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Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops
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Originally posted by Firestorm View PostCentral asia could never completely replace Pakistan as a supply route which is why you had to persuade them to reopen the route. And India's problem would be getting supplies to those central asian states in the first place. Our aircraft would have to fly circuitous routes around Pakistan to reach there and we don't have anywhere near the numbers required to mount a serious long range air supply effort. Even NATO with its huge fleet of air transporters needed land routes from a port (Karachi). Iran is not a realistic possibility either. Indian troops would be supporting coalition troops in this scenario and Iran has its own interests and calculations in Afghanistan which may not align with coalition ones. They are also quite chummy with China. The land route from Chahbahar into the heart of Afghanistan is not that well developed either. No Indian General would be comfortable with sending his men into battle with such shaky logistics.
But be that as it may, logistics was not a question with the Soviet request. You could have just piggy back off Soviet logistics. You're using the same equipment and supplies.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post??? The same way we did when Pakistan got in a temper tantrum. Via central Asia. You've also got Iran that we don't.
At least two US Allies, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. I agree 100% with you. It was not in India's interest to go into Afghanistan when asked by Mosow or Washington and hence Dehli didn't. This adds to the fact India will certainly not get into the fight over Taiwan because it absolutely make zero strategic sense to do so. Canada and Australia might due to Treaty Obligations (with or without public approval - note how Canada protected US carriers without public knowledge).
That was the point I was making. DE is reaching for scenarios that is not supported by history. Participation in Afghanistan made a lot more sense than Taiwan and India didn't do so. What could possibly get India to intervene in Taiwan when there is even less of a demand for India?
As for the Chinese I always thought they were like Coors Beer as in "its' the water"
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post??? The same way we did when Pakistan got in a temper tantrum. Via central Asia. You've also got Iran that we don't.
At least two US Allies, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. I agree 100% with you. It was not in India's interest to go into Afghanistan when asked by Mosow or Washington and hence Dehli didn't. This adds to the fact India will certainly not get into the fight over Taiwan because it absolutely make zero strategic sense to do so. Canada and Australia might due to Treaty Obligations (with or without public approval - note how Canada protected US carriers without public knowledge).
That was the point I was making. DE is reaching for scenarios that is not supported by history. Participation in Afghanistan made a lot more sense than Taiwan and India didn't do so. What could possibly get India to intervene in Taiwan when there is even less of a demand for India?
My point was that even if it had been in India's interest to send troops to Afghanistan (and past Indian governments may have even considered it) there were serious practical challenges which made it impossible. That is not the case in a China-Taiwan conflict scenario. If India really wants to intervene, theoretically at least there are options even if it would be extremely ill-advised to do so in my opinion.Last edited by Firestorm; 19 Jan 22,, 07:15.
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Originally posted by Firestorm View PostHow is India supposed to supply and maintain a large ground force in Afghanistan even if it can get one there?
Originally posted by Firestorm View PostDuring the time of the Soviets India was dealing with its own insurgencies in Punjab and Kashmir. It was in no position to send troops anywhere. The experience in Sri Lanka made things even worse. In recent times, once OBL was dead, the coalition troops had no idea what they were doing there and neither did your Generals. Sending Indian troops into that quagmire would have been utterly foolish since the source of funds and training for the insurgency was a US ally.
That was the point I was making. DE is reaching for scenarios that is not supported by history. Participation in Afghanistan made a lot more sense than Taiwan and India didn't do so. What could possibly get India to intervene in Taiwan when there is even less of a demand for India?
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostYou sat out of Afghanistan - TWICE! When your superpower "friend" needed you - TWICE in a country that you have a lot more interest and more effect on you than Taiwan. History tells me Dehli ain't going to do squat.Last edited by Firestorm; 19 Jan 22,, 02:37.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostWould a Taiwan that is anti-India mean anything to Dehli?
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostI put this down to perception issues on our side. However the Chinese have no illusions.
They see like minded, powerful countries in the region upping defense budgets and then exercising together.
There is a common motive.
You might want to reconsider.
Who do you think China will come for after ??? Does it make sense then for India to sit and watch from the sidelines.
I've been looking for a counter from a credible Indian commentator on that bolded bit and found it couple months back from General Dhruv Katoch.
So here it is in a discussion from Nov.
How many PLA divisions can we tie down at the Indo-Tibet border and what can we do in the maritime space
We might not stick to the border but go into Tibet proper. From another discussion in October, General Dhruv Katoch again
He then goes on to describe what a fight would look like.Last edited by Firestorm; 19 Jan 22,, 06:34.
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostHad you decided to go affter the source of the terror you would not have needed to ask.
And the source of our terror was an Al Qaeda HQ. Going after Pakistan would leave that HQ free to do another 11 Sept, on what planet does that make strategic sense?
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostMan, we broke them in two against Chinese & US pressure inside of two weeks. That was fifty years ago and the Banglas recently celebrated their golden jubliee of that liberation.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostNo one to date has been able to explain how the US was not able to bend Pakistan to their will.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostTianamen ? what was the fallout from that.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostNo western arms deals with China.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThey recovered.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostTaking Taiwan i would imagine would be in the same vein.
Originally posted by Double Edge View Postok but we agree on the main motivation.
When i say not their war, well its hard to ignore when Hitler declares war on the US. That was one of his blunders.
As an aside i got to watch this movie recently. It's rare you get the German side being told by the British. But the pilot escapes from POW camp in the UK, gets shipped to Canada, breaks free again and the rest of the movie is his escape to a neutral US.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostAnd ? how does that relate to a Taiwan contingency.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostDoes the west throw up their hands and say this is China's internal affair. If ever that notion catches on in Beijing then they will get cracking.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostTake the long term view. The rhetoric is if China does nothing by 2030 then Taiwan is good ? China has the rest of this century to try and take Taiwan.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThey've stated that numerous times already.
China does not need to march to Delhi. They just need an India that is China neutral.
I don't know how they do that. What i can say is the task gets easier after Taiwan.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThis is assuming they don't come for India first. Because there are some commentators who make that argument as well.
We're preparing for that eventuality.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostI said threaten. They will call the bluff so it better be a good one.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostYou are saying in the event of a Taiwan contingency that China's shipping continues as is ? Interesting
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostWay i look at it is how eager are the Taiwanese to stay independent. After that and however long China takes will determine what other countries do.
What call the US takes.
I'm putting a contrarian view out there because the mainstream Indian view is what you've said. Let this idea get an airing with more people and we will see how they calculate India's stakes after Taiwan joins China.
Those ARE THE ONLY TWO OPTIONS available to India to be of significance to Taiwan. Sail into the Taiwan Straits or march north. Anything else is just hot air ... AND EVERYONE KNOWS IT.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostYou sat out of Afghanistan - TWICE! When your superpower "friend" needed you - TWICE in a country that you have a lot more interest and more effect on you than Taiwan. History tells me Dehli ain't going to do squat.
Man, we broke them in two against Chinese & US pressure inside of two weeks. That was fifty years ago and the Banglas recently celebrated their golden jubliee of that liberation.
No one to date has been able to explain how the US was not able to bend Pakistan to their will.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostYou can't replace 30,000 men, an entire fleet, an airforce, 2000 SSMs that took 20 years to build within months. Never mind the social implications that parents would demand of the CCP why their sons are dead or captured. China would be wrecked just as they were right after Tianamen.
No western arms deals with China. They recovered.
Tianamen is an interesting example. Hong Kong another. Taking Taiwan i would imagine would be in the same vein.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostIt made perfect sense once you understand that the US was anti-Hitler from the start. They were supplying the Brits were war supplies and nevert imagined Hitler winning the way he did. As AR said, once France fell, US entry was bound to happen.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostYou're contradicting yourself. You first said it wasn't their war. It was from the beginning and I explained how it got there.
When i say not their war, well its hard to ignore when Hitler declares war on the US. That was one of his blunders.
As an aside i got to watch this movie recently. It's rare you get the German side being told by the British. But the pilot escapes from POW camp in the UK, gets shipped to Canada, breaks free again and the rest of the movie is his escape to a neutral US.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostChina has a say in that and like it or not, we also cannot allow China to fail. Too much money is tied up in their economic impact across the globe.
Does the west throw up their hands and say this is China's internal affair. If ever that notion catches on in Beijing then they will get cracking.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostYou're acting that China is the new USSR. It's not and nowhere close. Taiwan is NOT under threat of an invasion. The ML CANNOT WIN ONE! 38th Group Army ain't going to march down the streets of Taipei NOR Dehli.
They've stated that numerous times already.
China does not need to march to Delhi. They just need an India that is China neutral.
I don't know how they do that. What i can say is the task gets easier after Taiwan.
This is assuming they don't come for India first. Because there are some commentators who make that argument as well.
We're preparing for that eventuality.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostOh come on! Do the freaking math. You need 3 to 1 attacker to defender ratio, at the very least local superiority. So you want to tie up 10-20 of their divisions. That means at least 20-60 Indian divisions staring at the Tibetan Plateau. Where are the men, machine, and money coming from? And that is assuming the Chinese don't call your bluff and not increase their readiness outside of their local forces.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostNo, you can't. The US ain't going to allow you. Ships doing trade with China aren't Chinese flagged. You will not be allowed to stop IPhone shipments to Europe or North America and you will not be allowed to stop wheat shipments to China that China paid Western countries for.
Way i look at it is how eager are the Taiwanese to stay independent. After that and however long China takes will determine what other countries do.
What call the US takes.
I'm putting a contrarian view out there because the mainstream Indian view is what you've said. Let this idea get an airing with more people and we will see how they calculate India's stakes after Taiwan joins China.Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Jan 22,, 00:35.
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostVery serious. I'm surprised how few Indian commentators even ask that question. Most i've come across say India won't do anything. So it was interesting to hear Gen. Katoch's reply in this regard.
The US - India relationship is asymmetrical in the sense they don't have to help us fight in the mountains but we can't sit out a fight with Taiwan.
The US does not need an alliance with India because India's participation is such a conflict is a given. At least that's how it appears to me.
Good luck getting anything official on this point though. We only get to find out when the balloon goes up.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThis kind of scenario could happen today or a decade ago. It has not because it's not the way China wants to do it.
China isn't looking for a long drawn out fight. They want a soon-ish capitulation by Taiwan.
Now Chinese economy isn't setback decades is it. They can recoup and set their sights further afield and that means an India that is China neutral.
An India that does not have a say or a veto in the affairs of the region.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostYour answer does not make complete sense. If Hitler was making America rich via Canada why does the US have to enter the war in Europe ? they don't.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostStrategically not tolerating an anti-American Europe is what i was going for. Like it or not the Americans had to go in.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostJust as India isn't going to like an anti-Indian Asia.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostWe can tie up 10-20 of their divisions at the border. There's all sorts of things we can threaten to do there.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostAll changes in an Indo-Pacific conflict.
We can interdict their supplies through the Indian Ocean in such an eventuality. Blockades are a slow process.
Whatever is required.Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 16 Jan 22,, 16:39.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostYou can't be serious.
The US - India relationship is asymmetrical in the sense they don't have to help us fight in the mountains but we can't sit out a fight with Taiwan.
The US does not need an alliance with India because India's participation is such a conflict is a given. At least that's how it appears to me.
Good luck getting anything official on this point though. We only get to find out when the balloon goes up.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostTaiwan will wreck the Chinese economy for decades to come. Win or lose. They won't be coming after anyone else until they rebuild their war chest. You know, something like replacing all their spent munitions which undoubtly would include all their conventional SSMs, some 2000+ the last time I checked.
China isn't looking for a long drawn out fight. They want a soon-ish capitulation by Taiwan.
Now Chinese economy isn't setback decades is it. They can recoup and set their sights further afield and that means an India that is China neutral.
An India that does not have a say or a veto in the affairs of the region.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostWWII Europe was very much an American War. No matter how you view the Axis, the simple fact was the Americans could not strategically tolerate anti-American Europe and it would be anti-American simply because of Canada. Canada and the US were each other's largest trading partners and Canada was making American wartime industries rich by supplying Britain. That alone made Hitler anti-American.
Strategically not tolerating an anti-American Europe is what i was going for. Like it or not the Americans had to go in.
Just as India isn't going to like an anti-Indian Asia.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostWould a Taiwan that is anti-India mean anything to Dehli?
The way Napapat put it is,
If (Taiwan) falls the entire security architecture of the United States (in Asia) falls to the ground and i can tell you if India is negatively affected in any future conflict as unfortunately happened in 62 but fortunately not in 2020 well then that is the end of a so-called free and open Indo-Pacific.
The Indo-Pacific becomes a Chinese sea and the Eurasian continent becomes a Sino-Russian land mass.
What does India not want ? dominant power in Asia.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostNot enough. In 1979, China committed 200,000 men to the invasion of Vietnam while keeping a million men to watch the Soviets. The best the Chinese can do is 30,000 men against Taiwan and India ain't the USSR.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostUnless you're sending the InN into the Taiwan Straits, didly squat. The USN guarrantees the trade routes, not the China Navy. China can afford not to go into the Indian Ocean and the USN ain't about to allow India to stop all trade going into the Pacific Ocean.
We can interdict their supplies through the Indian Ocean in such an eventuality. Blockades are a slow process.
Whatever is required.Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Jan 22,, 14:58.
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WWII Europe was very much an American War. No matter how you view the Axis, the simple fact was the Americans could not strategically tolerate anti-American Europe and it would be anti-American simply because of Canada. Canada and the US were each other's largest trading partners and Canada was making American wartime industries rich by supplying Britain. That alone made Hitler anti-American.
Sir, you nailed it. I have said repeatedly that when France fell in 1940 the US was going to be in that war. Congress passed a defense supplemental appropriations bill in late July that year giving the Army more money in one shot than it had received in every budget from 1920 to 1940 combined. US industry, which had been mostly dormant because of the Depression, started to roar to life producing wargoods for the Allies and itself. The US produced over 6,000 military aircraft in 1940...and 28,000 in 1941. Peacetime subscription occurred. The National Guard and all reserves were mobilized. The Navy was sharing escort duties with the RN & RCN in 1941.
The first shots of the war by the US at Pearl Harbor were fired by the USS Ward when it sank a midget Japanese sub off the entrance of Pearl Harbor. The entire crew was made up of Naval Reservists.
If you want to see more about the subject I'd suggest checking out this thread.
https://www.worldaffairsboard.com/fo...es#post1579774
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Originally posted by Firestorm View PostI'm pretty sure the Aussies would stay away as well.
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostYou might want to reconsider.
Who do you think China will come for after ??? Does it make sense then for India to sit and watch from the sidelines.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThis is similar to US deciding to join the war in Europe in WW2. Not their war but in they went and so will we should such a contingency arise.
Would a Taiwan that is anti-India mean anything to Dehli?
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostHow many PLA divisions can we tie down at the Indo-Tibet border
Originally posted by Double Edge View Postand what can we do in the maritime spaceLast edited by Officer of Engineers; 15 Jan 22,, 05:37.
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