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  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Xi ain't about to give nucledar controls to Colonels and Xi has yet to participate in a nuclear rlease exercise. One of the reasons why 2Arty went with conventional warheads was because it was damned near impossible to get nuclear release during exercises - to the point that 2Arty said "fuck it" and went conventional to bypass the Central Military Commission for weapons release.

    2Arty/Rocket Forces are still maintaining the conventional warhead because they still are getting screwed up the ass waiting for nuclear release.

    For launch on warning, you have to train for launch on warning ... and that ain't happening. The Rocket Forces may very well train for launch on warning but it will be with conventional and not nuclear warheads. Getting Xi to properly train for such a scenario is like pulling teeth off a pissed off elelphant.

    BTW, warheads are still unmated.
    Found the source for that "launch on warning" comment

    China can launch nuclear counterattacks within minutes, ex-PLA officer says | Japan Times | Aug 03 2020

    BEIJING – China can detect nuclear missiles launched from an enemy and counterattack using nuclear weapons within minutes before they land in the country, according to a paper written by a Chinese former military officer.

    His remarks indicated China may have completed a missile attack early warning system while bolstering its nuclear programs, which could threaten the United States in security terms, foreign affairs experts said.

    Development of the system requires advanced missile defense technologies integrating artificial satellites to detect missile launches with sea-based radar, they said.

    China has apparently increased its missile defense capabilities in recent years, as the leadership of President Xi Jinping has stepped up efforts to give the nation’s military “world-class” status by the mid-21st century.

    The paper was written by Yang Chengjun, a Chinese specialist on nuclear missiles, who had long worked for the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, which has a nuclear missile unit.

    In the paper, Yang also emphasized that China’s nuclear capacity has become comprehensively comparable to those of the United States and Russia.

    China has so far pledged to pursue the policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons under any circumstances.

    The basic principle of its nuclear strategy is that the country would counterattack with the nuclear weapons remaining without being destroyed after being hit by the enemy’s nuclear weapons.
    As for making nuclear threats its Hu Xijin shooting his mouth off on Weibo.

    Which did not go unnoticed in Washington

    At the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva on June 30, U.S. disarmament ambassador to the U.N. Robert Wood criticized China’s nuclear arms control policy and military build-up and argued that the regime poses a major threat to world peace and security.

    At the conference, Wood also quoted Hu’s reiteration that China should expand its number of nuclear warheads to 1,000 and demanded that the regime give an explanation.
    The same Yang Chenjun wrote a rebuttal to Hu's comments a few days later


    On July 31, Yang Chengjun, a retired PLA (People’s Liberation Army) arms strategy expert wrote an article titled, “Beware of Malicious Hype on the National Nuclear Issues,” but didn’t specifically mention Hu.

    Yang wrote that as an expert in the nuclear arms field for 47 years, he believed that seeing recent talk in the media of adding more nuclear warheads “is extremely harmful to national security.”

    “This kind of hype will only provide hostile countries a reason to attack us. It will heighten the anxiety of neighboring countries and push them toward the United States for nuclear protection. It will also arouse unwarranted domestic dissatisfaction with the country and the military for its inaction,” he wrote.

    Yang pointed out that there are four purposes and motivations for those who repeatedly hype the nuclear-related topics:

    - first, to instigate dissatisfaction with the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Military Commission and the military and accuse them of inaction;
    - secondly, to attract attention online;
    - thirdly, to demonstrate only he cares about nuclear safety; and finally,
    - to force the experts to clarify the issues so that they can pry into national nuclear secrets.
    When it comes to Xijin i will go with #2

    Still, the US ambassador had to ask for a clarification. This is the irritating thing with Xijin. We have to assume he is his masters voice. Even if we don't want to.

    Both "launch" on warning" and nuclear threats were directed at the US.

    Damn! So everything Mike said was right, he was responding to rhetoric from the CCP.

    And not necessarily their capabilities as you pointed out.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Jan 21,, 18:33.

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    • BEIJING – China can detect nuclear missiles launched from an enemy and counterattack using nuclear weapons within minutes before they land in the country, according to a paper written by a Chinese former military officer.
      Horse puckey!

      A SLBM launch against Beijing would take 10 minutes from launch to impact. 2 minutes to confirm and verify. 1 minute to relay to CO. 5 minutes to relay to the CMC. 1 minute to get Xi to ok the launch. 5 minutes to for crews to go launch procedures ... impact was 4 minutes before retalitory launch.

      And these are the best case scenario. If Xi was dead asleep, he would need more than 1 minute to release the nukes.
      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 13 Jan 21,, 18:19.
      Chimo

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Oracle View Post

        What we have are open source deliberations that tells us China has 240 nukes. Xi became GS of the CCP in Nov, 2012. It's 2021 now. Anyone who deliberates, or says that China's nuke warheads have not increased are fooling themselves and us. How much I don't know. But with the amount of $$$$$$ at China's disposal, 350 would be a realistic number at this point of time.
        The graph only goes up to 2017 (for some reason), the rest is in the notebook

        Click image for larger version

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        Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Jan 21,, 18:56.

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        • Originally posted by Oracle View Post


          Nothing in the print media so far.
          Here is the document

          titled US strategic framework for the Indo Pacific

          No surprises in there

          Pakistan as a country is not mentioned.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Jan 21,, 19:46.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            There is no social safety net in China. That's how a snakeoil salesman got hold of so many.
            Do you believe the CCP estimates of anywhere from 70 to a 100 million followers in less than ten years ?

            What might have helped was the CCP promoting FG at the outset as helping to fight crime.

            So FG got splashed on national TV and people found out.

            What used to be teacher student suddenly got thrown open to the masses.

            Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            Truth, Compassion, Tolerance? Yeah, sure, give me all your money and I will teach you how to breathe so you won't ever get sick. You can put yourself on fire and you won't feel anything and you can heal your burns. Through your "Chi," you can even stop the pain of your child burning.

            It's a freaking cult promisng you that you won't need a social safety net because you will never get sick and you can heal from anything. Just give me all your money and your children's money.
            An awful lot of people to believe that isn't it. Qigong is already known, FG added a spiritual element to it. Big deal.

            If there is a question of fraud you would think they would have ways to deal with it than the one they chose which was wholesale crackdown on every follower. Still continuing to this day.

            The only difference with FG & Uighurs is they want to get rid of FG whereas with the other groups its more limit them.
            Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Jan 21,, 20:51.

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            • The big deal is that Chinese history shown what happens when you a cult run amok. The Taiping rebellion. Intellectually, I initially thought that FLG is nothing more than a Chinese version of an evalengist church preying on fools and their money. I really took notice when FLG partioners burned themselves and their children alive in Tianamen Square to prove FLG teachings. Jonestown and cynaided koolaide flashback to my mind.

              Old age care is expensive in China and the young is no longer looking after the old when they cannot even look after themselves. A lot of these old are parents of CCP members. These CCP members saw how a snakeoil salesman is fleecing their parents of their life savings ... and they went after him and his cult with a vengeance.

              I was horrified when FLG members believe they can suriving immolation. I was angered when they burned children. This while the fuck is driving Rolls Royces in the US. Line him up and see how he survives immolation for all I care.
              Chimo

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              • Yes this article by Elizabeth Perry does make parallels with previous movements and how the govts of the time dealt with them. They are particularly sensitive when they think they are weak.

                Challenging the Mandate of Heaven - Elizabeth Perry

                FG's org style was similar to the CCP.

                Many CCP members were part of FG.

                The PLA even printed some FG books.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  Here is the document

                  titled US strategic framework for the Indo Pacific

                  No surprises in there

                  Pakistan as a country is not mentioned.
                  According to this Taiwanese MP, the punchline in this document is it publicly declares for the first time that the US will defend Taiwan along with other countries of the first island chain.

                  • Objective: Enable Taiwan to develop an effective asymmetric defense strategy and capabilities that will help ensure its security, freedom from coercion, resilience, and ability to engage China on its own terms.
                  • Objective: Deter China from using military force against the United States and U.S. allies or partners, and develop the capabilities and concepts to defeat Chinese actions across the spectrum of conflict.
                    • Actions: Enhance combat—credible U.S. military presence and posture in the Indo—Pacific region to uphold U.S. interests and security commitments.
                    • Devise and implement a defense strategy capable of, but not limited to:
                      • (1) denying China sustained air and sea dominance inside the "first island chain" in a conflict;
                      • (2) defending the first—island—chain nations, including Taiwan; and
                      • (3) dominating all domains outside the first island—chain.
                  So its a warning to China not to try any tricks.

                  Given this document would only otherwise have been declassified in 2043 its a long term security framework and unlikely to be modified by the next administration

                  Does not seem to have anything super secret or surprising in it but it will be a helpful guide to the countries in the region of US intent for the future.

                  Now as for companies coming to India, Covid has put a hold on a lot of travel so once that eases we might see some movement.

                  Taiwanese MP is very interested in exploring such opportunities in India and is calling for collaboration with Japan in terms of manufacturing.

                  Add Malaysia & Vietnam to the mix and we get an alternative to China. Products made in these countries won't have any spy chips embedded and will qualify for the clean network the Americans are proposing.

                  He had the following advice

                  Don't do anything according to the PLA's mood.

                  If you allow their emotional behaviour to get the better of you then you will be controlled or restrained by them.

                  This is not a smart strategy when dealing with China.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 15 Jan 21,, 22:47.

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                  • What is the new model of great power relations ? Proposed by Xi, his personal signature initiative. Wang Huning is its architect

                    The new model of great power relations does not define who a great power is. It does not explain whether the use of force would ever be justified. Should the US agree it implies the US will not come to the defense of any ally in the region against China. This new model replaces the old model of great power relations where the rising power challenges the hegemon or vice versa.



                    The title refers to India's objection to BRI.

                    The other two initiatives are

                    "Asia for the Asians" which does not include the US and then epic sounding "Community of Common Destiny" (Tribute system)

                    American Leadership in the Asia-Pacific, Part 4: View from Beijing | Senate Committee on Foreign Relations | Nov 14 2017
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 18 Jan 21,, 03:36.

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                    • Originally posted by Oracle View Post

                      So, apart from America, all democracies suck when it comes to weapons acquisition, or in other words spending.
                      America has its problems too. Trump wanted a 350 fleet navy. From 275 they won't cross 305 even by 2025

                      https://www.defensenews.com/naval/20...ama-era-goals/

                      For context

                      US Ship Force Levels (1886 - present) | US Naval History & Heritage Command

                      In short this is a frustrating subject for everybody. The problem is always funds. And there are the flops


                      Beyond questions of costs, realizing such an ambitious fleet goal will be difficult for a service that has, for 20 years, a nearly unbroken record of pursuing flawed ship concepts and failed programs. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the Navy’s acquisition story has been one of spiraling costs and technological flops that are unlikely to survive in the heavily defended waters where they are expected to fight.

                      The Ford-class aircraft carrier, the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS), and the DDG-1000 Zumwalt-class Destroyers have all been painful and expensive experiences. The Navy has already all but abandoned the Littoral Combat Ship and the Zumwalt programs, and leaders have begun looking beyond the Ford program.
                      https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2021/0...ing-disasters/

                      Sobering read, its answers very well why we buy the big ticket items from abroad instead of developing them in house.

                      We get a working system with maintenance at the end.

                      To develop in house will likely cost more with no guarantee of a working system.

                      As the three examples above show this applies even to experienced builders so our odds of failure will be still higher starting out.

                      Quite simply a failure at this price has untenable political costs.

                      So we will be buying such items from abroad in the foreseeable future.
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 21 Jan 21,, 04:02.

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                      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        Horse puckey!

                        A SLBM launch against Beijing would take 10 minutes from launch to impact. 2 minutes to confirm and verify. 1 minute to relay to CO. 5 minutes to relay to the CMC. 1 minute to get Xi to ok the launch. 5 minutes to for crews to go launch procedures ... impact was 4 minutes before retalitory launch.

                        And these are the best case scenario. If Xi was dead asleep, he would need more than 1 minute to release the nukes.
                        The guy who made those statements is a colonel. He knows better but still he says these things.

                        Over confidence ? Playing to the home audience ?

                        ‘We’ll see how frightened America is’ — Chinese admiral says sinking US carriers key to dominating South China Sea | Navy Times | Jan 04 2019

                        Another example

                        Comment


                        • More like self advertisement. Chinese patriots would buy pro-China articles and pay to hear ex-military's lectures. Their traget audience ain't those with professional military experience.
                          Chimo

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                            China gives 'five differing explanations' for deploying large forces at LAC: Jaishankar

                            But doesn't mention the 5 explanations. DE, you digged up anything?
                            Nothing. He never gets into those 5 explanations.

                            Listen from the 31st minute onwards. The article summarised what he said

                            I'd d heard this speech shortly after he made it but i missed that he even mentioned 5 explanations.

                            What struck me about what he said is he was interested in getting the relationship back on track.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 21 Jan 21,, 13:34.

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                            • At a Crossroads? China-India Nuclear Relations After the Border Clash | Carnegie | Aug 19 2020

                              The strange thing about the Chinese analysts view of Indian nuke doctrine is they do not recognise the similarity with their own doctrine. If they did they would understand that is the primary reason India does not pose a nuke threat to them as is the case vice versa.

                              There is next to no discussion about Indian nukes in China because the CCP does not consider India a peer when it comes to nukes. So its not a topic for discussion. As if there some diktat in place prohibiting any talk on the subject until the CCP changes its mind.

                              This is why their views on Indian nukes seem so superficial. One of them going as far as to say they do not constitute a credible deterrent against China.

                              They worry about a India Pak nuke war, (ok to talk about because it does not involve China).

                              Well if that is a worry then are they ok if we take out Chengdu or any other southern Chinese city that is within range ? I don't think so.

                              Agni 5 is coming along and will be able to reach Beijing.

                              And if that is the case then India does have a credible deterrent against China. Or one that will preclude any nuclear blackmail.

                              Blackmail. That's the bottom line. The realists do not give a hoot about doctrines. They only consider vulnerability and ways to address it.
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 22 Jan 21,, 13:56.

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                              • This is Yang Chengjun today

                                Click image for larger version  Name:	Yang Chngjun now.jpg Views:	0 Size:	61.9 KB ID:	1571296

                                In uniform

                                Click image for larger version  Name:	Yang Chngjun uniform.jpg Views:	0 Size:	51.4 KB ID:	1571297

                                Four stars means he's a Senior colonel. Or the equivalent of a Brigadier.

                                RIbbons are for length of military service. Not seeing any special ones in there.

                                Qualifications

                                Yang Chengjun is a retired researcher of the Rocket Forces Staff, a colonel, professor, and a doctoral tutor in military operations research.

                                He has 47 years of relevant experience and enjoys a special allowance from the State Council.

                                Senior researcher of the National Security Council and National Think Tank;

                                deputy director of the National Institute of Urban Security Strategy;

                                expert reviewer of military science, equipment theory expert, final review expert of "Chinese Military Encyclopedia·Strategy Volume";

                                nuclear strategy expert, nuclear arms control Expert, missile technology expert, military history expert, chief military theory expert.


                                Wooo..they called him expert 8 times
                                Last edited by Double Edge; 21 Jan 21,, 21:40.

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