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Into the Valley of Death

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  • Chogy Reply

    "So political machinations or leadership failings have limited the Pak army effectiveness? Or is it that the Pak army itself doesn't have the inherent capability to do the job?"

    All of the above?

    WRT to the Pakistani Army, I'm not sure how you define "...do[ing]the job...". I know that they've felt woefully un-equipped and untrained for a series of COIN operations and looked to us for a bevy of needs related to both. I don't think we've the full picture of operations in Swat, Buner, Bajaur, S. Waziristan or, now, Orakzai. Anything other than from the director, ISPR Maj. Gen Abbas has been rare.

    We DO know that they found it unavoidable to dodge their errant bomb-strike the other day. I don't think that, however, is the only moment of error. I can say I've communication with one pashtun woman who's claimed the FATAville residents feel squeezed between the insurgents and the army. I don't know how true but that's food for thought as to even why she might suggest such.

    We can and will leave Afghanistan. We'll do so fairly shortly and, IMHO, largely bereft of most of our original objectives. If not "mission failure" certainly not any full-blown "mission success" either and I'm hardly sanguine about Afghanistan's prospects. That said, Pakistan will for some time be dealing with FATA in all it's myriad forms and problems. I'm not generally very hopeful there either-of solving their issues or necessarily really even wishing so.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

    Comment


    • Originally posted by S-2 View Post
      WRT to the Pakistani Army, I'm not sure how you define "...do[ing]the job...". I know that they've felt woefully un-equipped and untrained for a series of COIN operations and looked to us for a bevy of needs related to both. I don't think we've the full picture of operations in Swat, Buner, Bajaur, S. Waziristan or, now, Orakzai. Anything other than from the director, ISPR Maj. Gen Abbas has been rare.
      Maybe the PA views itself as very effective at doing its job, which is opposing the InA on the eastern border.
      America's money tap is the only reason they have kept at it for so long. I would speculate that your average career minded PA officer would avoid FATA like the plague.
      Just my Rs 0.2 but I dont think they are really interested in COIN and in any case ISI would be monitoring operations in order to ensure they dont bump off anyone important.
      For Gallifrey! For Victory! For the end of time itself!!

      Comment


      • bolo121 Reply

        "...in any case ISI would be monitoring operations in order to ensure they dont bump off anyone important."

        Nat'l pre-disposition aside:)), your view isn't without some merit. There's been, again, recent suggestions that the hoopla surrounding Baradar, et al isn't necessarily all it seems or that America might like it to be. The stall WRT operations in N. Warziristan might be indicative of such. They have their excuses, of course, but the eternal question is whether they are justified by our perspective or just more obfuscation.

        At this point, I know that I care less. Surge or otherwise, I'm counting days till we're gone and don't put much value into any strategic relationship with Pakistan. I also don't see much value in further investment in Afghanistan. If it needs stabilization, let its neighbors like Pakistan, India, China, Iran, and Russia contest/cooperate for the dubious privilege. It's not our cross-roads its energy won't be servicing my needs. If our energy companies see value there, let them pay the premiums that come without our direct cover to invest. I think they'll find the cost high and the competition for the privilege of developing such only to face down-the-road nationalization quite steep.

        Frankly I expect a civil (and proxified) war again. All I really hope for is that we keep SOF and our air force available for periodic sanitization.
        "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
        "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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        • What can i say, that particular three letter acronym brings out the worst in any Indian.

          Cant say i disagree with you on America leaving though. You tried and for a variety of reasons it didnt work out, so its better to wash hands of it and get out. A few UCAV and SF raids every now and then whenever anyone gets uppity.
          From India's point of view of course it is a disaster, all those armed to the teeth jehadis will beat their chests saying that they defeated the great satan and will seek fresh employment. InA will be very busy in the next few years and the next mumbai type atrocity will eventually happen.
          For Gallifrey! For Victory! For the end of time itself!!

          Comment


          • bolo121 Reply

            "From India's point of view of course it is a disaster... InA will be very busy in the next few years and the next mumbai type atrocity will eventually happen."

            Well I've no crystal ball and my thoughts wouldn't be the first time (by FAR) that I've been wrong on matters large or small so we'll see how things shake out with America and Afghanistan.

            That said, nothing I see stops India from a full-fledged diplomatic/civil assistance effort in Afghanistan. Feel free to go all-in on my behalf. Feel free, if we haven't utterly dismantled Iran, to invite them to the party as well.

            If nothing else, that should serve as a nice distractor to all those feverish irhabists looking for something to do. OTOH, LeT and JuI haven't exactly gone away in all the time we've been there so I can't say our presence has gone far to alleviate concerns on that score in any case.
            "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
            "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

            Comment


            • why not a solution in the middle?

              tell the korengal valley people-- okay, we are withdrawing as per your request. in return for not harboring the taliban or AQ, we will leave you alone.

              if you do, we'll level your entire damn valley.

              in this case, isolated will cut both ways. we might not be able to bomb all of taliban afghanistan to hell and gone but we sure can for one valley.
              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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              • astralis Reply

                "...if you do, we'll level your entire damn valley."

                I'm surprised at you Mr. Diplomat Astralis. You know me-I'm all in favor of dire kinetic threats. But YOU, sir!?:))

                Have you checked with McChrystal's Department of Humane Consideration? Have THEY checked, if so, with Karzai's Ministry of Dissembling Intent?
                "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                Comment


                • I'm surprised at you Mr. Diplomat Astralis. You know me-I'm all in favor of dire kinetic threats. But YOU, sir!?
                  hey, i'm an AF guy now :)

                  Have you checked with McChrystal's Department of Humane Consideration? Have THEY checked, if so, with Karzai's Ministry of Dissembling Intent?
                  well, the main point of "humane consideration" is not so much done for its own sake but because it's supposed to impact us politically. we can either do this or go genghis khan. we can't do genghis for all afghanistan-- it's too big, too numerous, and the american people (let alone anyone else) won't stand for it-- but if Korengal Valley is this isolated and small, then i see no problem with offering them the ultimate carrot-or-stick.

                  ie we can control, to a much better extent, any repercussions.
                  There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                  Comment


                  • i suspect what will end up happening is something similar to what i suggested-- not actually threatening them with levelling the valley, but threatening to subject known groups harboring AQ/taliban in the valley to drone strikes.

                    having read the reports coming from there, i can't say i'd shed a tear either way.
                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                    Comment


                    • Reaction to this news

                      This was a major topic of discussion this morning at my current location. Is not being recieved well for a a whole bunch of reasons. Some purely emotional based on the blood sweat tears and ammo expended to date in the Korengal. Others however based on the stone cold logic that its a major ingress egress route which is going to be much less hazardus to traverse once we pull back to "focus of population centers".

                      There are 2 guns at FOB providing fires into the korengal that have to date in excess of 7000 rounds fired in support of missions in that AO. The guys that manned these guns are are taking this news quite badly.

                      Regards

                      Arty
                      "Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter-accusations".- Motto of the Gun Crew who have just done something incredibly stupid!!!!

                      Comment


                      • Arty Engineer Reply

                        "Others however based on the stone cold logic that its a major ingress egress route which is going to be much less hazardus to traverse once we pull back to "focus of population centers".

                        A.E., I used to take this as an article of faith until I read the below comment-

                        "...The story of Colonel Chris Kolenda, of Omaha, Nebraska, is instructive. Kolenda, a West Point graduate with the sharp-eyed, comforting manner of a family physician, commanded the 1st Squadron of the 91st Cavalry from May 2007 to July 2008 in northeastern Afghanistan, on the border with Pakistan. When Kolenda’s 800-soldier battalion arrived, armed violence was endemic. Coalition headquarters in Kabul blamed a Pakistan-based insurgency. 'The conventional wisdom was wrong,' Kolenda told me. 'Almost all of the insurgents were locals who fought for a whole variety of reasons: they were disgusted with ISAF, as well as the government in Kabul; their fathers had fought the Soviets and now the sons were fighting the new foreigners.'

                        Then there was the 'psychodrama of interethnic and clan frictions,' abetted by the fractured mountainous landscape. The area was populated by Nuristanis, Kohistanis, and Pashtuns, all of whom harbored disdain for the Gujars, migrant farm workers from over the border, who, in their eyes, were 'not real Afghans.' (So much for the argument that there is no Afghan national identity.) The Nuristanis, in turn, were divided into the Kata, Kom, Kushtowz, and Wai clans. The Kom were split into hostile and well-armed groups whose current divisions stemmed from the war against the Soviets in the 1980s, when some of the Kom backed the radical forces of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, known as the HIG, or Hezb-i-Islami-Gulbuddin, and other Kom sub-clans were loyal to the moderate National Islamic Front of Afghanistan. The Kata, meanwhile, were generally loyal to the Lashkar-e-Taiba (“Army of the Righteous”), which carried out major attacks against India from bases in Pakistan. The Pashtuns themselves were divided in some cases, on account of blood feuds, into five elements."

                        Man Versus Afghanistan-ATLANTIC April Robert Kaplan

                        Personally? I wouldn't for a second call Colonel Kolenda wrong. He was there and thoroughly invested in the fight. The intelligence he derived was a product by which his men lived or died. That said, I still don't think he's entirely correct either-

                        Taliban Commander Qari Zia Rahman Denies Reports Of His Death-Long War Journal April 14, 2010

                        Rahman has been operating in the Konar-Bajaur reaches for as long as I've been following this war closely. Mullah F.M. (Faizullah) has been rumored to be in his company. I've little doubt that when pressure is too great on one side he abscombs to the other-and vice versa.

                        I think Pakistan still serves as an R&R locale for mid and senior leaders, a command and control locus around Quetta for the Kandahari taliban and that specialists and specialist weapons ingress via there. OTOH, I also believe Afghanistan is largely weaponized these days and self-sustaining from a variety of sources to include the Afghan Army and police. To that end, I believe these taliban units are financed via local crime and taxes (smuggling/racketeering/protection). In Konar, that crime often boils down to the long-established lumber smuggling. In turn, THAT boils down further into internecine tribal disputes over lumber turf and cutting/milling rights.
                        "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                        "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                          hey, i'm an AF guy now :)
                          Attaboy. I like the cut o' your NEW jib, son.

                          FIREPOWER: is there ANYthing it can't do?

                          (Okay, WABbits, it's a rhetorical question. Calm down.)

                          Comment


                          • Bluesman Reply

                            "FIREPOWER: is there ANYthing it can't do?

                            (Okay, WABbits, it's a rhetorical question. Calm down.)"


                            "Firepower means never having to say you're sorry... to the dead.":))
                            "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                            "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Bluesman View Post
                              Attaboy. I like the cut o' your NEW jib, son.

                              FIREPOWER: is there ANYthing it can't do?

                              (Okay, WABbits, it's a rhetorical question. Calm down.)
                              I was thinking this ^^ while trying to understand the impossible dynamics of this conflict.

                              Before, the losers of a war had to arise from hot ashes and rebuild. Today, it is apparently impossible to prosecute a war to victory within the current ROE framework. Given that, why are we even bothering?

                              Comment


                              • chogy,

                                Today, it is apparently impossible to prosecute a war to victory within the current ROE framework. Given that, why are we even bothering?
                                i don't see a problem with applying the ROE framework to most parts of afghanistan-- this is something we did in iraq, after all.

                                what i'm against is applying it uniformly to -every- part of afghanistan. there's obviously a few parts which will -always- be against a foreign/government presence, and the best we can do is to isolate and threaten with devastation if they come out of their hidey-hole.
                                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                                Comment

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