Xi Jinping's historic power grab in China

[DOR]

General Miao Hua, the senior-most political cadre in the People's Liberation Army, is toast.
He is only the latest in a growing list of very senior military officers purged for what is officially said to be corruption.

[Monash]

Same old story. The more power is centralized in the hands of one single 'leader' the more paranoid that leader becomes! If only because once your at the 'top of the heap' the only place left to go is down.

[tbm3fan]

Speaking of Xi I would assume his hand is heavy in this.

China sees foreign threats ‘everywhere’ as powerful spy agency takes center stage

Hong KongCNN —
In a slick video marking the National Security Education Day, China’s top spy agency has a stern message for Chinese people: foreign spies are everywhere.

As ominous music plays, a broad-faced, beady-eyed man disguises himself as a street fashion photographer, a lab technician, a businessman and a food delivery driver – he even sets up an online honey trap – to glean sensitive state secrets in various places and industries.

“In the sea of people, you may have never noticed him. His identity is changeable and his whereabouts are hard to find,” a narrator says. “They are everywhere, cunning… and sneaky, and they may be right here in our lives.”

Eventually, Chinese police catch the spy in a dramatic ambush after state security authorities receive multiple tip-offs from the public.

“They can disguise as anyone. But among the crowds you and I together are protecting national security,” the narrator concludes. “We 1.4 billion people are 1.4 billion lines of defense.”

The three-minute video is the latest propaganda push by China’s powerful civilian spy agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS), to mentally arm the Chinese public against what it sees as the growing threat of foreign espionage.

Under Xi Jinping, China’s most authoritarian leader in decades, the country’s notoriously secretive spy agency has drastically raised its public profile and broadened its remit.

From a shadowy organization without any discernable public face, the MSS has been transformed into a highly visible presence in public life.

In Chinese cities, posters and slogans promoting national security are now a common sight on sidewalks, subway trains, campuses and billboards. On social media, the ministry commands a massive following with near-daily commentaries, short videos or even comic strips sounding the alarm about supposedly ubiquitous threats to the country.

According to the MSS, foreign spies are omnipresent and infiltrating everything – from mapping apps to weather stations. The ministry has also posted details of what it claims are espionage activities carried out by American and British spy agencies, and detailed how Chinese nationals studying or working abroad have allegedly been recruited by the CIA.

Last week, as part of a documentary to mark National Security Education Day, the MSS revealed that a Chinese scientist convicted of selling state secrets to a foreign intelligence agency was executed in 2016. The documentary did not explicitly mention which country, but its images show an American flag and the US Capitol building.

The MSS’ transformation is part of Xi’s sweeping pivot to ramp up national security in the face of heightened geopolitical tensions and mounting domestic challenges.


RELATED ARTICLEBeijing claims US citizen jailed for life in China was decorated spy who worked undetected for decades

As US-China relations fray, the MSS has undertaken significant efforts to provide guidance to other government agencies and broader society, said Xuezhi Guo, a professor of political science at Guilford College in the US.

“These endeavors aim to foster anti-espionage awareness and enhance security measures in light of the evolving landscape of espionage threats,” he said. “The goal is to empower Chinese citizens and entities with the knowledge and skills required to bolster their vigilance and preempt espionage activities effectively.”

The emphasis on external threats also helps Beijing deflect criticism at home over its own policies by shifting blame onto “foreign forces” – a playbook the Chinese government has repeatedly applied during periods of public discontent, most recently over protests in late 2022 against Xi’s hardline measures to prevent Covid.

And the spy agency’s extending reach is a sign of the increasing securitization of Chinese life and society under Xi, where “an incredibly wide array of issues can be viewed as threats to national security,” said Sheena Chestnut Greitens, director of the Asia Policy Program at the University of Texas at Austin.

High profile

The MSS was born out of a reassessment of China’s national security needs in the early 1980s, as the country emerged from decades of political upheaval and self-imposed isolation under Chairman Mao Zedong to embrace market reforms and open up to the world.

It was founded in 1983 by merging an intelligence department of the ruling Chinese Communist Party and a counterespionage unit in the police force. It oversees intelligence and counterintelligence both within China and overseas, with provincial and municipal branches extending throughout the country.

It is often likened to a combined CIA and FBI, though the MSS long operated under a heavier veil of secrecy, without an official website or any publicly listed contacts or spokesperson.

But China’s spy agency has gradually stepped out of the shadows as Xi makes national security a key priority.

In 2015, the MSS established its first public point of contact by setting up a hotline and a website to encourage people to report any suspected threats to state security. In the same year, China designated April 15 as National Security Education Day.

And in 2020, the ministry started to churn out promotional materials – from posters to animations – under a dedicated office named the National Security Propaganda Studio.

The following year, the MSS gave an unprecedented written Q&A to state media, introducing its role and recruitment channels to the public for the first time. Later in the year, an official in charge of the spy agency’s educational and propaganda work showed up on the prime-time news program of state broadcaster CCTV – a rare appearance that was noted by state media.



“Shenyin Special Investigation Squad” is a comic series based on real-life counterespionage operations, according to China's spy agency. Ministry of State Security
The most drastic move came last August when the agency made its social media debut: it launched an official account on WeChat, China’s most popular social app, with a rallying call for “all members of society” to join its fight against foreign infiltration. Its posts regularly rack up hundreds of thousands of views and are widely shared by state media outlets.

And this year, the ministry dialed up its multimedia activity. In January, it launched a comic strip series called “Shenyin Special Investigation Squad,” featuring a team of five secret police officers hunting down foreign spies – plots it said were inspired by real-life counterespionage operations.

In one installment, a group of foreign-looking characters are tracked by the secret police as they try to extract strategic rare earth metals under the guise of survey work for real estate development; in another, an undercover MSS agent gets a job at a consulting firm to investigate its suspicious deeds, including its connections with experts in key sensitive fields.

“MSS’ decision to establish a social media presence is an anomaly given its traditionally low profile,” said Greitens at the University of Texas, who has studied China’s security apparatus.

One reason for the change may be the minister of state security, Chen Yixin, who was appointed in late 2022, according to Greitens.

Chen is widely seen as a trusted aide of Xi, having served under him for years when Xi was a provincial official in Zhejiang province. And he has a track record of using social media to drive home the official message.

“Chen has been saying for years that new media are important to guide public opinion on the party’s political-legal and national security work. So, part of this appears to be him putting his personal stamp on the Ministry’s work,” Greitens said.

In addition, China’s National Security Commission – a powerful body headed by Xi – approved a document on enhancing public education around national security work last May, which “seems to provide high-level cover for MSS’ course of action here,” she added.

Broad remit

The MSS’s warnings appear aimed at a wide variety of targets.

In one post from last year, the agency said it had discovered hundreds of “illegal” weather stations that were spying for foreign countries, including around sensitive sites such as military bases, defense companies’ property and major grain-producing regions.

In another, the agency warned against commentaries that seek to “denigrate” the Chinese economy through “false narratives” that promote China’s decline – calling such criticism an attempt to attack its socialist system and “strategically contain and suppress China.”

“Things that might have previously been considered purely scientific or purely in the realm of business and economics now have this securitized layer to them,” Greitens said. “Whether it’s the collection of data, or market research by a foreign consulting firm.”

Last May, CCTV reported state security authorities had raided several offices of Capvision, an international consultancy firm with headquarters in Shanghai and New York. It came after authorities raided the Beijing office of US firm Mintz Group, which specializes in corporate due diligence, while detaining five of its local staff, and questioned employees at the Shanghai branch of American consultancy firm Bain.

The broad scope of threats on the MSS’ radar is closely linked to Xi’s “comprehensive national security concept,” an overarching framework that includes more than 20 components to state security. It covers everything from politics, economy, defense, culture and ecology to cyberspace, big data and artificial intelligence, and extends from the deep sea and the polar regions to space.

China has also broadened its already sweeping counterespionage law, casting a wider net over what the state deems as potential acts of spying.


RELATED ARTICLEChina says a foreign consultant was found to be spying for Britain’s MI6

It now encompasses “a much broader range of activities, including what some in the foreign business community perceive as ordinary, everyday business behaviors,” said Guo at Guilford College. “This expansion also extends to the state’s authority to investigate and seize electronic devices, computers, and digital assets, raising heightened concerns about cybersecurity.”

China’s heightened focus on national security stems not only from what it sees as a deteriorating international environment – especially its great-power rivalry with the US, but also concerns about the slowing Chinese economy. The property crisis and unpaid salaries have already sparked sporadic protests, and a worsening economic downturn could risk triggering further domestic unrest.

Through the emphasis on national security, Guo said, Xi strategically redirects part of the criticism and blame for his policy failures onto external forces.

‘Conflicted messages’

The MSS’ propaganda and education campaigns – as well as its generous cash rewards for national security tip-offs – have spurred enthusiasm online for catching foreign spies.

On Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, influencers have rushed to produce short videos teaching their followers how to identify spies. In the comment sections, users shared their own experiences of reporting or encountering a suspected spy.

On Xiaohongshu, China’s Instagram-like platform, a young woman caused a stir last year after she called the MSS’ hotline to report her boyfriend as a suspected spy. The blogger had been encouraged to do so by commentators after she said in an earlier post that her boyfriend could not remember the exact lyrics and tunes of China’s national anthem. “Ladies, is it normal if your boyfriend can’t sing the national anthem?” she asked in the post.

Greitens noted that past examples from other countries have shown over-encouraging or incentivizing citizens to report on potential security threats can backfire.

“The tendency is to over-report,” Greitens said. “What happens then is you can actually get lots of false positives in a system that can end up having a really corrosive long-term effect … the potential effects for Chinese citizens and foreign businesses could really start to accumulate quickly.”

The relentless warnings from the MSS and its expanding powers have already raised alarms in the international business community, at a time when the Chinese government is trying to woo foreign investment to help revitalize a slowing economy.

Last month, a day after Xi hosted a group of American executives in Beijing and less than a week after the annual China Development Forum attended by about 100 global CEOs, the MSS released a dramatic video warning the public to stay vigilant against foreign consultancy firms working as a cover for foreign intelligence services.

The six-minute “micro movie,” which the agency says is based on real events, shows a consultancy working on behalf of an unidentified foreign spy agency to steal commercial secrets from a Chinese company seeking to go public abroad – and gleaning sensitive information about government industrial subsidies and the Chinese air force.

Experts say such videos risk undermining Beijing’s central message that China is trying to lower barriers for foreign business and investment.

“This is indicative of the conflicting messages coming from the top, as well as an unreasonable overemphasis on national security issues that is driving foreign investors away,” said James Zimmerman, a Beijing-based partner at American law firm Perkins Coie LLP.

“The ambiguity of the laws and lack of judicial oversight to prevent the security agencies from overreaching, creates much uncertainty for foreign companies.”


RELATED ARTICLEChina’s spy-hunting campaign has a new target: ‘Illegal’ weather stations

Following China’s crackdown on the consulting industry, most foreign consultancies have adjusted to the new environment, with some moving potentially controversial due-diligence or fact-finding work outside of mainland China, Zimmerman said.

“Some that remain in China are getting called in for ‘tea,’” he added, referring to a euphemism for police questioning. “Not because they are under investigation, but to have a chilling effect and as a reminder that they, too are being watched by the security agencies.”

Since starting his unprecedented third term in power in late 2022, Xi has repeatedly urged officials to balance development and security, calling security “the foundation of development.” But the highly visible warnings and raids by the MSS have fueled concerns among foreign businesses that, should the two appear to conflict, security will take precedence.

The MSS is “driven more by politics than reality or good common sense,” Zimmerman said. “But this is China with Xi Jinping characteristics.”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/21/china...hnk/index.html

Probably not a good time to now visit China. An American walking around with a camera taking pictures.

[Monash]

ABC News is reporting that the Chinese Foreign Minister Xi is MIA and has been now for something like almost 3 weeks!

[DOR]

A note on Hong Kong Newspeak...

"Broadcasters need not be 'impartial' in programs involving national education, national identity and the national security law, the Communications Authority suggested, as television and radio stations may breach the law if they try to include opposing views in an effort to appear balanced."

[Monash]

BBC News

Vicious, regime threatening FLOWERS ??


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-65803053

Probably roses, those thorns might injure a party member.

[DOR]

BBC News

June 4, 2023

Tiananmen Square: Hong Kong police detain activists on anniversary of massacre

… “Among those detained was 67-year-old Alexandra Wong, a prominent campaigner nicknamed "Grandma Wong". Amid a tense evening in Hong Kong, she was arrested while carrying flowers near Victoria Park, ...”


Vicious, regime threatening FLOWERS ??


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-65803053

[DOR]

If XJP wins his third term, he is going to weaken China in the long term.

XJP will be 'our man' in Beijing

That's like saying Mao Zedong was a peasant nationalist, and just wanted to be a friend of America.

[Double Edge]

That's three current heavy hitters he's worked closely with, which implies that he is probably not speaking out of turn. And, it should be noted that on July 5 last year, Qiu issued a standard commentary on Xi Jinping's July 1, 2021, speech, with multiple mentions of Xi's name.[/FONT]

If XJP wins his third term, he is going to weaken China in the long term.

XJP will be 'our man' in Beijing

[DOR]

DOR what do you think of this article about Hong Kong by Bloomberg. Factual, partially factual, way off base or what? Were you not in HK for awhile?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...y?srnd=premium

I was in HK 1984-2015, 31+ years spanning China's Reform Era, Tiananmen, The Hangover [sic], The Great East Asian Economic Crisis, the North Atlantic Financial Crisis, and Occupy Central.

“The death knell for Hong Kong has been sounded many times since Britain returned this city to China in 1997. But executives say this time it’s different, and more ominous.”
Amen.

Combine Beijing's blatant interference in Hong Kong's internal affairs (2003 +) with extreme quarantine measures for a city that exists because of (among other things) the ease with which people can move around Asia, and This Time Is Different.

Hong Kong is dying, day by day.

Guns N’ Roses and Katy Perry ?
How about the Rolling Stones and Eric Clapton?
The Beatles played Hong Kong.
Nixon banged a Chinese spy in Hong Kong.


When Hong Kong was just the most expensive city in the world (US$10,000-$50,000 monthly rents), and slots in English-language schools ($100,000 p.a.) couldn't be had for love or (more) money, banks and MNCs put staff in Singapore, because it was a ... an option, if not a good one.

When China cracked down, they said “we're not political; we're just here for the business.”

When those extremely expensive ex-pats can't fly around the region every week, there is very little reason to keep a large presence in the city. Sure, the banking system is the only world-class one in the Asian half of the world. But, the legal system is no longer in the same ranks, and the quality of life is not nearly up to what it was Back in the Day.

We left in late 2015, partly for non-HK reasons, and partly because the Sinofication was making it very difficult to see much of a future.

[tbm3fan]

DOR what do you think of this article about Hong Kong by Bloomberg. Factual, partially factual, way off base or what? Were you not in HK for awhile?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...y?srnd=premium

[DOR]

Qiu Qingshan, the author being studied, is a member of the 19^th (current) Central Committee, an unusual place for someone who was a member of the 18^th Discipline Inspection Commission (such lateral transfers are rare). He is dean of the CCP Party History and Documentation Research Institute.

When Qiu was on the of Qinghai Province CCP Standing Committee, and head of provincial propaganda (2001-09), PBSC member Zhao Leji was provincial party secretary (2003-07). He then moved to the center, to central committee party history research, under PBSC member Wang Huning. He was named to the Central Discipline Inspection Commission when Vice President (and former PBSC member) Wang Qishan was its head.

That's three current heavy hitters he's worked closely with, which implies that he is probably not speaking out of turn. And, it should be noted that on July 5 last year, Qiu issued a standard commentary on Xi Jinping's July 1, 2021, speech, with multiple mentions of Xi's name.

[Double Edge]

Been meaning to make a post here since the plenary concluded several weeks ago. This analysis piece from Nikkei sums up what other people have said

This piece refers to an article in the People's Daily but I recall Elmer Yuen saying the resolutions passed during the plenary were themselves in favour of former leaders and left out XJP.

I see the referred article of Qu Qingshan as summary of those resolutions for the masses.

When China's leading paper ignores Xi, all bets are off | Nikkei | Dec 23 2021

Xi does not get a mention but earlier leaders do. This means his tenure from now to the next year is on thin ice. Did not need a China expert to figure this one out

KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer
DECEMBER 23, 2021 04:04 JST
Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff writer and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.


Something unusual is occurring in China.

This became evident when a commentary was published in the People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, without a single mention of Xi Jinping, the party's general secretary and nation's president. For an article titled "Learning deeply about the spirit of the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party," one would assume Xi would be part of the discussion.

After all, the four-day session held last month adopted a new "resolution on history" that showered praise on Xi.

Instead, the commentary heaped praise on the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, referring to him by name nine times. The reform and opening-up policy that Deng implemented in the 1970s was "a great awakening of the Party," the commentary says.

Deng also "liberated people's thoughts from the long-running constraint of leftist dogmatism," according to the piece by Qu Qingshan, president of the Institute of Party History and Literature of the Central Committee of the Communist Party.

This expression is harshly critical of the mistakes made by Mao Zedong that led to the disastrous Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976. The piece stops just short of lashing out at Mao's cult of personality -- a move that would have been, in effect, an implicit criticism of the concentration of power in Xi's hands.

That the commentary also details the achievements by Xi's two predecessors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, both of whom remained on Deng's reform path, makes clear the point Qu was trying to make. Jiang and Hu made China the second-biggest economy, top exporter and the world's factory, Qu said.

The article implies that since the Xi Jinping era began in 2012, China has lived on the leftovers from the wonderful feast prepared by Deng, Jiang and Hu.

What is noteworthy is Qu's position. The president of the Institute of Party History and Literature is a heavyweight whose key role is the interpretation of party history. By definition, he would have also been deeply involved in the compilation of the recently passed "resolution on history," which attempts to portray Xi as surpassing Deng in terms of status

Furthermore, Qu is a sitting member of the Central Committee, equivalent to a cabinet minister. A participant of last month's sixth plenum, Qu is well aware of the current atmosphere hanging over the party.

"Two camps of thought exist in the party," one source said. "Historically speaking, it is always better when there is a healthy debate within the party."

Qu's article elicited a quick counterattack. Four days after it was published, the People's Daily ran an article by Jiang Jinquan, director of the Policy Research Office of the Party Central Committee, on the same theory page.

Titled "Upholding the party's overall leadership," the commentary praises Xi's policies and echoes the third resolution on history in attacking the distributism and liberalism that preceded the current leader.

Discussing the party's overall leadership boils down to nothing short of defending the concentration of power in Xi's hands.

Jiang's article, unlike Qu's, completely ignores Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Mao makes two appearances, and Xi is mentioned by name six times.

The People's Daily is dubbed "the throat and tongue" of the party. The two articles hint at two ideological camps within the party, with those supporting the path of Deng, Jiang and Hu on one side, and those behind Mao and Xi on the other.

One major rift is likely over the third resolution on history, which many say carries huge contradictions.

Jiang Jinquan was only tapped as head of the Policy Research Office last year. He is not a Central Committee member and thus ranks lower than Qu.

But at this stage, it is hard to say which of the two theoreticians represents the mainstream view.

What is important is that the struggle over political lines is closely linked to the formulation of actual economic policies.

Qu's article was published on Dec. 9, during the Central Economic Work Conference, which discusses economic policies for the following year. Xi and Premier Li Keqiang attended.

The commentary put pressure on the conference to continue with the policy of reform and opening-up.

Speaking at an economic forum in early December, prominent economist Li Daokui, an adviser to Premier Li, made important remarks on this issue. He warned against economic optimism, citing receding domestic demand.

Harsh conditions will greet the Chinese economy in the coming years, the economist said. Over the next five years, China will face its most difficult period since the policy of reform and opening-up was put into effect four decades ago, he added.

His remarks came at a sensitive time and provoked wide repercussions.

The five years Li Daokui referred to overlap with Xi's upcoming term, presuming Xi remains China's top leader at the party's next national congress, not quite a year from now.

The economic picture Li Daokui painted was grim. Property prices will be in structural decline, and local governments will have to deal with tight finances, he said. The education and entertainment industries will have to contend with new regulations.

As a long-term prescription for boosting domestic demand, Li Daokui presented a Li Keqiang-style policy of "integrating urban and rural areas."

The 58-year-old scholar heads the Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking at Tsinghua University. He also serves as a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the country's top political advisory body. He has an influential voice.

Meanwhile, interesting remarks also came from former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, who revealed that Chinese statistics do not reflect negative changes in the economy. His words caused a stir because they came immediately after the Central Economic Work Conference.

Lou essentially said China's economic figures, including the country's growth rate for 2021, which is to be announced early next year, omit anything negative.

He is a "reformist" close to former Premier Zhu Rongji, who was tapped by Deng to reform state-owned companies in the 1990s. As Lou has kept a delicate distance from Xi's economic line, his latest remarks are meaningful.

A statement issued after the recent Central Economic Work Conference used the Chinese character that means "stability" as many as 25 times. The repetitiveness, though, implies instability in the Chinese economy.

The statement and remarks by Li Daokui and Lou Jiwei give clues to how severe China's current economic situation is. So does the announcement on Monday that China is trimming interest rates for the first time in one year and eight months.

Amid swirling rumors that Qu might have drawn ire from Xi for praising the reform and opening-up policy, Xi quickly moved to tighten his grip on party members.

The leader issued an important instruction to all party members at a national meeting on the work of the party's internal regulations, using his unique vocabulary, such as "centralized and unified leadership," "long-term governance" and "the country's enduring prosperity and stability."

The instruction was conveyed by Ding Xuexiang, head of the party's General Office, a close aide to Xi and a skilled administrator.

The struggle over political lines is playing out between the Mao-Xi disciples, who prefer the concentration of political power, and the Deng-Jiang-Hu believers, who raise the banner of reform and opening-up.

The third resolution of history, which reflects Xi's ambitions to overtake Deng, has reignited this political struggle, which has also become a battle over how to deal with China's conspicuously slowing economy.

[Double Edge]

"Very simple. Whoever can better explain what is happening wins."

So, propaganda is the key.
Got it.

Propaganda is just a statement of intent. Nothing wrong with it.

Those with access to the govt get a better take on that intent and what govt wants to do.

So keep an inventory on what was promised at the outset and then compare with what they delivered.

Whether that is in line with what was promised or not.

This is how i do things with free countries.

I don't know how well it works with China since there is no negative feedback loop.

I'll take what i get that fits how I perceive things are going. This may or may not be in line with the experts.

[DOR]

"Very simple. Whoever can better explain what is happening wins."

So, propaganda is the key.
Got it.