The Korean Dilemma

[Double Edge]

Trump says he has no choice but to deal with North Korean nukes & missiles.

So this sets the mood

For what though ?

A war or another round of shouting

If its a war we have to assume China will be taking NK's side.

Not kim's side but NK will remain NK

How will contingency plans for China look like in that case

[citanon]

Some more interesting developments:

https://youtu.be/JXTder8UZUc

[SteveDaPirate]

Trump says he has no choice but to deal with North Korean nukes & missiles.

So this sets the mood

For what though ?

A war or another round of shouting

If its a war we have to assume China will be taking NK's side.

Not kim's side but NK will remain NK

How will contingency plans for China look like in that case

In the last month, two Iranian ballistic missiles have been fired from Yemen at Riyadh, one of which landed less than 1 km from the international airport. What has been Trump's response to this blatant attack on an important American ally's capital? America's firm handed response consisted of Nikki Haley holding a press conference in front of missile debris...

If Iran, who doesn't even have nukes can get away with this behavior I don't think lil' Kim has much to worry about at the moment.

[Double Edge]

In the last month, two Iranian ballistic missiles have been fired from Yemen at Riyadh, one of which landed less than 1 km from the international airport. What has been Trump's response to this blatant attack on an important American ally's capital? America's firm handed response consisted of Nikki Haley holding a press conference in front of missile debris...

If Iran, who doesn't even have nukes can get away with this behavior I don't think lil' Kim has much to worry about at the moment.

This is drum rolling. We wait to see what he will do

Was listening to a podcast on that missile strike and turns out the saudi interceptor missiles missed. Oops.

[Oracle]

It sure looks like China is secretly selling oil to North Korea

[DOR]

It sure looks like China is secretly selling oil to North Korea

Related China-DPRK sotry: Here's Bill Gertz's "secret document" -- which he alone was able to find.
Me thinks he was duped.

http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/upl...Document-1.pdf

[Double Edge]

http://freebeacon.com/national-secur...d-north-korea/

They use fancy paper for taking minutes : )

Spoiler!

Pg1
Top secret
Chinese Communist Party General Office documents
In the Office of the [2017] No. 94
About the CPC Central Committee General Office
My country and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

To further deepen the solution to the country's nuclear issue

Decision on communication and coordination
Zhonglianbu:

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as North Korea) is not only our country

To resist the major military buffer areas from hostile western forces and to lead our party

With regard to the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, North Korea's important political and strategic location is irreplaceable.

For this reason, our party and our country must defend at all costs, North Korea's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and earnestly safeguard the stability and continuity of the North Korean regime

We must unswervingly uphold the position of resolutely safeguarding peace in the Korean Peninsula. In view of the DPRK's reign once again, the Board did its utmost to carry out the first step without seeking the advice of our side

Pg.2

Six underground nuclear tests have had a significant negative impact on the international community and therefore, the National Security Council is on the ground to further punish and isolate the North Korean ruling party

UN Security Council 2375 September 11, 2017 was unanimously adopted (hereinafter referred to as the "Resolution"), the "Resolution" modestly enhanced the sanctioning of North Korea's ruling authorities, but also aggravates the suffering of the people and made the situation on the peninsula complex and blurred.

History has shown that similar clauses or resolutions will not and cannot compel North Korea's political authorities to suspend or completely renounce nuclear tests.

On the contrary, the DPRK's governing authorities have benefited by them under the enormous double pressure from its home and abroad, based on its own political security consideration will further strengthen its determination to continue to develop nuclear forces and exacerbate the vicious cycle of the situation in the peninsula.

To resolve North Korea's nuclear issue, follow the instructions of the Central Party Committee and the State Council against North Korea's nuclear issue

Decision-making deployment, as well as the Central Security Committee during the previous meeting to deal with the guiding principle of the DPRK-related issues, after research and demonstration, the CPC Central Committee decided to grant You, the Ministry of lead organization and North Korea's ruling authorities on the nuclear issue

Transfer work, the specific requirements are as follows:
On behalf of the CPC Central Committee, you department should further emphasize to the DPRK side our defense of North Korea

Determination of right to once again clarify and confirm that we made the relevant assurances, at the same time the DPRK side has made 10 specific, in-depth and detailed analyzes on the current situation in the Korean Peninsula.

In exchange for a substantive concession by the DPRK on its nuclear issue, according to the current world power

Pg.3

The pattern of distribution and the geopolitical position of the Korean peninsula in order to prevent North Korea regimes collapse by the United States and the possible hostile forces with the United States led by the West

The emergence of a direct military match-up on the Korean peninsula is bound to happen in some countries, such as China and Russia make all effective means such as diplomatic good offices and military containment and resolutely safeguard North Korea peace and stability of the peninsula, to prevent its "unrest", which is our side and Russia both adhere to the common position. At the same time, consider that if the United States diligently moves for war, with DPRK, it is bound to have a political and economic impact in the Asia Pacific region and even in the world. Causing huge impact, for Japan and South Korea, especially the capital of South Korea

The safety of the area will also be difficult to take into account, and we and Russia and other areas will never allow chaos in the Korean Peninsula

In theory, the western countries headed by the United States adopted the solution to the DPRK nuclear issue. There is no possibility of armed provocations or even overthrow of the present regime in North Korea. However, the DPRK has repeatedly used nuclear tests for international provocation

The tremendous international pressure on our country is constantly overloaded so unbearable. for this shows that as a responsible world power, our country firmly supports the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula

Your position is to uphold the authority of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Treaty signed by you sternly warned the DPRK that it must make further relevant assurances on the DPRK side

There is no immediate need to abandon nuclear weapons immediately as long as they promise not to continue with another Nuclear test and put it into action immediately.

We will immediately step up economic and trade cooperation with the DPRK to support, add or continue trade growth in order to safeguard the DPRK political regime, improve the living standards of North Koreans, sanctioned by foreign aggression

Pg.4


Goods (except those related to nuclear testing explicitly involved) are fully guaranteed within North Korea

On the premise of the need, we only dealt with symbolic punishment or punishment;

Second, according to the provisions of the "Resolution", after the DPRK has established an enterprise in China, we will not limit the DPRK's entrustment of China's qualified trade agency or trade agency with North Korea

The third countries (regions) continue to carry out related trade activities with our country.

Further increase assistance to people's livelihood and infrastructure in North Korea, 2018 The next 5 funds related to the DPRK for the year will increase by one-off 15% from 2017, during the year will be an annual increase of not less than 10% over the previous year.

Fourth, we are concerned with the suspension of all the provisions relating to North Korea's banking business, tt will be limited to state-owned banks directly under the Central Government and some local banks.

Fifth, increase investment in defensive military building in the DPRK. Steps will be put forward by the DPRK for more advanced short-range ballistic missiles, submunitions and other high-end military Science and technology, based on China's stability maintenance experience and in accordance with North Korea's special needs, to help strengthen that state stability

At the same time, your ministry must solemnly warn North Korean authorities that they must be appropriate on the nuclear issue. At present, there is no question that we have forcibly demanded that the DPRK completely and immediately give up its nuclear weapons

Instead, the DPRK is required to exercise restraint and be bound by the coming years. When the pieces mature, they undergo a gradual transitional reform and eventually achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. If North Korea insists on acting in isolation, our country will study further and unilaterally implement special punishment measures against top DPRK leaders and related family members


This matter is related to the peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula, As well as my party, country and all

Pg.5

In the fundamental interests of the Chinese people, you should pay close attention to the joint ministry of foreign affairs and the ministry of commerce

In accordance with the requirements of this decision and the relevant spirit, the related work program shall be carefully and carefully formulated,

Ensure the sense of responsibility, strictly do the related confidential work, and conscientiously complete the CPC Central Committee entrusted with the task.

Party City
捗 sly
2017
5 days
CC: General Office of the NPC Standing Committee,
Office of the State Council,
Central Military Commission General Office.
1 CPC Central Committee General Office Secretary
Issued on September 19, 2017

[citanon]

http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2.../?oref=d-river

Write-up of HR McMaster's position on the NK issue and speculation on his reasoning.

[citanon]

Related China-DPRK sotry: Here's Bill Gertz's "secret document" -- which he alone was able to find.
Me thinks he was duped.

http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/upl...Document-1.pdf

China wants to fight engagements of their choosing 7nder circumstances in their favor. NK is a distraction for the belt and road project. I doubt they want to get dragged into war with/ the US during the next decade.

Their response to a Korean blowup will be to contain and mitigate.

Regarding China's priorities for the next 5 years, I'd think the following are amongst the most important:

Build: one belt, one road to form a large regional trading bloc centered on Chinese system to rival and overtake EU and NA.

Change: change the domestic economy from infrastructure, real estate and export dependence to innovation, services, and consumer driven.

Weather: mitigate and withstand the destabilizing effects of daunting and demographic challenges that will become acute in this decade.

Stabilize: repair perceived weaknesses in CPC governance by fighting corruption, strengthening domestic political control, suppressing contrary political opinions and movements, building a new base of nationalist political thought centered on CPC leadership, and strengthening domestic security and legal apparatuses to fight crime, corruption, terrorism, economic instability and political dissent.

Strengthen: increase China's geopolitical influence by strengthening the military and expanding it's footprint beyond China's borders, increase control of the south China seas.

Shine: increase the influence if Chinese soft power world wide by cultural, economic, diplomatic and scientific means.

[DOR]

China wants to fight engagements of their choosing 7nder circumstances in their favor. NK is a distraction for the belt and road project. I doubt they want to get dragged into war with/ the US during the next decade.

Their response to a Korean blowup will be to contain and mitigate.

Regarding China's priorities for the next 5 years, I'd think the following are amongst the most important:

Build: one belt, one road to form a large regional trading bloc centered on Chinese system to rival and overtake EU and NA.

Change: change the domestic economy from infrastructure, real estate and export dependence to innovation, services, and consumer driven.

Weather: mitigate and withstand the destabilizing effects of daunting and demographic challenges that will become acute in this decade.

Stabilize: repair perceived weaknesses in CPC governance by fighting corruption, strengthening domestic political control, suppressing contrary political opinions and movements, building a new base of nationalist political thought centered on CPC leadership, and strengthening domestic security and legal apparatuses to fight crime, corruption, terrorism, economic instability and political dissent.

Strengthen: increase China's geopolitical influence by strengthening the military and expanding it's footprint beyond China's borders, increase control of the south China seas.

Shine: increase the influence if Chinese soft power world wide by cultural, economic, diplomatic and scientific means.

My list of China’s 2018-22 priorities:
1. Keep Xi Jinping in power and all other potential leaders slightly off-guard.
2. Maintain high enough economic growth to ensure jobs for new graduates, but not so high as to generate unacceptable inflation.
3. Ensure national integrity by forcefully opposing any hint of independence sentiment in Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong or Taiwan.
4. Adapt and adjust all other policies so as to support items 1-3 above.

[astralis]

regarding Chinese response to a post-war Korea, i wrote a casual article about this in The Diplomat recently.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/the-...nd-korean-war/

[citanon]

regarding Chinese response to a post-war Korea, i wrote a casual article about this in The Diplomat recently.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/the-...nd-korean-war/

Korea and China can smooth over tensions substantially by allowing extension of the Belt and Road project into former NK. This will depend on actual conditions on the ground if the event comes to pass of course, but I suspect united Korea could offer one of the best prospects for substantial returns on massive infrastructure investments in the 21st century.

[astralis]

This will depend on actual conditions on the ground if the event comes to pass of course, but I suspect united Korea could offer one of the best prospects for substantial returns on massive infrastructure investments in the 21st century.

i think either way, once you get past the initial war stage, there will be an explosion of people coming in trying to make a buck. plenty of US investors would love to get in on that as well. it'd be just about the Wild West, and a significant amount of culture/wealth clash. what i'd be curious about is how Korean views of China may evolve with a sudden injection of all the formerly North Koreans. will Korea be more hawkish against China as a result of feeling that China was one of the reasons that reunification took so long? or are they suddenly going to be besties from the investment opportunities?

probably somewhere in between, but i'd lean more towards hawkish just because over the long-term, a reunified Korea will represent a bigger power/potential threat to China.

[Officer of Engineers]

probably somewhere in between, but i'd lean more towards hawkish just because over the long-term, a reunified Korea will represent a bigger power/potential threat to China.

Eric, you forgot next week's lotto numbers.

[Double Edge]

what i'd be curious about is how Korean views of China may evolve with a sudden injection of all the formerly North Koreans. will Korea be more hawkish against China as a result of feeling that China was one of the reasons that reunification took so long? or are they suddenly going to be besties from the investment opportunities?

probably somewhere in between, but i'd lean more towards hawkish just because over the long-term, a reunified Korea will represent a bigger power/potential threat to China.

Didn't happen with a unified Germany vis a vis Russia or is that a bad example