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  • #16
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    You're joking, right? Reasonable people are bullies who offer you a choice between a beating (war) or handing over your lunch money (trade).
    Spoken like a true military officer, rather than a politician or diplomat.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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    • #17
      It’s time for our reasonable people to sit down with their reasonable people (yes, they exist, on both sides), and lay it on the line: You do what you need to do for your own domestic political purposes, and so will we. But, at the end of the day, we have common interests that we need to discuss.

      See you after your Party Congress?
      reasonable people on their side?

      the PRC has been consistently escalating the number and the type of aircraft they fly into the ADIZ of Taiwan and Japan, use Coast Guard and naval units to muscle out the Philippines and the Vietnamese, dredge sand and overfish around Matsu to intimidate the locals.

      this isn't quite as bad as the folks telling the Ukrainians they should sit down with Putin and trade land for peace, but it's pretty freakin' close.

      Xi has made it clear that the only common interest he has with the US is that he feels the PLA is not ready to fight the US for Taiwan...yet. even his fellow Party elites think he's an uncouth thug.
      Last edited by astralis; 08 Aug 22,, 03:10.
      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by DOR View Post
        Spoken like a true military officer, rather than a politician or diplomat.
        The founder of the CCP - "War is politics with bloodshed and politics is war without bloodshed."

        I'm keeping my powder dry.


        Chimo

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        • #19
          Originally posted by astralis View Post

          reasonable people on their side?

          the PRC has been consistently escalating the number and the type of aircraft they fly into the ADIZ of Taiwan and Japan, use Coast Guard and naval units to muscle out the Philippines and the Vietnamese, dredge sand and overfish around Matsu to intimidate the locals.

          this isn't quite as bad as the folks telling the Ukrainians they should sit down with Putin and trade land for peace, but it's pretty freakin' close.

          Xi has made it clear that the only common interest he has with the US is that he feels the PLA is not ready to fight the US for Taiwan...yet. even his fellow Party elites think he's an uncouth thug.
          I would LOVE to see some 'reasonable' people in China handling foreign relations. Living in a nation that has had to deal with years and years of Chinese tantrums I would like to know where these people are. Maybe they are in the ministry of agriculture or dealing with water resources. They damned sure don't have much influence over military & foreign policies....unless this IS the 'reasonable' version.

          Currently Australia is experiencing a temporary respite. Once China decides our new government isn't going to do as it is told normal service will resume.
          sigpic

          Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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          • #20
            Having met, and professionally interacted with PRC officials over a long period of time, I can assure anyone who’s interested that there is no shortage of reasonable people in the CCP or the Foreign Ministry. Reading the rantings of Cult 45 will give you as good an assessment of America’s Center-Right politics as will using periodic provocations and responses to provocations to understand elite politics within the CCP.
            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!

            Comment


            • #21
              Having met, and professionally interacted with PRC officials over a long period of time, I can assure anyone who’s interested that there is no shortage of reasonable people in the CCP or the Foreign Ministry. Reading the rantings of Cult 45 will give you as good an assessment of America’s Center-Right politics as will using periodic provocations and responses to provocations to understand elite politics within the CCP.
              having met, and professionally interacted with PRC officials over a long period of time, I can also assure you that the "reasonable people" have no voice whatsoever in the Party of Xi Jinping.

              Li Keqiang has been repeatedly censored -- do you think any of the dweebs in the Foreign Ministry have any influence on Xi? there's a reason why all those "reasonable" diplomats are going full Wolf Warrior nowadays.

              the closest thing you'll get to reasonable people who actually have any influence on Xi are, ironically, the upper echelons of the CMC telling him that the PLA can't beat the Taiwanese, the Americans, the Japanese, and possibly the Australians and the UK in a fight....yet.
              Last edited by astralis; 08 Aug 22,, 18:09.
              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

              Comment


              • #22
                Thanks for confirming what I wrote: the top MAC generals are also senior party guys . . .
                Trust me?
                I'm an economist!

                Comment


                • #23
                  indeed. but note I said "the closest thing you'll get to reasonable". the only common interest is no war for the next few years, and the PLA figures they don't need to communicate much with the Americans to do that (note they cut off military comms and engagement to "punish" the Americans).

                  as for any other possible common interest, they don't give a good goddamn including the environment, fentanyl, trade, so forth.
                  There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by astralis View Post
                    indeed. but note I said "the closest thing you'll get to reasonable". the only common interest is no war for the next few years, and the PLA figures they don't need to communicate much with the Americans to do that (note they cut off military comms and engagement to "punish" the Americans).

                    as for any other possible common interest, they don't give a good goddamn including the environment, fentanyl, trade, so forth.
                    Are you taking their statement about cutting off talks at face value?
                    I didn’t expect that!

                    Come on, this isn’t the first time we’ve stopped talking, not by a long shot.
                    Trust me?
                    I'm an economist!

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Are you taking their statement about cutting off talks at face value?
                      I didn’t expect that!

                      Come on, this isn’t the first time we’ve stopped talking, not by a long shot.
                      military to military engagement is probably off the table for the rest of the year at minimum.

                      as for the Pentagon-CMC "red phone", that is a ludicrous joke that's only used for show.

                      also note beyond the matter of cutting off talks, PRC hasn't fulfilled its side of the trade deal. so...I doubt there will be any space for reasonable people.

                      let alone on the Taiwan question, where Xi's made it clear that he's quite willing to burn the rest of the relationship on those grounds.
                      Last edited by astralis; 10 Aug 22,, 19:46.
                      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Still not seeing it.
                        We’ll resume talking when the heat dies down, when something else comes up, or when they want something. More chances for something unpleasant to happen (unintended conflict), but not the end of the world.
                        Trust me?
                        I'm an economist!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          More US lawmakers visit Taiwan 12 days after Pelosi trip
                          TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — A delegation of American lawmakers arrived in Taiwan on Sunday, just 12 days after a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that prompted China to launch days of threatening military drills around the self-governing island that Beijing says must come under its control.

                          The five-member delegation, led by Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, will meet President Tsai Ing-wen and other officials, as well as members of the private sector, to discuss shared interests including reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and investments in semiconductors.

                          China responded to Pelosi’s Aug. 2 visit by sending missiles, warships and warplanes into the seas and skies around Taiwan for several days afterward. The Chinese government objects to Taiwan having any official contact with foreign governments, particularly with a high-ranking congressional leader like Pelosi.

                          A Taiwanese broadcaster showed video of a U.S. government plane landing about 7 p.m. Sunday at Songshan Airport in Taipei, the Taiwanese capital. Four members of the delegation were on the plane.

                          ​​​​​​​Markey met with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol earlier Sunday in South Korea before arriving in Taiwan on a separate flight at Taoyuan International Airport, which also serves Taipei. Markey, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Subcommittee, and members of the delegation will reaffirm the United States’ support for Taiwan.

                          The other members of the delegation are Republican Rep. Aumua Amata Coleman Radewagen, a delegate from American Samoa, and Democratic House members John Garamendi and Alan Lowenthal from California and Don Beyer from Virginia.

                          Chinese warplanes have continued crossing the midpoint of the Taiwan Strait on a daily basis even after the conclusion of the military exercises last Wednesday, with at least 10 doing so on Sunday, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said.

                          The 10 fighter jets were among 22 Chinese military aircraft and six naval ships detected in the area around Taiwan by 5 p.m. on Sunday, the ministry said on its Twitter account.

                          A senior White House official on Asia policy said late last week that China had used Pelosi’s visit as a pretext to launch an intensified pressure campaign against Taiwan, jeopardizing peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region.

                          “China has overreacted, and its actions continue to be provocative, destabilizing, and unprecedented,” Kurt Campbell, a deputy assistant to President Joe Biden, said on a call with reporters.

                          “It has sought to disregard the centerline between the P.R.C. and Taiwan, which has been respected by both sides for more than 60 years as a stabilizing feature,” he said, using the acronym for the country’s full name, the People’s Republic of China.

                          China accuses the U.S. of encouraging independence forces in Taiwan through its sale of military equipment to the island and engaging with its officials. The U.S. says it does not support independence for Taiwan but that its differences with China should be resolved by peaceful means.

                          China’s ruling Communist Party has long said that it favors Taiwan joining China peacefully but that it will not rule out force if necessary. The two split in 1949 during a civil war in which the Communists took control of China and the losing Nationalists retreated to the island of Taiwan.

                          Campbell, speaking on Friday, said the U.S. would send warships and planes through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks and is developing a roadmap for trade talks with Taiwan that he said the U.S. intends to announce in the coming days.

                          ___

                          Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

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                          • #28
                            Here's what we think might be the way it plays out.


                            Xi Jinping decides to test the waters with his colleagues, to see who would stand up to him if he decided to start a war over Taiwan. He calls an expanded Politburo Standing Committee (the PBSC, 7 members) and the Military Affairs Commission (the MAC, another 6).


                            Xi: “Can you do it?”

                            PBSC:
                            “Yessir, yessir, three bags full sir!”

                            MAC: “It depends on what the American do.”

                            PBSC:
                            “Oh. You wanted our opinion? Huh, that's new.”



                            Xi: “We can't afford to fail. If we start this, and don't finish it very fast, the popular reaction may be more than we are prepared for.”

                            MAC: “We've seen what happened in the Middle East when the Americans decided to get rough, and in Ukraine, when they decided to just supply the defenders with a bucket load of weapons.”

                            Xi: “Yes, and the last time you guys fought a real battle, you got your heads handed to you, didn't you? I'm looking at you Vietnam veterans now...”

                            MAC: “Our considered opinion is that the time is not right. Let's think about it again in 20 years.”


                            PBSC:
                            “Do you still want our opinion? No? Oh, good!”

                            XI: “This meeting is over.”
                            Trust me?
                            I'm an economist!

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Following her visit the US announced that it has approved a $1.1 billion sale of weapons to Taiwan naturally pissing China off and threats of counter measures. The radar system and those 60 anti-ship Harpoons will make it tough on China if she feels amphibious.


                              The US has agreed to sell $1.1bn (955m) in weaponry to Taiwan, provoking anger from China.

                              The proposed deal includes a radar system to track incoming strikes and anti-ship and anti-air missiles.

                              It comes after US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi last month became the most senior US official in 25 years to visit Taipei.

                              The Chinese embassy in Washington called on the US to revoke the deal or face "counter-measures".

                              Spokesman Liu Pengyu said the deal "severely jeopardises" relations between Washington and Beijing.

                              "China will resolutely take legitimate and necessary counter-measures in light of the development of the situation," he added.

                              Beijing sees the self-ruled island as a part of its territory and insists it should be unified with the mainland, by force if necessary.

                              It launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan last month, following the American delegation's visit.

                              The US arms sale agreed on Friday still needs to be voted on by the strongly pro-Taiwan US Congress.

                              The package includes a $655m radar warning system and $355m for 60 Harpoon missiles, which are capable of sinking ships.

                              It includes $85.6m for Sidewinder surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles, according to the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency.

                              A spokesperson for the Department of State said the deal was "essential for Taiwan's security", and called on Beijing "to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue".

                              "These proposed sales are routine cases to support Taiwan's continuing efforts to modernise its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability," the spokesperson said.

                              https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62775544

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                              • #30
                                TBM,

                                I think a reality check is in order. 60 HARPOONs against a flotilla of 300 ships isn't decisive.
                                Chimo

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