China-Taiwan: Aircraft carrier 'seals off' island on third day of drills

[Amled]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65229003
I bet that the pilots and all others; including the mission planners back in Beijing, are inordinately pleased and proud.
They now know that they can seal off the island of Taiwan!!!
Of course it did help that there was no opposing anti-aircraft ground fire. That there were no opposing planes in the air to contest them,
But hey, they can return home knowing that in an “uncontested” campaign, they can win in a “walk-over”!

[Officer of Engineers]

What's worrying is that Taiwan didn't detect the carrier.

[astralis]

on the other hand, the carrier didn't conduct a lot of sorties anyway. political symbolism.

[Officer of Engineers]

on the other hand, the carrier didn't conduct a lot of sorties anyway. political symbolism.

The worrying part for me is that psychologically, we're not oriented to receiving strikes (carrier borned or sub launched) from the Pacific side of the island.

[tbm3fan]

What's worrying is that Taiwan didn't detect the carrier.

I would have to imagine that the US Navy knew where that carrier was and if it were in position to actually launch real attacks it wouldn't be long for this world.

[Amled]

What's worrying is that Taiwan didn't detect the carrier.

Here’s a layman’s question.
Would it not be in the interest of the Taiwanese military to red-faced admit that they hadn’t seen the aircraft or the carrier, even if they had!
After all wouldn’t it be a better tactical move to have a potential enemy consider you weaker or ill prepared?

[Officer of Engineers]

I would have to imagine that the US Navy knew where that carrier was and if it were in position to actually launch real attacks it wouldn't be long for this world.

Someone got to be collecting acoustic signatures.

Here’s a layman’s question.
Would it not be in the interest of the Taiwanese military to red-faced admit that they hadn’t seen the aircraft or the carrier, even if they had!
After all wouldn’t it be a better tactical move to have a potential enemy consider you weaker or ill prepared?

We're at the deterrence stage, not warfighting. And deterrence is not warfighting. We want the enemy to think that attacking would give them more problems than they can handle. So, the Mainland launching sorties from the Pacific side is something that Taiwan has not shown to handle.

[astralis]

The PLA says, yes I know says, deterrence is a form of war fighting. From their standpoint if the US does not intervene, that is them defeating the US.

regarding the carrier specifically, frankly not sure how much that matters. It’s merely symbolism. PLAN wouldn’t put that carrier there if there was even the slightest hint of US intervention. And if Taiwan was fighting alone, that carrier would not only be a very very hard target for Taiwan to crack, it would also be low down on the priority pole.

[Officer of Engineers]

I wasn't just thinking about the carrier but also sub and surface launch missiles.

[Native]

I would have to imagine that the US Navy knew where that carrier was and if it were in position to actually launch real attacks it wouldn't be long for this world.

As a former SUPPLOT watch stander, I would be beyond surprised if we didn't know where it was from the moment it left port.

[rj1]

Always kind of figured the overly simple version of this war if it ever went hot is Chinese blockade of Taiwan (or in Cuban Missile Crisis terms a "quarantine"), which means we should be seeing a lot of submarines and ballistic missiles wanting to sink surface ships from both sides.

[Monash]

Always kind of figured the overly simple version of this war if it ever went hot is Chinese blockade of Taiwan (or in Cuban Missile Crisis terms a "quarantine"), which means we should be seeing a lot of submarines and ballistic missiles wanting to sink surface ships from both sides.

The problem for China though is that if they launch a blockage before assembling the units and sea lift assets needed for the invasion then they are telegraphing their intentions weeks if not months prior to the invasion because it takes time to concentrate all the various assets at the embarkation points even if all the planning has been completed well in advance. And of course concentrating the landing forces prior to establishing the embargo does the same thing.

As I believe I noted before on other chat groups if not this one, China can attack Taiwan any time it wants on short notice, perhaps as short as only 30 minutes or so. What it can't do is invade Taiwan on short notice.

[DOR]

The problem for China though is that if they launch a blockage before assembling the units and sea lift assets needed for the invasion then they are telegraphing their intentions weeks if not months prior to the invasion because it takes time to concentrate all the various assets at the embarkation points even if all the planning has been completed well in advance. And of course concentrating the landing forces prior to establishing the embargo does the same thing.

As I've believe I noted before on other chat groups if not this one, China can attack Taiwan any time it wants on short notice, perhaps as short as only 30 minutes or so. What it can't do is invade Taiwan on short notice.

Perhaps signaling intentions is the first step?
They might believe that openly preparing for an invasion would trigger surrender negotiations.

[DOR]

PLA Discusses Integration of Strategic Systems, Capabilities

"Since the March 2023 National People’s Congress, PLA subject matter experts have begun discussing an emerging concept related to maximizing efficiencies in economics and defense. On March 8, in a speech at the First Session of the 14th National People’s Congress, PRC leader Xi Jinping called for the “consolidation and enhancement of integrated national strategic systems and capabilities” (巩固提高一体化国家战略体系和能力). According to Xi, better coordination between economic development and defense requirements is essential to realizing the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and the PLA’s transformation into a “world-class military.”

Xi Jinping had briefly referred to the “consolidation and enhancement of integrated national strategic systems and capabilities” in his report to the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in October 2022. PLA subject matter experts also had been advocating for the idea before the Party Congress. Xi’s speech in March shone a spotlight on the concept, demanding the PLA’s attention and implementation.

Since Xi’s speech, PLA institutions and experts have begun penning articles affirming and discussing the task of improving China’s integration of national strategic systems and capabilities. For example, an article by a PLA National Defense University (NDU) research center dedicated to studying Xi Jinping Thought asserted that China’s national security is in a “high-risk period” as countries around the world are uniting various instruments of national power in pursuit of their own strategic aims. To “win the initiative in military competition,” the NDU research center argued that China must muster and integrate all its national resources, including a “system of military forces” supported by and in support of the national economy.

An article by an author affiliated with the Armed Forces Political Work Research Institute of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences described the concept of “consolidation and enhancement of integrated national strategic systems and capabilities” as essential to future competition in priority areas for strategic capability development. According to the author, “emerging fields,” including “maritime, space, cyber, biology, and new energy,” have “enormous power and potential” and must be strengthened to improve national strategic systems and capabilities. The author claimed that “getting a grasp” on these fields is key to success in future competition.

Based on multiple articles discussing Xi’s March 8 speech, the concept of “consolidation and enhancement of integrated national strategic systems and capabilities” is clearly related to the PLA’s concept of “military-civil fusion” (军民融合). The degree of continuity between these two concepts remains to be seen."
https://www.cna.org/our-media/newsletters/pla-update

[Monash]

Perhaps signaling intentions is the first step?
They might believe that openly preparing for an invasion would trigger surrender negotiations.

First thing it would trigger is an alarm call by Taiwan to the the US, the UN and every pro-western nation on the planet followed by a general mobilization on Taiwan's part. Only if the invasion actually went ahead and looked like succeeding would Taiwan consider surrender and even then only if the US and its Pacific Allies failed to break China's air and naval blockade.