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Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

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  • Quad in action



    Assume Aussie AMB to PH is a quad rep. What can quad do for PH ?

    First half is about the whitsun reef, and the usual statements about concern. Working with PH govt bla bla

    Second half is about vaccines, the kicker here is Aussies are working on last mile connectivity for all of the PH.

    The funding is there to do this is for all of SE Asia over the next three years.

    Think about that. covid affects everyone. Here you have a plan to ensure everyone gets a shot.

    No way China can compete with an initiative like this



    Chris says those Chinese fishing boats will not leave. They've been there since Dec. They will just stay put.

    That is until the PH gives up watching them and THEN they will move in and develop the reef.

    The PH govt has its red lines, all they need is the spine to enforce them.

    What plans does quad have for that ? give them that spine.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Apr 21,, 00:58.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      The US wants India to be able, willing, and readied to sink those Chinese man-made islands.
      The only way for India to do this is in an alliance. Taiwanese & Japanese troops won't face a Galwan because they are in an alliance.

      But sinking islands is taking things a step further. Is it an act of war ?

      How to justify it.

      The way i'd phrase it is dismantling infrastructure.

      This way you assert control. You don't kill anybody.

      The problem is the infrastructure, not people or any number of ships.

      There will be pushback and casualties but it makes the point.

      The larger one is this is an away game for us. Not home turf.

      Winning in China's backyard matters.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Apr 21,, 01:56.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        The only way for India to do this is in an alliance. Taiwanese & Japanese troops won't face a Galwan because they are in an alliance.
        You're missing the other point. Nobody is asking for what they want and EVERYONE, including India, is dancing around voicing what they want. This is because they know the other side will say no. No one can say no if nobody ask. Instead, you form this "QUAD" that MAY or MAY NOT sink those islands OR neuter the Pakistani Navy. Now, thinking as a Chinese or Pakistani strategic thinker, I would definetely count on QUAD being militarily against me to sink those islands or block in and out of Pakistani ports. It would be complete stupidity to ignore those possibilities from a defender POV. Both Indian and USN thnkers know this.

        Chimo

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          You're missing the other point. Nobody is asking for what they want and EVERYONE, including India, is dancing around voicing what they want. This is because they know the other side will say no. No one can say no if nobody ask. Instead, you form this "QUAD" that MAY or MAY NOT sink those islands OR neuter the Pakistani Navy. Now, thinking as a Chinese or Pakistani strategic thinker, I would definetely count on QUAD being militarily against me to sink those islands or block in and out of Pakistani ports. It would be complete stupidity to ignore those possibilities from a defender POV. Both Indian and USN thnkers know this.
          So India sinks those islands. Chinese sink an Indian ship.

          What happens next ?

          Is India alone now at war with China

          But we're in an alliance so its one for all and all for one.

          Chinese realise this and do not sink the Indian ship.

          Job done. China backs off.

          Nobody is asking for what they want and EVERYONE, including India, is dancing around voicing what they want. This is because they know the other side will say no. No one can say no if nobody ask. Instead, you form this "QUAD" that MAY or MAY NOT sink those islands OR neuter the Pakistani Navy.
          I still don't understand what you mean when you say no one is asking what they want.

          Every one said free and open indo pacific.

          The question is enforcing it. How we will do that and the manner.

          I don't even know if this question is on the agenda.

          So the "how" has not been decided yet.

          We need to hammer out a charter first. The why.

          Figure out the why and the how will follow.

          This is still a work in progress, give it some more time.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Apr 21,, 20:37.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            So India sinks those islands. Chinese sink an Indian ship.

            What happens next ?
            Obviously war.

            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Is India alone now at war with China

            But we're in an alliance so its one for all and all for one.
            Doesn't work that way. The battlespace can only hold so many combatants. There's your guys and then there's everybody else. You sink whomever is not your guys.

            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Chinese realise this and do not sink the Indian ship.

            Job done. China backs off.
            1969 - China was fighting two superpowers simultaneously, the Americans in Vietnam and the Soviets along the border.

            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            I still don't understand what you mean when you say no one is asking what they want.

            Every one said free and open indo pacific.
            There is no QUAD alliance. There are no treaty obligations. This is a simple coalition and hence, zero obligation on any participant. Therefore, no one is saying crap about what they want and everyone is still dancing around the issue just like what you're doing right here.

            Chimo

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              Nobody is asking for what they want and EVERYONE, including India, is dancing around voicing what they want. This is because they know the other side will say no. No one can say no if nobody ask. Instead, you form this "QUAD" that MAY or MAY NOT sink those islands OR neuter the Pakistani Navy.
              Why do you say every one here, besides India ?

              US, Japan & Australia are already in an alliance. Isn't it then clear they know what they want and therefore do not need to ask because its a given.

              Balloon goes up, US, Japan & Australia are in this together. Yes ? Agree or not.

              Thing is listening to one of the arms committee senate hearing, then PACOM Cmdr Harry Harris said the US might be alone on this one (!)

              Meaning Aus & Japan participation isn't guaranteed. Bear in mind he said that back in 2015. Today might be different.

              Japan is in if Japan is threatened. What if its Taiwan or elsewhere say. They amended their constitution to say help support others. So that's Japan.

              Aussies have walked into every conflict since WW1. Surely their participation isn't in question.


              Now if India can tag along it helps. Definitely better than not there.

              That India got into an apex meeting tells me that the idea is under consideration.

              This is also signaling to China, should they provoke us further then we might go the whole hog.

              This creates other problems though. What do we do if the Russians cut off arms supply to us ?

              That would cripple our ability to fight and leave us vulnerable.

              We would be in a worse situation than before.

              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              There is no QUAD alliance. There are no treaty obligations. This is a simple coalition and hence, zero obligation on any participant.
              Correct. It's a conceptual body for now. Not a defense treaty. Not an alliance.

              And for you that means quad can deter squat. Right now, perhaps.

              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              Therefore, no one is saying crap about what they want and everyone is still dancing around the issue just like what you're doing right here.
              You make it sound like there will never be an alliance. Patience.

              The thing just got new legs and you've already written it off

              The time frame could be a decade or more for what you want to come into being.

              Nobody can say things are not moving in that direction.

              All depends on China's behaviour. The read is they will get more belligerent.

              We better have some plan in place then eh

              It's called quad. Like it, hate it, all we got.
              Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Apr 21,, 02:10.

              Comment


              • In military terms, if I was the Chinese commander, I would definettely plan on all 4 country to act as a single unit. Hope for the best. PREPARE for the worst.

                If I was the American commander, do I want Dehli, Tokyo, or Canberra vetoing my decisions? Do I want to spend time to negotiate all 3 not to veto my decisions?

                Hell no! I would go it alone at that point. If I am forced to use Indian, Japanese, and Australian resources, I want it clearly spelled out what I can do and what I cannot do so I don't have to goto all 3 capitals for a go-no-go. That is treaty obligations, ie, an Indian destroyer under American admiralty command. If Dehli doesn't want that destroyer shelling Chinese islands. Fine, it would be protecting my flank. If Dehli wants to veto my decision to shell Chinese islands, I'm sending that destroyer home.
                Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 02 Apr 21,, 03:37.
                Chimo

                Comment


                • Also, while we have a mutual defense pact with Japan and separate deal with Australia under 5 Eyes and ABCA, there is not currently a mutual defense pact tying the US, Japan & Australia together.

                  Just wanted to be clear on that.

                  And the Colonel is absolutely correct on how the US INDOPAC naval element commander will act in that scenario.

                  Keep in mind the US is likely to have the largest forces in the fight as well as the biggest logistics piece as well.
                  “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                  Mark Twain

                  Comment


                  • US Coast guard is getting in on the action

                    Palau and USCG Bust Chinese Vessel for Illegal Fishing | Maritime Executive | Dec 24 2020

                    On December 9, Palau officials near Helen Reef reported an 80-foot Chinese vessel fishing illegally. Working with the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Global Defense Reform Program contractor at Palau's Maritime Law Center, the crew of the patrol boat Remeliik II was dispatched from Koror to apprehend the vessel. The U.S. Coast Guard dispatched an HC-130 Hercules search plane out of Hawaii's Air Station Barbers Point and the Coast Guard Cutter Myrtle Hazard out of Guam to support the mission.

                    Suspected of harvesting it illegally in Palau's waters. Sea cucumber fetches up to $1,700 per pound in some Asian markets.

                    "Our bilateral agreements with Palau and other island nations are proving highly impactful," said Cmdr. Jason Brand, the Coast Guard Fourteenth District Chief of Enforcement. "If IUU (Illegal, unreported and unregulated) fishing continues unchecked, we can expect a deterioration of fragile coastal States, collapse of critical fish stock populations and increased tension among foreign-fishing nations, threatening geopolitical stability around the world."

                    Fisheries enforcement is part of the Coast Guard's role in supporting the rule of law in the Western Pacific - one element of U.S. maritime services' strategy to counter Chinese efforts to undermine the rules-based order at sea
                    Nothing stops the USCG from enforcing so far away from the US coast. This plan can work in a lot of places.

                    These coast guard boats can travel farther & faster in bad conditions, are armed with heavy machine guns and have helicopter decks.

                    The Coast Guard is investing greater than $19 billion in at the least eight national-security cutters, 25 offshore-patrol cutters, and 58 fast-response cutters. If all goes to plan within 12 months, at the least eight of these ships can be deployed to counter China. The Coast Guard is exploring stationing a ship in American Samoa.

                    That should cover the western pacific.

                    Since the plan worked so well with Palau how about trying it some where else. Taiwan maybe ?

                    U.S., Taiwan Sign Coast Guard Deal to Counter China Pressure | Bloomberg | Mar 26 2021

                    The U.S. and Taiwan signed an agreement intended to boost cooperation between their coast guards, in a move to push back at China’s increasingly assertive maritime activities. The two sides signed a memorandum of understanding that establishes a working group to “improve communications, build cooperation, and share information” on coast guard-related efforts, according to a statement dated Friday from the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei.

                    The statement from AIT did not say whether closer cooperation meant that U.S. vessels would be used in Taiwanese waters -- a move that would likely elicit an angry response from China.

                    The move marks the latest effort by the U.S. to counter China’s use of its coast guard and civilian fishing militias to assert its territorial claims. The U.S. has been deploying its coast guard to the Western Pacific to help allies enforce their claims in disputed waters. The crew of a U.S. cutter boarded a Chinese fishing boat illegally operating in the waters of the Pacific nation of Palau in December
                    While we're at it why not get the US ambassador to Palau to pay Taiwan a visit

                    US ambassador visits Taiwan for 1st time in 42 years | Taiwan News | Mar 28 2021

                    Japanese CG can fire back. Good.

                    Japan Coast Guard may fire at foreign vessels attempting to land on Senkakus, government says | S & S | Feb 26 2021

                    Next get the Japanese CG to do joint patrolling with the Taiwanese CG and we're set
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Apr 21,, 18:56.

                    Comment


                    • Chinese plan is to box the Aussies in by creating this wall to their North.

                      Setting up bases or turning islands North of Oz China neutral.

                      Taiwan loses second ally in a week as Kiribati switches to China | Guardian | Sept 20 2019

                      Kiribati’s decision leaves Taiwan with four remaining Pacific allies: Tuvalu, Nauru, Palau and Marshall Islands
                      Solomon Islands & Kiribati. Vanuatu allowed Chinese investment earlier.

                      US & Aussie plan is to draw islands away from China.

                      Punch holes through the Chinese wall and the Aussies remain in the game.

                      Double down on Palau. They're still with Taiwan.

                      PNG & Timor are with Oz.
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Apr 21,, 19:15.

                      Comment


                      • The fishing boats that collected at Whitsun reef seem to have dispersed but still around



                        The PH did nothing in 2015 to stop the Chinese building on the islands.

                        That would have been under Aquino. Duterte only enters office mid 2016. PH presidents only get one six yr term so he's gone next year.

                        The missiles and radars show up 2017-18. At that point its harder to act as the costs will be more to push back.

                        The pushback should have started moment they began reclaiming the islands.

                        Allowing China to build means PH does not control the island any more.

                        In which case China can do whatever in the future as they control the island.

                        What's left ? control over the waters. China wants to establish defacto if not legal control over the waters in that region.

                        So the only remaining option is to challenge their control over those waters and not lose more islands.



                        By sheer numbers China is trying to make it impossible for civilians to make use of the SCS so fishermen from PH, VN & oil & gas operations.

                        These fishermen should continue to go to those areas hopefully under the watch of their country's coast guard.

                        If they give up then they lose access those waters.

                        Lessons learnt, don't let it happen to more islands PH.

                        US has reiterated the mutual defense treaty applies to the west PH sea but there are no US forces in PH, nearest are in Okinawa which is two days away.

                        Saving the visiting forces agreement and working on the expanded defense cooperation agreement has to be done.
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 04 Apr 21,, 00:55.

                        Comment


                        • Manila 'will protect' its territory in new South China Sea row | Nikkei | Mar 25 2021

                          CLIFF VENZON, Nikkei staff writerMarch 25, 2021 19:24 JST

                          MANILA -- President Rodrigo Duterte told the Chinese envoy to Manila in a meeting that the Philippines will protect its territory amid the latest spat in the disputed South China Sea, his spokesperson said on Thursday.

                          Manila and Beijing have been in an impasse for nearly a week over the presence of 183 Chinese vessels in Whitsun Reef in the disputed Spratly region.

                          "The president repeated what he said in the United Nations [that] we will protect our territory... we believe that this issue should be resolved under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea and we stand by our victory in the international tribunal," spokesperson Harry Roque said in a press conference.

                          Roque was referring to the 2016 arbitration ruling, which Beijing does not recognize, that invalidated China's expansive claims in the South China Sea. "In the spirit of friendship, we expect them (Chinese ships) to leave," said Roque who did not reveal when the meeting between Duterte and the Chinese envoy took place.

                          Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian responded to Duterte by saying that the ships are fishing vessels, according to Roque.

                          Meanwhile, leader of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Lt. Gen. Cirilito Sobejana has ordered the deployment of additional Navy ships to patrol the contested waters. He had said earlier this week the 183 vessels, believed to be part of China's maritime militia, have been spotted in the Whitsun Reef, 175 nautical miles from the western Philippine province of Palawan and within the country's 200-mile exclusive economic zone.

                          "By the increased naval presence in the area, we seek to reassure our people of the [military's] strong and unwavering commitment to protect and defend them from harassment and ensure that they can enjoy their rights over the country's rich fishing ground which is the source of their livelihood," military spokesperson Maj. Gen. Edgard Arevalo said Thursday.

                          Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. also filed a diplomatic protest early this week, demanding Beijing recalls the fishing vessels and maritime assets near the reef.

                          The U.S., Japan, Australia, the U.K. and Canada have issued statements expressing support for the Philippines, as well as for a "free" and "open" South China Sea.

                          But Beijing has insisted Whitsun is part of China and that the ships are fishing vessels seeking shelter from rough seas, and are not part of its maritime militia. "Chinese fishing vessels have been fishing in its adjacent waters for many years," the Chinese embassy in Manila said.

                          The presence of the ships has raised fresh concerns about Chinese activities in the disputed waters, where Beijing has reclaimed seven artificial islands and build military infrastructure on them. Apart from the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam also have claims in the South China Sea.

                          Meanwhile, the U.S. embassy in Manila said China was using "maritime militia to intimidate, provoke, and threaten other nations, which undermines peace and security in the region."

                          The embassy said on Tuesday: "We stand with the Philippines, our oldest treaty ally in Asia."

                          The Chinese embassy, meanwhile, hit back at U.S., which it said was not a party to the South China Sea issue. "Fanning flames and provoking confrontation in the region will only serve the selfish interests of individual country and undermine the regional peace and stability," the Chinese embassy said.

                          Despite the maritime dispute, Duterte has forged closer economic ties with China, which has promised investments and recently donated 1 million doses of COVID vaccines to the Philippines.

                          On Wednesday, opposition Sen. Risa Hontiveros called on the Duterte administration to "unanimously denounce the incivility of China," which she said was putting the country's fishing communities "in grave danger."

                          Hontiveros said Duterte's administration must reassess "this so-called friendship" as China has caused "irreversible damage to our seas."
                          Why is India keeping quiet here ? Is the MEA asleep ?

                          When the terms "free and open" crop up our statement should be automatic !!

                          Even UK & Canada saw fit to say something.



                          If GOI cannot grow a pair after what we went through and recognise the same crap happening to others at least there is the media.

                          Surprised the HK rep bothered to show up.

                          She would then not have had to leave when the Taiwan rep said Wuhan virus
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 04 Apr 21,, 05:34.

                          Comment


                          • China intrudes yet again in South China Sea | ANI | Apr 05 2021

                            Last year, a defeatist Duterte stated that China was in "possession" of the South China Sea and that it was, therefore, futile to act against it. Duterte also promulgates a false binary range of options - to go to war with China or to totally accede to Beijing. Certainly, nobody expects Manila to go to war against China, but the country needs to stand up for what it is entitled under international law.

                            Firstly, in July 2016 the Philippines won a resounding victory in the international court of law when the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in its favour and lambasted China for its outrageous maritime claims and activities in the South China Sea. The court ruled that Chinese territorial claims, including its Nine-Dash Line, have absolutely no merit or legal basis. However, Duterte has frittered away that legal and moral victory with his obeisance to China.

                            Secondly, the Philippines has a longstanding Mutual Defense Treaty with the USA, something that other neighbours like Malaysia and Vietnam do not have as they too wrestle with Chinese assertiveness. This treaty promises that the USA would militarily support the Philippines should the country or its forces come under attack.

                            Meanwhile, Teddy Locsin, the Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs, is guilty of following Duterte's limp policy with China. Two days after a trip to China to meet Foreign Minister Wang Yi, he tweeted, "China can say what it wants; the Philippines will do what it must to keep what's hers by right. Irrelevant whether we possess commensurate military power to meet the challenge; we will not yield but die - or trigger World War 3. Not a bad outcome; living is overrated. Honour is all."

                            Again we see that false dichotomy of two extremes routinely presented by the Philippine government - either surrender or war.

                            Neither extreme is necessary, but it does illustrate the extraordinary success that Chinese pressure and propaganda has had on the leadership of the Philippines.
                            The false dichotomy presented by both President & foreign secretary of PH is odd. Bewildering !!!

                            The net result is PH does nothing and the Chinese get what they want. Or at least that is how it used to be. Will this time be different ?

                            This modus operandi is typical of China - it ring-fences disputed South China Sea features, establishes permanent presences and drives off others such as local fishermen.

                            China employs this same methodology along the Indian border too, using gray-zone tactics where possible to avoid outright confrontation and to "soften" the military nature of its territorial activities.

                            It can be predicted that this arm-wrestling for control is far from over. China is using tried-and-tested methods of ambiguity - gray-zone tactics - that have already been wielded to much success.

                            It could well be that Beijing is testing out the Philippine response and how well Manila will coordinate with the USA after a new US president took up office.

                            Furthermore, Duterte will be leaving office in May 2022, so now is a good time for Beijing to take advantage of his leniency and defeatism. The timing is not accidental, even as the world continues to be preoccupied by Covid-19.

                            The appearance of swarms of Chinese boats to occupy new territory in the South China Sea is therefore not an unexpected gambit.

                            However, it is one that the Philippines must respond to.

                            A robust response, such as Indonesia's reaction to a Chinese fishing fleet and accompanying Chinese Coast Guard boats near the Natuna Islands in early 2020, is definitely needed from Manila.
                            Heh, next PH president won't be such a doormat.

                            So Indonesia set the model to follow then? Posted about that encounter here.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Apr 21,, 03:26.

                            Comment


                            • Good lecture on PH territorial rights by retired Supreme Court judge Antonio Carpio

                              Comment


                              • US did a FONOPS against India few days back. They put out a press release. Indian media going nuts about it.

                                Why is this even news ? because USN put out a real time press release.

                                Earlier, FONOPS details only appeared in the annual report. Nobody knew. Nobody cared.

                                This op will be the 18th time USN has conducted FONOPS against India, going by annual reports put out by US Secretary of Defense for Policy

                                Spoiler!


                                No details what military operation was carried out. Could be anything. A simple man overboard exercise qualifies here.

                                No details whether USN was even challenged by the IN. My guess is not as IN knows it was benign.

                                For perspective this is a list of FONOPS conducted against US allies

                                Spoiler!

                                Note the term "Excessive straight baselines" wrt PH. It will come up in a subsequent post.


                                India happens to be in the minority. In a group of around 20 countries that disagrees that military ships can carry out operations in any countries EEZ.

                                That's the list of countries US will conduct FONOPS against. Simple

                                Rest of the world or 170 other countries, at least those with a coast line do not have a problem with it.

                                China has a double standard with FONOPS. Object if some one else does it in their waters but do not bother to notify when they do it to others.eg. military exercises in the Mediterranean or Baltic Sea with Russia.
                                Last edited by Double Edge; 11 Apr 21,, 01:20.

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