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  • Originally posted by zraver View Post

    NATO has the most potential force on force combat power in the world. In reality's, its the US for global missions with a small sprinkling of EU member states and a few tasty chunks of UK force thrown into the mix. A lot of NATO's power is hypothetical and land locked (polish and Turkish armies). A lot is designed for regional defense like DE submarines etc. Tank armies and diesel boats are not weapons to win COIN campaigns. They are designed to make it too expensive to attack, not enforce your will on another. China being right next door has the ability to use a land locked army to impose its will. The Taliban knows what China did to the Uighurs is doable to them so they walk soft around the Asian Dragon lest they be disappeared.
    Taliban will keep the pot boiling in Xianjiang to gain leverage over China to extract concessions from them.

    These concessions they will use to diversify influence away from Pakistan.

    Who will be upset because they want a share of the mineral wealth that lies untapped and could not be exploited due to unrest.

    For China to enforce anything risks them getting embroiled in a country with poor prospects of subjugating.

    You guys have fought around the world, China does not have this experience and their COIN experience from what i can see in Xianjiang is light.

    China will be ok so long as they keep the payments coming. In theory.

    Its going to be interesting to see how the three rogue states get on

    Mullah Baradar spent 8 years in a Pak jail. His family was held along with families of other Taliban commanders so as to control them.

    They do not harbour warm feelings towards Pakistan. But there are two other factions in the Taliban to balance this.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 18 Aug 21,, 19:28.

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    • Originally posted by kato View Post
      Also, apparently about the entire Afghan Air Force has by now landed in Uzbekistan.
      There is no evidence from satellites of a fight. No burnt out tanks, howitzers or APC's. No preparations to lay siege to cities.

      There seems to have been some fighting at the start but not much evidence of damage or losses incurred. What and whom were they firing at ?

      The Taliban did not win, the ANA did not lose. They just scooted across the border.

      And the interesting bit, they had to cross Taliban controlled territory who waved them on.

      Some people are saying there was loss of morale but that takes time. Things do not collapse so quickly.

      So this was a fixed match. Between Ghani & the Taliban.

      The Americans got screwed in the process (ergo Blinken blames the Afghan govt. Whenever Americans blame some one it means they got screwed)

      The Paks are worried the Talban did not need their help to take over the country.

      Not what we had in mind when the words Afghan controlled, owned and led were said
      Last edited by Double Edge; 18 Aug 21,, 20:08.

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      • Originally posted by kato View Post
        The German government is publicly accusing the US of actively obstructing the German evacuation effort right now. There's 60 paratroopers on the ground now who forced open a second access gate manned by German troops in order to actually be able to evacuate people because the Americans are holding anyone without a Green Card back at gunpoint. We already have the press pulling little kids out of the evacuees to get statements how they were "so scared when 'they' opened fire".

        By hearsay the relationship between British forces on the ground (2 Para) and the US forces is a whole lot worse though. Shouting matches over comms by commanders, British observation posts checking whether the Americans are about to flee the country and so on.
        Without american control of that airport none of us would be getting our people out. They are having a hell of a time doing air traffic control there.

        Slots filling up and planes having to leave under capacity so others can come in.

        India managed to evacuate embassy staff and any one else left there on two C17's.
        Last edited by Double Edge; 18 Aug 21,, 19:44.

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        • Originally posted by zraver View Post

          1. You don't need super sonic capability against the Taliban.

          2. Easier to fly

          3. Better low altitude performance

          4. Loiter time

          5. Improvised and rough field capability

          6. Overall cost

          7. Defense jobs in Nevada home of then Senate majority leader Harry Reid.
          In 2009, the Super Tucano was offered in a U.S. Air Force competition for 100 counterinsurgency aircraft.[108] On 12 April 2010, Brazil signed an agreement that opened negotiations for the acquisition of 200 Super Tucanos by the U.S.[109] On 16 November 2011, the AT-6 was excluded from the LAS program, effectively selecting the Super Tucano. According to GAO: "the Air Force concluded that HBDC had not adequately corrected deficiencies in its proposal… that multiple deficiencies and significant weaknesses found in HBDC’s proposal make it technically unacceptable and results in unacceptable mission capability risk". Hawker Beechcraft's protest against its exclusion was dismissed.[110][111] However, the contract award was disputed and a stop-work was issued in January 2012.[112]

          For this procurement, the avionics are supplied by Elbit Systems of America. Sierra Nevada, the US-based prime contractor will be building the Super Tucano in Jacksonville, Florida.[113] The 81st Fighter Squadron, based at Moody Air Force Base, was reactivated on 15 January 2015 and received the A-29 aircraft and provided training to pilots and maintainers from the Afghan Air Force.[114] Purchased for the Afghan Air Force, all 20 aircraft are planned for turn over to the Afghans in batches by December 2018.[115] Until all the A-29s are turned over to the Afghan Air Force, they will not have a fixed-wing close air support aircraft, but have attack helicopter options
          Check that backyard...

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          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post

            Without american control of that airport none of us would be getting our people out. They are having a hell of a time doing air traffic control there.

            India managed to evacuate embassy staff and any one else left there on two C17's.
            True but things aren't so straightforward on the ground there. Look at this:

            Escorted by Taliban: India's midnight evacuation from Afghanistan

            Outside the main iron gate of the Indian embassy in Kabul, a group of Taliban fighters waited -- armed with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.

            Inside the compound were 150 Indian diplomats and nationals -- growing increasingly nervous as they watched news of the Taliban tightening their grip on the capital, which they took a day earlier without a fight.

            Their position was a precarious one.

            ...

            India in turn, strongly backed the government that took over when the Taliban were ousted, earning them hatred and enmity from the hardline Islamist group.

            But the Taliban fighters outside the Indian embassy weren't there to extract revenge, but rather to escort them to Kabul airport, where a military aircraft was on standby to evacuate them after New Delhi decided to shut its mission.

            "When we were evacuating the second group... we faced the Taliban, who refused to allow us to exit the green zone," said an official who left with Monday's group.

            "We then decided to contact the Taliban and ask them to escort our convoy out."

            Unfamiliar checkpoints had been set up and thousands of people displaced by the war were along the road.

            At intervals, the Taliban fighters accompanying the Indian convoy jumped out of their own vehicles and aimed their guns at the crowds, forcing them to step back.

            The escort departed once the convoy reached the airport, where American soldiers had taken up positions and were coordinating flights.
            This cannot work without some sort of coordination between the Americans and the Taliban which will probably continue till all the foreign citizens who want to leave are evacuated. Other countries must have used similar deals with the Taliban like India did. I doubt the Afghans who want to flee will be so lucky though.
            Last edited by Firestorm; 18 Aug 21,, 20:44.

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            • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
              True but things aren't so straightforward on the ground there.
              Indeed

              https://twitter.com/billroggio/statu...24972670472196

              Why did the americans let go of Bagram ? i always though they would hold on to it.

              This cannot work without some sort of coordination between the Americans and the Taliban which will probably continue till all the foreign citizens who want to leave are evacuated. Other countries must have used similar deals with the Taliban like India did. I doubt the Afghans who want to flee will be so lucky though.
              Agreed

              Comment


              • Originally posted by kato View Post
                If you want America Bashing, it's fairly simple to just look at Kabul right now.

                The German government is publicly accusing the US of actively obstructing the German evacuation effort right now. There's 60 paratroopers on the ground now who forced open a second access gate manned by German troops in order to actually be able to evacuate people because the Americans are holding anyone without a Green Card back at gunpoint. We already have the press pulling little kids out of the evacuees to get statements how they were "so scared when 'they' opened fire".

                By hearsay the relationship between British forces on the ground (2 Para) and the US forces is a whole lot worse though. Shouting matches over comms by commanders, British observation posts checking whether the Americans are about to flee the country and so on.
                Hearsay of British Paras and contractors moving in Kabul and getting every Westerner and specific Afghans at designated RV points.
                Also hearsay of LW and RAAF planes leaving Kabul almost empty.
                This crap becomes tragicomic.FFS,bloody imbecile in WH ordered Bagram AB abandoned.Now everyone is at the mercy of Taliban.At the very least we could have had a land corridor to a border.
                A few mortar rounds would make 1842 look like joke.

                And even if they won't fire,it's bonus points for the Talibans,who look like competent and reasonable people,while NATO looks like bumbling imbeciles.

                I'd fire a dozen rounds and 1 hour later I'd make an apology:"twas rogue elements".Just for the optics of the mess.
                Also a pretext for rounding and shooting folks on my list,while pretending to keep law and order.
                Those who know don't speak
                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                  I'd fire a dozen rounds and 1 hour later I'd make an apology:"twas rogue elements".Just for the optics of the mess.
                  Taliban are desperate for recognition and don't want to be isolated.

                  We will see how well they can enforce this discipline among their troops

                  So far their plan has resulted in a peaceful transition.

                  Any change means hostages and more concessions. Why would they do this if they don't want to be isolated.

                  Americans agreed to the terms (why else give up Bagram) but its obvious some agreements were not kept.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 18 Aug 21,, 21:58.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                    Also hearsay of LW and RAAF planes leaving Kabul almost empty.
                    Oh yeah, that first flight.

                    Which was empty precisely because the US forces were turning back people at the access point shooting at them, and because there's not exactly much time out of the 30 minutes the US allotted the German aircraft until it had to take off again if you're first unloading troops and their gear there.
                    The first Dutch flight was empty for the same reason btw. Americans threatening Dutch people at the gates.

                    I've yet to see anything solid to the rumours of 2Para roaming Kabul btw. The only thing i've seen acknowledged was that they escorted embassy staff during their relocation to the airport on sunday night.

                    Btw, I'm hearing Albania is going to have to "temporarily" house a couple hundred Afghans that the US "evacuated" because apparently their 6000 guys in Kabul were unable to process any visa.

                    Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                    And even if they won't fire,it's bonus points for the Talibans,who look like competent and reasonable people,while NATO looks like bumbling imbeciles.
                    The Taliban are even holding press conferences in Qatar. During the last one only one question-and-answer was provided translated to English. Basically "what about the local nationals who worked for the allied forces, translators and such?" - "oh, of course we want those to stay in Afghanistan and use their talents for their home country".

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by zraver View Post

                      NATO has the most potential force on force combat power in the world. In reality's, its the US for global missions with a small sprinkling of EU member states and a few tasty chunks of UK force thrown into the mix. A lot of NATO's power is hypothetical and land locked (polish and Turkish armies). A lot is designed for regional defense like DE submarines etc. Tank armies and diesel boats are not weapons to win COIN campaigns. They are designed to make it too expensive to attack, not enforce your will on another. China being right next door has the ability to use a land locked army to impose its will. The Taliban knows what China did to the Uighurs is doable to them so they walk soft around the Asian Dragon lest they be disappeared.
                      https://ecfr.eu/article/after-the-wi...n-afghanistan/

                      although Beijing is pragmatic about the power realities in Afghanistan, it has always been uncomfortable with the Taliban’s ideological agenda. China wants to see them hemmed in by compromises with other political forces in the country, not resurgent after a military victory. The Chinese government fears the inspirational effect of their success in Afghanistan for militancy across the region, including the Pakistani Taliban.

                      Beijing is also concerned about the risks of entanglement in Afghanistan, which is seen as a strategic trap that has diminished the other great powers that have involved themselves too deeply. There are endless references to the “graveyard of empires” in Chinese analysis. So, while they see the necessity of taking on a more active political role to deal with the fallout of what is now underway, there is considerable wariness about being sucked in.
                      Taliban has the upper hand now and will drive a hard bargain with China and pretty much every one else..

                      Wonder if their role model is Pablo Escobar ?
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 18 Aug 21,, 22:13.

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                      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post

                        Taliban has the upper hand now and will drive a hard bargain with China and pretty much every one else..
                        They don't need to. What the Chinese are interested in is their mineral wealth - copper Lithium etc. And they have very deep pockets. Just what the new Taliban regime needs. There is news of the US freezing the Afghan Central Bank reserves which are held in overseas accounts. They total about $9.5 billion. That is chickenfeed for China. I'm sure they will be happy to loan the Taliban that money at very generous rates in return for access to their mines plus protection.

                        The Taliban are sitting on $1 trillion worth of minerals the world desperately needs

                        ^^The Chinese are salivating at this. The Saudis have already shown that if you are rich in natural resources the world doesn't give a shit how many women you oppress, how many journalists you kill and how much islamic radicalism you support. If the Talibanis have even an ounce of brains they can leverage this to their benefit.
                        Last edited by Firestorm; 19 Aug 21,, 01:24.

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                        • Originally posted by kato View Post
                          I've yet to see anything solid to the rumours of 2Para roaming Kabul btw. The only thing i've seen acknowledged was that they escorted embassy staff during their relocation to the airport on sunday night.
                          There may be some truth to those rumours.. Mark Milley said something to that affect. I'm also hearing some sources state that it could be the SAS and SBS going into Kabul.
                          Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                          -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

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                          • A large part of the Afghan Air Force landed in Termez, Uzbekistan.


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                            11 PC-12NG, 6 A-29s and 4 or 5 Cessna 208s.

                            If the rest of the A-29s are still in Afghanistan, the Taliban may have just got itself a deadly air-force.
                            Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                            -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

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                            • Originally posted by Tronic View Post
                              A large part of the Afghan Air Force landed in Termez, Uzbekistan.


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                              11 PC-12NG, 6 A-29s and 4 or 5 Cessna 208s.

                              If the rest of the A-29s are still in Afghanistan, the Taliban may have just got itself a deadly air-force.
                              Read the article I posted above. An air force will be of limited use to the Taliban.

                              The relevant parts are here:

                              The Taliban would face a long list of obstacles if it sought to operate the equipment itself, using the remaining airplanes and helicopters to form the basis of an ad-hoc air force.

                              First, the Taliban aren’t trained pilots capable of safely flying the aircraft, using its sensors and loading and deploying weapons, Kelly said.

                              “”They may actually be able to get it airborne,” he said, “but they’d probably be more dangerous to their own wellbeing than they would [be] to people on the ground.”

                              Eventually, the Taliban could find qualified pilots, “but as far as a threat to the region, I don’t think it’s something that’s a credible threat that we are that overly concerned about,” Kelly added.

                              An even larger hurdle for the Taliban would be the cost, expertise and logistics associated with maintaining the aircraft, an expensive proposition that involves servicing aircraft before and after flight, conducting repairs and buying spare parts.

                              However, it’s not an impossible problem to solve, Bowman said.

                              “I’m not na´ve enough to not be able to envision a scenario where maybe — maybe — they could find pilots, that maybe the former Afghan air force pilots would be coerced to come over to their side,” Bowman said. “And it’s not inconceivable that foreign powers who aren’t aligned with the United States could help.”

                              But Aboulafia noted use of the aircraft’s weapons — either on the citizens of Afghanistan or against other nations in the region — could ultimately undermine the Taliban’s goal of maintaining control of the country.

                              “The more they use conventional military equipment, the more they make themselves a target. If they were to make trouble, it would be doing what they did before 9/11: harboring terror groups,” he said. “There’s obviously not a lot of organized internal resistance in the country. They don’t seem eager to pick a fight with countries near them, and it wouldn’t go well if they did.”
                              Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

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                              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

                                Read the article I posted above. An air force will be of limited use to the Taliban.

                                The relevant parts are here:
                                They could get the pilots and get around the expertise problem by utilizing Pakistani advisors. There is a resistance fermenting in the Panjshir valley, as well as civilian protests in Jalalabad, Kunar and other areas against the Taliban. I can see the Taliban trying to utilize the aircraft if they feel the need to blitz the Panjshir valley; especially if Pakistan decides they want the Northern Alliance eliminated.

                                As for the money problem.. the Taliban just got themselves a whole country with mass tax revenues. This is a much more urbanized Afghanistan they took over then the one they lost in 2001 (and with double the population).
                                Last edited by Tronic; 19 Aug 21,, 04:41.
                                Cow is the only animal that not only inhales oxygen, but also exhales it.
                                -Rekha Arya, Former Minister of Animal Husbandry

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