Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

[Double Edge]

They call it a standoff, looks like a sit-in



Cannot tell if is real Indian if he doesn't wear a turban : D


Beijing paper admits Chinese troops ‘camping’ on Doklam | Asia Times | Dec 11 2017

Beijing hasn't denied fresh accusations from Indian media that PLA troops have returned to the border area, and have shown no intention of leaving

Two helipads, a dozen prefabricated homes and even shops are among the permanent structures that have been erected there, according to Indian newspapers.

[Officer of Engineers]

Punitive, enough so India does not think of taking over Tibet.

That's not an OPOBJ.

[Double Edge]

The other two ?

[Officer of Engineers]

The other two ?

If you're talking settle the border by force and smash an Indian advance, then history states that those were not the desired OPOBJs. Firstly, the border issue is not settled and the Chinese attacked first instead of waiting to receive an Indian attack. That leaves a pre-emptive attack in which the desire is to surround an enemy formation and destroy it before withdrawing to safety.

But then, the LOC should not have collapsed, ie the advance should not have gone as far as it did. Chinese forward points were vulnerable to an Indian counter-attack. By all accounts, the Chinese did not established defensive points (ie, minefields) which was needed to even protect a withdrawl.

[Double Edge]

If you're talking settle the border by force and smash an Indian advance, then history states that those were not the desired OPOBJs. Firstly, the border issue is not settled and the Chinese attacked first instead of waiting to receive an Indian attack. That leaves a pre-emptive attack in which the desire is to surround an enemy formation and destroy it before withdrawing to safety.

ok, so pre-emptve then, they killed quite a few and took the remainder prisoner

But then, the LOC should not have collapsed, ie the advance should not have gone as far as it did. Chinese forward points were vulnerable to an Indian counter-attack. By all accounts, the Chinese did not established defensive points (ie, minefields) which was needed to even protect a withdrawl.

Don't understand the underlined bit.

What i understand you said is the LOC's did collapse, why i don't know given the logistics support. If they did collapse then they wouldn't have been able to continue for the three weeks or so the conflict lasted

So why have you said their LOC's collapsed in the first place. you're the only one i know who says this.

By the time India could mount a counter attack, it was over. They decided when it started and ended. No need to establish defensive points because no counter attack was possible. Given India's lack of action after, it should have been very clear to the CCP there were no expansionist designs to begin with

Or is that your point. lt ended as quick because they lacked the resources to continue because their LOC's collapsed and called it a day. This means you think they had more in mind or should have given what Mao said but had to settle for less

[Officer of Engineers]

What logistics support? You're just touting numbers, not assets. That 45,000 were nothing more than human mules. Real mules would have been better. How much can one man carry and for how long in that mountain range?

The Chinese anticipated that the Indians would have put up a much better and organized fight. Instead they chased the Indians further into India than they should have and stretched their LOCs beyond their breaking points.

[Double Edge]

Aww, so cute



Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said India and China's strategic interests outweigh "partial frictions",

Tell that to the boys on the border Wang Yi : |

[Double Edge]

What logistics support? You're just touting numbers, not assets. That 45,000 were nothing more than human mules. Real mules would have been better. How much can one man carry and for how long in that mountain range?

The Chinese anticipated that the Indians would have put up a much better and organized fight. Instead they chased the Indians further into India than they should have and stretched their LOCs beyond their breaking points.

Hehe, if all wars could end like this : D

[Double Edge]

The Chinese anticipated that the Indians would have put up a much better and organized fight. Instead they chased the Indians further into India than they should have and stretched their LOCs beyond their breaking points.

Not that India had this idea but the Russians have used space to lure armies in to stretch their LOCs to breaking point and attacker becomes exhausted. Then move in and push them out of Russia

[Double Edge]

Raja Mandala: India and China — Rebuild the trust | IE | Dec 19 2017

One of the main lessons from Doklam is that more confidence building measures on the border are not going to guarantee stability. For, the context in which the CBMs were put since the 1990s has fundamentally changed.

The original directive for the Special Representatives (SRs) was to find a solution to the long-standing boundary dispute. But the negotiations on the boundary dispute were stalled many years ago, and the SRs focused on maintaining peace and tranquillity on the border. The SRs set up multiple mechanisms to maintain peace and tranquillity, but stabilising the border has become hard as the frequency and intensity of the incidents has grown.

As Beijing’s comprehensive national power has grown, it has become more assertive on territorial disputes and its appetite for risk taking has increased. India, which took peace on the border for granted until recently, is ready to throw everything it has to prevent any further weakening of its position. That was the real story about Doklam. Without a renewed effort to resolve the boundary dispute, the Sino-Indian frontier is unlikely to remain tranquil.

As the stronger power today, China might think it can afford to be unilateral — on the frontier as well regional economic initiatives. Without a return to genuine bilateralism that takes into account the interests of both parties, Beijing will find the chasm with Delhi continues to deepen.

Two areas of action present themselves to Doval and Yang. First is the urgent need to distil lessons from the Doklam crisis and prevent the recurrence of another such incident. Reports on Chinese military build-up in the Doklam region and India’s new commitment for vigorous responses suggest that the two sides may not be as lucky the next time.

[Double Edge]

Earlier in the month the water in the Siang turned dark and people got suspicious

Siang River Turns Muddy in Arunachal Pradesh; Suspicion on ‘Chinese Hand’ | The Wire | Dec 07 2017

The alleged ‘Chinese hand’ was reportedly first hinted by former Union minister and Congress MP from Arunachal Pradesh, Ninong Ering, in a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November. In the letter, he mentioned the unusually low level of the water, pointing out that the situation has not improved for weeks together, and that the river is “usually crystal clear” post monsoon showers. Ering also placed the issue under Rule 377 for a discussion in the parliament.

“Since the House is not in session, I am requesting you to use your good office to seek the reason for the river turning muddy in this season, when the water is usually crystal clear,” Ering wrote to the prime minister.

Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Pema Khandu paid a visit to the river near Yingkiong in East Siang district on December 2 and asked the local administration to file a detailed report on the situation. In a tweet later that day, tagging the prime minister’s office, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s official handle, external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and the Union Ministry of Environment, Khandu wrote, “Inspected the Siang river today near Yingkiong, whose water has turned muddy and black – making it unfit for drinking and aquatic life. Have asked the local administration to furnish detailed report on the situation.”

Responding to the developments, Arjun Ram Meghwal, Union minister of state for water resources, river development and Ganga rejuvenation, said on December 3 that it could be due to an earthquake that shook Tibet on November 17. “There is a strong possibility that the colour of the river’s water has changed due to natural reasons,” the minister reportedly said.

In a letter to the minister, Ering has termed the reason “completely absurd”.

And so the MP from Arunachal rejects the natural causes theory put forward by the Union minister of water resources. Don't know how important facts are in politics but opinion is very important...

Later it turns out that the increased unseasonal water turbidity was caused by earthquakes in Tibet

Earthquakes in Tibet Are Behind the Mysterious Darkening of Arunachal’s Siang River | Arunachal Times | Dec 22 2017

Considering the fact that the Siang originates and flows for more than 2,000 km within China, suspicions naturally fell on man-made causes within the country. Reports highlighted Chinese plans to divert the waters of the Tsangpo to irrigate parts of the Taklamakan Desert. The turbidity was thought to have been a consequence of Chinese construction activity, although there was no clear proof to establish this.

Our analysis of this phenomenon indicates that while the causes are completely natural, the potential danger to downstream inhabitants in India is serious and urgent.

The Gyala Peri (7,293 metres above sea level) mountain block lies north of the Yarlung Tsangpo River and west of the Yigong-Tsangpo river. It is here that the Yarlung-Tsangpo cuts the world’s tallest gorge between Gyala Peri and Namcha Barwa (7,782 m). The river then merges with the Yigong-Tsangpo and turns 180° south to flow, as the Siang, into Arunachal Pradesh. On November 17 at 4 am, a 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck below the summit of Gyala Peri. For the next 32 hours, this region was swarmed by five 4+ magnitude earthquakes. A final 4.7 magnitude quake struck the area on November 23. No aftershocks were recorded.

The intense vibrations have triggered a massive chain of landslides. Several satellites have taken images showing approximately a 100 square kilometer area of landslides. The volume of material lost is yet unknown. The satellite has captured dust and debris in the air, indicating the process of sliding was ongoing even 20 days after the earthquakes struck. This landslide is 400 km upstream from Pasighat and 200 km from Geling. The affected part of the river is 30 km in length.

A matter of serious concern is the blockage of the river at three locations along a 12 km stretch of the river which falls in the Bayi District, Nyingchi County. Three dams have formed one behind the other (figure from December 20, 2017). While the dams are significantly smaller than the Yigong dam (catastrophe of 2,000 volume = 3 billion m3 ), it is too early to rule out the possibility of these three dams from merging and becoming larger. Based on preliminary calculations from low-resolution data, the current total volume of the Gyala Peri dams is about one billion m3. Blockage of river flow by debris is unpredictable as the area may be unstable with falling rocks and mud. Real-time satellite monitoring is required to keep track of how the dams are changing allowing the areas downstream in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam to prepare accordingly.

This is perhaps the largest landslide of the year and catastrophically larger than the landslide of April 9, 2000, on the Yigong-Tsangpo, a major tributary of the upper Tsangpo river. The Yigong slide was caused by a similar series of events. Two earthquakes (3.5 magnitude and 4.6 magnitude) struck the Zhamu Creek on April 9, 2000. The landslide blocked the floodplain river creating a dam area of 2.5 square km and 90 metres deep. The natural dam gave way on June 1, 2000, within 12 hours, flooding areas for days all the way to Assam. This was the biggest outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake ever documented in modern history. The surge swept away large forest areas and several bridges along the Siang.

Several elders still remember the intense wave of water that rushed within minutes. Figures circulated in the aftermath claimed 30 deaths and destruction of more than 50 villages in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. The Arunachal Pradesh government put the damage at Rs 100 crore, but the true cost of this event is being felt even many years after the event. Apart from the destruction of bridges, the river deposited sand and debris on terrace farms where the Adi people cultivated their food crops. Several fields still remain spoilt even after 17 years. People also reported the loss of many Mithun, which is vital to the economy and culture of the Adi people.

These floods are referred to as China floods in India. The one in 2000 was caused by a natural dam bursting. At the time no less than ISRO charged the Chinese as responsible for the premeditated release

Well, looks like we might be getting another flood or more soon. That is whenever these natural dams decide to burst.

Earlier suspicions and rumours that implicated Chinese dams upstream the Yarlung Tsangpo are incorrect as images distinctly reveal the origin of the sediments is from the slopes of Gyala Peri. In the aftermath of the 2000 flooding, the Indian media had similarly pointed fingers at Chinese dams, assuming that the event was caused by the breach of man-made dams in China. We now know that it was not a man-made dam and the Chinese government failed to warn India of the possible consequences of a breach. A warning could have significantly minimised the loss of life and property downstream. The evidence presented above shows that a situation akin to June 2000 cannot be ruled out.

A panel of remote sensing experts, geologists, hydrologists and disaster management experts need to be set into action right away for the safety and economy of the people. It is also critical for the people of Arunachal to scientifically study the geography and ecology of the region not only to prepare for disasters but to also develop sustainably.

Hydrological data and more relating to these natural dams is critical to preventing problems further downstream. The man made dams don't in my opinion make much of a difference. A natural dam and its likelihood of rupture is infinitely more important

[Double Edge]

There are three and a half areas of contestation between India & China

- border

- countering their influence in our neighbourhood

- China countering our influence in their neighbourhood, positions on the SCS via quad and more

- Dalai Lama and Tibetans in India

Sp how much progress has been made to date in these areas

Border, nothing, just talk and more.

The next two are recent and growing

The last remains where it was since the Dali lama entered India

Now we can now add another item to the list which is rivers

Where are the break thorughs to come from ? this relationship is a slow motion train wreck for the last fifty years !!

[Oracle]

Chinese road-building team entered 1km inside Arunachal, sent back by Indian Army: Sources

Verified or ... ?

[Double Edge]

The area in google earth

Spoiler!

Interesting place. Just where the Yarlung enters to become the Siang /Brahmaputra

According to local villagers in Arunachal Pradesh, Chinese soldiers were involved in road construction work in the area and that Indian security personnel intercepted them near Bising village under Tuting subdivision.

Can't see any roads from China heading towards Bishing ?

Spoiler!

The villagers informed a local policeman, who in turn alerted the ITBP deployed in Medog, near Bishing.

ITBP post nearby

[Oracle]

The terrain makes it difficult if not impossible to build a road. Having said that, one cannot see a road that is made by the advancing troops by cutting and clearing bushes, from a satellite image.