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  • Ajai mentions de-escalation has already begun. Further corroboration required..

    Doklam crisis begins winding down: Both sides reduce troops, China proposes new Sikkim border agreement | Broadsword | Aug 02

    The 45-day confrontation in Doklam has begun de-escalating. Top army sources tell Business Standard that the number of Chinese border guards at the contested border tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan is now down to just 40, from a peak of over 300 at the end of June.

    Meanwhile, many Indian troops have also been pulled back. From a peak of almost 400 at the height of the crisis, there are now just 150 Indian soldiers in the contested Doklam bowl. In addition, a full Indian Army brigade, consisting of almost 3,000 troops, stands poised in Indian territory near the tri-junction, ready to respond to any emergency requiring the use of force.

    As part of the de-escalation, the Chinese government has issued a lengthy, 15-page statement on Wednesday that uses tough language, but also evinces a new reasonableness. It demands “immediate and unconditional withdrawal” of Indian troops, but innocuously stating that, from “over 400 people at one point, [who] put up three tents and advanced over 180 meters into the Chinese territory… As of the end of July, there were still over 40 Indian border troops and one bulldozer illegally staying in the Chinese territory.”

    Business Standard understands that Beijing and New Delhi have reached an understanding to mutually withdraw troops from the contested area, regardless of their public postures.

    As this newspaper reported on July 19 (“With Doklam negotiations under way, military believes it has emerged victor”) Indian defence planners calculate that, in a stalemate, such as that emerging from a mutual and simultaneous withdrawal from Doklam, India would have achieved its security aims. The two-fold aim that India would have achieved includes demonstrating to Beijing New Delhi’s commitment to its security treaty with Bhutan; and keeping the Chinese at arm’s length from the vulnerable Siliguri corridor – a 27-kilometre wide bottleneck that connects the Indo-Gangetic Plain with India’s seven northeastern states.
    In a significant development, the statement proposes: “The Chinese and Indian sides have been in discussion on making the boundary in the Sikkim Sector an ‘early harvest’ in the settlement of the entire boundary question during the meetings between the Special Representatives on the China-India Boundary Question…
    Fantastic news since India has just thrown out whatever agreements we had in place over for the entire border since the last twenty years.


    Doklam: the word from Ground Zero | Broadsword | Aug 04 2017

    Indian Army officers participating in the Doklam faceoff have provided Business Standard the first detailed accounts of how the situation has evolved.

    They say the Doklam bowl – which is disputed between China and Bhutan – currently has an extended, 200-metre long line of Indian infantry soldiers confronting a smaller number of Chinese border guards. Just one metre separates the two lines.

    At any time, there are about 40 Chinese border guards in the disputed valley, facing off against three times that number of Indian jawans.

    Backing up the Chinese front line are another 1,500 troops, a mix of border guards and regular People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers. These are positioned outside the disputed Doklam area, but cross in and out of the disputed area, relieving those on the front line at regular intervals.

    Indian troops standing guard in Doklam are similarly relieved by a full infantry battalion (600 troops), located in Indian territory to the west. Backing up this battalion is a full infantry brigade (2,000 troops), ready to respond to any military moves from China.

    In addition, a second fully acclimatised infantry brigade, slightly further away, stands ready to respond to a crisis.

    “We fortunately had two brigades training in high altitudes nearby, so we have plenty of acclimatised troops. If needed, we can muster far more forces than the Chinese in Sikkim. This would never be an area where they start something”, says a senior Indian commander.

    According to these officers’, tension began in early June, when Indian forces in the vicinity observed Chinese patrols reconnoitring the track in the disputed Doklam bowl. Intelligence assessments concluded that China was going to try and extend the road towards the Jampheri Ridge, at the farthest edge of China’s claim line.

    Indian commanders strongly rejected yesterday’s statement by China’s foreign ministry, which claimed that India had been notified on May 18 and June 8, “out of goodwill through the border meeting mechanism”, that China would be building a road in Doklam.

    They say, the Indian army reported to Delhi that road building seemed imminent, and were granted permission to cross into Bhutan-claimed territory to stop construction.

    When India crossed into Doklam and confronted the Chinese construction parties, “they were taken completely by surprise and offered no resistance”, says an officer privy to events. “These are no soldiers; they are conscripted border guards, who live in heated barracks and periodically patrol the border in vehicles. They don’t walk much”, says an Indian commander.

    “Our soldiers, in contrast, live a far tougher life. In Doklam, they stand guard without moving, while the Chinese keep breaking the line and going back for cigarette breaks. Indian morale is sky-high; soldiers know they are participating in something unprecedented – crossing a border to defend an Indian ally”, says the Indian officer.

    Eventually, the Chinese had to send in a political commissar, recount Indian officers. “The commissar ordered up martial music and the hoisting of Chinese flags to stiffen resolve. They clearly had problems”, he says.

    In the macho manner of militaries, the Indian Army is using a large number of Sikh and Jat soldiers to man the line in Doklam – in the expectation that their height and sturdiness would intimidate the smaller Chinese.

    Army officers are elated also at having kept the confrontation out of the media for a full ten days, until Beijing was forced to make the incident public. “The Chinese have always complained that India’s media is too shrill and pro-active. This time, China had to mobilise their media, because we were there on the ground and nobody knew.”

    Indian soldiers also point out that China has begun building bunkers and creating defences on the border. “That’s another first. They are recognising our capability to act decisively”, says an officer.

    According to a senior Indian general: “The situation in Doklam has plateaued. Militarily, the Chinese know they can do nothing here. Eventually it will have to be a negotiated withdrawal, or the Chinese will have to open a front in another sector.”


    With Beijing warning on Friday that “Chinese armed forces will resolutely protect the country's territorial sovereignty and security interests”, the PLA could choose its next move anywhere on a long, 3,500-kilometre border that stretches from Ladakh to Myanmar.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Aug 17,, 17:52.

    Comment


    • Doklam: China's defence ministry does not support 'short war' theory

      Interesting.
      Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

      Comment


      • Doklam’s unintended consequence | IE (Op-Ed) | Aug 08 2017

        India sees no reason to pick up a needless quarrel with a neighbour and rising power like China. But Beijing might be terribly wrong in presuming that Delhi would simply fold up under pressure. Pushed to a corner, India has every incentive to simply dig in. If China sees itself as an irresistible force today, India could well turn out to be that immovable object. There will be no happy ending for this confrontation.

        China appears to have been carried away by the success of its recent coercive diplomacy in East Asia and the South China Sea. Unlike China’s East Asian neighbours, India has the capacity to absorb pressures from Beijing. With limited economic interdependence with China, Delhi can bear the costs of a severed commercial relationship. If India could turn its back on the dominant powers of the West for many decades during the Cold War, it could do that with China again.

        China is also wrong to believe that asymmetry in power potential will automatically lead to surrender. China could learn from Pakistan’s refusal to submit to the widening strategic gap with India. Beijing’s haughty and unpleasant diplomacy in the current crisis will eventually lead to the conviction in Delhi that strategic defiance of China must prevail over the temptations for appeasement.

        One of the consequences of power asymmetry is the pressure on the weaker power to turn to balancing strategies. Until now, India has deeply resisted walking down that road in the expectation that a reasonable accommodation of interests with China is possible. If China makes it clear there is no room for compromises, India will have to turn to both internal and external balancing of China.

        One of the unintended consequences for China from the Doklam crisis would be an India that is forced to think far more strategically about coping with China’s power. For nearly a century, sentimentalism in Delhi about Asian solidarity and anti imperialism masked the more structural contradictions with China. Beijing’s approach to the Doklam crisis could well help bury those illusions.

        The writer is director, Carnegie India, Delhi and contributing editor on foreign affairs with ‘The Indian Express’

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
          Gets into this 'status quo' thing we keep bringing up



          Some higher up must have had a word with GT because now they want to show they can have civil discussions : D

          The Chinese layperson must think India is the belligerent. If one goes by their media

          China is building a road on ITS territory.

          Suddenly Indians come over and tell them they can't build a road on THEIR territory. Said Indians then squat on THEIR territory and refuse to leave

          Best part ? India isn't even claiming this territory. Somebody else is.

          So why is India sitting on THEIR territory and why is India saying China cannot build a road on THEIR territory.

          Furthermore India is insisting China must leave THEIR territory as a precondition for withdrawal.

          How is China in the wrong here !!!!

          Who changed the status quo ? India.

          So naturally, India must first vacate before talks can begin.

          All makes sense (if you're Chinese) doesn't it :D
          And India has said no. Doesn't matter what the Chinese think. India is in for a long haul, the only way forward for the Chinese is a diplomatic solution or war. They better choose wisely.

          All of this hoopla from the Chinese side makes me think whether this was a deliberate action on part of the PLA with approvals from the CPC & CMC, and the subsequent sabre-rattling from the Chinese media, to showcase Xi as 'The Chairman' after 'Chairman Mao'. And for this a skirmish or a war is unnecessary, just keep the border and media tempo high and Xi gets what he wants.
          Last edited by Oracle; 08 Aug 17,, 15:20.
          Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

          Comment


          • To put pressure on China:

            #1. Dalai Lama should give a statement about Tibet/Xinjiang's freedom and human rights abuses.

            #2. In capitals of every state in India, a massive anti-Chinese goods boycott movement should be called, which needs to be backed by protests culminating at the Chinese embassy and end with burning of Chinese flag, goods and a call to get the F out of Tibet/Xinjiang. This is for the foreign media.

            #3. 12 Chinese products/companies are currently under investigation in India, take this number to 50, and continue adding more companies every week.

            #4. Have media discussions in prime-time channels about how the Chinese block Indian IT, Pharma companies from doing business in China, as well as about the trade deficit. This staged discussion should end with everybody on the panel agreeing to ban Chinese products as of now, and if necessary Chinese companies in the future.

            #5. Another staged discussion about bombing Chinese investments in PoK and Gwadar and the entire trade route, in case of even the slightest Chinese belligerance.

            #6. Question the 1 China policy. A member of the present disposition at the Centre, should come out with a statement in the media that Tibet/Xinjiang/Taiwan is not recognized as part of China.
            Last edited by Oracle; 08 Aug 17,, 15:23.
            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
              And India has said no. Doesn't matter what the Chinese think. India is in for a long haul, the only way forward for the Chinese is a diplomatic solution or war. They better choose wisely.

              All of this hoopla from the Chinese side makes me think whether this was a deliberate action on part of the PLA with approvals from the CPC & CMC, and the subsequent sabre-rattling from the Chinese media, to showcase Xi as 'The Chairman' after 'Chairman Mao'. And for this a skirmish or a war is unnecessary, just keep the border and media tempo high and Xi gets what he wants.
              China wins if it gets a diplomatic solution not with us but with Bhutan. The prize for China here is Bhutan. Freak them out enough to consider opening diplomatic relations with China. This in itself is counter intuitive, threaten somebody over decades to become friends with you ? how can that work. But that's the Chinese carrot and stick policy. If Bhutan were to say thank India for its support and they will take it up with the Chinese from now onwards. I don't know how agreeable we would be to such a suggestion though.

              Chinese have been trying for decades now without success. This attempt should be seen as yet another attempt and will not be the only one.

              Am trying to figure out where the tipping point lies that is with sufficient Chinese coercion makes the Bhutanese turn. This depends on how much pressure China can bring to bear.

              If you study their tactics in the south china sea their policy is grey zone coercion. The defender must be willing to accept substantial risk of escalation to come out ahead. That is what the Vietnamese did with the oil rig incident. Our opening move puts the burden of escalation on the Chinese. If they respond we have to be prepared to escalate further, vertically not horizontally. This is when our red lines become clear and they understand where the limits lie.

              You see how this works ? countries are fearful of escalation that could lead to open ended conflict. Treaty partners both undergo a fear of abandonment and a fear of entrapment. This makes them amenable to China without China firing a shot or fewer. If you win this round, they will come back a few years later when there is a different administration and try again with a new variation.

              Bhutanese did not entrap us here though and we're not about to abandon them, quite the contrary..
              Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Aug 17,, 16:10.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                China wins if it gets a diplomatic solution not with us but with Bhutan. The prize for China here is Bhutan. Freak them out enough to consider opening diplomatic relations with China. This in itself is counter intuitive, threaten somebody over decades to become friends with you ? how can that work. But that's the Chinese carrot and stick policy.
                I meant diplomatic solution with India, not Bhutan. Bhutan should not come into the picture. Bhutan doesn't have relation with the remaing P4 countries, does China think they are freaking special?

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Chinese have been trying for decades now without success. This attempt should be seen as yet another attempt and will not be the only one.

                Am trying to figure out where the tipping point lies that is with sufficient Chinese coercion makes the Bhutanese turn.This depends on how much pressure China can bring to bear.

                If you study their tactics in the south china sea their policy is grey zone coercion. The defender must be willing to accept substantial risk of escalation to come out ahead. That is what the Vietnamese did with the oil rig incident. Our opening move puts the burden of escalation on the Chinese. If they respond we have to be prepared to escalate further, vertically not horizontally. This is when our red lines become clear and they understand where the limits lie.
                The trick is to not let that tipping point come w.r.t. Bhutan. The counter moves lies in post # 170, and if necessary follow through it. With propaganda and with bullets and bombs.

                India is not escalating right now because there are significant gaps. There is no doubt that China cannot win, but what we (and Modi and Doval) must focus now is how to achieve complete victory. And that needs significant amount of dollars, and hence a bigger economic play.
                Last edited by Oracle; 08 Aug 17,, 15:56.
                Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                Comment


                • Chinese hackers step up attacks on Indian shores

                  Let the Chinese build SEZs, road, Hotels etc. Ban every Chinese company from everything else.
                  Last edited by Oracle; 09 Aug 17,, 05:28.
                  Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                    To put pressure on China:

                    #1. Dalai Lama should give a statement about Tibet/Xinjiang's freedom and human rights abuses.

                    #2. In capitals of every state in India, a massive anti-Chinese goods boycott movement should be called, which needs to be backed by protests culminating at the Chinese embassy and end with burning of Chinese flag, goods and a call to get the F out of Tibet/Xinjiang. This is for the foreign media.

                    #3. 12 Chinese products/companies are currently under investigation in India, take this number to 50, and continue adding more companies every week.

                    #4. Have media discussions in prime-time channels about how the Chinese block Indian IT, Pharma companies from doing business in China, as well as about the trade deficit. This staged discussion should end with everybody on the panel agreeing to ban Chinese products as of now, and if necessary Chinese companies in the future.
                    examples of horizontal escalation

                    #5. Another staged discussion about bombing Chinese investments in PoK and Gwadar and the entire trade route, in case of even the slightest Chinese belligerance.

                    #6. Question the 1 China policy. A member of the present disposition at the Centre, should come out with a statement in the media that Tibet/Xinjiang/Taiwan is not recognized as part of China.
                    Could these last two be considered vertical, hmmm. Counts for nothing unless there is a determined will to follow through. Has to be credible.

                    But the bottom line is we are prepared to jettison whatever trade advances that have been made in the last twenty odd years.
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Aug 17,, 16:18.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      examples of horizontal escalation

                      Could these last two be considered vertical, hmmm. Counts for nothing unless there is a determined will to follow through. Has to be credible.
                      Those are all propaganda tactics (horizontal, vertical) to unnerve the Chinese. But as I said, if needed we have to follow through with every means at our disposal. Doval is very talented and calm. He sure has some aces up his sleeves. Let's see how things unfold in the coming days and months.

                      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      But the bottom line is we are prepared to jettison whatever trade advances that have been made in the last twenty odd years.
                      That is a good thing. National security is paramount. Trade is secondary. Chinese trade is unnecessary.
                      Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                      Comment


                      • Some reading.

                        Logic Behind Chinese Aggressive Moves!

                        In reality, Indian civilisation owes nothing to China, whereas China is heavily marked by a reverse civilisational flow...


                        Hambantota Swallowed – China entraps Sri Lanka

                        How to check China

                        Dealing with China’s Recent Assertiveness
                        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                          Those are all propaganda tactics (horizontal, vertical) to unnerve the Chinese.
                          Propaganda ? no

                          vertical is uppping the ante, horizontal has lower deterrence value. Its like firing off target, maybe very far off and hoping to affect their next move. Vertical is direct and focused in the area of concern.


                          Doval is very talented and calm. He sure has some aces up his sleeves. Let's see how things unfold in the coming days and months.
                          He will push strongly for a peaceful, face saving way out for both. If that doesn't work and depending how impatient the Chinese are then its plan B. They better make up their minds quick. The weather will close in soon and make it difficult to do anything.

                          Comment




                          • India media needs to pick up such videos and showcase them across National TV Channels. There are plenty of these. And then, send a questionairre to the Chinese embassy the next day for answers. So many things can be done.
                            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                              Propaganda ? no

                              vertical is uppping the ante, horizontal has lower deterrence value. Its like firing off target, maybe very far off and hoping to affect their next move. Vertical is direct and focused in the area of concern.
                              Yes. The point is to have a gradual shift to vertical escalation. Giving China enough time to back off.

                              Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                              He will push strongly for a peaceful, face saving way out for both. If that doesn't work and depending how impatient the Chinese are then its plan B. They better make up their minds quick. The weather will close in soon and make it difficult to do anything.
                              I too think so.
                              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                              • As many as 100 people feared dead in Chinese earthquake

                                Rest in peace.
                                Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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