Can Pakistan Be Neutered?

[Michael C]

If I am wrong, and the national security threat facing the US originates in Pakistan, then can someone please tell me how many Pakistanis were on the 9/11 flights?

The answer is zero. We are in Afghanistan to stop Al Qaeda, nothing more, nothing less. The threat to India may well be Pakistan, I don't dispute that. To an Indian, it seems very much like Pakistan is the threat. To America, it is globalized, Islamic extremism. In that case, Pakistan is not the core problem, it is a manifestation of the disease.

The solution to globalized, islamic extremism is not military.

[Cactus]

The war in Afghanistan is one where we are treating-very, very badly, the symptom. The disease is just to the east. What would it take to TREAT the disease? Can the Pakistani military, most of all it's nuclear weapons, be neutralized or destroyed without them launching a nuclear reprisal on India? Would we have to use our own strategic assets to do so or can it be done conventionally? I welcome all speculation on this issue as I'm now convinced that we've little choice but to recognize facts for what they plainly are WRT to Pakistan.

S-2:
Can I ask a more fundamental question? Why should Americans own up this problem? Sure, over history Americans contributed to the problem sometimes - but they did not create the problem, nor do they drive the problem. Let me tell you what it would take to solve this threat: Time. As events unfold over time, Americans can - if they choose to - contribute positively to the people who should be solving this problem, and thus offset some of their negative contribution. Right now, America's problem are those terrorists; find them, neutralize them, move on... there will be a time for reckoning who sabotaged the efforts to do something more. Now is not it.

[1980s]

Cant believe this my first post here...

One possible scenario would be to have Pakistan as we know it reduced to Pakistan proper i.e. Punjab and Sindh with Baluchistan ceding from the center and FATA and NWFP merged with Afghanistan. In the ensuing chaos their nuclear facilities could be secured and the core materials flown out. That would replace Pakistan with more manageable smaller states in place of the intractable Pakistan the international community currently has to deal with. How this will be brought about is anyone's guess.

On the question of re-drawing borders i think your approach is too simplistic and detached from the multi-ethnic reality that is Afghanistan and Pakistan's NWFP. Neither of which are exclusively Pashtun or Pashto-speaking. I think the idea of depriving Pakistan of its NWFP and incorporating it into Afghanistan would be to the permanent disadvantage of all of Afghanistan's non-Pashtun inhabitants. In which case, the map of Afghanistan should be re-drawn too so that the Tajik and other communities are not overwhelmed from such a serious demographic change.

In any case, i dont believe that Pashtuns of Afghanistan and Pakistan can be any more successfully reunited together than could Kurds of Iraq and Turkey or North and South Koreans could. There are still unresolved issues between former East and West Germany and Germany happens to be among the most developed and advanced nations in the World. There is little chance then that FATA or NWFP could be realistically integrated into Afghanistan when that country doesn't even have a credible government capable of providing any of the basic administrative necessities a functioning government should. I mean even FATA has more infrastructure and development than parts of Afghanistan does according to the the series of David Rohde articles about his detention in Waziristan he wrote for the New York Times recently.

I think also in the desperation to face-off of any threat towards the existence of Pakistan as it exists now it would not surprise me if they attempt a strike on India with a nuclear weapon. First by threatening to and then by actually doing it if they sense that the end is near for them.

The billions of US$ in aid that Pakistan receives should be stopped indefinitely and that money added towards what is already being spent on building a strong Afghan army and infrastructure projects. I think Afghanistan would (or should) have less problem too with that money being "micro-managed" by the US embassy there. Pakistan should just be allowed to cave-in on itself, because that's what seems to be happening to it naturally. The US and IMF are all that seem to be keeping it alive barely.

I have a question tho. Pakistan is said to have missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Are these missiles already armed and deployed somewhere ready to be launched? (presumably against India?). I think just allowing Pakistan to collapse by itself is the best option, but i can see why skeptics argue that would be the worst case scenario because of the risks associated with some extremist group or another getting access to its nukes. But then again, if the US decides to take the war into FATA and Baluchestan the Pakistanis could end up using those nukes themselves anyway.

[Cactus]

I have a question tho. Pakistan is said to have missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Are these missiles already armed and deployed somewhere ready to be launched? (presumably against India?). I think just allowing Pakistan to collapse by itself is the best option, but i can see why skeptics argue that would be the worst case scenario because of the risks associated with some extremist group or another getting access to its nukes. But then again, if the US decides to take the war into FATA and Baluchestan the Pakistanis could end up using those nukes themselves anyway.

The Paks are supposedly keeping them in component form at various locations. Somehow I am skeptical of that, given their very precarious situation. If I were them, I would be tempted to keep at least a battery's worth in assembled condition.

[n21]

If I am wrong, and the national security threat facing the US originates in Pakistan, then can someone please tell me how many Pakistanis were on the 9/11 flights?

The answer is zero. We are in Afghanistan to stop Al Qaeda, nothing more, nothing less. The threat to India may well be Pakistan, I don't dispute that. To an Indian, it seems very much like Pakistan is the threat. To America, it is globalized, Islamic extremism. In that case, Pakistan is not the core problem, it is a manifestation of the disease.

The solution to globalized, islamic extremism is not military.

You would be interested to know that 2/3 of the AQ suspects in Guantanomo Bay are Pakistanis. 9/11 planner is a Pakistani.
Also do take a note of most of the terror related arrests post 9/11 has had a Pakistani link or Pakistani origin people involved.

However for some reason AQ is still referred to a "Arab" org!

Technically Pakistanis were "Indian Muslims". However so far there is no Indian Muslims involvement with AQ(bar 1 nutcase who got influenced by a bunch of British Pakistanis!)

Hence a question needs to be asked. Why such a "huge" contribution from Pakistanis only?

[Tronic]

Nope, Parihaka is bang on target in his analysis. Of course to a modern Indian all of it sounds quaint and ridiculous, but your views are not the end-all and be-all of the matter. Pakistan was not born just because one man wanted it, nor does it exist simply out of inertia. Pari describes their PoV exactly, but if you want to hear it straight from the horse's mouth:



Gentlemen, PLEASE don't start ripping this piece of revisionist history into pieces here. We all know that it is horse-puckey, but do use it to understand how the other side thinks.

I've come across that view before, no doubt. But it is one I had heard from chest beating fanboys. Most well versed Muslims I talked to know that Muslim rule in India ended well before the British arrived. But I guess that what you posted proves me wrong; I overestimated their intellect.

[Tronic]

To America, it is globalized, Islamic extremism. In that case, Pakistan is not the core problem, it is a manifestation of the disease

I disagree. Pakistan manifests the disease. I agree globalized Islamic extremism is a problem, the core of which, is in Pakistan.

[Parihaka]

If I am wrong, and the national security threat facing the US originates in Pakistan, then can someone please tell me how many Pakistanis were on the 9/11 flights?

How about the 7 July London tube bombings? Or the various other attempts thwarted by the British Police?

How about the multiple terror strikes against Mumbai and the rest of India

How about the multiple terror strikes against the Afghans? Or was your experience there something different?

[Parihaka]

The billions of US$ in aid that Pakistan receives should be stopped indefinitely and that money added towards what is already being spent on building a strong Afghan army and infrastructure projects. I think Afghanistan would (or should) have less problem too with that money being "micro-managed" by the US embassy there. Pakistan should just be allowed to cave-in on itself, because that's what seems to be happening to it naturally. The US and IMF are all that seem to be keeping it alive barely.

I'll second that

[Parihaka]

I've come across that view before, no doubt. But it is one I had heard from chest beating fanboys. Most well versed Muslims I talked to know that Muslim rule in India ended well before the British arrived. But I guess that what you posted proves me wrong; I overestimated their intellect.

Not as much as you overestimate their education.

[tinymarae]

If I am wrong, and the national security threat facing the US originates in Pakistan, then can someone please tell me how many Pakistanis were on the 9/11 flights?

Isn't bankrolling the operation enough involvement?

On October 6, 2001, a senior-level U.S. government official told CNN that U.S. investigators had discovered Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh (Sheik Syed), using the alias "Mustafa Muhammad Ahmad" had sent about $100,000 from the United Arab Emirates to Mohammed Atta. "Investigators said Atta then distributed the funds to conspirators in Florida in the weeks before the deadliest acts of terrorism on U.S. soil that destroyed the World Trade Center, heavily damaged the Pentagon and left thousands dead. In addition, sources have said Atta sent thousands of dollars—believed to be excess funds from the operation—back to Saeed in the United Arab Emirates in the days before September 11. CNN later confirmed this.[13]

Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Suspected hijack bankroller freed by India in '99

Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh was one of the militants released by India in exchange for hostages after the hijacking of Indian airliner by Pakistan based militant organization Harkat-ul-Mujahideen.


He was also responsible for murder of Daniel Pearl and has not been executed yet because of his connections with the ISI.

Sheikh Omar Saeed was arrested by Pakistani police on February 12, 2002, in Lahore, in conjunction with the Pearl kidnapping,[4] and was sentenced to death on July 15, 2002[5] for killing Pearl. His judicial appeal has not yet been heard. The delay has been ascribed to his confirmed links with Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence.[6]

His wikipedia page makes an absorbing read.

[Officer of Engineers]

The Paks are supposedly keeping them in component form at various locations. Somehow I am skeptical of that, given their very precarious situation. If I were them, I would be tempted to keep at least a battery's worth in assembled condition.

Cactus,

If the Paks are Chinese trained ... and they are ..., then keeping a readied battery invites a 1st strike (a read K. Sundarji already addressed).