U.S. Directly Challenges China's Air Defense Zone : B52 flies over

[winton]

and despite the link you provided, Japans 2 x largest carriers have just announced that they won't comply.

Do you think that is realistic? This is rhetoric to placate the japanese govt and or public. In practice they are going to comply.

[cdude]

Hardly, they've successfully managed to start turning one of the most peaceful countries since the end of WW2 into a country that now realises that soft words aren't respected......

Are you kidding me? They are the most peaceful country ONLY after WW2? Japanese kids are taught that they have been the most peaceful country since sliced bread was invented.

[Officer of Engineers]

Hardly, they've successfully managed to start turning one of the most peaceful countries since the end of WW2 into a country that now realises that soft words aren't respected and that the chinese will turn off and on anti-japanese sentiment when it suits them - so in case you haven't realised the japanese are starting to change. it might be too subtle for some to realise, but their tolerance has worn thin.

GF, are you serious? We both have veterans from the Battle of Hong Kong demanding compensation. Never mind the Comfort Women issue which I find the most disturbing of all. The Japanese raped their grandmothers. You actually think Koreans and Chinese are going to forget?

[gf0012-aust]

GF, are you serious? We both have veterans from the Battle of Hong Kong demanding compensation. Never mind the Comfort Women issue which I find the most disturbing of all. The Japanese raped their grandmothers. You actually think Koreans and Chinese are going to forget?

Nope, not saying that the Chinese or Koreans will forget - but the japanese have had no inclination for military adventure since the end of WW2.

[gf0012-aust]

Are you kidding me? They are the most peaceful country ONLY after WW2? Japanese kids are taught that they have been the most peaceful country since sliced bread was invented.

and chinese kids get turned on and off by the govt at will.

Hell I've interviewed chinese students who think Tainanmen Sq is a myth - lets not get too keen about how the governments in that region teach their kids or it could be a long night

[gf0012-aust]

Do you think that is realistic? This is rhetoric to placate the japanese govt and or public. In practice they are going to comply.

the whole region in debate is filled with countries that are unprepared to lose face - good luck with a peaceful resolution
if someone pushes too far then all the fanbois will get their wish and then suddenly realise that its real life and not Command and Conquer

or have you not frequented chinese forums recently and seen all the kids thrusting their chests out as though they are already part of some supreme race?

[Inst]

If you look at how the Chinese dealt with the Vietnamese in the 1980s you can see a paradigm for handling the Japanese. The Chinese put the northern Vietnamese provinces under heavy pressure in the 1980s, inciting the Vietnamese to fortify their northern provinces at the expense of growth, and the PLA would periodically start skirmishes designed to bleed the VPA. It provided the PLA with an opportunity to obtain combat experience which was sorely lacking in a post-cultural revolution military, ruined the Vietnamese economy, and achieved a favorable settlement after the end of the Soviet Union; when the PLA was not capable of defeating the VPA in a head-on engagement, as shown in the 1979 war.

The Japanese are already at 250% debt-to-GDP; an increase of military spending would require higher tax rates in an economy already overburdened with debt. Abenomics has seen partial successes, but an increase in the consumption tax is planned for April, and it stands a decent risk of torpedoing the Japanese economy again.

The trick is that as long as it's kept to skirmishes, provocations, and threats, and prevented from becoming an all-out war; the Chinese are at advantage. If it degenerates into a full-scale war, the Chinese have more to lose.

===

In the same way, the Japanese are not the Vietnamese. The Vietnamese have a long history of Chinese invasion and subjugation, and were not expecting a type of harassment warfare; in a conventional confrontation they would have won. The Japanese, on the other hand, are more adroit with strategy; having successfully defeated Chinese attempts at overawing them in the past, and as stated before, they are a US ally.

[Officer of Engineers]

Nope, not saying that the Chinese or Koreans will forget - but the japanese have had no inclination for military adventure since the end of WW2.

The point is that both the Chinese and the Korean populace (and the Taiwanese) are looking for a fight ... and the Japanese populace just gave it to them.

[winton]

the whole region in debate is filled with countries that are unprepared to lose face - good luck with a peaceful resolution
if someone pushes too far then all the fanbois will get their wish and then suddenly realise that its real life and not Command and Conquer

or have you not frequented chinese forums recently and seen all the kids thrusting their chests out as though they are already part of some supreme race?

I've gone onto sinodefenceforum and the kids there seem pretty reasonable.

Its going to be a corporate decision. Are they going to risk their passengers lives or present that perception? It isn't that big a deal for ANA or JAL to comply.

[gf0012-aust]

I've gone onto sinodefenceforum and the kids there seem pretty reasonable.

Its going to be a corporate decision. Are they going to risk their passengers lives or present that perception? It isn't that big a deal for ANA or JAL to comply.

Well, if you think that the chinese are going to run a KAL 007 scenario because they want to teach the japanese a lesson - then good luck to them if they think that they will be able to ride out the storm of political and public oppobrium. Are the chinese going to risk passengers lives on a jet to make a point? If they do so its because they want to push the point - and that will result in my prev.

you're being a tad disingenuous if you think that its just a corporate decision - japanese companies, like chinese companies pay heed to govt direction.

[gf0012-aust]

that I have to disagree. Japanese military buildup, especially its naval and airforce is the strongest in North Asia started way before the current round of dispute with China. Look no farther than how South Korean view their dispute with japan and where its naval force is pointing to, it is a direct response to the Japanese SD navy. They do carry a bit stick like you already hinted at in some of your posts.

They've been building up for decades - and as said before in absolute real terms, they have the second most powerful navy in the world (in absentia of nukes) - but the attitudinal shift, the desire to stop soft peddling the defence forces as defensive etc... has started in the last few years - and really the tipping point was when the chinese govt was turning protests on and off when the japanese soccer team was over there.

They're also keen to start selling military capability to friends - and there's no shortage of countries wanting to buy into some of the japanese military capability and advances (space, digital systems, acoustics, manuf efficiencies, integration opportunities). eg the Virginais are considered the cream of contemp ship building progs and are based on an assessment of japanese production methods - quite a few countries haves been keen to get engaged with them since their attitude to prev navel gazing has changed.

The rise of the japanese right in recent years is directly linked to the way that china turned on and off its youth re the japanese in recent years - they made good local political capital but opened the gates to the other demons....

[Inst]

gf0012: WVR escort by fighter planes; you don't actually have to fire on the aircraft and there's no reason for a commercial pilot to decide to "F*** the police" when military jets are barking orders. The scenario to worry about is if the PLAAF screws up again and crashes their plane into the passenger jet.

===

An article on limitations of Chinese threats against Japanese force, look for the part where the Qing stratagems to manage the Japanese fall apart because they simply can't fight:

http://www.okazaki-inst.jp/mutsu_mun..._17.pdf

====

One other question; are you sure the PLAAF is inferior to the JASDF in the ECS region? The Chinese maintain a far larger 4th generation air-fleet. Or does that not matter, since fleet air defense by the superior JMSDF would prevent victorious engagements?

[gf0012-aust]

gf0012: WVR escort by fighter planes; you don't actually have to fire on the aircraft and there's no reason for a commercial pilot to decide to "F*** the police" when military jets are barking orders. The scenario to worry about is if the PLAAF screws up again and crashes their plane into the passenger jet.

agreed, but forcing down a civilian jet will have just as much negative impact - they're still bitching about dual use tech from europe embargoes - and the threat of trade sanctions is one of the reasons why countries are looking at production/manufacturing in africa or to more stable governments (ie governance) like India.

[weaponww]

the whole thing started when japan break the status by purchasing the island from private party. which in turn really piss china off. Now its at a situation that both won't back down.
also japan doesn't even recognize the dispute exist which just make china even more anger on this issue.
and then there is the historical thing that japan done to china/korea, with all these combine its pretty hard for china just sit back now.

[Inst]

For now, multiple Western and Asian carriers have indicated their intent to abide by Chinese ADIZ, so it's more a matter of who decides to act otherwise and take their nice, apolitical passengers out on unintentional geopolitical activism.