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  • Everything we have discujssed 20 years ago at CDF has not changed. Force density, maneuver room, ROCA redundency, and .50cal ammo is a hell of a lot cheaper than a boat.
    goddamn, thanks for the reminder. 20 years ago, yikes. hell, CMF before that, and I sure enjoyed you biting through one chew toy after another.

    I think what has changed since then is the ROCA has since degraded pretty badly:

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20...apons-no-ammo/

    I am frankly uncertain if there will be a 200K ready force by the time the PLA comes over the fence. I hope so, but end of conscription really hit ROCA hard. the reserve system right now is a bad joke.

    on the other hand, PLA style "systems confrontation" warfare is still an acknowledgment that the PLA is still reliant on so-called elite units to paralyze the enemy.

    the thing is, 20 years ago a Taiwan invasion was a laughable joke, even if it was the PLA facing off against just Taiwan alone. now, it's potentially possible albeit if EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT for the PLA and they're willing to take gruesome losses.

    Edit: Come to think of it, there's no way the Chinese can launch a surprise attack. The US and Taiwan will see this at least 2 weeks in advance before the 1st troop transport can sail east. And it would be ludicrous to assume that Taiwan doesn't have HUMIT in place watching the ports.
    my guess is that the current "gray zone" stuff aimed at TW is meant to desensitize the watch. they're burning through ROCAF and the Coast Guard right now.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

    Comment


    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
      I think what has changed since then is the ROCA has since degraded pretty badly:
      So the previous and current administrations slashed budgets and forced a re-org. Yeah, I'm guilty of assuming that there are not Taiwanese idiot administrations.

      Originally posted by astralis View Post
      my guess is that the current "gray zone" stuff aimed at TW is meant to desensitize the watch. they're burning through ROCAF and the Coast Guard right now.
      So, Taiwan sends up F-16s to intercept AWACS, ASW, and intel planes. I can see the wear-and-tear. They could have done this much more smartly. Paint them with SAM radars. Could even use obsolete or decoy dishes if you want to hide the sigs.

      Still, this is a polotical clusterfuck wrecking the hell out of the military. You're right, the reserve system is fucked. Don't see things changing until the KMT comes back into power.

      Chimo

      Comment


      • So the previous and current administrations slashed budgets and forced a re-org. Yeah, I'm guilty of assuming that there are not Taiwanese idiot administrations.
        current TW administration is finally upping the defense budget appreciably, but still insufficient. but, they're the first non-idiot administration Taiwan has had in some time.

        the more serious issue for them is that TW senior defense staff are still wedded to prestige items. for instance, they wanna acquire the F-35, which isn't gonna be all that useful to TW if they're blown up on the runway or hiding away in the mountain base.

        Still, this is a polotical clusterfuck wrecking the hell out of the military.
        yeah, there's a good deal of political pressure for the TW military to match the PLAAF/PLAN intercept for intercept, which is dumb.

        you're right, the reserve system is fucked. Don't see things changing until the KMT comes back into power.
        hell no, KMT under Ma Ying-jeou was responsible for the massive cutbacks in TW defense in the first place. Han Guoyu who just got his ass comprehensively kicked was trying to be Duterte and kissing up to PRC, until XJP showed him what happens to even puppets in Hong Kong.

        Johnny Chiang is trying to clean up the party but guess who is opposing him -- Ma Ying-jeou. KMT is not in a good place right now and I have no confidence in their ability to manage TW defense.

        Tsai Ingwen essentially "triangulated" the DPP by turning them from the joke party it was under Chen Shuibian into the serious national-security party...relatively speaking. TW development of "Overall Defense Concept" is the first new thought their defense establishment has had in 50 years.

        bottom-line, though, I think by this time it would be "impressive" for TW if ROCA can mobilize 50K actual fighting troops (from their paper strength of 140K, which includes maintenance, cooks, keyboard warriors). the reserves are so dorked up that if they can mobilize 50K trained troops from that, it'd be impressive.

        their reserves get something like one week of training every two years.
        Last edited by astralis; 25 Mar 21,, 15:10.
        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

        Comment


        • Chinese takes on the quad

          Terms like Asian NATO, mini Asian NATO, quad 2.0 are Chinese.

          Quad 2.0 will not ‘dissipate like sea foam’ | Sunday Guardian | Mar 20 2021

          How has China reacted to the Quad, the summits and how does it wish to mitigate the challenges posed by it?

          Let’s examine some of the views aired by the Chinese scholarship on the Quad.

          1) Most Chinese scholars, including Chen Qinghong, a researcher at China’s Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), argue that the Quad 1.0 “collapsed within a year of its establishment” but since the first meeting of senior officials of the Quad in November 2017, it has gained traction.

          2) The Chinese strategic community, especially since 2017, has been vocal in pronouncing the Quad as anti-China, with the aim to “contain the rise of China”. They are quick to point to the security cooperation between the Quad nations.

          Researchers Chen Qinghong of the CICIR and Zhang Jie of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences refer to

          - the first ever military exercises between the Indian and Japanese air and ground forces in Agra (2018) and Mizoram (2019) respectively,
          - Malabar naval exercise, and
          - signing of a series of logistic support agreements among the Quad as security pacts aimed at “diluting China’s influence” in the region.

          Since Quad 2.0 is more resilient than 1.0, therefore, its future development is bound to have a significant impact on the development and evolution of regional security architecture, argues Chen Qinghong of the CICIR.

          According to Liu A’ming, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, the “upgraded version of Quad has a clearer goal, which is to confront China. This is clearly different from the Quad of ten years ago”. The “Quad signals unity among the four in their foreign policy approaches, which in turn strengthens the leadership of the United States”.

          In fact, “no country in Asia is willing to confront China strategically. They are all tempted and coerced by the United States” according to an op-ed titled “The United States can’t afford to build and even pull the cart of ‘Mini Asian NATO’!” by Huanqiu Shibao on 14 March. According to the op-ed, “the United States has lost its way, and its only remaining sense of strategic direction is how to destroy China”.

          3) “Democratic values” have become the ideological foundation of the Quad. This is the thing perhaps feared by China the most, as it may give rise to an ideological cold war as was witnessed between the US and the Soviet Union.

          According to Liu A’ming, ideology wasn’t at the centre of the debate during Quad 1.0, but has taken precedence in Quad 2.0.

          According to Chen Qinghong, no doubt the Quad is “not going to be an exclusive club” but the expansion will be based on “common values and interests”

          4) Chinese scholars argue that the range of issues under discussion among the Quad countries has expanded into various domains. It is not only limited to

          - the “free and open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP),
          - North Korean nuclear issue and
          - the South China Sea,

          as has been the case during its earlier version, but also include

          - “the importance of good governance in strengthening the rule-based order”;
          - promotion of “openness, transparency, the development of high-quality infrastructure based on international standards”, and
          - coordination with other regional forums such as ASEAN, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) etc.

          This is certainly being looked at as a counter to President Xi Jinping’s project of the century, the “Belt and Road Initiative”

          5) Chinese scholars assert that not only China didn’t become a “western style democracy” but has increasingly defended its maritime rights and sovereignty.

          Some of the “decisive actions,” according to researcher Chen of the CICIR, include

          - a series of countermeasures against Japan’s “nationalisation” of Senkaku in 2012;
          - imposition of Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea in 2013,
          - reclamation of islands and reefs in Spratly in 2014, and
          - thwarting of India’s “infringement in the Doklam” in 2017.

          6) Formation of an “Asian NATO” will be an uphill task, with India the weakest link.

          Although there are academicians in China who believe that Quad will vanish soon, for they argue that China is the largest trading partner of all the four Quad nations. Zhou Bo of the Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS), Tsinghua University, aired such views in a recent debate on the Central Global Television Network (CGTN) of China. Moreover, since the threat perceptions are different, formation of an “Asian version of NATO” is by no means an easy task, argues Zhang Jie.

          India’s intervention in the South China Sea and the East China Sea is mainly limited to the level of diplomacy and public opinion, according to Zhang Jie. In fact, the scholar says that this applies to all the Quad members at this stage, hence the possibility of forming a substantive alliance in the short term is unlikely. However, they also agree that “to some extent, the breadth and depth of Quad’s development depends on India’s attitude” and that Quad will be instrumental in enhancing India’s military strength.

          7) As a way out, the Chinese are banking on their strong trade ties with the ASEAN, and hope that the grouping will not accommodate the Quad. China hopes that the ASEAN will seek a balance between the economic benefits from China and the security provided by the United States.

          Therefore, “maintaining economic influence and limiting conflicts within a controllable range” has been stated as one of the goals of China’s diplomacy. Zhang Jie recommends that

          - China must manage well strategic competition with the US,
          - avoid challenging the existing interest structure at global level excessively,
          - circumvent the balancing tendencies of small and medium-sized countries at the regional level, and
          - avoid the formation of military and economic bloc confrontation in the region.

          As for India and Japan, China believes it should be able to strengthen normal relations with both countries, for strategic confrontation with China is considered as “an unbearable burden” for both of them.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Mar 21,, 19:45.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by astralis View Post
            bottom-line, though, I think by this time it would be "impressive" for TW if ROCA can mobilize 50K actual fighting troops (from their paper strength of 140K, which includes maintenance, cooks, keyboard warriors)
            I can easily see 100K to 200K infantry easy. There are still of a lot of old timers from before the clusterfuck. The advantage here is that they're static, not maneuver troops. Put them in the trench or pill box and order them to shoot whatever is in front of them. Guns, armour, engineers, and log are the mess ups. Channeling the PLA into KZs would be extremely probamatic. Plugging breaches is a pipe dream and I have no idea what happens when the grunts are bingo ammo (I'm not counting on disciplined fire).

            Still, the amount of things that has to go right to the PLA is still staggerring. There's only 3 beaches the PLA can attack. Sink a freighter in the axis of approach and the landing is fucked. Wonder why the Japanese never thought of that.
            Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 25 Mar 21,, 21:23.
            Chimo

            Comment


            • This is the most coherent take i've heard on the quad yet



              Not seen Gen. Kakar on my usual programs. He speaks with a lot of clarity.

              Those advocating for a military component are missing the point. Military alone isn't enough.

              Military alone forces ASEAN to choose and they will stay out.

              This is why other components were added eg. infrastructure, high tech & vaccines.

              Combine diplomatic, economic and "other" and you have the basis to go after China on more fronts.

              Military alone was fine to deal with the Soviets as there was no economic integration. A different approach is required with China as mentioned in Pompeo's speech at the Nixon library.

              Military is a last resort anyway and India will be on its own as will US and its allies.

              Nothing changes on that score.

              India's baseline is we will have to deal with China on our own. The same applies to the US.

              India and the US are the only two militaries that can handle China. Russia is a third but they're not going to.

              If quad works out great otherwise nothing lost.

              We won't conduct FONOPS under US leadership, we will conduct them on our own should it become necessary.

              The general thinks the test for how well the quad agenda fares depends on the response by ASEAN.

              If ASEAN gets on board then we're set. If they hold back then we need to rethink.

              This is in contrast to what John Lee from Hudson said, he thought ASEAN was too compromised to be of any use hence the need for quad to act on their own or in concert with other powers with a veto on China policy.

              He also thinks China might take Taiwan in less than six years.

              He adds to Sen. Cotton by saying the SCS islands were taken during Obama's time, HK in Trump's time. Biden is going to have to deal with Taiwan.
              Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Mar 21,, 14:54.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Combine diplomatic, economic and "other" and you have the basis to go after China on more fronts.
                Then, what's the point? You're not economically integrated to present a united front and if India is willing to piss off Canada, then you can be sure that Australia wouldn't be too keen about supporting India in her disputes diplomatically.
                Chimo

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  Then, what's the point? You're not economically integrated to present a united front and if India is willing to piss off Canada, then you can be sure that Australia wouldn't be too keen about supporting India in her disputes diplomatically.
                  The vaccine initiative is going to exceed what China can do. We're off to a good start.

                  The key word here is cooperation. Integration is further down the path.

                  India does not have to be "integrated" to cooperate in the maritime sphere now does it.

                  And i DO mean military here otherwise India would not have been invited and there would be no "quad"

                  The powers that be do not see the lack of integration as a stumbling block for what they have in mind.

                  Wait for the interest groups to meet and see what they come up with. A BRI counter is on the anvil.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                    The vaccine initiative is going to exceed what China can do. We're off to a good start.

                    The key word here is cooperation. Integration is further down the path.

                    India does not have to be "integrated" to cooperate in the maritime sphere now does it.

                    And i DO mean military here otherwise India would not have been invited and there would be no "quad"

                    The powers that be do not see the lack of integration as a stumbling block for what they have in mind.

                    Wait for the interest groups to meet and see what they come up with. A BRI counter is on the anvil.
                    If you don't know what to ask for, you definetely will not get what you want.

                    Chimo

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                      If you don't know what to ask for, you definetely will not get what you want.
                      Why do you think we don't know what to ask for ?

                      The military aspect of quad is Navy based. So the idea is to keep SLOC's or trade routes clear. A lot of merchant ships passing through the region. This is why we see interest from UK, Germany & even the Netherlands. That list will likely grow with time.

                      China grabbed islands in the past because nobody took them seriously, now that the world woke up its about preventing them from grabbing more.

                      We don't even have to join in operations just mere presence is enough.

                      This is just one instance of cooperation.

                      If China ups the ante and i expect they will then we come up with counter measures.

                      The end result is China is going to be challenged in every sphere it dominates.

                      Win over countries of the region, pull them towards the quad, US allies included, more that succeeds more China gets isolated.

                      It changes the environment in the region by pulling others towards the quad instead of leaving them on the sidelines or on China's side for lack of an alternative.

                      That is the intent.

                      Pushing back BRI, Chinese funding, Chinese vaccines, Chinese tech (cyber ops) & Chinese supply lines.

                      That is where the quad is heading. Way beyond just the military sphere where it was.

                      Can the quad bring ASEAN closer from its present stance of neutrality ? Early days still.

                      A good start by Biden. Exceeded expectations. Waylaid the opposition skeptics.

                      The surprise was going beyond the military aspect.
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Mar 21,, 19:39.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        Why do you think we don't know what to ask for ?

                        The military aspect of quad is Navy based. So the idea is to keep SLOC's or trade routes clear. A lot of merchant ships passing through the region. This is why we see interest from UK, Germany & even the Netherlands. That list will likely grow with time.

                        China grabbed islands in the past because nobody took them seriously, now that the world woke up its about preventing them from grabbing more.

                        We don't even have to join in operations just mere presence is enough.

                        This is just one instance of cooperation.
                        You and the US, Japan, and Australia are at different ends of this spectrum. You want to stop Chinese expansion into the Indian Ocean. The other 3 wants to roll back Chinese claims in the SCS and they want India to do the heavy lifting while India wants the US to do the heavy lifting. No one is asking for what they want and dances around the issue, hoping circumstances would force one of them to say yes.

                        Hoping for circumstances to come your way is not a plan.
                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          You and the US, Japan, and Australia are at different ends of this spectrum.
                          Area of Operations is different. This we will work on.

                          India - Indian Ocean
                          Australia - Southern Pacific
                          US & Japan - ECS & SCS

                          Islands getting occupied in the SCS does not affect India & Australia.

                          But taking those islands are steps towards realising the 9 dash line and will eventually affect Indian & Australian shipping.

                          Now our interests are aligned.

                          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          You want to stop Chinese expansion into the Indian Ocean. The other 3 wants to roll back Chinese claims in the SCS and they want India to do the heavy lifting while India wants the US to do the heavy lifting.
                          Stopping Chinese expansion in the Indian Ocean depends on the first island chain remaining in place.

                          China wants to change that. Taking Taiwan opens up the way. Enforcing the 9 dash line allows China to push the US out.

                          That is when they come into the Indian Ocean.

                          Why allow them to do that if we can play a role in preventing them breaking out in the first place.

                          Logistics. We have worked out agreements with Japan, US, Australia & France. We can all share resources.

                          French warships arrive in Kochi ahead of joint naval exercise with Quad member countries in the Bay of Bengal from April 5 to 7 | Hindu | Mar 30 2021

                          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          No one is asking for what they want and dances around the issue, hoping circumstances would force one of them to say yes.

                          Hoping for circumstances to come your way is not a plan.
                          Maybe what parties want has not been made public (CCP will start whining) but i'd like to think there is a clear understanding between the parties on that matter.

                          The first test is already upon us. If PH loses its EEZ then the quad is a failure.

                          There are 200 fishing boats moored around the Whitsun reef. Also claimed by Vietnam.

                          The excuse is these boats are there because of bad weather.

                          PH AF is flying jets to monitor them.

                          The thinking is those boats will be there for a few more weeks and then pull out.

                          The goal here would be to prevent them from taking the reef if possible.

                          Scarborough shoal has not been militarised as it would be a threat to PH but it was lost in 2012 and is used to coerce PH policy.

                          US, Japan and Indonesia ramp up pressure on Beijing | SCMP | Mar 29 2021

                          Kang Lin, a deputy director of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said the pressure on Beijing over the South China Sea would continue to rise as the US rebuilds its alliances in the region under President Biden.

                          “The South China Sea issue is obviously not one that the new Biden administration has identified as one that is looking for cooperation with China. It is classified as an area of competition or resistance. Different from Donald Trump’s unilateral approach, Biden adopts a ‘group-beating’ approach with its allies.

                          Whenever an ally faces a challenge, the US will call upon its ‘friends’ to pressure China. Therefore, it can be expected that China will face bigger pressure in the South China Sea compared to Trump’s term.”
                          I think Gen. Kakar's test for the quad is a good one. A year from now where will ASEAN stand. Closer or as is
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 30 Mar 21,, 16:18.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            Areas of Operations are different. This we will work on.

                            India - Indian Ocean
                            Australia - Southern Pacific
                            US & Japan - ECS & SCS

                            Islands getting occupied in the SCS does not affect India & Australia.
                            Doesn't affect the UK, France, and Canada either but our (and Australian) warships make regular patrols in the area.

                            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            But taking those islands are steps towards realising the 9 dash line and will eventually affect Indian & Australian shipping.

                            Now our interests are aligned.
                            You're not getting it. We want Indian ships front and center, a regional power who can do the heavy lifting because they're closer to home than we are. We're not getting Indian ships front and centre.

                            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            Stopping Chinese expansion in the Indian Ocean depends on the first island chain remaining in place.
                            Let's also be clear on what India wants. She wants the USN to protect her interests. Having a pro-India USN in the Indian Ocean relieves India of permenantly stationing a carrier group in the Indian Ocean.

                            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            Logistics. We have worked out agreements with Japan, US, Australia & France. We can all share resources.
                            You're not storing reloads.

                            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            Maybe what parties want has not been made public but i'd like to think there is a clear understanding between the parties on that matter.
                            You should learn map reading. It's the first thing I reach for when deciding on intel. Indian and USN current patrols tells me all I need to know who wants what. If it's that important, both sides will do it with or without the other's help.
                            Chimo

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              You're not getting it. We want Indian ships front and center, a regional power who can do the heavy lifting because they're closer to home than we are. We're not getting Indian ships front and centre.
                              Where do you want them ?

                              A while back you said all we had to do was show the flag. We've done that with Vietnam & Phillipines already.

                              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              Let's also be clear on what India wants. She wants the USN to protect her interests. Having a pro-India USN in the Indian Ocean relieves India of permenantly stationing a carrier group in the Indian Ocean.
                              I don't follow you. The first priority to work on was maritime domain awareness. This we did with the Fusion centre near Delhi which has a number of permanently stationed liaision officers from a number of countries.

                              We wanted intel sharing which we are receiving now with the foundational agreements being signed. We're looking to get surveillance drones that will add to the pie.

                              The idea of not stationing an aircraft carrier in the Indian ocean strikes me as odd. That is our AO. Now if the US can station them in the SCS & ECS as happened a year back during the border tensions that is appreciated as now China has two fronts to watch.

                              India has to be able to defend her interests or she will be of no use to any one. So we've procured assets to do ASW. We're not asking USN to do it.

                              Click image for larger version  Name:	india naval exercises.jpg Views:	0 Size:	315.1 KB ID:	1572886

                              We train with a lot of navies. For what ?

                              To be in a position to do EXACTLY what you said. Become a regional power capable of heavy lifting.

                              China knows this. So they got us to park 5 divisions on the border freezing their butts off doing nothing.

                              That's $5bn taken out of the defense budget. Rinse and repeat and you keep India bottled in.

                              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              You're not storing reloads.
                              Why can this not change in the future ?

                              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              You should learn map reading. It's the first thing I reach for when deciding on intel. Indian and USN current patrols tells me all I need to know who wants what. If it's that important, both sides will do it with or without the other's help.
                              Post some maps so i can better understand what you mean. The end goal is for both to do just that without the other's help.

                              This isn't even new for us. We kept the peace from Suez to Singapore for over a century before WW2.
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 30 Mar 21,, 20:58.

                              Comment


                              • What should the IN be doing ? Sea denial or sea control

                                Our Navy doctrine is sea control.

                                Aggressive sea control isn’t an option for India’s navy | Interpreter | Mar 17 2021

                                An interesting debate has emerged in the pages of The Interpreter involving maritime strategy. Arzan Tarapore wrote an article last month arguing that India should prioritise a sea denial strategy in the Indian Ocean aimed at “reinforcing defensive bulwarks “ that could dissuade China from “launching an attack, or, failing that, [be] thwarted from succeeding”.

                                Two former admirals, James Goldrick and Sudarshan Y Shrikhande, subsequently offered a contrasting perspective, cautioning against making too much of sea denial or the related idea of sea control, as the concepts relate not to “dominion over an area of water for its own sake, but the ability to use or deny the use of the sea”.

                                The key to effective maritime security, Goldrick and Shrikhande noted, is to combine instruments of maritime strategy in ways that maximise options for national governments, including the use of submarines in a sea control role.
                                US Navy officer singing a hindi tune and doing a pretty good job at it
                                Last edited by Double Edge; 30 Mar 21,, 21:05.

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