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  • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    Where was the Mongol ?
    You're kidding me. Did you actually think that a few 100 SOF backed by airpower could actually take Afghanistan? We've allied with Donstum for crying outloud. Mongol was done by our Afghan allies. Wew've just turned a blind eye to it.

    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    The Soviets won tactically. Not strategically. Same story here.

    Does it matter how many times you beat them only for them to return after you leave.

    We're all in the same boat and loathing a repeat of the 1996-2001 period.

    I want to believe those twenty years amounted to something.
    That's the freaking point. There is nothing to win.

    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    Funny how both our predictions ended up wrong on this one

    You said civil war and i argued the govt would hold so long as it got funding from abroad.

    There is no civil war at least not yet and the govt folded like a house of cards.
    I see a repeat of history. The Mujahadeen fractured. So will the Taliban. Sooner or later, one warlord will want more than what he has.

    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    Don't have to keep it. But you want to leave the place different than how you found it.

    When the Viets left Cambodia the Khmer Rouge never returned.

    Unless you isolated the battlefield it was never going to happen. It drags on for decades.

    I'm sure the generals knew what to do. Getting the permission to do it was another question.

    What lessons are the Chinese drawing from this experience ? First two gulf wars taught them you needed high tech and speed.

    In this theater they will learn that there is a limit to how much tech a battlefield can absorb. And even then the results aren't guaranteed.
    Every Empire in history left Aghanistan. Not drove out but left. It's just not worth it to garrison. Afghanistan is only vital if you need a landbridge to occupy either Iran or India. Once you lose the need to occupy either, you also lose the need to garrison Afghanistan.

    Once our egos get over the hurt, Afghanistan would be forgotten just as every other Empire had forgotten about it.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 20 Dec 21,, 22:10.
    Chimo

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      You're kidding me. Did you actually think that a few 100 SOF backed by airpower could actually take Afghanistan? We've allied with Donstum for crying outloud. Mongol was done by our Afghan allies. Wew've just turned a blind eye to it.
      This was in the initial stages. Later on when the TB were reconstituting and hitting back there was no Mongol.

      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      That's the freaking point. There is nothing to win.
      What were the objectives to enter Afghanistan ? ensure it does not and never becomes a base for terrorists to operate from.

      That is what winning means.

      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      I see a repeat of history. The Mujahadeen fractured. So will the Taliban. Sooner or later, one warlord will want more than what he has.
      I hear Indian officers saying the same thing. There are different factions. The dependence on Pakistan is less since they don't need sanctuary, their families are no longer held hostage.

      There is churn and the situation remains fluid until a stable power configuration emerges.

      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Every Empire in history left Aghanistan. Not drove out but left. It's just not worth it to garrison. Afghanistan is only vital if you need a landbridge to occupy either Iran or India. Once you lose the need to occupy either, you also lose the need to garrison Afghanistan.

      Once our egos get over the hurt, Afghanistan would be forgotten just as every other Empire had forgotten about it.
      No need for a garrison if the ancien regime was disbanded. Such an opportunity presented itself shortly after the TB were disposed.

      TB wanted to formally surrender.

      This was brought to Karzai's notice but inexplicably he fails to inform his old college buddy Khalilzad (!)

      Or that is what i learnt from Lyse Doucet's podcast of the region.

      Could never figure out where she came from going by her accent. She's Canadian. She knows Afghanistan very well.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Dec 21,, 13:55.

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      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        This was in the initial stages. Later on when the TB were reconstituting and hitting back there was no Mongol.
        We've lost our bloodlust.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        What were the objectives to enter Afghanistan ? ensure it does not and never becomes a base for terrorists to operate from.
        Mission achieved. The TB will no longer tolerate answering to foreigners.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        There is churn and the situation remains fluid until a stable power configuration emerges.
        The last time we had a stable Afghanistan was under Timur

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Could never figure out where she came from going by her accent. She's Canadian. She knows Afghanistan very well.
        Anyone who tells you they understand Afghanistan is selling you snake oil. Aghans don't understand Afghanistan. That's why they're tearing themselves apart.

        Chimo

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          Did you actually think that a few 100 SOF backed by airpower could actually take Afghanistan? We've allied with Donstum for crying outloud. Mongol was done by our Afghan allies. Wew've just turned a blind eye to it.
          https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1413492/

          I am advising a man on how to best employ light infantry and horse cavalry in the attack against Taliban T-55s, mortars, artillery, personnel carriers, and machine guns – a tactic which I think became outdated with the invention of the Gatling gun. [The mujahideen] have done this every day we have been on the ground. They have attacked with 10 rounds of ammunition per man, with snipers having less than 100 rounds – little water and less food. I have observed a PK gunner who walked 10-plus miles to get to the fight, who was proud to show me his artificial leg from the knee down.

          We have witnessed the horse cavalry bounding overwatch from spur to spur to attack Taliban strongpoints – the last several kilometers under mortar, artillery, and sniper fire. There is little medical care if injured, only a donkey ride to the aid station, which is a dirt hut. I think [the mujahideen] are doing very well with what they have.

          We could not do what we are doing without the close air support – everywhere I go the civilians and mujahideen soldiers are always telling me they are glad the U.S.A. has come. They all speak of their hopes for a better Afghanistan once the Taliban are gone.
          https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/...rst-49-days-4/

          They send 19 you send 12. This lot came back. All of them
          Last edited by Double Edge; 26 Dec 21,, 00:15.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            Every Empire in history left Aghanistan. Not drove out but left. It's just not worth it to garrison. Afghanistan is only vital if you need a landbridge to occupy either Iran or India. Once you lose the need to occupy either, you also lose the need to garrison Afghanistan.

            Once our egos get over the hurt, Afghanistan would be forgotten just as every other Empire had forgotten about it.
            Originally posted by Sir Frederick Roberts, end of the second Anglo-Afghan war, in 1881
            The state of affairs which brought about the Treaty of Gandamak has completely changed.

            In place of our being obliged to occupy the advanced strategic positions secured to us by that treaty, and which the safety of our Indian Empire forced us to hold as long as Kabul was the centre of a great political and military power, we can now afford to withdraw our troops within our original frontier.

            We have nothing to fear from Afghanistan, and the best thing to do is to leave it as much as possible to itself. It may not be very flattering to our amour propre, but I feel sure I am right when I say that the less the Afghans see of us the less they will dislike us.

            Should Russia in future years attempt to conquer Afghanistan or invade India through it, we should have a better chance of attaching the Afghans to our interests, if we avoid all interference with them in the meantime. The military occupation of Kandahar is, as I have before stated, of vital importance ; but even there we should make our presence but little felt, merely controlling the foreign policy of the ruler of that province.
            Second time around the Brits left Afghanistan to the strongest Afghn leader, Abdur Rahman Khan, an enemy to the Brits and ally to Russia.

            It's as if after fighting the Taliban for ten years the US were to quit and put the Taliban back in charge. From the documentary by Rory Stewart, in 2011 (!)

            Talk about deja vu

            The gamble paid off. Abdur Rahman wanted a subsidy and no internal intererence in his country. And the Brits got control of Afghan foreign policy and most importantly Abdur Rahman did not allow the Russians to threaten India.

            For the Brits this was a perfect solution.
            Hmm, should we think along these lines ?
            Last edited by Double Edge; 26 Dec 21,, 20:49.

            Comment


            • Abdur Rahman done Mongol
              Chimo

              Comment


              • I mean the situation at the end of the second Anglo Afghan war is similar to the current situation

                - Taliban wants funds ie. recognition. I don't know what the deal with narcotics is. The last time around they clamped down on it for it to only prosper after they got deposed.

                - We want a veto on their foreign policy. Brits did not want the Russians to proceed, we don't want international terrorists to proceed.

                Is the Taliban's foreign policy up for sale ?

                As far as the Paks go, no because they have nothing to offer.

                To China, or the west that answer could depend on how well the haggle goes.

                At the same time such recognition will entrench a terrible regime which can't be good long term.

                Whether this will be the 'perfect solution' as the Brits saw it back in 1880 ?

                Comment


                • Whether by us or by our proxy, someone has to do a Mongol to get Afghanistan to do what we want.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • Are you really trying to say you are basing the success of the US in Afghanistan was a single A Team riding horses?

                    The author of the book (never mind the bullshit which is that movie) never made the claim. There was almost the entire 3rd Special Forces Group working with the Northern Alliance...not just 1 captain and 11 men. And they were backed by every air frame in the US Air Force & US Navy. The Marines airlifted a brigade into Kandahar. The 10th Mountain Division sent a brigade...as did the 101st Airborne. I know the exact where's and how's but I'm not at liberty to say. But the office where I was working in at the time was responsible for developing and organizing the support infrastructure for the entire effort in 2001-02. And the above was just the DOD effort. There was a massive logistics chain going back through Germany to the US and all elements of the US government were brought to bear...not just the DOD. Not to mention the massive amount of support we received from the UK, Canada, Norway and other NATO Allies.

                    And that doesn't even bring up the massive amount of defections from the Taliban forces to the Northern Alliance forces. And that was only in the northern part of the country.

                    The Horse Soldiers was looking through a straw at the war.
                    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                    Mark Twain

                    Comment


                    • Imran Khan's Pleading Fails: OIC Refuses To Recognise Taliban, Leaves Its FM Out Of Photo | Republic World | Dec 20 2021

                      OIC isn't ready to recognise the Taliban. They did not even want the Taliban's rep in the group photo.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                        Are you really trying to say you are basing the success of the US in Afghanistan was a single A Team riding horses?
                        It led to the fall of mazar Sharif which was an AQ stronghold. A big defeat for them mere months after 9/11

                        What it made apparent was how easy it was to displace the ruling regime. Compare that with what happened recently and there is a parallel.

                        We could not understand how fast the Taliban took over. Well, it happened just as fast twenty years ago.

                        Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                        The author of the book (never mind the bullshit which is that movie) never made the claim. There was almost the entire 3rd Special Forces Group working with the Northern Alliance...not just 1 captain and 11 men. And they were backed by every air frame in the US Air Force & US Navy. The Marines airlifted a brigade into Kandahar. The 10th Mountain Division sent a brigade...as did the 101st Airborne. I know the exact where's and how's but I'm not at liberty to say.
                        The story did not come out for well over a decade. There were other teams but the movie said this group was selected for a certain objective and that is what the movie was based on.

                        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americ...ponse_Monument

                        The public will remember the actions of these men and that is the recognition for the whole team. Because we rarely get to hear of their exploits.

                        Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                        But the office where I was working in at the time was responsible for developing and organizing the support infrastructure for the entire effort in 2001-02. And the above was just the DOD effort. There was a massive logistics chain going back through Germany to the US and all elements of the US government were brought to bear...not just the DOD. Not to mention the massive amount of support we received from the UK, Canada, Norway and other NATO Allies.

                        And that doesn't even bring up the massive amount of defections from the Taliban forces to the Northern Alliance forces. And that was only in the northern part of the country.

                        The Horse Soldiers was looking through a straw at the war.
                        Thanks for the details but i enjoyed the movie. The first of a string i saw on the war that actually makes you feel good. Yeah, Hollywood can do this when they put their mind to it.
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Dec 21,, 23:11.

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                        • Less than complimentary

                          Senior White House and State Department officials failed to grasp the Taliban’s steady advance on Afghanistan’s capital and resisted efforts by U.S. military leaders to prepare the evacuation of embassy personnel and Afghan allies weeks before Kabul’s fall, placing American troops ordered to carry out the withdrawal in greater danger, according to sworn testimony from multiple commanders involved in the operation.
                          An Army investigative report, numbering 2,000 pages and released to The Washington Post through a Freedom of Information Act request, details the life-or-death decisions made daily by U.S. soldiers and Marines sent to secure Hamid Karzai International Airport as thousands converged on the airfield in a frantic bid to escape.

                          Beyond the bleak, blunt assessments of top military commanders, the documents contain previously unreported disclosures about the violence American personnel experienced, including one exchange of gunfire that left two Taliban fighters dead after they allegedly menaced a group of U.S. Marines and Afghan civilians. In a separate incident a few days later, U.S. troops killed a member of an elite Afghan strike unit that had joined the operation and wounded six others after they fired on the Americans.

                          Kabul airport attack involved a single bomb with ‘disturbing lethality,’ Pentagon inquiry finds

                          The investigation was launched in response to an Aug. 26 suicide bombing just outside the airport that killed an estimated 170 Afghan civilians and 13 U.S. service members. But it is much broader, providing perhaps the fullest official account yet of the evacuation operation, which spanned 17 nightmarish days and has become one of the Biden administration’s defining moments — drawing scrutiny from Republicans and Democrats for the haphazard nature in which the United States ended its longest war.
                          In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                          Leibniz

                          Comment


                          • and Bidens response

                            Biden’s remarks came during a portion of the interview where Holt asked Biden about a U.S. Army report that had just been released that said that the Biden administration was ill-prepared to effectively withdraw from Afghanistan.

                            “I have to draw your attention to that Army report, an investigative report that’s come out about the lead up to the withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Holt said. “It interviewed many military officials and officers who said the administration ignored the handwriting on the wall. Another described trying to get folks in the Embassy ready to evacuate, encountering people who were essentially in denial of the situation.”

                            “Does any of that ring true to you?” Holt asked.

                            “No,” Biden claimed. “No, that’s not what I was told.”

                            Biden later said that he rejected the findings of the report and doubled down on it when further pressed on the matter.
                            In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                            Leibniz

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                              This is a review of how much was figured out at the time as things developed and i think the discussion here got most of it right. Well done chaps

                              “Everyone clearly saw some of the advantage of holding Bagram,” McKenzie said Tuesday, “but you cannot hold Bagram with the force level that was decided.”
                              was noted here and hence no Bagram

                              there were fears among administration officials that if the United States, by raising alarm, inspired other governments to quickly leave Afghanistan, it would accelerate the central government’s demise.
                              This too or why France could evacuate sooner but US could not.

                              During an Aug. 6 meeting, a National Security Council official, who is not identified in the report, appeared to lack a sense of urgency and told others involved that if the United States had to execute an evacuation, it would signal “we have failed,” Sullivan recalled. “In my opinion, the NSC was not seriously planning for an evacuation,” he said.
                              US military might not have liked it but i have to side with the civvies on this one as their job is the larger picture and ramifications thereafter.

                              Military's job is limited to the here and now.

                              No doubt withdrawal got complicated as a result. No other choice. Alternative would have been worse and goes back to the previous comment.

                              Biden later said that he rejected the findings of the report and doubled down on it when further pressed on the matter.
                              yes, of course. The WH & foreign office figure they were right to do so.

                              The negative commentary was obsessed with the optics of the situation. That's all.

                              White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday at the White House, after an early version of this story was published.

                              “I would just say if you look back at the specific planning steps we took, we did plan for a range of contingencies,” she said. “There wasn’t an anticipation that the Afghan National Security Forces would fall as they did, or as quickly as they did.”
                              Exactly

                              Pessimistic estimates placed the collapse at anywhere from 6 months to two years out.


                              The only thing i miss in this report is how many Taliban died in that suicide explosion at the airport. WAPO talks about an investigation report but does not mention this specific point.
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 11 Feb 22,, 20:30.

                              Comment


                              • You have to give the Afghanistan’s Taliban clerics their due! They did agree to let older girls attend higher education classes.
                                That they did, for 2 hours, after which they closed the schools again!
                                Of course they did not stipulate for how long they would be allowed to attend!
                                Back in the day, when I was a WAB member (Amled) there were quite a few members who had knowledge of the Koran,
                                if that is still true maybe someone could tell me where it stipulates that girls aren’t allowed a higher education.


                                https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pac...most-provinces

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