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Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

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  • Bengaluru company's artificial intelligence tool to interpret cross-border Mandarin intercepts
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      There's no real legal mechanism to stop the Chinese from building islands. However, there is legal mechanism saying those islands cannot be used for territorial claims.
      Which should have been enough to deter them from building them in the first place because there is no legal claim after doing so.

      What they were doing was grey area. Enough to send a message but low enough not to start a war.

      So if building those islands was not legal then stopping them or interfering with the process should not be restricted.

      But under Obama the line was the US does not take a position on territorial claims. They had a do not provoke, do not upset China mindset.

      Scarborough shoal back in 2012 taught them they could get away with it. Some would go so far as to say the US turned its back on a treaty ally ie. the Phillipines and Duterte has said that as well.

      Former director of intel and information operations for the US Pacific fleet, Captain Jim Fannell was reassigned in 2014 as he was a little too outspoken about the affair.

      We seen this before, in Afghanistan, haven't we.

      Conduz transfer back in 2004 comes to mind. The bad guys are being squirrelled out under your very nose and the orders from on high are to stand down (!)

      The point is if China wants to pull off these grey zone tactics with us they will find India a more than even match. The local populace are expert at this sort of nonsense and city councils have to deal with it.

      Laws & regulations say one thing but some how people manage to flout them and on a regular basis. The govt then has to resort to forced demolitions of illegal constructions, extensions and encroachments. If it wants to maintain its writ or allow them for also the same reason.

      No land records or clear title ? The game is grabbers, keepers until challenged.

      We managed it at Doklam. The challenge is we have to keep at it for a long time to come.


      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      As an engineer, those islands need constant maintenance. I'm damned scare of underwater errosion that would decimate the foundation.
      Read some where it was German tech that allowed them to build those islands. German surprised me, thought the Dutch would be the leaders in this field.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Dec 20,, 18:53.

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      • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
        DE is missing for a few days. Seems he is on some diplomatic mission.
        Been a quiet couple of weeks at the border.

        No updates from that Chinese village in Bhutan ? AIM & Nitin have not said anything here.

        Can we conclude the opposition news channel NDTV was up to their usual rumour mongering
        Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Dec 20,, 18:45.

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        • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
          So if building those islands was not legal then stopping them or interfering with the process should not be restricted.
          We do that and they can cut the communications cable between North America and Asia. Again, it is not illegal for them to build nor is it illegal for them to house people there. What is illegal is for them to claim the waters and the man-made land as theirs.

          That being said, it is hard to tell someone to get out when he's holding an AK47 when all you have is a piece of water with the law on it and not even an eviction order at that.

          Chimo

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          • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
            Hmmm, reluctantly agree.
            I'll give you another example why naval blockade or control of traffic is ineffective.

            It's trying to do what China already tried with air traffic and failed

            Back in 2013 they declared they will setup an ADIZ in the east China sea so every commercial aircraft transiting the area would have to identify itself.

            The process of doing so then gives them fine grain control over which countries assets they allow or disallow and screws up commercial interests who will not fight back. The same idea applies in the SCS. They can squeeze any country's supply chain that has interests in the region via ships.

            Guess what. They couldn't do it because the volume of traffic in and out of China, into Korea, Japan and back to Europe was just too high. Millions of flights pass through that region in just a year.

            ADIZ is for tracking hostile aircraft entering an area, for self defense.

            Does not scale up to traffic control of commercial aircraft which is what the Chinese wanted.
            Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Dec 20,, 20:00.

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            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              We do that and they can cut the communications cable between North America and Asia.
              The companies that participated in land reclamation were recently sanctioned. Imagine if that were done shortly after they started in 2013.

              Take what you said to its logical conclusion and we end up with the line to confront China is to invite war.

              This was the thinking that i have to admit even i bought into during that era. By not making them an adversary and keeping things ambiguous we avoid a war.

              When Reagan entered office they said he would start WW3 because of the manner in which he confronted the Soviets. Never happened.

              The Trump administration had it in for China for over three years. We're still not closer to a war.

              It's not that to have peace we have to go to war. It's the difference between surrender and standing up.


              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              Again, it is not illegal for them to build nor is it illegal for them to house people there. What is illegal is for them to claim the waters and the man-made land as theirs.

              That being said, it is hard to tell someone to get out when he's holding an AK47 when all you have is a piece of water with the law on it and not even an eviction order at that.
              I'd like to think the ICJ ruling their claims as without merit will have an effect.

              Not illegal for the Fillipinos to occupy the shoal either and that's what they did.

              State dept tries to mediate between the two parties between Apr & Jun 2012 and the agreement reached is both sides will vacate on Jun 12.

              PH did so, China stayed on and that is how they got the shoal.

              Pertinent lesson for India there in this current standoff.

              Better would have been for US to allow the Fillipinos to confront China on the spot while at the same time supporting them with public statements from time to time.

              The will to do so & mindset of the Obama administration was clearly lacking.

              Look at the difference with Taiwan now. Arms sales, statements and visits of support. That is the way.

              Americans are doing the same with India as well.

              Straight out of the cold war playbook.
              Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Dec 20,, 23:47.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Take what you said to its logical conclusion and we end up with the line to confront China is to invite war.
                And it will be a short war and they know it. It's a diplomatic tool, not a military one.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                When Reagan entered office they said he would start WW3 because of the manner in which he confronted the Soviets. Never happened.
                You don't want to know how close we were. Operation ABLE ARCHER and the Soviet countpart Operation RyAN. The Soviets were so scared of Reagan that it was official policy to put their nukes on a hair trigger.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                The Trump administration had it in for China for over three years. We're still not closer to a war.
                Trump is fighting a trade war. The FNOPS have two mission. To show that the Chinese don't own the waters ... and to show just how easy we can take them out. By the time the Chinese challenge our ships, it was already way too late. They need to challenge out ships 100 miles out to have any semblence of island defensive capbilitiies. They're not challenging our ships 100 miles out.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                It's not that to have peace we have to go to war. It's the difference between surrender and standing up.
                We don't have AK47s but rocket launchers will do.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                Straight out of the cold war playbook.
                Part of that playbook is to allow some semblance of maintaining a facade of negotiation, to allow the other side a bone. Deny them that bone like we did with Mao and Kruschev lead to decades of increased hostilities. In this case, let them thump their chest drown out our soft speech but let them see the big stick.
                Chimo

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                • Click image for larger version

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                  Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                  • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                    If war erupts, IOR region will be cut off for Chinese vessels (PLAN+trade). How long can China afford this blockade?
                    How long before the USN come slapping the both of you home so that American and European kids still get to enjoy their Iphones and their Android knockoffs. Woe be the day that you stop a shipment of 80 inch TVs from China before Superbowl.

                    RE: The Tanker War which drew in the USN and the resulting Operation PRAYING MANTIS.
                    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 02 Dec 20,, 21:14.
                    Chimo

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                    • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      ADIZ is for tracking hostile aircraft entering an area, for self defense.

                      Does not scale up to traffic control of commercial aircraft which is what the Chinese wanted.
                      It does not scale up to Chinese capabilities but that doesn't mean the capabilities don't exist. 11 Sept - US DOT and Transport Canada grounded all civilian and not just commercial flights. NORAD was ready to shoot down any plane not responding to such an order. CF-18s and F-16s were scrambled to meet incoming flights who were unable to respond due to communications malfunctions and escourted to appropriate airfields.
                      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 02 Dec 20,, 23:07.
                      Chimo

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                      • Now why would the CCP get its knickers in a twist over a LEMOA style agreement between Australia & Japan ?

                        China warns Australia and Japan over new defence pact, pledges countermeasures | ABC (Australia) | Nov 18 2020

                        The defence pact, called the Reciprocal Access Agreement, was agreed to '"in principle" during Prime Minister Scott Morrison's state visit to Japan, but still has not been formally signed.

                        The agreement would pave the way for the Australian and Japanese militaries to have access to each other's bases, and would deepen cooperation between the two countries.
                        We've got the same with Aus, US & Japan and they were mum over it.

                        "You could describe the deal as a paramilitary agreement," said Shi Yinhong, a Professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

                        "Although it's not a promise to aide the other country if under attack, it is however a deal to place one's own military in the other country for joint exercises.
                        Is this really such a big deal ?

                        Comment


                        • There's a few errors in this clip



                          India opposes the diamer basha dam because its building on disputed territory and not because it will force Indian farmers to relocate. The indus flows into Pakistan from India so daming up the Indus in PO J&K affects Pakistan

                          The part that has me confused is this 600 km tunnel to channel water into Xianjiang to turn it into California.

                          Where are they going to tap the water for that from. If they take it from the indus then it will affect India but also Pakistan so that's a non starter.

                          On the other side the Zangmu is already in operation, run of the river without reservoirs. Back in 2003 there were these grandiose plans to build many dams on the Yarlung, to date there is just the one with talk to build a couple extra.

                          http://tibet-edd.blogspot.com/2018/0...sion-plan.html

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                          How feasible will this be ? the Yarlung is in spate in spring. Fast moving, dropping in altitude quickly as it enters India.

                          I've posted years back in this thread of natural dams that are caused by landslides in the Yarlung. Then the water pressure builds and bursts the natural dam leading to floods either in Himachal or Arunachal as happened in 2002.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Dec 20,, 01:50.

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                          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                            Again, it is not illegal for them to build nor is it illegal for them to house people there. What is illegal is for them to claim the waters and the man-made land as theirs.

                            That being said, it is hard to tell someone to get out when he's holding an AK47 when all you have is a piece of water with the law on it and not even an eviction order at that.
                            If they can build there it means they control it. That is the lesson India learned at Pangong.

                            Have to interfere with that building when its happening or cede the land. Non resistance is acquiescence.

                            Whatever legal counts for squat at that point.

                            They are in possession and it will be harder to evict them after they build anything.

                            What stopped the Fillipinos sending some soldiers there for a standoff ?
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Dec 20,, 02:08.

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                            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              It does not scale up to Chinese capabilities but that doesn't mean the capabilities don't exist. 11 Sept - US DOT and Transport Canada grounded all civilian and not just commercial flights. NORAD was ready to shoot down any plane not responding to such an order. CF-18s and F-16s were scrambled to meet incoming flights who were unable to respond due to communications malfunctions and escourted to appropriate airfields.
                              That's the equivalent of declaring a NFZ. Not what China wants.

                              They wanted every plane & ship declaring themselves and manifest and if unsatisfactory will either be boarded for cargo inspection or instructed to leave the air space.

                              Tell me how any one can pull off that kind of control over a space with millions of flights per year.

                              Chinese were shown up for their lack of understanding of what an ADIZ is for

                              When people go on about Malacca dilemma they are stating the same thing. How did that ever become an article of faith back in 2005.

                              There is no Malacca dilemma when it comes to trade for China unless its a years long war !!
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Dec 20,, 02:34.

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                              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                You don't want to know how close we were. Operation ABLE ARCHER and the Soviet countpart Operation RyAN. The Soviets were so scared of Reagan that it was official policy to put their nukes on a hair trigger.
                                Ah, i was waiting for you to mention what you mean. You are referring to false alarms.

                                ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR: A Timeline of Close Calls

                                There you go. A compilation of 12 such misperceptions by both sides, some seem so ludicrous, courtesy of the "nukes deter squat" lobby

                                Documentary about Able archer

                                This is a good time to mention a topic that i missed earlier.

                                Modi reiterated NFU at the UNGA back in September. This means what Sundarji said about Indian Nuclear Doctrine back in the 90s still holds

                                Nothing has changed. "Warfighting is not deterrence" when it comes to India & China is still good.

                                I want to point out here in its reporting about Modi's address that the Indian media entirely neglected to mention it was the Defense minister back in 2016 that added an element of doubt about NFU.

                                It was about deterrence with the Paks that seems to have subsided since. Kargil to Balakote we'd hear on a regular basis how eager they were to nuke us, post Balakote that macho talk has evaporated.

                                Your view at the time was doctines aren't written in stone and need to evolve. Well, that is all well and good but this was going in a direction that increased crisis instability.

                                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                Part of that playbook is to allow some semblance of maintaining a facade of negotiation, to allow the other side a bone. Deny them that bone like we did with Mao and Kruschev lead to decades of increased hostilities. In this case, let them thump their chest drown out our soft speech but let them see the big stick.
                                If one looks at the Indian govt's handling of the standoff thus far, they got that bolded bit down to a T.

                                Much to the consternation of local commentators who think our actions aren't meaningful let alone act as any deterrent to similar future behaviour.

                                Have we showed them the big stick yet ? i don't know.

                                Talks mean no war. This bit nobody gets.

                                Instead it is misconstrued as playing for time when opportunities present for an attack. Why ?

                                Because why would they assemble so many at the border otherwise.

                                Nobody can explain this with any confidence.

                                How about some idiot in the CCP though it would be a good idea ? nah, this is too frivolous
                                Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Dec 20,, 19:34.

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