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Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

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  • What are you talking about? A Seoul-Taipei alliance will see a South Korean Army on their way to the Yalu if a Chinese Fleet sails East. There is ZERO hope for any North Korean army to march South these days. That in turn will drag whatever armies Beijing has in mind for a Taiwan invasion to reposition to move into North Korea because the Chinese have exactly ZERO stores in North Korea.
    Chimo

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    • By zero stores you mean China would have to defend the Norks ?

      They will have to defend their border with NK goes without saying.

      But you are saying they will have to move in and push south to hold the south koreans back.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 24 May 21,, 04:21.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        By zero stores you mean China would have to defend the Norks ?
        I mean there is zero pre-positioned Chinese arms storage in North Korea so that all China has to do is to ship the men and not the weapons. The last time an American army was that close to the Yalu, Mao sent 300,000 troops to drive the Americans out of North Korea. So, the question is would the Chinese trade an American controlled Army in North Korea for a Mainland Army that may or may not stay in Taiwan? I remind you that the Chinese have plans to invade North Korea themselves to rid of Kim so that the Americans don't have an excuse to invade North Korea.

        Beijing's ONLY saving grace in this is that Seoul has absolutely zero intentions to march North if the PLAN sails east.
        Chimo

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          Beijing's ONLY saving grace in this is that Seoul has absolutely zero intentions to march North if the PLAN sails east.
          Things have changed since we were Lieutenants, Colonel. Back then, some would say the US Army was in Korea to keep the ROKs from going North on their own!
          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
          Mark Twain

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            What are you talking about?
            South Korea is compromised already.

            Because North Korea reduces the military pressure China faces from the United States in the contingency of Taiwanese independence.

            North Korea’s Strategic Significance to China (pdf) | Shen Dingli | 2006

            Even if China would not ask for it, a nuclear North Korea’s ability to pin down U.S. forces in a Taiwan Strait contingency deters America’s consideration of possible military intervention.

            Whether one likes it or not, this is the link between North Korea and Taiwan.
            To date AFAIK discussions on this board have treated Taiwan and NK as separate.

            But in reality they're linked.

            Linked to the time there is no peaceful reunification between China & Taiwan. At which point NK's value to China decreases.

            Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            A Seoul-Taipei alliance will see a South Korean Army on their way to the Yalu if a Chinese Fleet sails East. There is ZERO hope for any North Korean army to march South these days. That in turn will drag whatever armies Beijing has in mind for a Taiwan invasion to reposition to move into North Korea because the Chinese have exactly ZERO stores in North Korea.
            Referring to Shen's paper....

            With a shared border of 1,400 kilometers, North Korea acts as a guard post for China, keeping at bay the tens of thousands of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. This allows China to reduce its military deployment in Northeast China and focus more directly on the issue of Taiwanese independence. To a certain extent, North Korea shares the security threat posed by U.S. military forces in South Korea and Japan.

            The United States has to maintain military pressure in the Korean Peninsula to prevent North Korea from taking pre-emptive action. However, the deterrent that North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons obtains could further restrict the U.S. military’s room to take action in the Korean Peninsula. The net effect of this also helps to contain the freedom of U.S. policy choices regarding Taiwan. Whether China needs it or not, this is North Korea’s “contribution” to China’s national security, and China is, therefore, unlikely to ignore its strategic value.
            That's why China does not have much supplies in NK

            Marching to the Yalu which is the Chinese NK border is ignoring the resistance the Norks can put in the way.

            Naturally, if Taiwan does not declare independence and if China can eventually achieve reunification, the aforementioned complications are greatly reduced. But this process won’t take place overnight. Therefore, the linkage between North Korea and Taiwan will remain, whether China needs it or not. The logical extension of this, as some perceive it, is that following the resolution of the Taiwan question, the possible strategic value that China held with North Korea and its nuclear arms would disappear. To an extent, this is reminiscent of the United States’ dependence on China to counterbalance the Soviet Union, which ended after the Cold War.
            I think South Korea is compromised, Shen Dingli goes further to say NK constrains US actions in the event of a Taiwan contingency.
            Last edited by Double Edge; 24 May 21,, 15:05.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              A Seoul-Taipei alliance will see a South Korean Army on their way to the Yalu if a Chinese Fleet sails East.
              The reason such an alliance does not exist is the same as there not being one between Tokyo and Taipei

              Breaks with the one China policy and will be seen as belligerent by China. In the sense it blocks more of China's exits to the Pacific. Miyako and the gap between Korea & Taiwan.

              To be clear i'd very much like to see more collaboration between Taipei & Seoul and in turn with Tokyo.

              The present US alliance structure might deter a war but it offers very little to counter grey zone tactics directed by China at Taiwan or Japan.

              The alliance is good for war time not so much peace time.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                South Korea is compromised already.
                Oh for Pete sakes. 80% of North Korean military forces is within 100 miles of the DMZ and they don't have the ability to move. That means the North Koreans already did half the job for the South Koreans. Isolation and Reduction. The NKs have already isolated themselves for the South Koreans to reduce.The remaining 20%? They're internal security just in case rogue officers decide to mutiny. Get through 100 miles after the DMZ and the country is wide open. South Korea can hit all launch sites before the nukes are ready. It would be an extremely brutal and bloody fight. But it would also be a damned short one.

                The two most powerful Chinese group armies, 38GA and 39GA are on the North Korean border. Shen is a fucking idiot.

                The reason why China has zero supplies in North Korea is because the Kims are freaking lunatics. They would dispell the illusion that they're Gods if they openly shiow their citizens that they rely on China. After all, it was KJU who invented the atomic bomb and designed rockets that can hit the US and it was the Kims who won the Korean War, not China. In fact, Chinese war graves are the worst kept cemetaries in North Korea and that is saying something when you see regular cemetaries.

                Who the hell cares about the 1 China policy? There was no One China Policy during the Cold War and that was when we needed China the most. You think anyone cares once the shooting starts?

                THINK!
                Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 24 May 21,, 21:39.
                Chimo

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                  Things have changed since we were Lieutenants, Colonel. Back then, some would say the US Army was in Korea to keep the ROKs from going North on their own!
                  There has to be a reason why Seoul still don't have OPCON after asking for it for 30 years.

                  It has been a confusing mess though. At one point, China's Deng Xia Peng wanted the Americans to stay in a future unified Korea in order to stop a war between that future unified Korea and Japan.
                  Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 24 May 21,, 21:34.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • I'm not sure if this was posted here so apologies if it is a repeat. The article is from back in January. But it shows that there has been a significant reassessment of the Chinese threat within the IA because of last year's confrontation and it seems to be leading to some permanent changes.

                    Army plans to keep 2 strike corps for mountains facing China amid Ladakh crisis

                    New Delhi: Amid the continuing stalemate with China in eastern Ladakh, and with the proposal for Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) yet to come into effect, the Army is looking to keep two strike corps for the mountains facing China as part of a larger restructuring plan, ThePrint has learnt.

                    Defence sources said two existing strike corps — I Corps and 17 Corps — will be slightly restructured to focus on the northern and eastern theatres respectively, to tackle any threat from China. The restructuring is likely to be implemented by this month.


                    The Army currently has four strike corps — the Mathura-based I Corps, the Ambala-based II corps, the Bhopal-based 21 Corps and the partially-raised 17 Corps. The primary role of a strike corps is offensive trans-border action against an adversary.

                    A defence source said the I Corps, which was earlier responsible only for the western theatre bordering Pakistan, is now being realigned to also look at the northern theatre.

                    “Similarly, the Panagarh-based 17 Corps, which is the only existing mountain strike corps, will keep its focus only the eastern theatre,” the source said.

                    The eastern sector broadly covers Sikkim and Northeastern states’ borders with China. The northern sector broadly covers areas of Ladakh and J&K, while the central sector covers the areas south of eastern Ladakh and the borders that Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand share with China.

                    Currently, the I, II and 21 Corps focus on the western border facing Pakistan, while only the 17 Corps focuses on China. The 17 Corps, sanctioned in 2013, was supposed to have two divisions instead of the regular three, but only the 59 Division now based in Panagarh was raised — the other was among the raisings shelved due to financial constraints. Earlier this year, some elements of the 17 Corps had also been deployed in eastern Ladakh.

                    The sources said the plan is to get the I Corps to also focus on the northern theatre with two infantry divisions. An armoured division, earlier part of the corps, is likely to be employed as an Army headquarters reserve focusing on the western theatre.

                    The 17 Corps, meanwhile, will be given an additional division from an existing corps to enhance its capability and focus on the eastern theatre. This will not be a fresh raising, and it is not clear where this division will be based.

                    The 17 Corps debuted last year in a massive exercise called ‘HimVijay’, which also saw the IBGs concept in action. ThePrint had earlier reported that there are also plans for the 17 Corps to get its own artillery brigade.

                    Last year, Army chief General M.M. Naravane had said it is expecting a green light from the Union government to set up the first of the IBGs — self-contained, agile, brigade-sized fighting units — at 9 Corps, which is deployed at the western border with Pakistan. However, the plans got delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

                    Sources said the Army is also planning to realign a division from an existing corps to focus exclusively on the central sector with China. This division is likely to be under the central command and will focus on the central theatre, thereby strengthening the offensive options in case of any protracted conflict with China.

                    “The western theatre is being reorganised in such a way that two strike corps continue to focus on that front with adequate support from the existing holding corps (those deployed for defensive options) to retain the offensive options against Pakistan,” a second defence source said.

                    The M777 Ultra Lightweight Howitzers — meant for mountainous terrains — will be handed over to the artillery regiments allotted to these formations facing China.

                    Asked about the need for the restructuring, the source quoted above said the decision is especially critical given that the stalemate with China continues in eastern Ladakh, and talks have been unable to break the impasse.

                    “After the restructuring comes into place, troops will train according to the new operational tasks and be prepared for contingencies in the mountains in any sector,” the source said.

                    These changes are quite significant. The IA has long been accused of being too Pakistan centric and not paying enough attention to the Chinese threat. Seems like they have decided to change that. It is high time too I think. While the infrastructure advantage that the Chinese enjoyed all along the border has been slowly eroding for a while, the force advantage that the IA enjoyed earlier has also eroded considerably. The Chinese forces in Tibet are far better equipped than they used to be and their deployment has also changed. They have a lot more troops and equipment available closer to the border now than they used to. Even after the latest talks and disengagement, while the forces have pulled back, they aren't going anywhere. The threat of a hot war in the east is going to continue to remain much higher than in the west for the foreseeable future.


                    Comment


                    • Good speech by the Aussie PM at the G7 summit



                      Work out a way free of coercion

                      The jungle is growing back and we need to tend to the gardening with renewed clarity, unity & purpose

                      A strategic balance that favours freedom and allows us to be who we are

                      Last edited by Double Edge; 09 Jun 21,, 19:21.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                        I'm not sure if this was posted here so apologies if it is a repeat. The article is from back in January. But it shows that there has been a significant reassessment of the Chinese threat within the IA because of last year's confrontation and it seems to be leading to some permanent changes.

                        Army plans to keep 2 strike corps for mountains facing China amid Ladakh crisis

                        These changes are quite significant. The IA has long been accused of being too Pakistan centric and not paying enough attention to the Chinese threat. Seems like they have decided to change that. It is high time too I think. While the infrastructure advantage that the Chinese enjoyed all along the border has been slowly eroding for a while, the force advantage that the IA enjoyed earlier has also eroded considerably. The Chinese forces in Tibet are far better equipped than they used to be and their deployment has also changed. They have a lot more troops and equipment available closer to the border now than they used to. Even after the latest talks and disengagement, while the forces have pulled back, they aren't going anywhere.
                        Yeah, posted this back in Jan.
                        .
                        It amuses me, they took nearly ten years to raise half a mountain strike corps and then decided we could have two in less than a year.

                        The threat of a hot war in the east is going to continue to remain much higher than in the west for the foreseeable future.
                        CCP want to tell us that see, we got you to run around in Ladakh and we can do that any where on the LAC. Make it ruinously expensive unless we do what they want. Lol.

                        More moves are afoot. Force integration. Theatre commands. More joint-ness.

                        There are 17 commands presently. 7 for the army, 7 for the IAF and 3 for the IN !!!

                        All Silos with their own approaches to war fighting.

                        No more bogarting. Pass them stogies along

                        Took 19 years to get a CDS and now they want to run.

                        19 years because CDS was a recommendation of the ?? Kargil committee. Yay!!




                        Nitin's packed in quite a lot in 15 mins.

                        Two major theatre commands are to be sanctioned in the next 2-3 months and implemented over the following 6-8 months.

                        The maritime theatre command. HQ in Karwar. Includes
                        - Western naval command (Bombay HQ),
                        - Eastern naval command (Vishakapatnam HQ) ,
                        - the A&N command in a scaled down format, commander here is being downgraded
                        - the Southern air command (Trivandrum HQ),
                        - Two land based forces, an amphibious brigade also based in Trivandrum and the 108 mountain brigade based in Port Blair.

                        To be headed by a 3 star vice admiral. So all the C-in-C's of those commands report to the vice admiral.

                        This command is coming together faster than the next.

                        The integrated national air defense command. yet to figure out where the HQ will be. Allahabad, Lucknow or Nagpur are the contenders.
                        Assets held by the three forces will take time to integrate as there are different systems. Mindsets have to change from working for the individual services to their counterparts in the other two services.

                        There are further plans for army centric theatre commands as well.
                        - One for the western theatre, Southern army command & South western army command will be dovetailed in the western theatre.
                        - One Northern command for J&K + Pakistan along with the Indo Tibet border west of Nepal.
                        - Eastern command handles the border east of Nepal.

                        These are the preliminary plans for now. Once the CCS approves the two theatre commands the PM may declare them from the Red Fort this August

                        Within the next five years. All three services need to think jointly. Warfighting in the 21st century will be short, swift, unpredictable, technology driven.

                        It's not easy to pull off this theaterisation business. Old habits die hard.

                        The Americans started in 1984 and after five years at it sacked nearly 60 generals who were opposed.
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 11 Jun 21,, 08:36.

                        Comment


                        • Arms acquisition. Everybody wants it. Getting it done is frustrations galore as the Aussies are discovering with their subs plan



                          All sounds so familiar

                          Comment


                          • Been waiting for Nitin to cover Sumdurong Chu. His first assignment in military conflict reporting as a rookie.



                            It was decided the best way to tackle the Chinese was to meet them with strength. What started off with 200 troops built up to a brigade then 3 and finally we had 3 divisions facing them in Arunachal. Sundarjee's plan. Didn't meet with approval from Rajiv but the general got his way in the end. Whatever logistics problems were overcome and we had 105mm guns brought to the area. All this back in 1986.

                            PLA backed off and soon after relations were restarted with Rajiv meeting with Deng in 1988.

                            We're back to that point now given the Chinese reneged on all agreements made since 1993. Before Sumdurong we never patrolled disputed areas, after, we did. In fact what started Sumdurong was patrolling to the Wangdung grazing ground. If we consider the Pangong disengagement we're back to the same state. Neither patrols to their perception lines any more. Same with Depsang.

                            This phase will continue for a while i think. No action expected this year due to the CCP's centenary, next year sees XJP getting another extension and the winter olympics at years end.

                            2023 on we could see more action. In the meantime they continue to reinforce their positions in Tibet. We continue to build infrastructure wherever we see fit.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Jun 21,, 16:18.

                            Comment


                            • Galwan. A year on. Two takes



                              Arzan thinks its the political coercion that India applied that made the Chinese settle. The loss of India's market in concurrence with other actions they were facing.



                              Gen. Hasnain says if China wants to dissuade India from joining any US led alliance then showing up at the border is their way of conveying the message that India is alone there.

                              How do they do that ? a war, limited war, border war or just mass on one area of the border.

                              Since there is no chance of US troops showing up he thinks China can take more risks when it comes to India unlike against other US allies in the region.

                              Those risks only go so far. Galwan upset things and they lost their momentum after.

                              Comment


                              • China's actions in the region can be characterised as grey zone coercion.

                                Was happy to hear Gen. Kapoor mention coercion but getting Indian commentators to mention both is rare.

                                I also hear people saying deterrence is failing or eroding if China can take these actions.

                                Grey zone coercion is like some one running up to you as if to throw a punch but pulling it at the last second.

                                Deterrence is about preventing contact. So long as they pull their punches deterrence is working.

                                It isn't difficult to deter the Chinese because they will not make contact unless they are 100% sure of a win. They wont gamble on their own accord.

                                I say not difficult because actions can be taken to complicate their calculations.

                                Cannot prevent them from attempting to throw a punch unless there is a strategy of counter coercion.

                                And from what i can see in the region no one has such a strategy. So everybody has to just grin and bear it.

                                The Taiwanese & Japanese end up wearing out their aircraft each time they have to scramble to intercept Chinese planes straying close to their air space.

                                We have to mobilise anywhere on the border if they show up.
                                Last edited by Double Edge; 15 Jun 21,, 13:52.

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