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Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
India is going to backfill squat. Is India going to sink the Iranian Navy? Check the Russian Navy in the Indian Ocean?
This is about China. Who else in Asia can help the US to the extent India can ?
Russia does not have much presence in the Indian Ocean.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
You do know that the USN faces more than one adversary.
So the US works to strengthen regional allies & partners to better address those threats.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
All these a platitudes that amongst to zero co-operation between the participants.
Cooperation in terms of what ? quad already announced three areas where they will do just that.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
QUAD is a dog and pony show and everyone knows it.
Unless there is a military component quad cannot deter China. That will happen if China pushes more. The outlines of just such a strategy are present already.
But that does not mean quad is worthless. In fact this dog an pony thing is the very notion i'm challenging with my previous posts and again below.
This is the Chinese idea of unrestricted warfare. Unpacked so we can better understand what the game is.
And they've been at it a few years already. The world is only waking up to this recently. Getting more traction.
Conventional makes up just 6 of those 15 domains.
You think Quad could help out with the remaining 9. Low hanging fruit these.
It will require a concerted effort among allies and partners and since Biden is big on all of that we should be in good hands.
What will you use otherwise ? the UN, heh. What ?
We saw how limited the UN was in the pandemic. Vaccine drives are a result of individual countries right now,
Listen to the General explain this better than anyone i've heard to date.
Unless there is a military component quad cannot deter China. That will happen if China pushes more. The outlines of just such a strategy are present already.
You're not getting it. You think it's about China. The Americans don't need India to deter China. She has the RAN and all her NATO partners who frankly brings a hell of a lot more firepower than India can dream off. There's a reason why the Americans ain't naming China, or rather not specifically naming China, and that is to drag India into a loose net to confront Iran and Russia.
But that does not mean quad is worthless. In fact this dog an pony thing is the very notion i'm challenging with my previous posts and again below.
Oh soft power. Soft power is pure balonely. I know. Canadian politicians have been touting soft power 20 years ago. You want to know what changed? Two entire brigades committed to combat in Yugoslavia and then Afghanistan. Tell me, India has way, way, way more money and influence than Pakistan. How is soft power working out for India? Hell, how is soft power working out for China?
This is the Chinese idea of unrestricted warfare. Unpacked so we can better understand what the game is.
And they've been at it a few years already. The world is only waking up to this recently. Getting more traction.
Tried 30 years. I've read this bullshit when it first came out. Also Assasin's Mace. You should also read up on Warzone Campaign ... and where is Chinese soft power today? I've been following Chinese military thinking for over 40 years and I'm going to tell you, they publish more wishful thinking that when smacked against reality, came crashing down. There's a reason why they're building runways in the SCS and it's NOT because their soft power is working.
Listen to the General explain this better than anyone i've heard to date.
This can all reduce down to two things. Money and armies. Anything else is trying obscure the fact that you need money to do things and you need an army to protect your money. Without an army, someone else's army will take your money.
No matter how you want to paint this is about China, the fact remains that American and Indian strategic outlooks DO NOT converge in the only place that matters to India, the Indian Ocean. The best that can be said is that both will stay out of each other's way but to help each other? Like I said, would India sink the Iranian Navy and harrass Russian subs up the ying-yang?
IF the Americans were to confront the Chinese, they NEED to be sure that the Iranians and the Russians will not be playing spoiler in the Indian Ocean and frankly, that is not within India's strategic interest to prevent them.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
Says who? You? A specific threat was left out for a very specific reason. You can't say no if you're never asked.
Iran blocks the flow of energy out of the gulf then we have to do something. We need the oil from there more than you do.
The Gulf is in in our AO. If you notice we're aligning with the Gulf Arabs more than Iran. Oil & expatriates.
What the Arabs would like is some sort of defense arrangement. When that happens is anyone's guess.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
You're joking! Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.
Taiwan does not even have a civil defense drill for an invasion. Their drills are for typhoons only. It's like they don't expect to be invaded. And if it happens then the Americans will come save them.
Their equipment is twenty years old. Military isn't a respected profession in Taiwan, oddly enough. The pays are not good. There is attrition. The young aren't signing up like they used to.
Japan, Col. Grant Newsham has already pointed out the deficiencies. The mistaken assumption i had was to think these three US Asian allies are as tightly integrated as NATO.
NO! not by any stretch. Big eye opener that was.
Korea is an wild card right now. The govt there isn't very cooperative to the US.
PDI is about setting up interceptors to deter Chinese missile strikes on US infrastructure.
How many countries can the US rely on for basing those interceptors ?
Lot of open questions when it comes to those three countries.
I want to see joint coast guard patrols between Japan & Taiwan.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
Iran would strongly disagree.
Explain
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
India is not an ally. Nothing is asked. Nothing is promised.
I'm not seeing opposition to the idea in the defense community. Unthinkable ten years ago.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
The ONLY thing that would matter - a direct military commitement to the defence of trade routes.
We've had anti-piracy operations for over a decade now.
We said free and open indo pacific so this is included.
Why do you doubt it.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
You're not getting it. You think it's about China. The Americans don't need India to deter China. She has the RAN and all her NATO partners who frankly brings a hell of a lot more firepower than India can dream off. There's a reason why the Americans ain't naming China, or rather not specifically naming China, and that is to drag India into a loose net to confront Iran and Russia.
RAN is part of the equation. France & the UK can help.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
Oh soft power. Soft power is pure balonely. I know. Canadian politicians have been touting soft power 20 years ago. You want to know what changed? Two entire brigades committed to combat in Yugoslavia and then Afghanistan. Tell me, India has way, way, way more money and influence than Pakistan. How is soft power working out for India? Hell, how is soft power working out for China?
China has economic linkages. How do you deal with that.
Decoupling, supply chain redundancy.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
Tried 30 years. I've read this bullshit when it first came out. Also Assasin's Mace. You should also read up on Warzone Campaign ... and where is Chinese soft power today? I've been following Chinese military thinking for over 40 years and I'm going to tell you, they publish more wishful thinking that when smacked against reality, came crashing down. There's a reason why they're building runways in the SCS and it's NOT because their soft power is working.
Multiply this by whatever ports China has in the entire region.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
It ain't going to be QUAD.
An American Carrier Group being flanked by Canadian and Australian task forces.
You're thinking purely military and ignoring civil.
Yes it will deter.
How willing are people to do that.
Only US FONOPS traverse territorial waters in the SCS. Not NATO AFAIK.
I will clarify this further in a post later.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
And just to push the point, we asked for Indian soldiers in Afghanistan. India, justifiably, said so.
This can all reduce down to two things. Money and armies. Anything else is trying obscure the fact that you need money to do things and you need an army to protect your money. Without an army, someone else's army will take your money.
No matter how you want to paint this is about China, the fact remains that American and Indian strategic outlooks DO NOT converge in the only place that matters to India, the Indian Ocean. The best that can be said is that both will stay out of each other's way but to help each other? Like I said, would India sink the Iranian Navy and harrass Russian subs up the ying-yang?
IF the Americans were to confront the Chinese, they NEED to be sure that the Iranians and the Russians will not be playing spoiler in the Indian Ocean and frankly, that is not within India's strategic interest to prevent them.
Why don't you let NATO handle them and give us a different set of targets.
For instance, if Germany, Europe’s most populous and prosperous state, is concerned about national and continental security, why is Berlin spending only 1.38 percent of its GDP on the military and maintaining a military whose readiness seems to barely exceed that of Montenegro?
When the Republic of Korea has 53 times the GDP of its northern antagonist, why is the former still reliant on America militarily?
And with China growing more aggressive by the day, why does Japan continue to limit itself to a pitiful 1 percent of GDP for the military, expecting Washington to do the heavy lifting in any conflict with Beijing?
Those responding most hysterically to the president’s plan to bring home 9,500 U.S. troops from Germany failed to demonstrate that such a minimal reduction would leave Europe at risk and America’s allies were not capable of deploying sufficient force to deter Moscow, which so dramatically lags behind the continent economically. Washington policymakers seemingly view alliances as a means to defend other states, not the United States.
India becomes a US ally, guess what happens. Defense spending will come down (!)
Iran blocks the flow of energy out of the gulf then we have to do something. We need the oil from there more than you do.
You have not been following. Iran has been targetting Britsh and American cargo ships. American and British destroyers have been challenging the Iranian Navy. Don't see India doing anything close to that.
Taiwan does not even have a civil defense drill for an invasion. Their drills are for typhoons only. It's like they don't expect to be invaded. And if it happens then the Americans will come save them.
Their equipment is twenty years old. Military isn't a respected profession in Taiwan, oddly enough. The pays are not good. There is attrition. The young aren't signing up like they used to.
Japan, Col. Grant Newsham has already pointed out the deficiencies. The mistaken assumption i had was to think these three US Asian allies are as tightly integrated as NATO.
NO! not by any stretch. Big eye opener that was.
Korea is an wild card right now. The govt there isn't very cooperative to the US.
PDI is about setting up interceptors to deter Chinese missile strikes on US infrastructure.
How many countries can the US rely on for basing those interceptors ?
Lot of open questions when it comes to those three countries.
I want to see joint coast guard patrols between Japan & Taiwan.
As opposed to India? As bad as those 3 countries are, they are light years ahead in supporting the US than India would ever be. Japan and Taiwan effectively block large portions of Chinese access to the Pacific. THE ONLY VIABLE WAY FOR THE CHINESE TO BREAK THIS IS TO INVADE TAIWAN and regardless of what anyone think of Taiwanese defences, it will be a bloodbath and money pit that would cripple China for decades to come. What do India and China get in their little war? A bunch of rocks. What does a Taiwan-ML war win? Sea Lanes. I'll let you measure which is more important.
What's your point here? Too small an airport that can't handle two planes. A SNAFU happened and one plane had to make a second flight. It was nothing neferious. It could have been just as easily that the Chinese plane had to make the second trip.
Multiply this by whatever ports China has in the entire region.
What are you talking about? Traffic jams happen. Are you suggesting that the Chinese would try to pull a EVER GIVEN? Don't think any Chinese company would like to pay $bils in fees for a traffic jam.
Why don't you let NATO handle them and give us a different set of targets.
That's the point. You don't get to dictate to the Americans what their strategic interests are. If you can't support their interests, then they will not support you.
India becomes a US ally, guess what happens. Defense spending will come down (!)
Hell, look at China. China was our defacto ally during the Cold War? What happened? Deng Xia Peng cut the defence budget. More than two million men had to be demobilize just so the PLA can pay for some badly upgrades like new guns for their old tanks and actual helments instead of combat caps. And we're not even talking new planes or tanks, just some stop gap measures.
Also to illustrate this point. There WAS zero talk of us coming to China's rescue. Whatever outcome in the West, the Chinese would have to deal with the Soviets on their own and make no mistake, China was going to lose that war. It's just that they would lose less if NATO wins in the West.
That's the point. You don't get to dictate to the Americans what their strategic interests are. If you can't support their interests, then they will not support you.
This nails it perfectly.
We do what is in the best interests of the US and then our Allies....others come after that.
And signed trade agreements does not make one an ally of the US> Only mutual defense treaties, ratified by both countries, makes you an ally.
Anything beyond that is just a convenient intersection of interests.
“Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
Mark Twain
On 21 April 2021, an alert was received by Indian Navy through International Submarine Escape and Rescue Liaison Office (ISMERLO), regarding the missing Indonesian submarine. The submarine was reportedly exercising in a location 25 miles North of Bali with a crew of 53 personnel.
India is amongst the few countries in the world capable of undertaking Search and Rescue of a disabled submarine through a DSRV. Indian Navy’s DSRV system can locate a submarine upto 1,000 meter depth utilising its state of the art Side Scan Sonar (SSS) and Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV). After the submarine is successfully located, another sub module of DSRV- the Submarine Rescue Vehicle (SRV) - mates with the submarine to rescue the trapped personnel. The SRV can also be used to provide emergency supplies to the submarine.
China is incrementally and unilaterally changing the status quo through coercion, intimidation, even force. Its goal appears clear: the assertion of sovereignty over the South China Sea, a key economic artery through which approximately $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. As one Chinese admiral recently told a conference in London about the South China Sea, quote, it belongs to China.
The United States has rightly rejected this view. As Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said in May, “turning an underwater rock into an airfield simply does not afford the rights of sovereignty or permit restrictions on international air or maritime transit.” Secretary Carter vowed that “the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as U.S. forces do all over the world.”
Unfortunately, it has been 4 months since that speech, but the administration has continued to restrict our Navy ships from operating within 12 nautical miles of country’s reclaimed islands. This is a dangerous mistake that grants de facto recognition of China’s manmade sovereignty claims. And these restrictions have continued even after China sent its own naval vessels within 12 nautical miles of the Aleutian Islands as President Obama concluded his recent visit to Alaska.
After that incident, U.S. officials emphasized that the Chinese ships did not violate international law, which allows countries to transit other nations’ territorial seas under what is called innocent passage. That is true, but we have not been asserting our rights just as forcefully. We must uphold the principle of freedom of the seas for commercial and military purposes on, under, and below the water. The best sign of that commitment would be to conduct freedom of navigation operations within 12 nautical miles of China’s reclaimed islands in the South China Sea.
So he quotes the Defense secretary and proceeds to find out whether the US is enforcing what is stated.
He makes the distinction that US FONOPS up to that point do not enter territorial waters and not doing so is a mistake.
He then goes on to question Ambassador David B. Shear, Assistant Secretary Of Defense For Asian And Pacific Security Affairs, U.S. Department Of Defense
Chairman McCain: Maybe I can begin with this news report out of Defense One, Defiant Chinese Admiral’s Message: South China Sea Belongs to China. There was a gathering I think in London, and there was Chinese and American and Japanese, as well as other military leaders. And the admiral who commands the North Sea fleet for the People’s Liberation Army and Navy, South China Sea is the name indicated as a sea area. It belongs to China. What is our response to that, Mr. Secretary?
Ambassador Shear: Thank you, Senator. The Chinese have said that before. It was nothing new for the admiral to have said that. If he was referring to the area of the South China Sea demarcated by the so-called nine-dash line, it is clear to us that that nine-dash line is not consistent with international law, and we do not recognize the Chinese claim to the area encompassed by the 18 nine-dash line.
Chairman McCain: You operate within that area, but you have not operated within 12 miles of these reclaimed features. Have you?
Ambassador Shear: We have conducted freedom of navigation operations.
Chairman McCain: Have we gone within the 12 miles of the reclaimed area? The answer I believe is no.
Ambassador Shear: We have not recently gone within 12 miles of a reclaimed area. However --
Chairman McCain: When was the last time we did?
Ambassador Shear: I believe the last time we conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea was April of this year.
Chairman McCain: Within the 12-mile limit. Come on, Mr. Secretary. I am very interested in the 12-mile limit because if you respect the 12-mile limit, then that is de facto sovereignty agreed to tacitly to the Chinese. Now, have we or have we not operated within the 12-mile 15 limit in recent years?
Ambassador Shear: I believe the last time we conducted a freedom of navigation operation within 12 nautical miles of one of those features was 2012.
Chairman McCain: 2012, 3 years ago.
Ambassador Shear: I might add, Senator, if I may, that freedom of navigation operations are one tool in a larger toolbox that we are going to need to use in fixing this issue. And we are in the process of putting together that toolbox. And as we move forward, we are going to consider freedom of navigation operations, along with a variety of other options to ensure that both the Chinese and the region understands that we can operate and we do operate anywhere we can.
Chairman McCain: Then it seems to me that we ought to do it because you see the area that has now been filled in. Since the last time we operated within the 12-mile limit, that number of acres has been dramatically increased, and we have watched it and really -- well, the best sign of respecting freedom of the seas is not to de facto recognize a 12-mile limit, and the best way you can make sure that that is not recognized is to sail your ships in international waters, which it clearly is -- these are artificial islands -- and pass right on by. And that then puts the lie to the admiral who said the South China Sea is -- he indicated it belongs to China. It does not belong to China. It belongs to the international waterways. If people are allowed to fill in islands and so, therefore, then they are subject to a 12-mile limit. The best way to prove that they are not is to go ahead and go in it. And we have not done that since 2012. I do not find that acceptable, Mr. Secretary. With all the other tools you have in the toolbox, the most visible assertion of freedom of the seas is to peacefully sail inside the 12-mile limit of artificial islands, which in any version of international law is not allowed to be sovereign territory of any nation.
Ambassador Shear: Well, I agree with you, Mr. Chairman, that the South China Sea does not belong to China. We have in recent years conducted freedom of navigation operations in the vicinity of those features, and doing so again is one of the array of options we are considering.
Chairman McCain: Well, it is an option that has not been exercised in 3 years.
The point he is making is from 2012 - 2015 the US FONOPS acquiesced to China's SCS island claims by virtue of the fact FONOPS conducted in that period did not enter territorial waters of those islands.
This is the point your opposition is running with and conjuring up all sorts of reasons for this lack of enforcement
A month after this hearing, FONOPS were conducted within territorial waters of the SCS islands as discussed on the board here
But in Oct 2015 it was not known what USS Lassen did. The next year when McCain asked for details from Ash Carter we learnt that the Lassen in fact challenged claims of not just China but also Vietnam, PH & Taiwan as they too claim Subi Reef.
Every FONOPS since as far as can be gleaned from the press has passed within territorial waters. Innocent passage without advance notification.
Evidently USG agreed with McCain how these FONOPS were to be conducted ie. within 12nm of the islands in the SCS.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
You have not been following. Iran has been targetting Britsh and American cargo ships. American and British destroyers have been challenging the Iranian Navy. Don't see India doing anything close to that.
Who is stepping up? It ain't India.
This has been going on since the 80's at least IIANM. We likely have sent ships there earlier as well. This is what i got for most recent.
The Indian Navy said warships and aircraft were deployed to establish presence, provide a sense of reassurance to the Indian merchant men, monitor the ongoing situation and respond to any emergent crises.
To which LEMOA & corresponding logistics agreements means the Indian Navy has access to US, French & Aussie bases in the Gulf.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
As opposed to India? As bad as those 3 countries are, they are light years ahead in supporting the US than India would ever be. Japan and Taiwan effectively block large portions of Chinese access to the Pacific. THE ONLY VIABLE WAY FOR THE CHINESE TO BREAK THIS IS TO INVADE TAIWAN and regardless of what anyone think of Taiwanese defences, it will be a bloodbath and money pit that would cripple China for decades to come.
Agree entirely and advocating for better cooperation to ensure Taiwan remains as is. Things could be way better than they currently are.
Do that and we can forget about China taking Taiwan. But as things stand currently its an open question.
India has never been a US ally so its a given there will be gaps. This is getting hyped to the point its a show stopper. It ain't. 27 years of naval exercises is saying something here. In fact back in '93 with the first Malabar the Americans were expecting to interact with a Soviet like navy and were surprised to find that was not the case. I'd like to better understand the thinking that led to that first exercise because you'd have to be lunatic to want to exercise with the Americans the way Clinton and that Robin Raphael was interfering in Kashmir.
My point is the gaps should be smaller between US & Asian allies.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
What do India and China get in their little war? A bunch of rocks. What does a Taiwan-ML war win? Sea Lanes. I'll let you measure which is more important.
In terms of strategic significance to the world definitely Taiwan will be more consequential.
If India loses so does the leadership. An important democracy takes a hit.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
Who is Iran inviting for exercises, training, sales, and supporting Port Sudan?
Since 2008, IN has been regularly deployed for anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden along with other navies of the world so as to safeguard maritime trade and curb piracy in the region.
As on 25 Sep 17, 65 IN ships have been deployed on anti-piracy patrol duties. These have safely escorted 3784 merchant ships including 402 Indian flagged vessels and 24823 Indian seafarers in the region.
No ship under escort by the IN has ever been hijacked.
A total of 120 pirates have been apprehended and 43 piracy attacks have been thwarted by the IN. Concerted efforts of the international community and the navies of over 25 nations has resulted in the downfall of piracy to one in 2016 from 117 in 2009.
Further, IN efforts at Gulf of Aden and along with Indian Coast Guard in Arabian Sea have resulted in shifting of Piracy High Risk Area closer to the Somali coast from Central Arabian Sea thereby saving large amount of insurance costs for all the merchant ships. IN’s presence in this region is being maintained to ensure safety and security of Indian trade.
Still ongoing and successful unless you want to tell me otherwise.
No matter what you want to print, the simple fact is that Indian and American strategic intrests do not converge at all. India does not want to join in a war against China nor does she want to confront Iran or Russia on our behalf. Your own statement about the Indian Navy providing reasurance to Indian merchantment proves that point to the hilt. India has absolutely zero intrest in confronting Iran on behalf of American or British, let alone Chinese merchant ships.
10 years ago? I was alive when the USS ENTERPRISE sailed into the Bay of Bengal. Up until the 1989, the Chinese were our allies and even today, they are our business partners. So I take your 10 years with whole trucks of salt. India was our enemy during the Cold War. To say we will win together or die together ignores the history. We've won the Cold War without India. And truth be told, China was a better ally than India is today. There was zero doubt that China would have marched north had the Soviets marched West. We have zero assurances that India will do anything if a Chinese fleet sails east.
So no, until India and the US signed on the dotted line, this is all nothing more than a dog and pony show. Nice to look at but the details is more than lacking, it ain't there.
As for the Somali pirates, give me a freaking break. It ain't the navies winning that war but the fact that freighter companies started hiring mercenaries to protect their freighters that reduced piracy. Cargo ships in international waters broadcasting that they've accepted private contractors onboard leaves Somalis with rusted shotguns out in the cold. A few well placed shots have detered more than one pirate fishing boat.
And what the hell do you mean a democracy take a hit if China wins a bunch of rocks? Your people will vote out an incompetent Parliment that can't win a war. That is democracy in its purest form unless you are saying the Official Opposition is not worthy of the seats they've won in an election.
Indonesia's navy on Saturday said items were found from a missing submarine, indicating the vessel with 53 crew members had sunk and there was no hope of finding survivors.
Navy Chief of Staff Adm Yudo Margono said Saturday that rescuers found several items including parts of a torpedo straightener, a grease bottle believed to be used to oil the periscope and prayer rugs from the submarine.
“With the authentic evidence we found believed to be from the submarine, we have now moved from the sub miss' phase to sub sunk,'” Margono said at a press conference.
“I’m not so much interested now in fishing. I don’t think there’s enough fish to quarrel about,” he said, adding that in future disputes over marine resources he would send “five coastguard ships, and they can chase … They can play with each other, and see who’s faster”.
“But when we start to mine, when we start to get whatever it is in the bowels of the China Sea, our oil, by that time I will send my grey ships there to stake a claim,” he said, referring to Philippine naval ships.
“If they start drilling oil there, I will tell China, is that part of our agreement? If that is not part of our agreement, I will also drill oil there,” he said. “If they get the oil, that would be time that we should act on it.”
He has conceded the fishing rights of PH in the west Philippine sea EEZ to China. The EEZ here is no longer "exclusive" to the PH when it comes to fishing.
Been the case for a few years already but he's affirmed it now.
Quite a large area it is.
Since coming to power in 2016, Duterte has sought to build an alliance with China and has been reluctant to confront its leadership, having been promised billions of dollars of loans and investments, much of which have yet to materialise – frustrating nationalists.
He has repeatedly said the Philippines was powerless to stop China, and that challenging its activities could risk a war his country would lose.
The firebrand leader said there was no way for the Philippines to enforce “without any bloodshed” a landmark 2016 arbitral ruling that clarified the Philippines sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone.
He does not want to exercise his rights with regards to the ruling either. He's bargained that for billons in investments that have yet to materialise.
What is Duterte's calculation ?
Stick to your guns and get nothing or agree to limited rights and maybe some money in investment.
The main beneficiary of President Rodrigo Duterte’s decision to terminate the agreement will be China. The VFA is the operating software of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, and without it, US military personnel cannot operate legally in the Philippines.
A reduced US military presence in the Philippines — no more joint exercises, ship visits and capacity-building support for the Philippine military — will give China a much freer hand to push its territorial and maritime jurisdictional claims in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). In the worst-case scenario, China could transform Philippine-claimed Scarborough Shoal into an artificial island on which to build a large military base.
Ending the VFA last year did not get the PH any relief this year. In fact it made it easier for China to continue its grey zone activities
This year's Raisina conference is on. Here is a discussion with the Indian Naval chief & the outgoing INDO PACOM commander
The Q& A is interesting to take a closer look at
16:23 Q. What are the most serious challenges and which can be addressed individually and which should be addressed in concert with others ?
India
Working alone is not feasible we have to work with others
Traditional & non-traditional threats
Traditional should be addressed via dialogue.
Grey zone & terrorism presents a challenge.
Lines between war & peace are blurring. Grey zone means more flash points are possible.
Increasing misinterpretation and non adherence to international rules & norms and non recognition of others sovereignty.
Conflicts that exist on land spill over to the sea through lower deniable kinds of actions.
Non traditional are piracy, drug trafficking and IUU fishing
US
Better to be united than divided.
- China biggest strategic threat.
- Russia's malign influence in the region. Spoiler. Undermining regional interests. Imposing additional costs on US engagements as well as of allies
whenever and wherever possible.
- Nuclear situation on the Korean peninsula until Kim agrees to de-nuclearise.
- Cyber theft and other activities like assassinations.
- Terrorism like ISIS attack in Sri Lanka and later in the PH
- Indo pacific remains a disaster prone region, 75% of the globes volcanoes, 90% of the worlds earthquakes occur in the pacific basin. Natural disaster
from the effects of climate change.
Opportunity for shared cooperation when nations are affected by natural disasters
Both agree working together and strengthening cooperation is important
Russia will play spoiler in region (!)
23:06 Q. What are the major challenges to cooperation with others in the Indo Pacific ?
Is there a capacity/capabilities mismatch. does different organizational cultures matter. Do threat perceptions match up and are there important differences ?
In which areas are we looking to strengthen cooperation ?
Which areas need more work for better interoperability and ability to onboard others ?
US
- Major challenges PLA aggressive actions undermines rules based order. CCP is advancing its strategic aims in the SCS as region copes with covid
- Harassing Malaysian survey ship, Japanese fishing ships, challenging PH fire control ship.
- Along with the US, Japan, Aus, NZ, India, UK, France, Canada & ASEAN have similar visions for Indo pacific.
- Enhanced cooperation is critical. Great potential for quad cooperation. Progress & interoperability and info sharing through exercises.
- Maritime security initiative to build partner capacity
India
- Several areas of convergence between partners so differences in threat perception isn't a challenge.
- The challenge to getting better cooperation is the large expanse of the area to cover.
- Inter-changeability should be the next step in the future after inter-operability is satisfactory
- Ultimate aim is plug & play capability between maritime forces for any situation that requires multiple partners
The trouble for the Indian commander is the vast area to cover
31:44 Q. Where do you expect the Chinese carrier program to go in the next 5 to 10 years ?
Do you expect them to focus solely on the SCS or will they venture further out into the Pacific and Indian oceans ?
Will they follow the same model as the US for carrier battle groups ?
What is your sense of Chinese developments in this regard ?
US
They have two carriers, CV-16 & CV-17 with the former conducting operations in the SCS & PH as recent as a week back.
CV-16 operates within the first island chain. ECS, SCS & West PH Sea.
Both carriers are in commission. Both have ski jumps which limits the number of aircraft, weight & capability of what they can put in the air.
The third CV will be a flat deck with a catapult system. They can add more aircraft, take it further abroad. They will move in a group
Expected to be operational in the latter half of the decade. Carriers can be global if they have the support, allies & partners around the globe.
This carrier operating in the Indian ocean is a reality.
India
Presence of PLAN in the Indian ocean for a decade now. It won't be surprising to see them in the IO as the flag will follow their trade.
They will replicate the US CBG's as they have the requisite building blocks in place like fleet support ships and renhai class destroyers.
The most important remaining competence they have to develop is their carrier air wing which will take time.
US has been doing it since the WW's, India has been at it for 60 years. The Chinese are moving quickly.
Competence matters more than numbers
36:50 Q. Taiwan straits are heating up. SECSTATE Bllnken recently warned China about this issue. What are your expectations ?
What is the likely US response to a potential Chinese invasion ?
How do you assess China's capacity to carry out such an invasion and Taiwanese ability to defend ?
US
Supports the peaceful resolution of cross strait issues in accordance with the US 1 China policy, Taiwan relations act and the three communiques.
China is trying in various domains to diplomatically isolate, economically constrain and militarily threaten Taiwan.
US provides arms to Taiwan in a manner commensurate with the threat Taiwan faces. To delay & deny aggression from China.
Improving training and readiness, improving inter-operability, supporting their military professional development
Taiwan recently committed to strengthening its reserve forces.
They continue to fund their own as well as foreign defense acquisition programs
He did not answer the remainder of the questions
40:00 Q. Malabar happened last year and Australia joined for the first time
Where do you see the quad going in the future ?
Is the quad ready to do joint military operations ?
India
Quad is growing and there is no shortage of issues quad can handle.
This year the challenge is ramping up vaccine manufacture. Navies of US, Japan, India & Australia already enjoy a high degree of interoperability.
Engagements like Malabar predate the quad. We've had very robust engagements with the USN with Malabar.
Malabar has been going since 1992. We've engaged with Japan's SDF since 2012 and the RAN for the last six years.
All quad members have been jointly exercising since last year. Should a military opportunity arise we have the capability and capacity to come together in almost a plug and play manner.
US
Quad has tremendous potential for cooperation far beyond the security sphere
Vaccine is a powerful signal to the region, 5G, space norms, cyber norms, cyber security, to expand cooperation with others in international norms
Why is the Indo pacific important to the US ? during the course of this decade 2/3 of the world's population and 2/3 of the global economy will be
centered on the Indo pacific.
Good to know those naval exercises we've been having for the last few decades were adding up to something tangible.
No dog and pony shows these
Looks like tasks & responsibilities have already been drawn up to meet certain contingencies.
You're joking, right? There has not been one live fire exercise in any QUAD get together. All you've had is a bunch of ships that learned to sail together. Not a single one conducting hostile engagements on, I don't know, how about ASW and interceptions. The last exercise at Malabar consisted of a single US destroyer, not even a task group.
Now, let's compare that RIMPAC, 32 Naval vessels and seven submarines conducted actual naval warfare exercises including live fire.
Plug and play? No Indian Admiral is qualified to command a US Naval Task group wheras NATO Naval Officers were assigned as 2ICs for decades. To get such plug and play will require India to do the one thing she's not willing to do - submit to American command, ie give up her indepent policy making.
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