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  • The Second Korean War and China's dilemma...

    Ooopps..I meant the "Second" korean war.. (Damn how come I can't edit the thread's title???)

    China is in one helluva politcal dilemma.

    Kim Jong Il’s nuke test have basically stirred up a pot that China would rather just leave alone.

    The way I understand it (which is not to say it’s true), China likes the status quo and any tipping of the scale one way or another will cause concerns in China.

    Already there are debates in Japan about the possibility of acquiring nukes and we all know it’s not going to take years for them to achieve their goal. It’ll more likely be, “Hey we are going to acquire nukes”. Followed months if not weeks later by ”OK…we got them now.”

    DPRK detonating a nuke (even a primitive one) has now moved the possibility of an armed conflict from the theoretical to a possibility.

    If a war should erupt in the Korean peninsula…

    …If NK should win the second Korean war and the whole peninsula comes under NK rule, Japan will of course beef up their military up to the point of acquiring nukes. China, of course, does not want that under any circumstances.

    ….If SK should win a second Korean war and the whole peninsula comes under SK rule, China will lose it's buffer state and even then, there is no guarantee that Japan will not arm themselves with nukes. Believe me, there is no love lost between Japan and EITHER Koreas, even though SK and Japan are supposedly "allies". The Korean’s reason for hating the Japanese, historically, goes about as deep as China’s.

    My question to those of you with REAL (as opposed to the Internet warriors) expertise in the matter, militarily or politically is:

    If there is a second Korean War, what position will China and Russia take?

    What will be the likely outcome of such a war?

    Final question is(and this is not realistic but I’m just curious about it) If there is a war and China/US/Russia stays out of it, who will: North or South?

  • #2
    The Chinese would collapse the NK long before that happens and it doesn't take that much effort. Hell, even South Korea could do it. Just stop shipping rice north.

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    • #3
      That's true, Colonel..

      But do you think China or SK would welcome the refugee problem that scenario is likely to produce?

      Personally, I think both China and SK is in "how do we solve this problem without putting our asses in a sling" mode rather than rolling up their sleeves and actually doing something about it.

      I think China AND SK can come together and solve this problem but I really doubt they will as it'll cause them some hardship.
      They're thinking short term rather than long term.
      At least IMHO...

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      • #4
        From some of the reports I have read about how the NK people are treated by Kimmy...i think that letting them all starve to death would be pretty dam humane ending to there miserable lives.

        Prisoner camps are forced to work brutal hard labour producing food for the common folk, areas where there is a prisoner camp will have food to eat,where as areas where there is no prisoner camp, will starve, and migrate to areas where prisoner camps are located.

        And all it can take to get you landed into one of these prisoner camps, is dusting a picture of kimmy the wrong way!!!
        Last edited by Canmoore; 21 Oct 06,, 21:52.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
          Ooopps..I meant the "Second" korean war.. (Damn how come I can't edit the thread's title???)
          It's all done with smoke and mirrors ;)
          TwentyFiveFortyFive

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          • #6
            Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
            I think China AND SK can come together and solve this problem but I really doubt they will as it'll cause them some hardship.
            They're thinking short term rather than long term.
            At least IMHO...
            South Korea could end all this without a single shot fired and without any bloodshed. Just begin unification tals. In the end, only South Korea can solve this with or without military action.

            Sooner or later, South and North Koreas must unite and it will be on South Korean terms but also on South Korea's dollar and that's what they don't want. South Korea doesn't want this. They want North Korea to rise up economically on its own before unification. Well, that's not going to happen with Kim around.

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            • #7
              IIRC, NK has far greater natural industrial resources than SK. So when they do unite, could be a good thing for SK, in the long run. Is what used to be West Germany still hurting from reunification? Of course, NK is about an order of magnitude worse off than East Germany was, but I wonder how bad it would really be.

              If SK did start serious reunification efforts, how would that come about? Seems like 'ol Kim would not like it all. Would it be an impetus for a coup?
              I enjoy being wrong too much to change my mind.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                The Chinese would collapse the NK long before that happens and it doesn't take that much effort. Hell, even South Korea could do it. Just stop shipping rice north.
                The first time i agree with Offier

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                • #9
                  Already there are debates in Japan about the possibility of acquiring nukes
                  America is still there ,the Japanese will never have any nukes or it will be out of US's control .Mr Bush and any other prisedent of America will not let that happen .If Janpan has nukes , it will be more dangrous than any other countries to US.

                  what position will China and Russia take
                  If war is stared by NK , China and Russia can do nothing ,Mr Jong will be sentenced to death in a International court. ( I think Mr Bush is dreaming of this )

                  What will be the likely outcome of such a war?
                  Nk dissappeared .

                  If there is a war and China/US/Russia stays out of it, who will: North or South?
                  Without nukes , SK will win
                  With nukes , the planet will dissappear and we will find another one to live on ( it's too late )

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    South Korea could end all this without a single shot fired and without any bloodshed. Just begin unification tals. In the end, only South Korea can solve this with or without military action.

                    Sooner or later, South and North Koreas must unite and it will be on South Korean terms but also on South Korea's dollar and that's what they don't want. South Korea doesn't want this. They want North Korea to rise up economically on its own before unification. Well, that's not going to happen with Kim around.
                    I'm not convinced North Korea would enter unification talks with South Korea on South Korean terms. Perhaps if the Kim dynasty wasn't in control, but it's certainly in control.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by wangrui961 View Post
                      If Janpan has nukes , it will be more dangrous than any other countries to US.
                      Because Japan will then threaten the US with nukes? or because of instability in the region if Japan builds nukes (other countries then start building nukes etc etc). Just curious

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                        Because Japan will then threaten the US with nukes? or because of instability in the region if Japan builds nukes (other countries then start building nukes etc etc). Just curious
                        Because US want to control Janpan for ever ,In fact ,Janpan is a special state of US. With nukes , Japanese will not after US ,they can do anything they want .Why should they listen to US if they have nukes ? For Mr bush is cool?

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ArmchairGeneral View Post
                          If SK did start serious reunification efforts, how would that come about? Seems like 'ol Kim would not like it all. Would it be an impetus for a coup?
                          You kidding me? Set him up in France with a yacht and a boat load of blondes and he's happy as a clam.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                            I'm not convinced North Korea would enter unification talks with South Korea on South Korean terms. Perhaps if the Kim dynasty wasn't in control, but it's certainly in control.
                            There is a need to buy him and his supporters off and it won't be cheap but it's a hell of alot cheaper than war.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              South Korea could end all this without a single shot fired and without any bloodshed. Just begin unification tals. In the end, only South Korea can solve this with or without military action.

                              Sooner or later, South and North Koreas must unite and it will be on South Korean terms but also on South Korea's dollar and that's what they don't want. South Korea doesn't want this. They want North Korea to rise up economically on its own before unification. Well, that's not going to happen with Kim around.
                              Exactly, my point, Colonel.

                              I believe unification IS possible but obviously SK doesn't want to go through the hardship this will bring. Therefore, validating my point the SK's are thinking short term rather than long term.
                              Hey, as long as they can download complete episodes of any TV program to their cellphones and bad mouth the US in the process, they're as happy as a clam.

                              Originally posted by wangrui961 View Post
                              The first time i agree with Offier
                              This just means this was the first time you were right.

                              Originally posted by wangrui961 View Post
                              America is still there ,the Japanese will never have any nukes or it will be out of US's control .Mr Bush and any other prisedent of America will not let that happen .If Janpan has nukes , it will be more dangrous than any other countries to US.
                              America can bring great presure to Japan to NOT acquire nukes but that doesn't mean we'll succeed. If Japan feels real pressure, they just might go against our wishes. Besides, I don't think America giving it's consent to Japan to acquire nukes is out of the realms of possiblity, just to put more pressure on the Chinese to actually do something about the problem rather than pay lip service.

                              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              You kidding me? Set him up in France with a yacht and a boat load of blondes and he's happy as a clam....

                              ...There is a need to buy him and his supporters off and it won't be cheap but it's a hell of alot cheaper than war.

                              This would be the best case scenario but I put this possiblity at practically zero. There is a saying that absolute power corrupts absolutely.

                              I really don't think Kim will be happy with a couple of yachts and a boatful of the best stacked and loosests blondes on earth!
                              That is nothing to what he has now. He has the power to decided who lives, who dies, who gets food, who doesn't..etc in the palm of his hands right now.

                              He will not go quitely and even if he does kick and scream every step of the way, I believe it will be relatively easy to put this character out of power if SK and China just wants it to happen bad enough.

                              Problem is they're trying to do it as cheap and as painlessly as possible for them.

                              In simple terms, they're trying to catch a pig in a mudpit, without trying to get their clothes dirty.

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