Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

[Double Edge]

Good to see Gen Panag upbeat on this latest development. What is interesting is in his map he includes Black top on our side of the LAC and therefore under our control

The LAC is confidential, neither India or China shares its exact location. Google earth sometimes gets the location wrong.

Generals Siwach & Panag with Shiv say Black top is under Indian control as they see the LAC including it.

Nitin & AIM do not think the LAC includes Black top. Wonder why.

The idea was to create a Galwan like incident at Mukhpari with the intent of getting a disengagement agreement and Indians off the ridges.

PLA failed. We're still there and will fire for effect if necessary.

India sits on Black Top with Helmet under its boots. A 1962 tactic by China is now likely | The Print | Sept 09 2020

[Oracle]

^ Hmmm, I am also of the opinion that a limited war is inevitable now. Xi wants the PLA to teach the Indian Army a lesson. PLA has come much ahead to go back without making any gains, it makes them look silly actually without having to show anything to their domestic audience. India has digged in. No face saving measures here for any side. Our economy has taken a beating due to Covid-19. Today is the day when Indian MoEA meets his Chinese counterpart in SCO summit. If this issue gets resolved, it will happen in the next 2-3 days, else we all should prepare for war, stock up on essentials etc.

[Oracle]

LAC stand-off: India will retaliate in case China breaches red lines, says top official

If its anything like Thai then it should be quite gentle : )

I used to smoke this particular weed when I was studying Engineering. Since then, I left smoking weed, and maybe tried a couple of times in Bangalore, Chennai, even London etc, but those were not at all good. I am planning to smoke it tomorrow night, will let you know if the stuff is as potent as it was 23 years back. And when I used to smoke it, along with a friend, we used to buy a small packet, which cost us Rupees 2, and it was enough to make 2 rolls, and sleep. Need a good sleep during exam time, yeah. Gentle, yes. But I remember, if I started laughing, I would laugh non-stop for 1-2 hours and sleep. Now I got a bigger packet for 125 bucks, and didn't source it from the original place. But, let's see. Weed is good, it doesn't harm the body, no hungovers, very cheap.

[Double Edge]

Then agree to a DMZ instead of a LAC. Then pay for manning the hell out of it on both sides.

Border is too long for a DMZ. We have fences with Pakistan & Bangladesh

Incidentally laying a wire fence was what triggered off the Nathu La clash in 1967

Good talk by the author of the book on the Nathu La clash

What is not answered is after the Nathu La & Cho La clashes why was there was no response from China ?

Over a thousand dead on both sides and Mao does nothing !!! A mere five years after the win ?

By Feb of 1967, they accused our embassy staff of spying, we reciprocated and staff were exchanged. So there was minimal staff at either embassy when the battles took place later in the year

The plan in 1965 was Paks take Kashmir and China takes Sikkim. Then India surrenders Sikkim in exchange for Kashmir. Paks never made much headway in this plan. China lost interest in Sikkim thereafter for some reason.

There was very little coverage of the Nathu La clashes in the Indian media and its not even very known which is odd as it marked the turning point in how we would deal with the Chinese. Surprise & swift resolute action. Gen Sundarjee used these same tactics to surround the Chinese at Sumdurong Chu in 1986 wthout firing a shot. Prompting Deng to invite Rajiv over the year after for talks.

Lastly, during the Cold War, no one relied on Chinese products or Chinese money. Does anyone actually think India can do without either? Can India actually fight a trade war with China?

We've seen more standoffs under XJP than in the previous 4 decades combined

Clearly our China policy cannot remain as is or this nonsense will just continue.

We cannot have one policy for trade and another for the border.

We've given China the equivalent of half a trillion dollars over the last decade.

Evidently China does not care for a stable economic relationship with us.

This is short sighted on their part because they're pissing off a market that will be 10 tr+ in the future.

As for doing without Chinese goods, it happens slowly. Import substitution along with incentives for local production.

Take Corona, in March we had no test kits or PPE suits. By Jun we were making them in India. No more shortages of either.

Start with tackling land & labour laws and make investment more attractive.

We won't refuse Chinese money but certain sectors will be off limits as is the case in numerous other countries.

Chinese money is like any other money that comes into India subject to the same rules.

Feasible for countries with a trade deficit with China. Harder to do for countries with a trade surplus.

i'm not aware of the contours of any trade war. We've banned Chinese apps but i don't see any punitive tariffs being levied for Chinese goods yet.

[Double Edge]

^ Hmmm, I am also of the opinion that a limited war is inevitable now. Xi wants the PLA to teach the Indian Army a lesson. PLA has come much ahead to go back without making any gains, it makes them look silly actually without having to show anything to their domestic audience. India has digged in. No face saving measures here for any side. Our economy has taken a beating due to Covid-19. Today is the day when Indian MoEA meets his Chinese counterpart in SCO summit. If this issue gets resolved, it will happen in the next 2-3 days, else we all should prepare for war, stock up on essentials etc.

If it does not get resolved in Moscow then it does not necessarily mean a limited war is inevitable. It just means it becomes protracted.

It's clear they have no way forward at Pangong as we've check mated them over there. If they wanted to do something they should have moved much faster, instead they gave us ten days to fortify positions and mine the place there. Sending a bunch of jokers with spears does not exactly inspire confidence here. You wonder who the hell is commanding these people.

What have they got so far ? finger 8 to finger 4. Northern shore of the Pangong isn't an invasion route. Have to cross Pangong and invade from the southern bank and we've closed that door for them. So they lost an invasion route there.

Now they have to look for opening elsewhere on the border and start the cycle again.

Are there any tactical wins to be had. This cat and mouse game is just starting.

They have not explored more than Ladakh so far. They put out feelers at Naku La in Sikkim back in May but that didn't go very far.

I just can't see the point of China starting a war. We don't even have to try to win, and if they can't beat us they lose.

There is no possibility of a China win as we match them with mirror deployments everywhere they can think of.

No short, sharp win.

They will come back to the table eventually but not after exploring all other options.

It's at this point it might dawn on them to settle the border once and for all. They will not reach this conclusion unless we force them there.

That should be our strategic objective in a nutshell.

Without firing a shot.

No more LAC crap, IB or nothing.

[Oracle]

What other options do they have? I don't see anything other than a limited war. They have come this far, going back without any gain to show for is nationalistic suicide. Indian Army will refuse to vacate the ridges occupied, even if peace prevails & the Modi government asks them to. Instead what China will find is more positions along the LAC being fortified. Defence purchases fast-tracked. Chinese investments under scrutiny. It's not just mobile apps as you mentioned in another post DE, it far more than that. We're screwing China as we see fit. It's incremental, but China is feeling the heat.

[Double Edge]

Who says PLA have to go gang busters now. Where did this time limit come from ? who set it

They can try to explore other areas. Depsang ?

Sumdurong Chu went on for nine months before they called it quits after Sundarjee ended up surrounding them.

Doklam went on for three, this one is only four months old.

For PLA to give up so early is premature.

No officer, Indian or PLA wants to get their asses shot off.

They want to have some fun. Table top exercises are boring.

Get out into the open, fresh air and stretch some legs.

This is a damn good training exercise for both sides.

The win for us is when the PLA informs the CCP there is no option to proceed short of war.

That is when the CCP decides its time to settle the border.

Who can accuse them of not trying everything else up to that point ?

[Double Edge]

Shiv was saying they can try to launch a massive attack in the hopes of panicking the Indian govt to capitulate.

High stakes gamble

What if Modi doesn't blink ?

[Double Edge]

Defence purchases fast-tracked. Chinese investments under scrutiny. It's not just mobile apps as you mentioned in another post DE, it far more than that. We're screwing China as we see fit. It's incremental, but China is feeling the heat.

Should Modi continue to remain in power then i believe this is the path we will follow medium term.

Military, diplomatic & economic.

XJP played nice with him while plotting behind his back.

We've seen this picture before with Agra summit and Kargil

[Double Edge]

here's an idea

How about trying to link up LAC with LOC ?

Can China do it

PLA Area of operations to remain around Ladakh in this case

[Officer of Engineers]

Over a thousand dead on both sides and Mao does nothing !!! A mere five years after the win ?

Can't be. It was a battalion level engagement by both sides, around 600 men total.

We cannot have one policy for trade and another for the border.

Yeah, that part confuses me also. We, the West, have sanctioned China also but are fully prepare to escalate economically if the Chinese pushes things.

We've given China the equivalent of half a trillion dollars over the last decade.

Not exactly one way, no matter how you slice it, the Chinese have helped to raise Indian standards of living but providing inexpensive goods. Just look at the Smartphone trade and how they impacted positively on India.

Evidently China does not care for a stable economic relationship with us.

Economic learning curve. Look at how the US treated the Banana Republics. It's very similar on how economic muscle being backed by military muscle to get their way. Actually, now that I think about it, it is very similar on how Mongol General Subetai wrecked the Middle East with both offering loot to the enemy and clobbering them at the same time.

This is short sighted on their part because they're pissing off a market that will be 10 tr+ in the future.

Old man speaking here. Don't plan anything past 5 years because what you think is going to happen ain't anywhere close to what will happen. Have a goal and adjust each year as needed. You want to know how the Chinese could regain this $10tril market? Do nothing on the LAC for a year. I mean nothing. No patrols. No set up. Nothing. Pretty easy way to regain Indian trust, no?

As for doing without Chinese goods, it happens slowly. Import substitution along with incentives for local production.

Take Corona, in March we had no test kits or PPE suits. By Jun we were making them in India. No more shortages of either.

And the Chinese would move to something else. It's not that the world can't make PPE or anything else the Chinese produces but that they took it upon themselves to make things cheaper than anyone else. It makes no sense to buy a $10 mask that lasts 25% longer than a $1 Chinese mask.

Start with tackling land & labour laws and make investment more attractive.

You should do that anyways regardless if the Chinese are involved or not.

We won't refuse Chinese money but certain sectors will be off limits as is the case in numerous other countries.

Chinese money is like any other money that comes into India subject to the same rules.

Yeah, that's the other thing India has to learn. Sales. That's the other thing that came out Tienamen. Bargin basement prices are fine but the sales job the Chinese did was unparallelled. They managed to convince sanctioning countries that their products were not only cheap but also good enough.

[Double Edge]

Can't be. It was a battalion level engagement by both sides, around 600 men total.

He is referring to two battles. Nathu La and fifteen days later at Cho La.

Yeah, that part confuses me also. We, the West, have sanctioned China also but are fully prepare to escalate economically if the Chinese pushes things.

Because its not something we wanted to do. Modi tried twice to make good but was rejected. The behaviour this year has changed people's minds.

Virus was bad enough. To then follow it up with a deployment that too after breaching protocols to do with exercises.

In what way can you the west escalate economically ?

You can increase import tariffs. That's something we are considering once the govt completes its sums.

You're also in blocs. Does NAFTA have anything to do with it.

If the US increases tariffs do Canada & Mexico automatically follow through ?

Not exactly one way, no matter how you slice it, the Chinese have helped to raise Indian standards of living but providing inexpensive goods. Just look at the Smartphone trade and how they impacted positively on India.

No doubt but also a lot of consumer goods. Right now, they're looking at ways to restrict children's toys.

Economic learning curve. Look at how the US treated the Banana Republics. It's very similar on how economic muscle being backed by military muscle to get their way. Actually, now that I think about it, it is very similar on how Mongol General Subetai wrecked the Middle East with both offering loot to the enemy and clobbering them at the same time.

I don't understand it. But we intend to convey they cannot take us for granted.

This isn't geo-economics. That's what they do with BRI and getting countries into debt.

Old man speaking here. Don't plan anything past 5 years because what you think is going to happen ain't anywhere close to what will happen. Have a goal and adjust each year as needed. You want to know how the Chinese could regain this $10tril market? Do nothing on the LAC for a year. I mean nothing. No patrols. No set up. Nothing. Pretty easy way to regain Indian trust, no?

Back in 2012 people insisting on border being settled before increasing trade were in a minority. So we followed the SE Asia model. Have disputes but still continue with trade.

That position has become untenable this year.

Without a border settlement what is the point of quiet border for a year. They've tossed out agreements and protocols agreed to going back to 1993.

How do you pretend nothing happened ? if we do that then we are in other words submitting to them.

I don't know how they can regain trust. They are affecting the way a lot of young people think about China.

We're not in the mood to offer any face saving gestures either.

And the Chinese would move to something else. It's not that the world can't make PPE or anything else the Chinese produces but that they took it upon themselves to make things cheaper than anyone else. It makes no sense to buy a $10 mask that lasts 25% longer than a $1 Chinese mask.

And everyone welcomed this until 3M's output in China was impounded and not allowed out of the country.

You should do that anyways regardless if the Chinese are involved or not.

The last attempt fizzled out back in 2015. The govt realised it was too big a fight so early in the term. The workers unions who support them pushed back.

Yeah, that's the other thing India has to learn. Sales. That's the other thing that came out Tienamen. Bargin basement prices are fine but the sales job the Chinese did was unparallelled. They managed to convince sanctioning countries that their products were not only cheap but also good enough.

Not talking about goods but investments, in this case with Indian startups. I don't think this money will be at risk nor will we restrict it.

[Officer of Engineers]

He is referring to two battles. Nathu La and fifteen days later at Cho La.

Cho La was coy level. All told, around 800-1000 men combined by both sides at both battles combined and no one has been talking 80-90% casualties on both sides.

And everyone welcomed this until 3M's output in China was impounded and not allowed out of the country.

And we don't have enough hospital beds. The food supply chain was wrecked. People lost jobs, etc, etc. This was completely unexpected. If we knew what to expect, we wouldn't be in this mess. India did herself good by ramping up PPE production but that doesn't mean that Indian hospitals won't revert back to a cheaper supplier once the crisis ended nor your new PPE factories won't close if they can't compete.

[Double Edge]

Cho La was coy level. All told, around 800-1000 men combined by both sides at both battles combined and no one has been talking 80-90% casualties on both sides.

Yes, an excerpt from the book says it was injured that numbered 1000, deaths were over 500. Thought i heard him say 1000 deaths. Maybe casualties. My bad.

The impact of those battles meant Sikkim remained unoccupied. Imagine if China took Sikkim. There is just a 25 km corridor at the plains level to cross to reach Bangladesh or East Pakistan at the time. Disconnecting the NE from the mainland. There is no sea access to the NE. They'd be able to hold that over us in perpetuity.

A pretty major strategic gain had they pushed back from those battles. But Mao did not. Why ?

The people would not find out about the deaths of the PLA but that is hardly a good answer.

And we don't have enough hospital beds. The food supply chain was wrecked. People lost jobs, etc, etc. This was completely unexpected. If we knew what to expect, we wouldn't be in this mess. India did herself good by ramping up PPE production but that doesn't mean that Indian hospitals won't revert back to a cheaper supplier once the crisis ended nor your new PPE factories won't close if they can't compete.

What about those tariffs ; )

This is precisely how we've allowed local industry to grow at the expense of better quality imports.

[Double Edge]

What other options do they have? I don't see anything other than a limited war. They have come this far, going back without any gain to show for is nationalistic suicide. Indian Army will refuse to vacate the ridges occupied, even if peace prevails & the Modi government asks them to. Instead what China will find is more positions along the LAC being fortified. Defence purchases fast-tracked. Chinese investments under scrutiny. It's not just mobile apps as you mentioned in another post DE, it far more than that. We're screwing China as we see fit. It's incremental, but China is feeling the heat.

What if they eventually agree to status quo ante ?

Does all you say above go out the window

SQA has been the demand right from the start.

FARK !


Jaishankar on India-China standoff in Ladakh: ‘Serious situation… need deep conversations at political level’ | IE | Sept 08 2020

Asked what was a tangible diplomatic marker to signal movement forward in the negotiations, he said: “(I have) a very practical issue right now, which is the issue of disengagement and de-escalation.”

Asked how he saw the future of the India-China relationship, Jaishankar said that “this is one area my crystal ball is a little clouded”.

He said he would leave it “open-ended” and both countries “must try to find mutual accommodation, because their ability to do that will determine (if there’s) an Asian century or not”.