The Korean Dilemma

[Double Edge]

South appears determined to defuse this crisis

South Korea and North Korea to hold working-level talks on Jan. 15 | Reuters | Jan 13 2018

[Gun Grape]

They legally can't right now

Yes they can. Since 2015 they can participate in "collective self defense for allies"

Heres a link

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_J...ry_legislation

[Double Edge]

I look at that poll and see 'Strategic Patience' is leading. How long is this patience to go on

What is the time frame where North korea will be able to credibly threaten the US and say if you intervene you decide whether San Francisco or New York goes up or trade Seoul & Tokyo in exchange

Accepting Nk as a nuclear state because it is inevitable seems to be the constant refrain i hear from local commentators.

[cataphract]

North Korean shipping may be blockaded:

https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/38...ips-to-allies/

This would fall into the Strategic Patience category.

[Double Edge]

A quick google shown that the 38 and 39 GAs are on wartime footing and refugee camps are being prepped. An unhinged Trump bent on war against Kim is not bringing much laughter in both Beijing and Moscow.

They have been drilling jointly to defend from an unspecified source

Chinese border province publishing full page article on what to do in case of a nuke attack. When people get alarmed, they are reminded its for public education

Hawaii has been testing their missile alert system since a month and had a false alarm a few days back

The GT "between now and March" op-ed a month ago saying China should be psychologically prepared

Don't trust China and prepare for war says NK

Training to fight in tunnels

The pressure is building up

[Sam]

The sub-surface training is indeed gaining more attention. The Army published a new manual on just the same this fall.

[Ironduke]

Just breaking now:

Kim Jong Un meeting South Korean officials in Pyongyang, Seoul says

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un is meeting with a high-ranking South Korean delegation in Pyongyang Monday, according to a South Korean government official.

It's believed to be the first time the young leader has spoken face-to-face with officials from the South since he took power in 2011. Among those Kim is meeting with are South Korea's National Security Chief, Chung Eui-yong, and the country's spy chief, Suh Hoon.

Their trip north is part of South Korean President Moon Jae-in's attempt to broker a diplomatic solution to North Korea's nuclear weapons program in the wake of the thaw brought about by North Korea's attendance at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics last month.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/05/asia/...ntl/index.html

[Sam]

An interesting piece in the Economist from January. I took note of the argument that the Norks do not need nukes for continued survival, as they have not needed them, to date, for survival. Indeed, their pursuit of nukes seems to me something that will only accelerate their demise.

[Ironduke]

It's being reported now that Trump will meet with Kim Jong-Un in May to discuss de-nuclearizaton.

[Ironduke]

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has invited President Trump to a meeting

TOKYO — North Korea’s belligerent leader, Kim Jong Un, has asked President Trump for talks and Trump has agreed to meet him “by May,” South Korea’s national security adviser said at the White House Thursday after delivering the invitation to the American president.

Kim has also committed to stopping nuclear and missile testing, even during joint military drills in South Korea next month, Chung Eui-yong told reporters in Washington.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...815_story.html

[Double Edge]

It's being reported now that Trump will meet with Kim Jong-Un in May to discuss de-nuclearizaton.

Ah yes the famous have a hamburger meet up

[Skywatcher]

The bad side: You can't trust the Norks to keep any promises they make.

Plus: Things will probably stay peaceful until May-June, and John Bolton is probably throwing a rage fit right now.

[Double Edge]

Playing for time

[snapper]

I would personally advise against Trumkin meeting the Kim dictator. Firstly I very much doubt the North Koreans have any intention of "denuclearising"; what assurances of this are there? None. He had supper with some South Koreans... was apparently polite and self depreciating but that is not an assurance and still less a guarantee. Sure the Chinese have cut some trade but tin pot Dictators do not give a damn about their people - they kill them anyway when they have a paranoia fit. So no I cannot believe he is sincere in his 'denuclearisation'; just the same as his Father wasn't when he did a deal with the Clinton administration and Clinton proclaimed a version of "Peace in our time" that proved as worthless as Chamberlains.

Trump, it is said, is known for his ability to 'make deals'. This honestly is BS. Trump is a publicist - a self publicist mostly because he is a narcissistic egotist. That is all he is good at; making headlines on the basis that 'all publicity is good publicity' and because it feeds his egotistical need for attention. He has only broken deals others made since he became President - TPP etc - and by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum forced other deals to be broken. Most of 'his hotels' are mere licensing agreements and quite a few of them funded with dirty money; in short he is a self publicising enabler for those who wish launder dirty money. Not some 'great negotiator' which takes a broad strategy at the outset then much patience and attention to detail. Negotiating a complicated deal would frankly be beyond the man-child so though he may think he is 'so great' and all that BS and that Kim will just fall over and they will get on soo well - and doubtless he will claim they did - he is never going to charm or negotiate with Kim to 'denuclearise'.

That means it is all win for Kim - and a bad example for others such as Iran. Kim gets to showboat "international statesman" and legitimise his illegitimate dictatorship with all it's torture and murder and do sod all about his nuclear weapons. It is like offering Moscow a free 'reset'. The North Koreans must be laughing as I know the Moskals were then.

I really do hope I am wrong but to me no US President should even consider meeting Kim; send someone fine but you do not legitimise (or compliment Chinese 'President's for life') tin pot dictators and murderers by meeting them personally and causing a major news splash for their benefit - which is probably all Trumpkin wants. If they want to talk fine; speak to my guy Joe Bloggs. I predict absolutely zilch comes of this.

[Skywatcher]

Honestly, Trump taking the meeting is the least worst of a herd of very bad options.

A worrying sign though, is that apparently Mattis, Tillerson et al were only informed a few hours (at most) of the decision to take a meeting (no sitting President has ever meet with the Kims before).