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Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

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  • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    What I meant was that the Chinese could claim that India was too chickenshit to evict them from Bhutan and India would be too ignorant of that claim because no one bothered to do their homework on who the decisions makers were and why they made those decisions.
    Ah, so now the question is what was our intent ?

    As far as i know that road they wanted to build has not been built where they wanted to build it.

    This is why in my previous comment, i mentioned status quo.

    AIM btw disputes that and says he has evidence they are building again and nothing has been done.

    So too say some opposition columnists. Indian Army says bunk.

    I've no way of verifying.

    No way of verifying if what the previous NSA said was true or not.

    Or whether this whole play was a posturing/messaging exercise by India.

    The larger picture which is to get a Chinese embassy in Bhutan.

    Peel Bhutan away from Indian influence and thereby weaken India's position in any future border settlement.

    How's that for overall political intent ?

    China has not succeeded with that in this episode. To date there is no Chinese embassy in Bhutan.

    The military side is minor, neither is interested in anything bigger.

    The line that came out of the Wuhan meet was not to allow differences to turn into disputes.

    So status quo holds. In more ways than one : )
    Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Mar 20,, 05:55.

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    • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
      Ah, so now the question is what was our intent ?

      As far as i know that road they wanted to build has not been built where they wanted to build it.

      This is why in my previous comment, i mentioned status quo.

      AIM btw disputes that and says he has evidence they are building again and nothing has been done.

      So too say some opposition columnists. Indian Army says bunk.

      I've no way of verifying.

      No way of verifying if what the previous NSA said was true or not.

      Or whether this whole play was a posturing/messaging exercise by India.

      The larger picture which is to get a Chinese embassy in Bhutan.

      Peel Bhutan away from Indian influence and thereby weaken India's position in any future border settlement.

      How's that for overall political intent ?

      China has not succeeded with that in this episode. To date there is no Chinese embassy in Bhutan.

      The military side is minor, neither is interested in anything bigger.

      The line that came out of the Wuhan meet was not to allow differences to turn into disputes.

      So status quo holds. In more ways than one : )
      Chinese intent was to build a road into Bhutanese territory upto India. Everybody knows this bit, even the Americans. Slice and dice theory. They never thought India would want to pick up a fight for the Bhutanese. So what commentators think is irrelevant here.

      One reason why I post these videos is because I don't know much about it, so that one of you would thrash it with reasons, or add your own reasons. I live in a country that is notoriously notorious for keeping information from the public.

      And DE, the Chinese ambassador, consul general from Kolkata have been known to make trips to Bhutan from time to time. It's just a matter of time before the chinese have a permanent presence there in the shape of an embassy.

      One more thing, for all the bravado coming out in Chinese press against India or the US, about their 5th gen fighters, missiles etc, most is propaganda.
      Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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      • Oh for Pete sakes, if you two are any examples, no wonder India sucks at propaganda. Never mind the reality, what is the spin and who is the intended audience?

        The 1962 Sino-Indo War was a military disaster for the Chinese. Their LOCs collapsed and they had to run back to their LACs. Well, guess what their propaganda department did? Who were celebrating on the streets? It ain't the Indians.

        Fast forward to Bhutan, who would the 50 cents believe? Dehli or Beijing? And more importantly, are there less or more Chinese popular support for the next adventure?

        Get it now?
        Chimo

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
          Chinese intent was to build a road into Bhutanese territory upto India. Everybody knows this bit, even the Americans. Slice and dice theory. They never thought India would want to pick up a fight for the Bhutanese. So what commentators think is irrelevant here.
          I saw them building a road into Bhutanese disputed territory coercing the Bhutanese to accept that territory is Chinese. This is the important part. It's slice & dice. Reaching India isn't relevant. You can only build a road on your own territory.

          They have not succeeded here. The disputed territory remains outstanding.

          One reason why I post these videos is because I don't know much about it, so that one of you would thrash it with reasons, or add your own reasons. I live in a country that is notoriously notorious for keeping information from the public.
          Did not find any problem with what AIM said in that video.

          And DE, the Chinese ambassador, consul general from Kolkata have been known to make trips to Bhutan from time to time. It's just a matter of time before the chinese have a permanent presence there in the shape of an embassy.
          He might make trips there but what is the reason there is still no embassy there TODAY.

          What is required for that ? is it predicated on some border settlement or something else.

          One more thing, for all the bravado coming out in Chinese press against India or the US, about their 5th gen fighters, missiles etc, most is propaganda.
          We got a sampling of it from GT during the 3 months this stand off endured.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Mar 20,, 21:58.

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          • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
            Fast forward to Bhutan, who would the 50 cents believe? Dehli or Beijing? And more importantly, are there less or more Chinese popular support for the next adventure?

            Get it now?
            Tell us how you would have handled it.

            My answer is below

            They may have more popular support but does the CCP want to go through this again or did they get the message already ?

            Chinese don't have their road. India stopped them.

            They wanted to build a road, we confiscated their equipment.

            This incident being resolved required both to claim a victory.

            Did we settle too soon ?

            Look, we've been through this before already in '86. The Sun-durong chu incident. That went on for over nine months and its resolution took a further nine years. The beginning started with Rajiv making a trip to Beijing in '88. That was the first time since relations were snapped in '62.

            Too chicken shit is non-sensical. Would such a party pick a fight if they had no guts ?

            And the proof of that is their GT kept giving us hot air us for three months which GOI didn't even bother to reply to.

            In India there is zero doubt as to how well this was handled by the govt. That is to say very well.

            Proactive, firm right through to resolution.

            If they're up for another round we're ready with support from the public.

            We're building roads to the area and have mountain divisions up.

            They will be met with a quick mass of our own guys at any point on the border they choose.

            Where it goes after is up to them.
            Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Mar 20,, 22:20.

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            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              Tell us how you would have handled it.
              That's not how this works. AARs evaluates what actually happenned and not what-ifs. The Chinese got surprised by the Indian response and got caught flat footed by having an inferior force in place. You can be sure that they will not make that mistake again. The question is can any of your neighbours detect a Chinese stong force before they detect the incursion?
              Chimo

              Comment


              • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                That's not how this works. AARs evaluates what actually happenned and not what-ifs. The Chinese got surprised by the Indian response and got caught flat footed by having an inferior force in place. You can be sure that they will not make that mistake again.
                Right, they will now have to devote more people to the border than before.

                Like they made us do.

                But there is some thing more here. We have an advantage over them in terms of geography in Sikkim & Ladakh.

                A larger force might help them reduce the advantage but it will have to be really strong.

                There are other areas they can exploit where they have an advantage.

                We will have to reinforce those positions on our side.

                The question is can any of your neighbours detect a Chinese stong force before they detect the incursion?
                I'm not sure why you said neighbours. Don't you mean India ? or are you referring to a replay with Bhutan again.

                We watch the border, should any show up the satellites will watch. We might have assets on the other side as well informing on movements.

                Some people have said this will make for more incursions in the future.

                The army has said we cross over on their side too.

                This is a curious playing down of what got people agitated in the past.
                Last edited by Double Edge; 21 Mar 20,, 09:19.

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                • Basic military doctrine. Get THERE with the FIRSTEST with the MOSTEST. Note the capitalized parts. Where is the THERE that is of importance. How do you get there the FIRSTEST. What is the MOSTEST force can you deliver in that time to achieve your objective.

                  The Sino-Indo border is a game of moving border rocks. It's a settled game where there is no advantage. Both sides are already THERE with the MOSTEST force that they can expect to defend their objectives. No one is getting there the FIRSTEST.

                  That is not the case with the countries within India's sphere of influence such as Bhutan.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • What is the objective. Occupy Bhutan or forcefully settle the border issue with Bhutan.

                    We're not too far away. We could send in reinforcements and quite frankly any actions on Bhutan will be considered as if they occurred with India.

                    To succeed Bhutan would have to refuse India's help. Why would they do that. They know if they are not careful they will end up like Tibet and so far their king has been quite astute in these matters. I don't know the king's pov as its never made public. There were academic papers where Bhutanese were seeking to diversify their foreign partners.

                    So why aren't we back to your second para ? neither side has an overall advantage EVEN in Bhutan.

                    If China is looking for an in it won't be via their military. It has to be diplomatic with economic incentives.

                    China is already doing that, its called BRI and people can see what happens to countries that are in debt or get in over their head.

                    Bhutan isn't going to fall for that.

                    We've encouraged Bhutan to get closer to the Americans and even Japanese as a counter to whatever China offers.
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 21 Mar 20,, 21:13.

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                    • You're asking the questions that frankly got India complacent enough to ignore the intial incursion into Bhutan and allowed the Pakistanis to get a foothold at Kargil. Counter their capabilities, not their intent which frankly could change in a moment's notice.
                      Chimo

                      Comment


                      • Ah, you're saying the Chinese could do a Kargil on us. This will be an interesting subject to explore.

                        The best place in terms of payoff would be Sikkim. If they manage to win the commanding heights there then they threaten Assam. Bhutan is then outflanked on both sides.

                        Threaten Assam and the rest of the NE goes. Capture & hold Assam and you disconnect the NE from India.

                        Assam is a big prize whether separatist, islamist or PLA : )

                        Posted an article in the thread on this earlier from WOTR. Adapted from a longer paper he did for US navy war college.

                        The one where i learnt we actually have an advantage in geography there as well as Ladkah. Another area where China could just drive through and keep driving till they reach Pakistan.

                        Because on a non topological map, taking both seems so easy and at risk.

                        cybersurge also did some videos on possible ingress points here

                        Grab Tawang since they always get heart burn whenever the Dalai Lama visits that place.

                        Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                        The Chinese got surprised by the Indian response and got caught flat footed by having an inferior force in place. You can be sure that they will not make that mistake again.
                        Hence why the S204 road from Xigaze to Nathu La already has a strong PLA presence. They learnt their lesson after the Nathu La clash in '67. Probably not well enough because we surprised them a second time at Doklam which is only 50 kms away from Nathu La.

                        Border personnel meeting between India, China held at Nathula Pass 'with lot of warmth' | PTI | Oct 01 2019
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 22 Mar 20,, 01:24.

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                        • There is a characterisation i've heard, can't recall whether its Chinese or Indian.

                          Think of China as the palm of a hand.

                          The palm represents China, the fingers starting from the little one represent Bhutan, Sikkim, Nepal, Tibet & XJ

                          To secure its western flank China needs to dominate in these areas.

                          XJ & Tibet are lost. Sikkim is Indian & Bhutan is in India's sphere.

                          That leaves Nepal

                          We will see whether a 98% hindu state thinks its future lies with China or India : )

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            Ah, you're saying the Chinese could do a Kargil on us. This will be an interesting subject to explore.
                            I'm saying that without knowing the names of Chinese Generals, you don't know what their intents are.

                            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            The best place in terms of payoff would be Sikkim. If they manage to win the commanding heights there then they threaten Assam. Bhutan is then outflanked on both sides
                            You're making the mistake of assuming their intent again.

                            Their War Zone Campaign doctrine. Lure, isolate, and destroy a major enemy force in a battle of annihlation and then get the hell out of there before the enemy could mount a relief campaign, ie punitive expeditions.
                            Chimo

                            Comment


                            • The Colonel is saying India lacks at propaganda, which is 100% true. Capabilities apart, intent is what should worry us. Mountain divisions are not yet filled, DE.

                              But Colonel, how do we understand their intent by only knowing the names of PLA generals? We then have to do a primary research, maybe a secondary research to know more about the said generals. It's not like their intent is written on their face. How to know?

                              After 2 wars, and decades of hostilities, doesn't the IA have a doctrine that negates the Chinese one?

                              Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                              Their War Zone Campaign doctrine. Lure, isolate, and destroy a major enemy force in a battle of annihlation and then get the hell out of there before the enemy could mount a relief campaign, ie punitive expeditions.
                              These doesn't accomplish anything for the PLA other than the lesson that, India, don't mess in the future when the Chinese are gobbling up Bhutan. And this is a lesson in itself.

                              IA maintains 600 personnel in Bhutan, that mainly trains the RBA. Apart from that, establishment 22 has a presence there, and almost along all borders with China.
                              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                                But Colonel, how do we understand their intent by only knowing the names of PLA generals? We then have to do a primary research, maybe a secondary research to know more about the said generals. It's not like their intent is written on their face. How to know?
                                The question is who are they? Are they paper Generals or competent military men?

                                Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                                After 2 wars, and decades of hostilities, doesn't the IA have a doctrine that negates the Chinese one?
                                It is extremely shocking to me that I know more about the Chinese military than Indian Army officers facing them. The good Brigadier Ray (RIP) laughed his ass off when I said the Chinese were willing to fight the Indians down to the last Pakistani. After he recovered from his laughter bellyaches, it dawned on him that this made more sense than he knew. It is only then he started spreading this knowledge to his friends in the Indian Army.

                                I also gave mailed him a CD full of open sourced US Army Field Manuals and he couldn't stop reading all of it. I think those became gifts to his friends.

                                Add to this that none of the commentators, including former Indian Army members, knew Chinese General names, you have your answer.

                                To give you an insight, it was retired General Cao, a veteran of the 1984 2nd Sino-Vietnam War who developed the WZC. Did you ever came across his name on any Indian commentator?

                                Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                                These doesn't accomplish anything for the PLA other than the lesson that, India, don't mess in the future when the Chinese are gobbling up Bhutan. And this is a lesson in itself.

                                IA maintains 600 personnel in Bhutan, that mainly trains the RBA. Apart from that, establishment 22 has a presence there, and almost along all borders with China.
                                I could come up a who sleuth of reasons why the Chinese are there. It maybe a polce matter and not a military one. The drug trade is vastly unchecked in the south. The Chinese are more worried about drug smuggling into Tibet than they do about people fleeing to the Dali Lama.

                                However, the thing about punitive expeditions is to punish, not to establish control. If the Indians beefed up their side of the border, it does the same thing to drug trafficers and the Chinese don't have to spend a dime to garrison the border.

                                Establishing an Indain outpost in Bhutan also stretches the InA's men, material, and budgets. Not a good thing.

                                So in short, before all these commentators start belching how the Chinese were scared off, at the very least know if competent Generals made the decision (which I think it was competent deisions. Paper Generals would have fought to protect their own egos). If that were the case, the next adventure would be a Kargil.
                                Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 22 Mar 20,, 17:09.
                                Chimo

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