Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

[Double Edge]

What? That defeats the purpose of learning. You WANT the lessons to spread far and wide. You want others to know where and how you fucked up. What lead you to make the wrong decisions. How to recognize those mistakes before they become fatal. At times, you may not have made mistakes in which case, your mistake was not to have a contingency. Close door sessions DO NOT lead to brain storming across the entire navy.

One of my lessons is that a bad plan cannot be executed into a good plan just because I stayed up and watch it unfold realtime; hoping to make changes in real time.

Why do others need to know ? Why wouldn't all you said be taken aboard and worked on for the next exercise. I have no reason to doubt it.

I would. Nothing here threatens their area of interests. These exercises are as much of a threat to Chinese SCS islands as they are to Canadian Baffin Islands. You want to scare the Chinese? Hold the exercise within sight of those SCS islands. Otherwise, they can and do ignore them.

Does not directly threaten but its strengthening efforts with others against them. And that gets repeated with other like minded powers in the region.



All done quietly but in plain view.

[Officer of Engineers]

Why do others need to know ?

So others don't make the same mistakes!

Why wouldn't all you said be taken aboard and worked on for the next exercise. I have no reason to doubt it.

Waste of money for ship captains to make the same mistakes over and over again. Is bad enough new mistakes will kill you but you're killing yourself by reapeating old mistakes.

Does not directly threaten but its strengthening efforts with others against them. And that gets repeated with other like minded powers in the region.

All done quietly but in plain view.

Who cares? You're not going into their home waters to learn how to kill them.

[Double Edge]

Did the InN ever got their asses handed to them? If not, no, you have NOT been exercising nor training with the Americans. And yes, we chewed American butt as well got our butts chewed. Learn what doesn't work and fix them; not end of exercise flyovers dog and pony shows,

Waste of money for ship captains to make the same mistakes over and over again. Is bad enough new mistakes will kill you but you're killing yourself by reapeating old mistakes.

Take exercise Talisman Sabre, Aussie's biggest biennial exercise. How does that exercise rank with you ?

https://www1.defence.gov.au/exercises/talisman-sabre-21

Approximately 17,000 military personnel from seven nations are participating on land, air and sea during TS21.

TS21 will run from late June to mid-August 2021, this time frame includes the initial surge of equipment and people and their subsequent departure after the exercise. Exercise activities will peak during 18-31 July 2021.

First thing that stands out is the duration. Late June to mid Aug. That's a good month and a half to get things done.

How does it compare with the latest Malabar ?

The 24th edition of MALABAR maritime exercise, hosted by Indian Navy (IN) in two phases, concluded in the Arabian Sea on 20 Nov 20. Phase 1 of the exercise involving participation by Indian Navy (IN), United States Navy (USN), Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) and Royal Australian Navy (RAN), was conducted off Visakhapatnam in Bay of Bengal from 3-6 November 2020. The second phase was conducted in the Arabian Sea from 17-20 November 2020.

About 3 weeks so half the time as TS21

Phase 1 & Phase 2
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1669481
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1673165

“We are honoured by the professionalism of our partners and look forward to flying together again as we reinforce our mutual desire to improve maritime security in the global commons.”

During the second phase, assets from the four countries carried out photo exercise, night operations, air defence exercises and helicopter cross-deck evolutions.

Additionally, carrier landing approaches, underway replenishment approaches, gunnery exercises, and antisubmarine warfare exercises were conducted.

That was the agenda

The emphasis is on inter-operability rather than war fighting. The strategic signaling is India is not alone.

[Double Edge]

Who cares? You're not going into their home waters to learn how to kill them.

Not India but the other three quad members did exercise in the SCS last Oct. So things are slowly moving in that direction.

Two destroyers & a frigate this time, how many next time

U.S., Japan, Australia Conduct Trilateral Naval Exercises in South China Sea | USN | Oct 19 2020

Participants included John S. McCain, JS Kirisame (DD 104) of the JMSDF, and HMAS Arunta (FFH 151) of the RAN. These exercises marked the fifth time in 2020 that Australia, Japan, and the U.S. have conducted operations together in the 7th Fleet area of operations.

Throughout the naval exercises, participants trained together and conducted trilateral operations designed to increase the allies’ collective ability to maintain maritime security and readiness to respond to any regional contingency. Professional engagement and cooperation with allies and partners is the foundation of regional stability, which fosters peace and prosperity for all nations.

Fifth time in 2020 they exercised together.

HMAS Arunta’s Commanding Officer, Cmdr. Troy Duggan said Australia was continuing to build on its already close relationship with Japan and the United States.

“This activity is a valuable and important opportunity for all three nations,” said Duggan. “Operating with our partners is essential for building and maintaining high levels of interoperability, and contributes to our shared commitment to the security, stability and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region.”

Operations together included surface, subsurface, and air defense exercises, and a variety of other training events to strengthen regional maritime security operations.



“We are grateful to have the opportunity of the trilateral exercise with the United States Navy and the Royal Australian Navy. Especially about HMAS Arunta, I feel the connection. Because I had the chance to conduct the exercise with her when I coincidentally was the commanding officer of JS KIRISAME in 2014.” said CAPT YOKOTA Kazushi, the commander, the escort division eight. “For the regional peace and stability, we are making efforts to maintain and develop a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. The iron bond with our partners is its foundation. Even though COVID-19 spreads, the JMSDF continues to strengthen the relationship with our ally partners.”



“By operating with our close allies in this way, here in the South China Sea, we promote transparency, the rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, all principles that underpin security and prosperity for the Indo-Pacific, so that all nations in the region may benefit," said Cmdr. Ryan T. Easterday, commanding officer, USS John S. McCain.

Interoperability. in the SCS.

Not drilling the killing part yet.

[Double Edge]

So others don't make the same mistakes!

From what i can gather from the nature of IN's exercises in the quad, India is playing just a supporting role in any bigger conflict.

Not an active one so there is no question of coming under US command.

We act if our interests are threatened. How wide do you interpret that ?

That's as far as it goes.

For now.

[Officer of Engineers]

Take exercise Talisman Sabre, Aussie's biggest biennial exercise. How does that exercise rank with you ?

Reads like an Oposed Landing Ex with a designated OpFor (the Americans and the Brits).

How does it compare with the latest Malabar ?

Reads like how not to get into each other's way with two different commands (American and Indian) doing two different operations. Does not read like a joint operation with no single command. About the only thing I see of value is the ASW portion.

Not India but the other three quad members did exercise in the SCS last Oct. So things are slowly moving in that direction.

Treaty members with treaty obligations exercising under an American command. Yeah, India doesn't fit.

From what i can gather from the nature of IN's exercises in the quad, India is playing just a supporting role in any bigger conflict.

It won't even go that far. India will not sink the Iranian Navy while the Americans are busy with the Chinese.

[Double Edge]

Another year, another Malabar. The sea phase is just 3 days long (!)

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1430750024334331905

[Double Edge]

US Indo-Pacific allies maintain trust in Biden despite Afghanistan exit | FT | Aug 29 2021

US allies in Asia have drawn a distinction between President Joe Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and Washington’s commitment to its partners in the region, rejecting claims that the pullout has undermined trust in America’s willingness to defend its friends.

Some commentators have predicted a collapse of US credibility in the wake of its botched exit and China has been quick to try to exploit the tumultuous events as a sign of American decline.

But government officials and defence experts from across the region have told the Financial Times that the comparison between Afghanistan and Washington’s relationship with the rest of Asia is misplaced.

Japan, which hosts the biggest contingent of US military forces in the region, believes the Biden administration’s willingness to co-operate on securing the Indo-Pacific and expand the role of the Quad, a grouping that includes India and Australia, shows the alliance is solid.

“The Biden administration has reaffirmed that [the mutual defence commitment] applies to the Senkaku Islands, applies in cyber attacks amounting to armed attack,” said a senior Japanese official, referring to islands in the East China Sea that are administered by Tokyo but claimed by Beijing.

In Australia, both the government and the opposition have stepped up their commitment to the US alliance.

“I don’t think that the end of America’s military campaign in Afghanistan is going to change that one way or the other or have any significant impact on the centrality of the alliance,” said Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security programme at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think-tank.

He added that the US had gone into Afghanistan partly as a reaction to the dramatic images of the collapse of the Twin Towers in New York on September 11 2001. “The visuals out of Kabul now are similarly stark, and there is a certain overreaction again in the commentary,” he said.



Security experts said the US alliances would become even more critical in countering the threat from an increasingly assertive China, a stated aim of Biden’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. Kamala Harris, the US vice-president, used a long-planned visit to Singapore and Vietnam last week to reassure Washington’s partners in the face of threats from China.

“If the pullout from Afghanistan means that the US will be shifting its resources from the Middle East to east Asia, it’s not necessarily negative for Japan,” said Kazuhiro Maeshima, an expert on US politics at Sophia University in Tokyo.

Lieutenant General Chun In-Bum, a South Korean retired special forces commander, said those in the country who had close ties to the US armed forces retained “great trust” in the American military.

Still, the messy exit from Afghanistan has fuelled discussions over the need for US allies to do more in their security partnerships.

The Taiwanese government has stressed the need to be ready to fight if China realises its threat of attacking. Su Tseng-chang, the premier, said an important lesson should be drawn from Afghanistan that “nobody will help you unless you help yourself”.

For conservatives in Japan, who have pushed for a revision of the country’s pacifist constitution, developments in Afghanistan will strengthen their argument that the country should do more to protect itself.

“People who may have been overly dependent on the US may have been surprised, but my understanding is that President Biden stated the obvious. It’s normal that we need to protect our own country,” said Masahisa Sato, a parliamentarian who leads on foreign affairs for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party.

Toshihiro Nakayama, a foreign policy expert at Keio University, said: “Through what happened in Afghanistan, I think there was a sense that the US-Japan alliance will not be sustainable unless Japan proactively raises its defence capability so it can ensure regional security together with the US.”

Some observers say Washington’s failure to achieve victory in Afghanistan could also cause allies to think twice before joining future US military campaigns. “The US might have more difficulty organising a coalition of the willing for military operations outside Europe and outside east Asia in the future,” said a senior official from an American ally.

In some countries, the Afghanistan pullout has inflamed political divisions. In Taiwan, which China threatens to invade if Taipei refuses unification indefinitely, opposition politicians have painted the US as an unreliable ally. “Events [like] in Afghanistan could likely happen in Taiwan”, said Jaw Shaw-kong, a fringe opposition figure.

The remark triggered fury from the ruling party, which has overseen the closest relations with the US since Washington shifted diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.

In South Korea, events in Afghanistan have fanned discord over the tens of thousands of US troops based in the country to defend against attacks from nuclear-armed North Korea and boosted calls from prominent ruling party politicians to boost military independence.

Opposition groups hit back, saying Kabul’s collapse highlighted both the need for stability in the US alliance and that South Korea should not rush moves to take operational control over the combined US-Korean forces.

But beyond such domestic politicking, experts dismiss a link between Washington’s alliances and its Afghanistan policy. The topic “may be intellectually interesting but not a real comparison”, said the Japanese official.

Reporting by Kathrin Hille in Taipei, Kana Inagaki and Robin Harding in Tokyo, Edward White and Kang Buseong in Seoul and John Reed in Bangkok

[Double Edge]

More naval exercises

6 Naval Task Groups From U.S., U.K., India, Japan and Australia Underway in Pacific | USNI | Aug 30 2017

Exercise Noble union involves UK, Japan & US

Indian contingent is exercising with neighbouring countries

Sivalik and Kadmatt are part of a four-ship Indian Navy Eastern Fleet Task Group that left India in early August for a two-month deployment in South East Asia, the South China Sea and Western
Pacific, according to an Indian Ministry of Defence press release. The other two ships in the task group are destroyer INS Ranvijay (D55) and corvette INS Kora (P61).

The exercises will include drills with the Vietnamese Peoples’ Navy, the Republic of Philippines Navy, Republic of Singapore Navy, the Indonesian Navy and the Royal Australian Navy.

Ranvijay and Kora carried out the exercise with the VPN frigate VPNS Ly Thai To (HQ-012) in the South China Sea on Aug. 18 and then carried out an exercise with the Philippine Navy frigate BRP Antonio Luna (FF 151) on Aug. 23 in the West Philippine Seas. The Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet deployments to Southeast and Northeast Asia have been a regular occurrence over the years, in line with the Indian navy’s extensive bilateral engagements with countries there, along with engagements under the Quad partnership.

[Double Edge]

Unconfirmed but quite possible

Recruitment of Tibetan soldiers in PLA is fraught with dangers & might prove counter productive. Unconfirmed, but quite possible, reports of shooting of 2 MajGen rank Offrs + 6 ORs by newly recruited Tibetan soldiers of PLA near Ngari Gunsa Airbase.

The Tibetan recruits got provoked by foul language used against HH Holy Dalai Lama by Chinese soldiers. All 14 Tibetan soldiers have been taken to unknown place as per last inputs.

https://twitter.com/CaptDKS/status/1432554899275800579

[Double Edge]

Three western theater commanders had to quit in less than a year ? due to health reasons

Gen. Zhao Zongqi was replaced last Dec by Gen, Zhang Xudong (now deceased) who did not make it past June this year and was replaced by Gen. Xu Quiling who did not last past August of this year....

Enter General Wang Haijiang as the current WTC, previously commander of the Xinjiang military district.

Let's see how long he lasts in the job

Chinese general Zhang Xudong who stepped down as head of Western Theatre Command in June dies aged 58 | SCMP | Oct 06 2021

• Zhang, who was replaced as head of the country’s biggest military theatre, had been suffering from cancer and gastrointestinal problems, military sources say
• His replacement, Xu Qiling, stepped down after just two months and is also said to be in poor health amid a spate of illnesses among commanders and troops

Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology institute in Beijing, said many senior officers and commanders on the front line were suffering from gastrointestinal disease and other health problems.

“Working conditions in the low-oxygen, low-temperature, high-altitude Western Theatre Command are tough, with coronary heart disease becoming a common problem among officers and soldiers,” Zhou said.

Not heard much from the Indian side about these kinds of problems.

The ones who serve on Siachen don't always come back 100% (frostbite among others) and are rotated on a regular basis.

But Siachen is 8-10k feet higher than the areas where these Chinese officers are serving.

Research over the last few decades indicates that since World War 1 and 2, stomach illness has been one of the top diseases faced by military servicemen.

A report by Chinese researchers published in May this year found that out of a total of 3,055 army servicemen undergoing field training in the midland of China, 896 showed symptoms of digestive problems.

https://theprint.in/world/former-pla...report/746757/

[Double Edge]

17th corps that was understaffed is now operational. India has two strike corps ready to use against China

[Double Edge]

Q. What happened in Tawang or Uttarakhand recently ? Can you explain these incidents in detail ?
The Chinese have shown captured Indian soldiers in their social media we think from earlier standoffs which are unverified but why hasn't India also done so ?

A. India has so far continued to adopt what is considered a reasonable behavior in international diplomacy. Even with a belligerent neighbor like China, India has been gentlemanly but i don't know how long this will continue. These pictures would come out if not officially then unofficially somewhere from the Indian side.

In Tawang, the Chinese intruded into a new area. We know that in those areas the Chinese don't come very often but having come there they were surprised I'm told by the Indian response.

Indian soldiers were at hand, alert and the moment the Chinese came in there they were not only given a face-off, they were also outnumbered and out maneuvered by the Indian troops there. They were detained for at least three to four hours before hotlines worked.

The Chinese started calling up and asking for their release and of course that was done because there was no harm done. It's not official but sources have said that there was no damage to the Indian defenses in that sector.

So clearly what has changed is the Chinese have become more aggressive and India at the same time has also become more alert than before. It's got more troops on the border, gaps have been plugged in areas like Tawang and eastern AP.

Today the Chinese find it surprising there are more face-offs because India has upped its game in those areas. They have moved more forward than ever before, more formations, more troops, more technology ie. surveillance equipment.

So therefore the response from the Indian side has been quicker than ever before and this surprises the Chinese.

In Barahoti, it is common for the Chinese to come in large numbers, stay for some hours and then go back. This recent episode occurred after many months. I would say again India stood there and they went back. There was no physical face-off.

But Tawang was different. Tawang i think they were testing, probing Indian reaction and perhaps they were surprised by the Indian reaction and therefore i would think this is not delinked from what happened in Barahoti and Tawang.

What happened in the 13th round of talks on Sunday would be also reaction to what was done in Tawang by the Indian soldiers. It's a complete seamless border despite different sectors. And I won't be surprised if China's obduracy at the 13th round of talks is linked to what happened in Tawang.




Q. Government functionaries have been on record stating that the area commanders have a freer hand in dealing with local exigencies. Any evidence of this vis-a-vis recent developments ?

A. Oh indeed, as i mentioned in my eastern Arunachal Pradesh trip. I could see the leeway the local commanders have now to move troops and equipment which was not the case earlier. Even when there is a face-off the local commanders have a reasonable say or latitude to handle the situation as they see fit. Instead of going back up the chain taking instructions and then taking action. I think that has changed.

There is much more confidence amongst Indian troops on the ground because of what happened in Galwan and subsequently the counter measures on the Kailash range and the disengagement that took place on the north bank of Pangong Tso where in the finger area.

Overall this last one years incidents on the border has changed completely changed the attitude of the Indian commanders who are much younger. Who do not carry any baggage from 1962 and the forward movement by the Indian military both the air force and the army has meant that there is much more confidence about the ability to take on the Chinese even in smaller numbers wherever they try to create problems.

i think this is a complete change from my own experience in the northeast many years ago and in Ladakh in the past decade or so that one must feel reassured about



Q. Where do we go from here ? Are we forever going to be in talks whilst repeated incursions keep happening ?

A. I think there will be a cut-off point where India will determine for itself how reasonably well protected and well defended the Indian border is. What the preparation is so i think at the moment this approach suits India that if the talks get prolonged for another six months or so, This second winter of 2021 would mean that all our fortifications and all our defenses in Ladakh as well as offensive capability will fully be in place. So anything that happens in 2022 can then be taken on with greater confidence.

I think from here we go to a state where India now not only strengthens its defenses but also reasonably gets ready for an offensive operation when required and which is what the Chinese are aware.

What happened in 2020 was the manifestation of the Chinese understanding that India is getting stronger and stronger in terms of infrastructure, in terms of deployment, in terms of surveillance capabilities and therefore they wanted to stop it there.

So now having stung India what the Chinese have done, in a way is that the stalemate which was there earlier, the moderate approach that India had taken that there is enough time to build infrastructure or not have enough forces there has got all got a new impetus.

So what India would have done in five years in terms of building infrastructure, building strength has now been done in two years. There's a rebalance of forces, there is 1 Corps from Mathura which is now looking after Ladakh as an offensive formation. 17 mountain strike corps which was supposed to be a swing formation between east and the west is now completely dedicated to the east which means the the eastern command of the Indian army now has four corps, three in a defensive role and the 17 mountains strike corps in an offensive role.

Therefore this is what the Chinese have achieved. By their tactical aggression, they have actually lost India strategically. They have provoked India into doing things which India would have done in five years time frame, in two years because of the Chinese aggression. That is China's loss.

We'll have to go through this winter which starts at the end of October and be very careful, very watchful in the coming months.

The next step for India is to strengthen defenses, get the winter stocking right, get all the habitats in place which has already started but still further refine it as we go along

New WTC needs to make an impression. He thinks India is being unreasonable and unrealistic. India must accede to whatever China wants ?

PLA made a recent incursion into Tawang and found themselves detained for a few hours. HAHA!

A move that shows confidence by the Indian forces.

They started putting out photos of Indian troops they detained in the past. Indian side isn't playing that game though.

The latest meet concluded sooner than expected. This means instead of taking 13-14 hours it concluded in nine hours.

Looks like the boys are spending another winter in the mountains.

As this drags out we are making good progress with border infrastructure.

[Double Edge]

Japan's upcoming lower house elections are important to how China policy in that country is to be framed

Memo to Kishida: Komeito’s Cozy Relationship with China Risks Japan’s Security | Japan Forward | Oct 19 2021

The present LDP is in a coalition with the Komeito party. This party as luck would have it is friendly towards China. So they do China's bidding in opposing changes to Japan's article 9

What's more troubling is this party also controls the ministry of Infrastructure, land and transportation.

Why is that important ? The Japanese coast guard comes under the MILT (!)

Komeito has not only acted as a brake on efforts at revising Article 9, the so-called peace clause, of the postwar Constitution, and drafting more proactive security legislation. It has curiously been able to maintain a stranglehold on the position of Minister of Infrastructure, Land, and Transportation (MILT).

One smaller party in a coalition consistently having the portfolio for a particular ministry might not be odd if that party is especially knowledgeable in that field, but this does not seem to be the case. Readers can easily see how vested interests, corruption, and other problems will emerge (if they have not already).

While some observers argue that Komeito’s influence over the LDP is waning, citing the high numbers of seats the LDP usually wins, they usually overlook the fact that the LDP wins precisely because of the Komeito’s foot soldiers. Instead, the reality is:

(1) the LDP cannot win elections without Komeito;
(2) the LDP cannot have a majority without Komeito; and
(3) the LDP cannot easily pass legislation without the support of Komeito.

Some party insiders point to even more serious reasons why relations with Komeito need to be ended, noting the LDP’s over-reliance on Komeito is bad for the party’s identity and policies.

They point out that it is necessary to break Komeito’s hold on the ministerial position over MILT, as all information on infrastructure projects in Japan —especially roads, highways, ports, and airports— among other critical data, are evidently leaked to China and other foreign governments via Komeito.

MILT has jurisdiction over the Japanese Coast Guard, and the JCG is greatly hampered in its ability to deal with the threat the People’s Republic of China poses daily in Japan’s Senkaku Islands and surrounding waters.

It is unhealthy to have a party historically close to the PRC, and which looks away from China’s human rights transgressions and other behavior that goes against international norms, in charge of the men and women who are responsible for protecting Japan’s waterways and coastlines.

Just like it would be dangerous to have a police chief in bed with organized crime, or a minister in charge of Health, Labor, and Welfare in the palms of the pharmaceutical companies, so to would it be deeply worrisome for the minister in charge of the coast guard so close to the country whose ships routinely harass Japanese fishermen and which permits the use of force on Japanese ships in Japanese waters through the revision to its Maritime Police Law.

Not only in the ministry, but also in the Diet the Komeito has acted to limit the ability of the JCG to respond. There have been calls to revise the Japan Coast Guard Law in response to the new Chinese maritime law going into effect, but Komeito and pro-China members of the LDP (of which there are quite a few) have helped to stall discussions.

What should happen ?

If Kishida’s LDP wins the upcoming general elections on October 31 and he is chosen prime minister again, he should immediately take away the MILT post from Komeito and assign it to someone with a true interest in protecting Japan’s waters and infrastructure.

Komeito could have another, less potentially dangerous, post. This long-needed move would clearly raise morale in the JCG, which cannot truly perform its mission knowing its political bosses are close to the PRC.

Unbelievable !!!

[Double Edge]

John Oliver felt the need to talk about Taiwan recently. The only episode he has done on Taiwan as a result of a petition he do it.

Taiwan is becoming a mass people issue now.

Taiwanese parliament does not seem very different to Indian parliament

14:25 The United States in one of our communiques with the people's republic of china acknowledged the PRC position that Taiwan was part of china but the United States also did not accept the PRC claim to Taiwan. That has been our position ever since and so in effect the US views Taiwan's status as undetermined