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  • Al Qaeda Weakened?

    Whether AQ is indeed weakened depends very much on who you talk to. This UN official is optmistic and explains why.

    Al-Qaeda Hobbled by Improved Anti-Terror, Intelligence Efforts
    Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Al-Qaeda has failed to carry out major attacks in recent months because of improved counterterrorism efforts, better intelligence and a reduced ability to recruit terrorists, a senior United Nations Security Council official said.

    “Al-Qaeda and its affiliates have really not been able to mount the level and the quantity of attacks that they would hope to in recent months” as counterterrorism activities become more sophisticated and groups wane in their appeal and recruitment efforts, said Richard Barrett, coordinator of the UN’s al-Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Team.

    Intelligence-gathering and targeting operations have improved substantially in the eight years since the Sept. 11 attacks, leading to the capture or assassination of numerous key leaders of al-Qaeda and its related networks in Southeast Asia, Iraq and Pakistan, Barrett said in an address yesterday at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

    World leaders are stepping up efforts to enforce sanctions against financiers of terrorist networks and to undermine the message of al-Qaeda through “political actions and propaganda” aimed at countering anti-American sentiment in Muslim-majority countries, he said.

    Al-Qaeda leaders “haven’t ‘‘been able to persuade people that this is the right way,’’ he said, referring to the terrorist network’s propaganda campaigns. ‘‘I don’t think it’s working anymore.”

    Obama’s Impact
    Barrett said al-Qaeda sees President Barack Obama as a threat because he represents a mixed-race, multicultural West and has extended a hand of engagement to the Muslim world.

    The concern terrorist networks “have with Obama being elected is they can’t attract people” who don’t see the U.S. as quite the same enemy as before, he said.

    Pakistan and Yemen remain two countries where there’s significant reason for concern, said Barrett, a former British intelligence official and a member of the UN Secretary- General’s Counterterrorism Implementation Task Force.

    Terrorist networks are building strength in Pakistan, where Barrett said some Pakistani military and intelligence officials retain links with extremist Muslim groups.

    At the same time, terrorists who once sought haven in Afghanistan have found it harder to operate under pressure from U.S. and NATO forces and have migrated to neighboring Pakistan.

    “Al-Qaeda has made the calculation that if they’re to put their chips on the table,” they are betting on the Pakistani Taliban, not their Afghan cousins, in part because the U.S. is unlikely to invade or occupy parts of Pakistan, he said.

    Yemen, the poorest Arab nation and the ancestral homeland of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, has become a haven for al- Qaeda members from Saudi Arabia, which began a crackdown on the terrorist organization after a series of attacks in 2004.

    Distracted Government
    The government of Yemen is distracted by a rebellion in the north and a separatist movement in the south. Also, insurgent activity leaks over the border from Somalia.

    With Yemen also plagued by 35 percent unemployment and a faltering economy, “everybody is most worried about the situation” in the country, Barrett said. ....

  • #2
    This question is very much related to the on going White House deliberations about US strategy in Afghanistan. Click into the link to read more.

    Success Against al-Qaeda Cited
    Infiltration of Network Is a Factor as Administration Debates Afghanistan Policy

    30 Sept [WashingtonPost] U.S. and international intelligence officials say that improved recruitment of spies inside the al-Qaeda network, along with increased use of targeted airstrikes and enhanced assistance from cooperative governments, has significantly reduced the terrorist organization's effectiveness.

    A U.S. counterterrorism official said that the combined advances have led to the deaths of more than a dozen senior figures in al-Qaeda and allied groups in Pakistan and elsewhere over the past year, most of them in 2009. Officials described Osama bin Laden and his main lieutenants as isolated and unable to coordinate high-profile attacks.

    Recent claims of significant success against al-Qaeda have become part of White House deliberations about U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, centering on a request by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top American and NATO commander there, for an expanded counterinsurgency campaign that will require more U.S. troops. Discussions began in earnest Tuesday as senior national security and military officials met with President Obama.

    Those within the administration who have suggested limiting large-scale U.S. ground combat in Afghanistan, including Vice President Biden, have pointed to an improved counterterrorism effort as evidence that Obama's principal objective -- destroying al-Qaeda -- can be achieved without an expanded troop presence.

    The most important new weapon in the Western arsenal is said to be the recruitment of spies inside al-Qaeda and affiliated organizations, a long-sought objective. "Human sources have begun to produce results," Richard Barrett, head of the United Nations' al-Qaeda and Taliban monitoring group, said Tuesday. Barrett is the former chief of Britain's overseas counterterrorism operations.

    Current and former senior U.S. officials, who spoke about intelligence matters on the condition of anonymity, confirmed what one former CIA official called "our penetration of al-Qaeda." A senior administration official said that success had come "because of, first of all, very good intelligence capabilities . . . to locate and identify individuals who are part of the al-Qaeda organization."

    Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair referred obliquely in an interview with reporters earlier this month to the use of spies, saying that "the primary way" that U.S. intelligence determines which terrorist organizations pose direct threats is "to penetrate them and learn whether they're talking about making attacks against the United States." ....

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    • #3
      Although al Qaeda's 'operational capacity' has indeed been weakened, this source thinks they recovers fast.

      Al Qaeda recovers fast from "loss of operational capacity" described by Obama
      7 Oct [Debka] US president Barack Obama praised the efforts of the organizations represented by the National Counterterrorism Center which he visited Tuesday, Oct. 6, crediting them with al Qaeda's "lost operational capacity " and disappearing "legitimacy and credibility." He vowed to continue pressing the battle to cripple the network around the world and noted "real progress in our core mission - to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda and other extremist networks around the world."

      Administration officials added that 11 of the 20 most wanted figures were killed or captured in the Afghan-Pakistani border area over the last year and some foreign fighters, like Uzbeks, Chechens and Yemenis, had begun going home. ....

      The top command did indeed suffer serious damage but has reduced it by speedily filling key gaps with fresh faces imported from other arenas like Chechnya, Iraq and the Caucasus. ...

      "A Chechen known only as "Abu Zaar" - Father of the Pearl. He serves under the new Commander-in-Chief of all al Qaeda forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Abu Hafez, whose real name is Mustafa Abu Yazid. Abu Hafez is a member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, who served as al Qaeda's "finance minister" for the last 10 years. The very fact that a senior bureaucrat was given a key combat command attests to a shortage of experienced, professional field commanders.

      Nonetheless, DEBKA-Net-Weekly military sources report, his al Qaeda superiors were surprised to find in Abu Hafez an efficient combat tactician as well as administrator; so too were US commanders in Afghanistan."

      The US president's claim that al Qaeda had lost "legitimacy and credibility" is confuted by the spreading deployment of al Qaeda networks across three continents: They are operational mode in North Africa, West Europe, Somalia and other parts of the Horn of Africa, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the Gaza Strip.

      The fact that some foreign fighters, like Uzbeks, Chechens and Yemenis "had begun going home," as reported by President Obama, is less the result of allied attacks than a deep controversy dividing radical Islamist ideologues over the level of brutality permissible in terrorist attacks.

      Above all, some of the fighters who returned home, including groups of Yemenis and North Africans, challenge exceptionally brutal large-scale attacks, especially in cases when heavy Muslim casualties are caused.

      This does not mean they have retired. Just the reverse: They have opted to put their shoulders behind the expanding terrorist fronts in their own countries - closer to home.

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      • #4
        They won't quit until they are totally isolated and the public is fed up with them, and they get the urge to write their memoirs. They will one day claim victory, defining victory as having increased world respect for Islam and bringing about changes in policy toward ME countries among western nations, and they will be partly right. Meanwhile the most expensive manhunt in history goes on.
        To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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        • #5
          Ministry of Defence | Defence News | Military Operations | Welsh Guards - Taliban weakened by our efforts

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