Speaker Pelosi Visits Taiwan

[tbm3fan]

TBM,

I think a reality check is in order. 60 HARPOONs against a flotilla of 300 ships isn't decisive.

True, but it does add one more variable to the CCP risk assessment. They still do not have the amphibious capability to pull off a landing that everyone could see coming before the troops board the ships. Concerning Ukraine they cannot be sure what the U.S. will do vis a vis coming to Taiwan's aid. Another variable to ponder. The CCP is slowly getting pissed off by the Quad alliance which is really more economic than military. In the end the only way they are going to get Taiwan is to take it. They can try coercion, they can marshall all their leverage, but in the end the Taiwanese want nothing to do with them. I can't see a split existence where the Taiwanese maintain their personal freedoms, looking at you Hong Kong. So best to arm Taiwan defensively with enough weapons to complicate the risk assessment and make the cost high enough to them in the military and economic spheres. After that cross your fingers because pride and face are jokers in the deck...

[DOR]

Are Cross-Strait Relations Dead?
By: John S. Van Oudenaren
September 9, 2022 The Jamestown Foundation China Brief

https://jamestown.org/program/are-cr...elations-dead/


Kuomintang (KMT) Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia led a delegation to China in August, which occurred in the immediate aftermath of the extensive live-fire exercises that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted around Taiwan following U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit.

The trip by the number two figure in Taiwan’s main opposition party elicited a torrent of domestic criticism, including from KMT politicians. The timing of the visit was doubly poor for the KMT as it not only coincided with China’s escalation of military pressure but also came as the campaign season for Taiwan’s November 26 local elections kicked off.