The Korean Dilemma

[Double Edge]

Though the downside is that there's a pretty good chance North Korea could collapse into anarchy (he's killed off most of anyone who has the authority or legitimacy to make a power bid).

So ?

Can't be worse than a war where more parties are affected

Am thinking of a decapitation strike accompanied with a threat of war unless they settle or something sweeter

Either way the intended goal is denuclearisation and hopefully a path to normalisation with the gates up

Won't happen with Kim in charge

[Skywatcher]

So ?

Can't be worse than a war where more parties are effected

It sounds like it's one of those "which one of the mice will hang the bell on the cat" scenarios. Generally, the governments (and supporting bureaucracies) in Beijing and Seoul didn't get to where they are by taking sudden gambles.

Of course, the longer they procrastinate on the North Korean problem, the worse the inevitable explosion will be.

[citanon]

PLA general Wang Hong Guang: NK artillery will not be effective against Seoul in case war breaks out:

https://mil.sina.cn/2017-04-12/detai....html?from=wap

Chinese source authored by Wang himself. Excellent analysis. Use Google translate.

This was back in Mar. More recently the same guy and other Chinese defense experts have warned at a public conference that the situation is spiralling out of China's control and war could break out at any time from now to March 2018.

Wang advocates increasing defensive military preparations in Jilin (his remarks in Chinese make it clear it's defensive not offensive measures):

http://m.scmp.com/news/china/diploma...ers-urge-china

http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2017-12-16...n1146085.shtml

[Skywatcher]

Wonder if China is going to move its limited ABM assets to the Northeast, if they haven't done so already?

[Double Edge]

http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2017-12-16...n1146085.shtml

Says he's from nanjing military region



Not exactly adjacent to NK

Despite what he says i think a war here is not a viable option

[DOR]

Wang Hongguang … interesting character for a (now retired) PLA general (or, maybe Rear Admiral?).
First, he says (in 2013) that military experts (like himself) are making rash comments that amount to interference in top level decision-making. A few years later, he says the PLA will completely neutralize THAAD if it is deployed in Korea. Then, more recently, he says the DPRK’s artillery wouldn’t do much damage to Seoul.

[citanon]

Wang Hongguang … interesting character for a (now retired) PLA general (or, maybe Rear Admiral?).
First, he says (in 2013) that military experts (like himself) are making rash comments that amount to interference in top level decision-making. A few years later, he says the PLA will completely neutralize THAAD if it is deployed in Korea. Then, more recently, he says the DPRK’s artillery wouldn’t do much damage to Seoul.

He's a retired Lt. Gen. and the former deputy commander of the Nanjing military district.

China's communication strategy is to utilize a combination of consistent statements from official channels and capricious statements from unofficial channels to send a mixed and some times ambiguous or even self-conflicting messages. In that way the thinking of the Chinese leadership continues a tradition going back millenia of valuing deception, ambiguity, and maximizing strategic options. Pretty similar to Trump's strategy actually, except with deeper forethought and more subtlety and refinement supported by a whole of government consensus. Because this is the case the leadership also thinks that this is the case of other governments, particularly the US.

Thus Wang is one distinct voice in a cast of many.

His analysis of the situation on the DMZ, however, is spot on. In a world of 24/7 satellite surveillance going back decades and machine vision static positions cannot hide. I doubt they can even disguise which positions are occupied and which are not. The only limiting rate on the destruction of those NK atillery positions is how many PGMs the US and SK have stockpiled.

I would not be surprised if SK forces are involved in the initial offensive that NK's entire artillery force threatening Seoul would be wiped out within a day. The people saying otherwise are basing their assessments on historical data up to GWI. What they are not saying, whether deliberately (as Wang suggests) or not is that those are now entirely outdated. Kill chains have been shortened an order of magnitude during the GWOT. PGMs and delivery systems are now pervasive and highly cost effective. If you are known, you are dead. The NK positions are all known.

The real threat is their SRBM force and the possibility of those carrying NBC warheads.

[Double Edge]

The real threat is their SRBM force and the possibility of those carrying NBC warheads.

And how to deal with them ?

[citanon]

And how to deal with them ?

That is out of my sphere of knowledge. Wang seems overly dismissive of them. From my POV there are too many things I don't know about and not publicly available that you'd need to accurately assess what the US and SK can and cannot do.

[Double Edge]

So the deal is sometime between now and march the balloon goes up ?

[citanon]

So the deal is sometime between now and march the balloon goes up ?

That's just speculation on their part. They think that there's a distinct possibility. I'd say they are right, of course, that there's a distinct possibility. Doesn't mean it's going to happen though.

[Double Edge]

They think that there's a distinct possibility. I'd say they are right, of course, that there's a distinct possibility.

Any reasons

[citanon]

Any reasons

Trump's national security team decides it's better to take our chances with taking out Kim's nukes now rather than wait.

[Double Edge]

Trump's national security team decides it's better to take our chances with taking out Kim's nukes now rather than wait.

You mean if they decide to do that.. then China should have contingency plans in place

So far I don't see any indications in fact the opposite if you go with Tillerson's statements

Leading me to think no invasion or war. But easier to assasinate Kim

[Officer of Engineers]

I find it hard to imagine Kim The Fat is ready for war. I'm seeing no drills, no prep work, nothing to indicate that he's ready for any military actions. Liquid fuel rockets got to be fueled and there are no drills to do so. The fuel is highly combustible. One mistake and you have a fireball before the rocket is even pointed up. There are certainly no indication that he has mated warheads to the rockets, biochem or nukes. In fact, I've seen no drills that they even got the procedures down for those.