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A New Pakistan Policy: Containment

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  • #16
    A few thoughts.

    Originally posted by zraver View Post

    1. You legitimize the civilian leadership by giving them gains the military could not. And since India's giving, she gets to choose what to give...
    Here you're are assuming that the civilian leadership in Pakistan has a different outlook towards India than the military does, just like the ISI and the civilian leadership differ on giving support to the Taliban perhaps. Well they don't. When it comes to India we have no reason to believe that the Pakistani government is any more interested in "normalizing relations" with India or stopping cross-border terrorism than the Pakistani Army does. They are far more interested in how much they and the US can squeeze India in compromising on kashmir).
    The last time an Indian Prime minister really tried to reach out (one of the much maligned "hindu nationalists" no less) was in 1999. As it turns out while the Indian and Pakistani PMs were hugging in Lahore, the PA was occupying the frozen heights of Kargil. Fool me once...and all that.

    2. Huge intelligence scoop for India... I mean seriously, assuming the proper controls* are in place granting verified j/k families with members on both sodes of the LOC "j/k visas" doesn't cost India a whole lot. But since to establish familial relationship everyone on both sides of the LOC seeking a "J/K Visa" get a dna swabbed as part of the visas process. That way when there is an attack, perhaps militant blood trails will give you intel other than hey some one is bleeding here. Plusonce enough people are swabbed you can build the regions family tree and then announce a simple policy based on long settled military law- militants/spies who get caught out of uniform, and who can't prove a familial connection get to do the Tyburn Jig... after sentencing by a competent tribunal
    First of all granting "J&K visas" would mean that the government is legitimizing the claim that J&K is not an integral part of India and should be treated differently and would be violating the Indian constitution in the process. That is a non-starter. Your second suggestion is a little amusing.
    According to you militants who will use the newly opened border to cross over will be easier to identify once they have blown themselves up or shot several people and then got shot themselves, since we took DNA swabs at the border. This doesn't change the fact that they already accomplished their purpose of killing Indians a lot more easily than they would have if the border was sealed. That we could identify them easily provides no succor to the families of those killed. If we catch them before (out of uniform as you say), since many of the militants are from the PoK/Kashmir region, it wouldn't be too difficult for them to prove a familial connection.

    3. Deny Pakistan easy access through modern anti-forgery technologies mandated by the J/K deal plus the dna swabbing. That way, maybe the guy who came through 6 months claiming to be from J/K turns up in Delhi after another attack, but this time his papers say Baloch or Punjabi instead of Pashtun... But both sets have anti-forging technology built into them by the government of Pakistan and are not fakes.... ISI with egg on its face.
    Again, we don't trust the Pakistani government. Who do you think they will side with, us or their own intelligence agency? They (or the ISI) are more likely to provide the terrorists with whatever papers they need themselves. What need for forging?

    4. When a person talks and demonstrates a desire for peace, few will notice if he is also sharpening his knife...
    The pakistanis are past masters at that as the Kargil example shows.

    Real peace overtures take the spotlight off arms purchases which is good for domestic Indian politics at least.
    Not much of an issue in India. The defense budget is still less than 3% of the GDP even with the recent big item purchases. No government is likely to lose an election for spending too much on defense just as yet.

    PS: Another thing I don't get is how all this is supposed to help India. If I get it right, this whole India "peace overtures" to pakistan business is so important to the US because they believe that this will pacify the PA and help them move troops to the eastern border to fight the taliban. I can only laugh at that. The PA is not fighting some sections of the taliban because they don't want to fight their buddies, not because they don't have the troops for that.

    As for Indo-Pak peace, some of the worst PA sponsored terrorist attacks in India have happened when relations between the two countries were peaceful. Of course the US doesn't believe they were sponsored by the pakistani army or state. It doesn't really matter what the US believes.
    Last edited by Firestorm; 12 Nov 11,, 23:17.