICBM.

                        We don't have beyond May.

                        Trump genuinely wants peace but also genuinely finds the idea of a NK ability to strike the US homeland intolerable.

                        KJU is still hoping to draw things out for a linear boiling frog style transition into nuclear power status. By going himself Trump forces a discontinuous decision point. its yay or nay for last best chance for peace. If kju draws out the posturing further things will rapidly come to a head, and since no more sanctions to ratchet up, implications pretty self evident.
                        Last edited by citanon; 10 Mar 18,, 13:55.

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                        • Originally posted by citanon View Post
                          I think the problem with sending in junior people is the timeline. We ar running out of time. Any more posturing and NK will have a reentry warhead for their ICBM.

                          We don't have beyond May.
                          What indications do you have they will have a reentry warhead by May ? Or do you assume that is what the next test, delayed so far will prove if successful.

                          Trump genuinely wants peace but also genuinely finds the idea of a NK ability to strike the US homeland intolerable.
                          Are SK & Japan on board for an attack if all else fails ?


                          Originally posted by citanon View Post
                          KJU is still hoping to draw things out for a linear boiling frog style transition into nuclear power status. By going himself Trump forces a discontinuous decision point. its yay or nay for last best chance for peace.
                          They won't de-nuclearise even if he grabs KJU by the collar and says do it now or i get back on the plane

                          If kju draws out the posturing further things will rapidly come to a head, and since no more sanctions to ratchet up, implications pretty self evident.
                          How about a peace treaty ? US tacitly accepts that NK can hit the US.

                          Otherwise he comes back with nothing and US has nothing more to offer.

                          2019 is worse than 2017

                          The problem with a visit by a US president without anything negotiated beforehand as previous presidents notably Clinton did is

                          the NK the president visits is the NK you buy forever

                          Do you accept this line?

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                          • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                            That soft-minded moron has the following credentials:
                            Jeffrey Lewis is director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

                            and ... yours?
                            I used to follow Dr Lewis when he was in charge ARMSCONTROLWONK. With the Korean scenario, I since learned that he doesn't know anything more than the rest of us. Five years ago, he stated that Kim had a thermonuke that can fit on a rocket and that he had 5-6 of them. This last test was boosted fission. We can tell by the dual explosive sesmic readings. Since then, I went back over his past papers and they relied as heavily on open source intel as we do. I am now skepticle of any of his unsubstantituated claims.

                            As for Trump, Cowboy Diplomacy comes to mind. You remember that one? Reagan pissed off Gorhachev. Then, they got the INF Treaty going. You know that one? An entire class of missiles with their nuclear warheads was eliminated from Europe.
                            Chimo

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                            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                              Argument is Trump shouldn't go unless its clear what he can get. Send somebody junior and thrash out the details.
                              Reagan-Gorbachev's Walk with only translators and no advisors. Both men hashed out the basis of the INF Treaty without any pre-arrangements by lower level officials.
                              Chimo

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                              • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                                As for Trump, Cowboy Diplomacy comes to mind. You remember that one? Reagan pissed off Gorhachev. Then, they got the INF Treaty going. You know that one? An entire class of missiles with their nuclear warheads was eliminated from Europe.
                                I'm not seeing how the analogy is applicable to this case. The Soviets removed a class of medium-range missiles from client states while still having enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world 10x over, whereas with Kim the goal is complete denuclearization. The Soviets could also be considered a rational actor, an appellation I don't think can be applied to Kim.

                                Is there something I'm not seeing?

                                Yeah, sure, every other approach has failed. Maybe meeting with Kim is worth a try, maybe it's not, but any new approach is going to fail as well. The best that will be able to be said afterward is "hey, we failed, but at least we tried", just like before.
                                "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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