Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

[Double Edge]

Want to recognise yet another video by Shiv Shastry. Builds on an earlier video he made to counter opposition claims.

Where is the Arunachal border ? pertinent question when you have opposition commentators saying China is building villages 'inside' Indian territory.

[Double Edge]

What is it that India can conceivably do in this scenario? This is why I have always considered the QUAD having any real military implications a fantasy.

I put this down to perception issues on our side. However the Chinese have no illusions.

They see like minded, powerful countries in the region upping defense budgets and then exercising together.

There is a common motive.

There is zero chance of India jumping into the conflict if the Chinese invade Taiwan and the US and Japan join in.

You might want to reconsider.

Who do you think China will come for after ??? Does it make sense then for India to sit and watch from the sidelines.

This is similar to US deciding to join the war in Europe in WW2. Not their war but in they went and so will we should such a contingency arise.


I've been looking for a counter from a credible Indian commentator on that bolded bit and found it couple months back from General Dhruv Katoch.

So here it is in a discussion from Nov.

Q. When it comes to capacity what are the conversations that we should be having in terms of our own calculations of what is a minimum credible deterrence ?

General Dhruv Katoch: If there is a conflict which takes place in the Himalayas, India will have to go it alone.

And if Chinese use the nuclear threat, we now have the Agni 5 to counter. It can reach any point in china so i think that nuclear threat has been deterred, both through our submarine capabilities and through land capability.

As far as the Indo-pacific is concerned, No i think that if a major battle takes place there India will have to join in.

The Americans won't join in the high Himalayas but for India to stay out of an Indo-pacific war will be absolute suicide

We will have to join forces and see the Chinese don't get in

How many PLA divisions can we tie down at the Indo-Tibet border and what can we do in the maritime space

We might not stick to the border but go into Tibet proper. From another discussion in October, General Dhruv Katoch again

Q. China seems to be trying to tell us that enough conversation, it's time for something that we have been preparing for and that is some sort of a posturing, some sort of an optical battle and that is exactly what is ensuing across the border ?

General Dhruv Katoch : I've been following this development in eastern Ladakh very closely and to my mind it looks as if China has once again tried to apply psychological pressure on India.

Now their aim is, if Indians withdraw or they accept Chinese terms then it is a win-win situation for China and of course it will be lose lose for India.

Now I don't think the Indian military or the Indian political leadership is going to go for that. The army chief has made it very clear that we are prepared to spend the winter there and if it comes to a LOC type of full-time deployment over the years then we are prepared for that too.

What has to be seen is whether China is prepared for a full-time deployment ?
Are their troops capable of it and do they wish to go through that or do they wish to go in for a minor conflict ?

Now as to this conflict business I just have one statement to make which i have been making repeatedly.

It is my belief that this conflict will not be confined to land warfare.

If it takes place, the Indian air force will come into play and if the Indian air force comes into play the tank posturing which they are doing really won't make much of a difference because the battle is not going to be fought over the high Himalayas.

The battle will have to be fought over the Tibetan plateau and that is where the key results will lie so China should be prepared for that.

They have moved s400 regiments there to boost their air defense cover but we will see as to how we can negotiate that because ultimately the battle will have to be won and lost over the skies over Tibet.

And if China is ready to go that route, if China is ready to take that risk well she will find that India is ready and more likely than not China will lose this round.

He then goes on to describe what a fight would look like.

It has always been my belief that as far as China is concerned it will only enter into a war with India if it is absolutely certain it will win.

And as of now there is no certainty in the mind of the Chinese leaders that victory is assured. In fact most likely if China were to get into a conflict. China is most likely to lose it as of now.

Many people make the mistake of looking at the total forces which the Chinese have visibly and the total forces which India has but it doesn't work that way.

You've got to see what can be employed by the Chinese over Tibet, in either eastern Ladakh or Arunachal or both of them together.

Ultimately the battle is not going to be fought really by the ground forces, the ground forces are going to come into play at a very late stage.

The initial battle will be psychological which is being played out now, then it will get on to the cyber and space domain.

Then it will come down to where we are looking at missiles and air warfare, then artillery, movement of tanks etc and finally infantry assaults where they will actually try to capture objectives.

I don't think it is going to reach that stage because getting control over the Tibetan airspace is going to be a huge problem for the Chinese.

As of now i don't see them getting it and without getting total control over the airspace they cannot win a land conflict. Period.

They're not going to get into a war and it is important to understand that so long as India is prepared there will be no war.

If you lower your guard, if you lose out psychologically well China's won that game but it's not going to happen now.

That is why the air force continues to remain deployed, the army continues to remain deployed and the political will is not shaken.

I'm pretty sure the Aussies would stay away as well.

I think everyone will be looking at what the US does here. The strategic ambiguity thing has every one guessing, Chinese have their own ambiguity and this has subsequently led to similar ambiguity from America's partners.

(Ambiguity) ³

A lot depends on how long the Taiwanese can hold out.

And conversely there is zero chance of any of the other three countries in the QUAD lifting a finger if the Chinese invade Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh. Maybe the US might help out with Sat imagery. Maybe. That's about it.

Summer 2020 US had two CBG's in the area. That is the beginnings of a strategy.

[Firestorm]

New Delhi needs to consider seriously whether its continuing scepticism of closer security cooperation with others best serves India’s interest.

What skepticism? What is it that India can conceivably do in this scenario? This is why I have always considered the QUAD having any real military implications a fantasy. There is zero chance of India jumping into the conflict if the Chinese invade Taiwan and the US and Japan join in. I'm pretty sure the Aussies would stay away as well. And conversely there is zero chance of any of the other three countries in the QUAD lifting a finger if the Chinese invade Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh. Maybe the US might help out with Sat imagery. Maybe. That's about it.

[Double Edge]

And, what does Col. Newsham make of this 'Tainwan contingency' plan between the US & Japan.

The Japan-US Taiwan Contingency Plan: Less Than Meets the Eye | One Korea Network | Jan 04 2022

By Grant Newsham - January 4, 2022

The Kyodo News reported on Dec. 23 that the U.S. and Japanese militaries have written a draft plan for a “Taiwan contingency” and may soon draw up an “official” plan. The uninitiated might think the Americans and the Japanese are finally going to buckle down and develop a real joint operational plan to handle a Taiwan contingency.

<sigh>

However, after spending a few decades of observing the trajectory of Japan’s defensive capabilities, it’s easy to become a “glass half-empty” kind of guy. And a closer look at the plan—something that should have been in place years ago—doesn’t exactly inspire excitement.

The news account is admittedly fragmentary and confusing.

According to the report, the plan would be set in motion once the Japanese government declares the situation around Taiwan to be serious enough to “undermine the peace and security of Japan.”

Once that happens, U.S. Marines are allowed to set up an “attack base” somewhere along the Nansei Shoto—also known as the Ryukyu Islands chain, which includes the island of Okinawa—that stretches from Kyushu almost to Taiwan. This would be a first as the Marines are barely allowed to operate on Okinawa—even in peacetime.

What’s Japan’s role? According to the news story, the Japanese will provide logistical support, including ammunition and fuel. If so, Japan will need to start buying HIMARS missiles of the sort the Marines use. One suspects the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) hasn’t received that order yet.

MOST READ

So Tokyo permits the Marines to sally forth to do battle with the Chinese threatening Taiwan—when the Japanese decide it is time. And Japan apparently doesn’t have to join the fighting.

Such a deal.


Capabilities, Training, Goals, and Laws


Almost inadvertently, the Kyodo report raises fundamental questions about the impediments to what actually needs to be done for Japan and the United States to defend Taiwan, each other, and themselves.

For example, sending out a U.S. Marine missile battery or two isn’t a contingency plan for dealing with a Chinese move against Taiwan.

Rather, a proper operational plan requires melding the full resources and capabilities of U.S. forces and the JSDF—not just sending out the Marines. And even a detailed plan is still just a plan. If forces don’t train and exercise for the plan, then they might as well not bother.

The U.S. side is well aware of this. Whether the Japanese side is, is another question.

Additionally, one imagines that if and when serious planning takes place, the U.S. and the Japanese militaries may come at the problem from two completely different directions.

Whereas the Americans are interested in stopping the Chinese invasion of Taiwan—and that means killing Chinese troops—the Japanese may be more concerned with defending the Nansei Shoto and Japanese territory, and avoiding as much harm to anyone as possible.

And other reasons not to hold one’s breath about the “plan” having real world effects anytime soon is the Japanese still need to “study” revising laws to permit the Marines to deploy. And then they will have to actually pass the laws.

And Tokyo also needs to study and pass laws and/or regulations that lay out when an event involving Taiwan threatens Japan’s peace and security enough to let the aforementioned laws kick in.

And don’t forget the debating that will take place over all this—slowed by lobbies of all sorts.

To read more, please click here.

Grant Newsham is a retired U.S. Marine officer and a former U.S. diplomat and business executive who lived and worked for many years in the Asia/Pacific region. He served as a reserve head of intelligence for Marine Forces Pacific, and was the U.S. Marine attaché, U.S. Embassy Tokyo on two occasions. He is a senior fellow with the Center for Security Policy.

[Double Edge]

Couple of promising developments recently

Japan, U.S. draw up plan for any Taiwan emergency -Kyodo | Reuters | Dec 24 2021

Looks like Abe wasn't kidding about Taiwan's defense being Japan's defense

US Marines, under this draft plan, will set up a temporary attack base at the initial stage of a contingency on the Nansei Islands. These islands are a chain stretching southwest from the Japanese prefectures of Kagoshima and Okinawa toward Taiwan. Notably, Okinawa has the bulk of American military installations in Japan.

Japan's Self Defence Forces will support the US military by sending troops to the island nation if a Taiwan contingency appears imminent, the report said citing sources.

The forces of both countries have listed around 40 candidate sites along the Nansei chain. This consist of nearly 200 islands including uninhabited ones.

Japan-Australia pact shows others can move on without India in Quad | The Print | Jan 10 2022

The newly signed Japan-Australia defence agreement should be welcome to New Delhi, but there also ought to be some concerns.

On the one hand, it signals the growing coalescence of a regional counter-hegemonic balancing effort in the Indo-Pacific. This benefits India too because China’s power is as much a problem for India and any effort to counterbalance it should be welcome.

On the other hand, there could also be a warning for New Delhi in these efforts, that others are stitching up formal, institutionalised security cooperation that leave India out.

With two new security treaties now in the region in the space of just a few months—AUKUS being the other—and more potentially on their way,

New Delhi needs to consider seriously whether its continuing scepticism of closer security cooperation with others best serves India’s interest.

Win together or lose together.

Though India and Japan have signed an agreement on ‘reciprocal provision of supplies and services’ between their military forces, it is far more limited when compared to the Japan-Australia agreement. The India-Japan agreement is primarily meant to facilitate military exercises rather than routinise deep military cooperation. The change in Japanese attitude mirrors the change in Australia, which once saw China as an economic and trade partner but now sees it as a clear security threat, forcing Canberra to look for new security arrangements with both regional and external powers.

Though India has signed logistics agreements with the US, Japan & Australia i did not realise the one with Japan was just to facilitate exercises (!)

As satisfactory as it might be to see others balancing against China more vigorously, New Delhi should be careful not to give in to the temptation to free-ride on these efforts and assume that it can relax its own efforts to create a regional balance. While New Delhi is confronting Beijing in the Himalayas, that by itself is not sufficient to create the balance that India needs. Most importantly, while India may be able to hold its own along the LAC today, its situation is likely to worsen as time passes. Even today, it is quite possible that Pakistan may take advantage of any clash across the LAC to make India face a serious two-front problem. Even a joint Chinese-Pakistani venture cannot be ruled out by pragmatic security managers in New Delhi.

There are no free lunches.

i'm sceptical of Pak jumping in. What's in it for them. Nobody has ever come to their help in the past. If ever the Paks join it would be because China forced them.

But even if India can manage a two-front war, it might still end up facing a three-front problem in the next few years. China’s naval expansion is proceeding at a pace that will soon make it a force to reckon with in India’s neighbourhood. Unlike an on-ground confrontation, India simply cannot match China’s naval power, which is based on capital assets that India does not have the money to match. This is especially so when India needs to continue devoting the bulk of its military budget just to hold the line along the Himalayas. And of course, the less said about the continuing mess in India’s defence procurement process, the better.

Have to sign agreements with others to maintain maritime balance. Had a commodore say something similar couple of pages back.

[Officer of Engineers]

PLA tactics changed with Deng. The human wave tactics went away after Mao. Human wave is how poor armies operate.

Misconception about Mao's army. They were not a human wave army. They were an artillery army. The battles between the KMT and the CCP rested on who got the better artillery. Even during the Korean War, the initial Chinese success were due to 4 artillery divisions inside Korea. When the USARMY retreated faster than those guns could keep up, the Chinese had to abandon those guns in the north in order to keep pace with the Americans. As a result, the Chinese got weaker as they got closer to the 38th Parallel while the Americans were getting stronger as they got closer to American firepower.

You've misunderstood what the 2nd Wave is. It's the 2nd invasion attempt and then the 3rd and then the 4th. China can rebuild her invasion forces. Taiwan can't afford to rebuild Taiwan. It would be new ships. New youngsters. New Generals. New admirals. Each and everytime.

[Officer of Engineers]

You have got to be kidding me. They supposedly have the world's largest navy but not enough ships to blockade Taiwan ?

Look at actual wars for the numbers needed. China ain't got any numbers close to the IJN nor the Kreigsmarine and both of them did shit all in stopping the Americans and the Brits. Hell, the IJN couldn't stop the Americans from hitting Taiwan and the USN had to travelled a hell of alot further than the Taiwan Straits.

[Double Edge]

Pfft!!! Cut off Australian single malt supply and you see how fast the CCP backs down. The one thing keeping the CCP in power is rewarding the middle class. Deny the middle class their creature comforts and the wrath of karen soccer moms come bearing down.

Col. Newsham's ideas are to cut of China's access to dollars.

The next is their access to food. For such a populated country they don't grow enough to feed themselves.

Just 10% of China is arable. This is due to their earlier policies of building over fertile land.

[Double Edge]

No, the Mainland has to wait for Taiwan to clear the garbage blocking any subsquent wave. You know, like sunk ships and dead bodies? Kinda hard to dig a fox hole when you can't get to shore or dig through bone and guts before you reach sand.

PLA tactics changed with Deng. The human wave tactics went away after Mao. Human wave is how poor armies operate.

After the Gulf wars, Chinese learnt the massing tactics of the 50s & 60s will no longer work against contemporary American or American trained armies.

It has to be informatised and networked.

This means there won't be a second wave. The first has to establish a beach head of sorts and the rest is reinforcements.

Do or die.

Here's an anecdote for you.

On a trip to China they got to ask one of the PLA officers whether China will take Taiwan.

The reply was we're not strong enough yet but when we are we will.

[Double Edge]

China don't have the ships to do the blockading, especially the east side dof Taiwan. All fanboy talk. As we've all been stating. Amateurs talk strategy and tactics. Professionals talk logistics. Any ship must be at least 200 miles out from Taiwan or be within range of Taiwanese strike packages and that is assuming the RoCN don't venture out to destroy the blockades.

You have got to be kidding me. They supposedly have the world's largest navy but not enough ships to blockade Taiwan ?

They have a lot of ships once you take their militias into account. They have subs to protect those ships.

And if the threat of danger is there which commercial ships are going to venture in ?

It will be a slow process though. Many months to take effect. THIS bit we are all banking on. If the Taiwanese can hold out then it gives the rest of us time to intervene should that decision be made.

But it achieves the first step of isolating the battlefield.

The thinking is unless they can control the SCS such a blockade isn't feasible. They're still a ways off from achieving that.

[Officer of Engineers]

I only got to guard them, Sir, not deliver.

You have to guard Canadian and German beer? Couldn't help it. Too nice of a set up.

[Albany Rifles]

Same place we all get them. The US. Nukes belong to the US. Missiles belong to Australia. Dual National Command Authority release required. You know. The good old days where your nuke techs have to put up with Canadian and German beer because we don't stock American beer.

I only got to guard them, Sir, not deliver.

But there were those MADM/SADM missions I ran...

[Officer of Engineers]

That CCP water boy isn't asking the question. He is taking it as given those Aussie subs could launch nukes.

Pfft!!! Cut off Australian single malt supply and you see how fast the CCP backs down. The one thing keeping the CCP in power is rewarding the middle class. Deny the middle class their creature comforts and the wrath of karen soccer moms come bearing down.

[Officer of Engineers]

China could blockade Taiwan. Nothing gets in or out. How many months can Taiwan last ? they are going to be going at this from all levels.

It's going to take a way bigger airlift than Berlin required to look after 23 million.

China don't have the ships to do the blockading, especially the east side dof Taiwan. All fanboy talk. As we've all been stating. Amateurs talk strategy and tactics. Professionals talk logistics. Any ship must be at least 200 miles out from Taiwan or be within range of Taiwanese strike packages and that is assuming the RoCN don't venture out to destroy the blockades.

[Double Edge]

While a Tomahawk can be launched from the standard US submarine's 21 inch torpedo tubes you have to reduce to the number of Mk48 ADCAP torpedoes it can carry...which is what is wanted for Australia. The Tomahawks can have a dedicated suite of vertical launch tubes installed but I will ask this question...where is the RAN getting a nuke?

That CCP water boy isn't asking the question. He is taking it as given those Aussie subs could launch nukes.

The guy is a FUD & disinfo agent.

My arguments against are as follows. And it goes without saying without you guys and years on this board i would not be able to make them

- China has a nuke deterrence policy. They don't make nuke threats. Their doctrine is to deter nuke attacks on them. Deterrence is not warfighting.
- China has a NFU policy which this guy seems to have forgotten.
- China does not control Taiwan. It cannot use the nuke argument to occupy more land. Can't defend what you do not own in the first place.