Everything we have discujssed 20 years ago at CDF has not changed. Force density, maneuver room, ROCA redundency, and .50cal ammo is a hell of a lot cheaper than a boat.
I think what has changed since then is the ROCA has since degraded pretty badly:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20...apons-no-ammo/
I am frankly uncertain if there will be a 200K ready force by the time the PLA comes over the fence. I hope so, but end of conscription really hit ROCA hard. the reserve system right now is a bad joke.
on the other hand, PLA style "systems confrontation" warfare is still an acknowledgment that the PLA is still reliant on so-called elite units to paralyze the enemy.
the thing is, 20 years ago a Taiwan invasion was a laughable joke, even if it was the PLA facing off against just Taiwan alone. now, it's potentially possible albeit if EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT for the PLA and they're willing to take gruesome losses.
Edit: Come to think of it, there's no way the Chinese can launch a surprise attack. The US and Taiwan will see this at least 2 weeks in advance before the 1st troop transport can sail east. And it would be ludicrous to assume that Taiwan doesn't have HUMIT in place watching the ports.
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