Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

[Oracle]

So that's Gen Bakshi's line you went with.

Now the Paks might think its an invasion route to interdict the Karakoram highway at the Khunjerab pass. But the real value of Siachen is it safeguards the Depsang bulge or SSN sector. If the Paks were on Siachen and the Chinese pressing up against Depsang as they are now.

India would find it very hard to hold Ladakh. The value of Siachen is it allows us a chance to defend Ladakh. This is why we blow $1 million per day and have been doing so since 1985 to defend the Siachen glacier. Can't have sensors up there because once you lose the heights its very hard to retake them. So have to station troops there.

Why Depsang Plains, eyed by China, is crucial for India’s defence in Ladakh | The Print | Sept 19 2020

How India realised it was at risk of losing the Siachen glacier to Pakistan | The Print | April 12 2018

AVM Subramaniam has completed two volumes on India's wars.

CPEC connects Xinjiang - Shaksgam Valley - Gilgit Baltistan - upto Gwadar. Ladakh is more or less fortified, and will be so from now on. Any messing around in Ladakh would mean IA opening up the Tibet front. IMV, India doesn't blow up $1M/day (figure you quoted) to safeguard Ladakh, but to protect an invasion route to Shaksgam valley and Gilgit-Baltistan. And then PoK and Aksai Chin.

[Oracle]

Yeah, twitter outsource fact checking to some outfits in California.


Taiwanese have the same impression right about now. After China stopped flights landing on one of their islands called Pratas.

What matters now is what comes out of the 2+2 agreement and whether there is any forward movement with the quad.

China cannot be allowed to take over Pratas otherwise they will try to go further.

I have no hope from the QUAD, unless a defence treaty of some sort is signed between the 4 democracies. Until then it's in the good Colonel's words, toilet paper, and it is India which is the irritant #1 among the QUAD countries.

[Double Edge]

CPEC connects Xinjiang - Shaksgam Valley - Gilgit Baltistan - upto Gwadar.

Karakoram highway does not pass through Shaksgam. Shaksgam allows China better defense of Xianjiang.

Ladakh is more or less fortified, and will be so from now on. Any messing around in Ladakh would mean IA opening up the Tibet front.

China's messing around in Ladakh is leading to the fortification of Ladakh via infrastructure. Now that Ladakh is a UT no permission is required from Srinagar which has allowed us to speed up work there.

IMV, India doesn't blow up $1M/day (figure you quoted) to safeguard Ladakh, but to protect an invasion route to Shaksgam valley and Gilgit-Baltistan. And then PoK and Aksai Chin.

That's what OOE thinks. Thing is i've never heard any Indian commentator say that.

The motivation of Operation Meghdoot and subsequent Siachen deployment has been to block China & Pakistan from linking up there because Siachen sticks out like a wedge between the two. If the two do link up then both help the other. China threatens in the east helps Pakistan push from the west. And vice versa.

I'd spend million a day if it helped hold Ladakh. An invasion route seems a lot for just that. Who's to say there aren't any others into GB ?

Maybe Rohit or Shiv can do a video showing what the possible routes to GB are.

Check out Rohits' Ladakh series to get a better understanding of China's options in Ladakh.

The DBO road seems a bit precarious so we're building additional roads there to reinforce it.

[Oracle]

Karakoram highway does not pass through Shaksgam. Shaksgam allows China better defense of Xianjiang.

I did not say otherwise. What the Paks tried to do during Kargil, the IA sits on top of Siachen just to do it when shit hits the fan.

That's what OOE thinks. Thing is i've never heard any Indian commentator say that.

And when the Colonel first spoke of that, I came around and supported his view. You want to take back PoK, GB, Aksai Chin, Shaksgam valley or not? If the answer is yes, then one has to pay the price for eternity until those areas come into the Union of India. It's a game of money and patience.

The motivation of Operation Meghdoot and subsequent Siachen deployment has been to block China & Pakistan from linking up there because Siachen sticks out like a wedge between the two. If the two do link up then both help the other. China threatens in the east helps Pakistan push from the west. And vice versa.

Incorrect. They're already linked before Op. Meghdoot. IA sitting in Siachen threatens Shaksgam Valley, GB, PoK and hence CPEC from China-Pak perspective.

I'd spend million a day if it helped hold Ladakh. An invasion route seems a lot for just that. Who's to say there aren't any others into GB ?

There are. IA can ramrod their way through normal routes, but giving away Siachen means giving away the border with Shaksgam Valley. Similarly giving away pieces of Ladakh to salami-slicing tactics of the PLA would mean giving away the border with Aksai Chin. Then it becomes triple difficult then what it is now to take back Indian lands when the time comes.

[Oracle]

Source

[kuku]

From Armoured???
The hell was he doing.

I have a wild theory, he somehow managed to get drunk during the day, and ran away to avoid being punished for being drunk....

[Double Edge]

Incorrect. They're already linked before Op. Meghdoot. IA sitting in Siachen threatens Shaksgam Valley, GB, PoK and hence CPEC from China-Pak perspective.

Listen

What does Nitin say here ? prevent the two from linking up. Imagine the Paks have Siachen. Now see how far the LAC is from there. After Rohit's third video it becomes clear why we need to hold SIachen.

Interesting account by the two officers involved in Operation Meghdoot. Kulkarni explains why and what.

There are. IA can ramrod their way through normal routes, but giving away Siachen means giving away the border with Shaksgam Valley. Similarly giving away pieces of Ladakh to salami-slicing tactics of the PLA would mean giving away the border with Aksai Chin. Then it becomes triple difficult then what it is now to take back Indian lands when the time comes.

We control the passes at Siachen. They are in excess of 20,000 ft.

Looking at the map they are entry points into GB and vice versa

But as an invasion route you'd have to send troops up really high to use them.

Makes no sense as an invasion route does it.

Controlling the heights is a defense tactic not offense.

We are preventing the Paks making ingress into OUR territory.

Kargil was revenge for operation Megh Doot. By taking the heights they made the Srinagar - Leh highway inoperable.

Cutting off Leh from Srinagar.

If they take Siachen they can do the same and help China capture Ladakh.

[Officer of Engineers]

But as an invasion route you'd have to send troops up really high to use them.

Makes no sense as an invasion route does it.

Makes a lot of sense in more ways than one.

The terrain makes this a coy level fight, not division or corps. Force on weak. A brigade can do the job of a corp if there is no one stopping them.

It forces the Pakistanis to commit to a lot bigger force in defence and since the Indians command the heights, they can observe where the weak points are. Pin down the strong force from re-enforcing while clobberring the weak points.

Reverse slope practically makes your artillery invulnerable and from those heights, outrange anything the Pakistanis could bring to bear.

AND your own army made this point, not me. The Pakistanis can withdraw if they want. The Indian Army will not advance. That is an outright threat if I ever read one.

[Double Edge]

Makes a lot of sense in more ways than one.

The terrain makes this a coy level fight, not division or corps. Force on weak. A brigade can do the job of a corp if there is no one stopping them.

Once they get over the heights, the people at the heights can't do much or they hit their own people. This is why i don't see the offense angle

Or is that the point they don't need to. Once the invasion force goes in the other side has to retreat until they can reinforce at a choke point further along.

Northern part of a pincer

Otherwise great for defense and repulsing any attacks.

It forces the Pakistanis to commit to a lot bigger force in defence and since the Indians command the heights, they can observe where the weak points are. Pin down the strong force from re-enforcing while clobberring the weak points.

Here is the ORBAT



Right click on the image -> Open New Tab to get a higher resolution image

Rohit estimates the Paks have around 150,000plus reserves tasked for the entire area. I don't see or cannot tell if they are being forced to use more numbers than we are to defend from Siachen. Looks about equal. We have a brigade in Siachen as do the Paks.

India has 230,000 troops dedicated for the entire area. Some of those divisions have to cover the eastern front with China as well.

Looks like its parity with the Paks otherwise.

Ergo there are a number of invasion routes into PO J&K

Gen Thimaya in 1948 sad he needed three weeks to secure the entire PO J&K. Pretty sure he was not going to use Siachen.

It's an entrely different matter that Nehru denied the general permission and instead chose to settle the matter at the UN

Reverse slope practically makes your artillery invulnerable and from those heights, outrange anything the Pakistanis could bring to bear.

Good for keeping them back, but how to avoid hitting our guys who made it through ?

AND your own army made this point, not me. The Pakistanis can withdraw if they want. The Indian Army will not advance. That is an outright threat if I ever read one.

I don't understand why you say its a threat ?

If it was a threat wouldn't the Paks have tasked more to defend around there. It does not seem the case.

It seems to me Bakshi's playing on words by reversing things. It is India that cannot afford to withdraw from there.

Because our hold on Ladakh would be threatened which then works to help the Paks and back and forth until India is entirely pushed out of J&K by both adversaries.

[Double Edge]

I have no hope from the QUAD, unless a defence treaty of some sort is signed between the 4 democracies. Until then it's in the good Colonel's words, toilet paper, and it is India which is the irritant #1 among the QUAD countries.

Put it this way. Where is China going to attack. 3 places. India, Taiwan, SCS

If China picks one and people do nothing then China will go after the others as well. Why not. Hitler did the same too.

That is the logic that will make the quad more substantive.

Given the world has not been able to do enough for Tibet, Xianjiang or HK, China could conclude Taiwan is fair game too.

Quad is a vehicle to incorporate India into the US alliance structure without the formalities of India becoming an ally.

In spirit we will behave like an ally, we just won't sign anything.

Quad is meaningless without India.

Japan, Aus, Taiwan are already in treaty arrangements with the US.

Who needs India then ? they can handle China on their own.

There's the flip side of this as well.

Others expect India to deal with the border on its own and still contribute to the Indo Pacific.

Isn't it better then to just work with the US and forget Aus & Japan. They're already in an alliance.

More the better. More interlocking triangles of stability.

[Double Edge]

Cant predict anything, weirder things have happen.
In the border areas people dk stray into other places and get lost.

Getting lost as a part of aa recce/patrol party explanation is very logical, although that doesn't say much for PLAs we're prepared propoganda.

Spying sounds illogical unless they're that incompetent, which would be good for us.

The recce idea is out because he was not adequately dressed for the altitude. It does appear to be inadvertent.

[Officer of Engineers]

Once they get over the heights, the people at the heights can't do much or they hit their own people. This is why i don't see the offense angle

Or is that the point they don't need to. Once the invasion force goes in the other side has to retreat until they can reinforce at a choke point further along.

Northern part of a pincer

Otherwise great for defense and repulsing any attacks.

I'm just going to answer everything in one post instead of individual points. There are several strategic reasons to cross the Siachen Glacier.

1) Cutting the Pakistani-Chinese LOC
2) North Flanking maneuver
3) Physical and psychological disorientation
4) Force on weak
5) And your pincer movement

I lack the specifics to go into detail on how this AO would fit in an overall campaign to take J&K but the command of the heights does reveal several OPOBJs that can be achieved; namely above points. As to why only a bde. The terrain only allows a bde but that doesn't mean that the bde cannot offer a path for a follow on force and it does not have to go through the glacier but the glacier does control the valleys in which a follow on force can penetrate.

As to why the Pakistanis only station a bde in the area. Primary because it's damned expensive, especially when the Indians only station a bde in the area. When you have other money needs, you task with what you think you need to defend.

[Double Edge]

I'm just going to answer everything in one post instead of individual points. There are several strategic reasons to cross the Siachen Glacier.

1) Cutting the Pakistani-Chinese LOC
2) North Flanking maneuver
3) Physical and psychological disorientation
4) Force on weak
5) And your pincer movement

I lack the specifics to go into detail on how this AO would fit in an overall campaign to take J&K but the command of the heights does reveal several OPOBJs that can be achieved; namely above points. As to why only a bde. The terrain only allows a bde but that doesn't mean that the bde cannot offer a path for a follow on force and it does not have to go through the glacier but the glacier does control the valleys in which a follow on force can penetrate.

As to why the Pakistanis only station a bde in the area. Primary because it's damned expensive, especially when the Indians only station a bde in the area. When you have other money needs, you task with what you think you need to defend.

There is one very simple point that comes across here.

Holding the heights allows offensive operations. Any heights.

If that is true then what Bakshi said can be seen as a threat. That Siachen allows an invasion route.

Nobody points it out because its so rare for us to go on the offense.

But i think its implicit.

[Double Edge]

Hmmm, reluctantly agree.

Think of alternatives.

Iran

The sanctions act as a blockade in reverse

Number of boats required to enforce this reverse blockade ? none

Strait of Hormuz blocked ? nope

Will it take time to have an effect, years if not months ? yes

[Double Edge]

From Defensive-Offence strategy to India-China standoff: An overview

Interesting summation of the security picture in the Modi era.

The advantage of initiative lay with New Delhi, and thus, the results of the DO strategy have by and large been admirable.

You will have to stop bashing Doval now

Therefore, looking back, the DO strategy has served India’s interests commendably in a surprisingly short duration of time. However, the time has come to operationalise it in areas where India’s capabilities are relatively weaker. This means that the strategy will have to expand to accommodate friends and embrace newer tactics. In short, the Defensive-Offence will now have to transform into a Collaborative Defensive-Offence.

If China relies on comprehensive national power

India and co. will have to rely on comprehensive multi-national defense