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  • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
    Scenario #1 - Teach India a lesson that PLA is still the superior force, and then withdraw due to international pressure.

    Scenario #2 - What I actually dread is someone down the ranks saying enough, and pulls the trigger. It can be from the IA or the PLA.

    In no scenario does CPC care about its troops. Whatever their casualties, CPC will keep it secret and information controlled.
    All comes down to understanding what they want and how they intend to prosecute it.

    Thinking on a tactical level isn't giving us much to go with.

    SO let's go a little further. Political warfare.

    If you can win at the political level then tactical can go for a toss.

    Three warfares


    Public opinion warfare
    Psychological warfare
    Legal warfare

    We have to use these to understand how they go about it.

    Originally posted by Oracle View Post
    What will the Americans do uninvited? Even if invited, what options do the Americans have in the Himalayas? I think it is a bit naive to think of the Americans as Hyenas, joining the kill and bombing Chinese fortifications in the SCS or Ladakh. :D

    What America can do, and is doing, is helping us with ELINT and mil capabilities right now. Other than that, the GoI doesn't think there's space for any more in this party.
    Atul Aneja's speculation.

    We tend to see our conflicts as localised but this time its become regionalised. The world isn't seeing this as localised but as a pattern of (mis)behaviour that applies to other countries as well.

    Another commentator mentioned French offering troops to fight in Ladakh. I can't find any sources for this statement.

    What is true though is China under XJP is no longer satisfied with trade, economics & stability but is getting more into occupation and claiming territories of others. Clearly, this means things will get worse before they improve not just for India but the broader region.

    Should XJP continue to be in charge of the CCP that is.

    Originally posted by Oracle View Post
    What if the West do to the PRC, the same thing it did to ROC, in 1971? Anyone thought about this scenario? I will take a bet and wager the Colonel's guard dogs that the Americans have thought about it.
    To figure this we have to understand why the Americans replaced ROC with PRC. If they wanted an ally against the Soviets my guess is this was Mao's demand.

    End the ambiguity over who is the legitimate representative of China.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Sep 20,, 20:09.

    Comment


    • Not seeing anything inaccurate with this comment on YT. If that is what China is saying then that is what we did.

      China’s Western Theatre Command said Monday evening that Indian troops once again illegally crossed the Line of Actual Control near the south bank of the Pangong Lake and Reqin mountain pass on Monday, a blatant provocative move that seriously infringed on China’s territorial sovereignty, and undermined the peace and stability in the China-India border area.

      Earlier in the day, India, who first moved to accuse China of carrying out “provocative military movements,” said it preempted Chinese military activity.

      The word “preempt” shows it was the Indian troops that first took destructive actions, and the Indian troops initiated the standoff this time.

      Twenty Indian soldiers died in the Galwan Valley clash between Chinese and Indian troops in June. In the following two months, anti-China opinion dominated Indian society.

      India overreached itself by economically sanctioning China and strengthened interaction with the US in order to gain an upper hand over China. Washington almost publicly sided with New Delhi, which further encouraged the latter.
      However if the alternative is China wins with yet another fait accompli on the southern bank of the Pangong Tzo i say we were justified in pre-emptive actions. In reality they are blocking actions.

      They were probing and we replied. We're alert to any actions they might want to further undertake.

      We're still in reaction mode though. Time to get more proactive.

      The 59 apps ban had some effect. It was playing on another level and received a positive response in the US & Oz.

      Tik Tok isn't the same any more.

      Time to kick the ball over to their side again.

      Our actions should be to encourage & rally others to follow. Then we get a force multiplier effect.

      The grand prize here is the dismantling of the one china policy. We do it if we have confidence other major powers will follow suit.

      To date the US is the only power that maintains this position. Can we add some more numbers to that list.

      Political warfare. No shots need to be fired.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Sep 20,, 18:08.

      Comment


      • For example



        Which China ? lol

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
          Not seeing anything inaccurate with this comment on YT. If that is what China is saying then that is what we did.



          However if the alternative is China wins with yet another fait accompli on the southern bank of the Pangong Tzo i say we were justified in pre-emptive actions. In reality they are blocking actions.

          They were probing and we replied. We're alert to any actions they might want to further undertake.

          We're still in reaction mode though. Time to get more proactive.

          The 59 apps ban had some effect. It was playing on another level and received a positive response in the US & Oz.

          Tik Tok isn't the same any more.

          Time to kick the ball over to their side again.

          Our actions should be to encourage & rally others to follow. Then we get a force multiplier effect.

          The grand prize here is the dismantling of the one china policy. We do it if we have confidence other major powers will follow suit.

          To date the US is the only power that maintains this position. Can we add some more numbers to that list.

          Political warfare. No shots need to be fired.
          Dismantle one-china policy in context to what, Taiwan? Do we know if the majority of the Taiwanese want to be a separate entity. Because I the current situation, HKers probably want to be out of PRC/ROC whichever entity you believe in. Or are you suggesting that the powers need to encourage Taiwanese to shed their ROC identity and embrace their separateness.

          Either way there is nothing that India can/wants to do other than manage the border situation.

          The only action that will make the Chinese not be dismissive of India is if India comprehensively embraces USA as it would add an elephant at their Western border, a lumbering elephant but an elephant nevertheless....
          Seek Save Serve Medic

          Comment


          • Nitin insists we did not cross the LAC on the night of 29 - 30 Aug as stated by China's western theatre command.

            We reached the heights faster on our side than they did. That was a trek from 12,000 to 16,000 feet completed in 3 hrs. We dominate the heights there now. Up to them if they want to continue fortifying a kill zone.

            Chinese are insisting we move back. This is good. Finally both sides are in agreement : )
            Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Sep 20,, 00:56.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by 667medic View Post
              Dismantle one-china policy in context to what, Taiwan? Do we know if the majority of the Taiwanese want to be a separate entity. Because I the current situation, HKers probably want to be out of PRC/ROC whichever entity you believe in. Or are you suggesting that the powers need to encourage Taiwanese to shed their ROC identity and embrace their separateness.
              Open diplomatic relations with Taiwan and other major powers follow suit. What Taiwanese want is up to them. Commentary from their side isn't exactly discouraging us from doing so. Quite the contrary ; )

              That would be hard blow to the CCP. What counter move do they have. They already are on a mission to shore up our smaller neighbours with the intent to turn them hostile. A pattern they are replicating with the US & Australia and any one else that defies them.

              The late Sushma made the point to her Chinese counterpart that India expects a one India policy in exchange for a one China policy.

              So its not a new idea. The question now is when not if.

              Originally posted by 667medic View Post
              The only action that will make the Chinese not be dismissive of India is if India comprehensively embraces USA as it would add an elephant at their Western border, a lumbering elephant but an elephant nevertheless....
              Not an option due to Russia.

              Why be indirect when you can take a direct shot ? Banning those apps is taking a direct shot.

              More of these actions will follow if things don't improve.

              To achieve 'all under one heaven' China needs to make a start by becoming the indisputable leader of Asia.

              India is standing in the way. Beat India and then push the Americans out.

              Do it without starting any wars.

              Then the rest of the world is open.
              Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Sep 20,, 00:14.

              Comment


              • Official Spokesperson's response to a media query on the recent developments in the India-China Border Areas | MEA | Sept 01 2020

                In response to a media query on the recent developments in the India-China Border Areas, MEA Spokesperson, Shri Anurag Srivastava said

                As you aware, India and China have been closely engaged through diplomatic and military channels over the past three months to resolve the situation along the India-China border. It would also be recalled that earlier the two Foreign Ministers and the two Special Representatives had agreed that the situation should be handled in a responsible manner and either side should not take any provocative action or escalate matters and ensure peace and tranquility as per bilateral agreements and protocol.

                The Chinese side however, violated this understanding and engaged in provocative military maneuvers in the late night of 29th and on 30th August in an attempt to change the status quo in the South Bank area of Pangong Lake. As stated yesterday by Indian Army, the Indian side responded to these provocative actions and took appropriate defensive measures along the LAC in order to safeguard our interests and defend the territorial integrity. Furthermore, yesterday on 31st August, even as the ground commanders of the two sides were in discussions to de-escalate the situation, the Chinese troops again engaged in provocative action. Due to the timely defensive action, the Indian side was able to prevent these attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo.

                The actions and behavior of the Chinese side since earlier this year along the LAC has been in clear violation of the bilateral agreements and protocols concluded between the two countries to ensure peace and tranquility on the border. Such actions are also in complete disregard to the understandings reached between the two Foreign Ministers as also the Special Representatives.

                We have taken up the matter of recent provocative and aggressive actions with Chinese side through both diplomatic and military channels and have urged them to discipline and control their frontline troops from undertaking such provocative actions.

                The Indian side is firmly committed to resolve all outstanding issues along the LAC in the Western Sector through peaceful dialogue. In this context, we expect the Chinese side to sincerely abide by the understanding reached earlier and earnestly work with the India to resolve the situation and to restore peace and tranquility in the border areas.

                New Delhi
                September 01, 2020
                Always ALONG the LAC never ACROSS.

                Comment


                • Oh for Pete sakes, it's damned easy. Agree to the LAC and and maybe a DMZ. Then man the hell out of the area by both sides. Won't stop shooting incidents nor deaths but at the very least, both sides would know it would be a damned long piss instead of pretending everything will be hunky dory.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • ^ Sir, China doesn't want to settle the boundary issue, so it's lingering for this long. Some give and take would have been acceptable to India, but China's actions is making it hard on the incumbent GoI to give anything now. In the garb of LAC not being demarcated, PLA is pushing forward, salami-slicing. You've said, those are just rocks, but Chinese intentions have not been fully understood, so giving away more is not an option. They would come back for more rocks if not stopped.

                    Meanwhile, PUBG, WeChat: Full list of 118 apps banned by Centre

                    China's latest incursion bid was deliberate move to provoke India: US intelligence

                    LAC face-off: India moves to secure eastern stretch of border after clashes with China in Ladakh

                    I agree with DE when he says China is trying to occupy land it gained in the 1962 war (withdrew as their supply lines collapsed). What is happening is China trying to gain heights, which gives them battle advantage. SFF were involved securing the 2 ridges on the intervening night of August 29-30.
                    Last edited by Oracle; 02 Sep 20,, 13:30.
                    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                      Oh for Pete sakes, it's damned easy. Agree to the LAC and and maybe a DMZ. Then man the hell out of the area by both sides. Won't stop shooting incidents nor deaths but at the very least, both sides would know it would be a damned long piss instead of pretending everything will be hunky dory.
                      We agreed to the LAC in 1993. An error which allowed them to change lines as they saw fit.

                      What China is doing now is pushing towards the limits of the territory they won in 1962 but subsequently withdrew from.

                      It makes me want to say we should push for the borders as they were pre-1962.

                      That's what Nehru would have done.

                      Comment


                      • Then agree to a DMZ instead of a LAC. Then pay for manning the hell out of it on both sides.
                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • ^ Problem is, China has not agreed to anything before, is not agreeing to anything now. Left to me, I'd have preferred military action to take back encroached lands. Indian Army wants to use force to evict PLA, GoI prefer talks. Talk, talk and more talk. We're on course to talk the PLA to death.
                          Last edited by Oracle; 03 Sep 20,, 13:52.
                          Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            All comes down to understanding what they want and how they intend to prosecute it.

                            Thinking on a tactical level isn't giving us much to go with.

                            SO let's go a little further. Political warfare.

                            If you can win at the political level then tactical can go for a toss.

                            Three warfares


                            Public opinion warfare
                            Psychological warfare
                            Legal warfare

                            We have to use these to understand how they go about it.
                            What they want is land, more land, and more land. What China is trying to do is capture heights on the Indian side of the LAC. This fits with their domestic propaganda narrative that China is the pre-eminent power in Asia, which can take on US. This also fits in their agenda of killing the monkey (India) to scare the chicken (Taiwan).

                            As about the 3 warfare you've posted, I've read it. Public opinion in India is to bomb China. Psychological warfare won't work on Modi+Amit Shah duo. Legal warfare, the Apex court is sympathetic to the incumbent government, this is my observation. WTO? We'd leave WTO, and go for country to country FTAs. We need to realise the enormous potential of the Indian market. Have you not read the statements coming from Chinese leaders about India banning Chinese apps etc.

                            Atul Aneja's speculation.

                            We tend to see our conflicts as localised but this time its become regionalised. The world isn't seeing this as localised but as a pattern of (mis)behaviour that applies to other countries as well.

                            Another commentator mentioned French offering troops to fight in Ladakh. I can't find any sources for this statement.

                            What is true though is China under XJP is no longer satisfied with trade, economics & stability but is getting more into occupation and claiming territories of others. Clearly, this means things will get worse before they improve not just for India but the broader region.

                            Should XJP continue to be in charge of the CCP that is.
                            What I believe is, the fall of India as a regional leader vis-a-vis China is not at all in American interests (it was not in 1962, remember), and US would sacrifice/sanction their relations with Pakistan if it comes to that. Why am I naming Pakistan? See screenshots in my next post.

                            Who do you think rang up the politico-military brass in South Block and passed sat images of PLA trying to encroach on those heights on Aug 29-30 night? Yep, some American.

                            To figure this we have to understand why the Americans replaced ROC with PRC. (1) If they wanted an ally against the Soviets my guess is this was Mao's demand.

                            (2) End the ambiguity over who is the legitimate representative of China.
                            (1) Correct.

                            (2)Whatever it is, this initiative/talks should come from US administration. And this should have the support of western powers alongwith Russia, till the Modi government is in power.

                            Unless US feels the world order is threatened, this would wait. These Americans think 50 years in the future. Some wrong, mostly right, and their foreign policy is always robust.
                            Last edited by Oracle; 04 Sep 20,, 05:41.
                            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                              Live snippets that I clipped off online.
                              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                              Comment


                              • ^ India's armed forces capable of dealing with Chinese actions in best suitable ways: CDS General Bipin Rawat

                                India steps up scrutiny of Chinese influence group amid ratcheting border tensions

                                So, China is doing its best to reach the level of Pakistan when it comes to Indian visa scrutiny. Good going Xi. More power to you.
                                Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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