Collapse in Afghanistan

[Double Edge]

Bagram was untenable if we were also going to use Kabul for an airbridge.

As the Colonel said, without a massive infusion of troops, we could not hold Kabul & Bagram. What is happening now is what is called Non-Combatant Neo Evacuation...a NEO Operation. Other than breakout from encirclement and assault across a defended river a NEO Operation is the most difficult operation to pull off for the military...and usually one that is done on a small scale. NEO is intended to all registered noncombatants out of an active theater. You hope to have a quiet permissive environment...something which does not always happen. And you usually plan on running from the national capitol since that is where the embassy is and the majority of noncombatants who need evacuation. Hence, why this is being done from Kabul.

it would be difficult to defend both given the distance so you pick one.

Just to defend Kabul airport required sending an additional 5,000 troops. That would be to support the 2,500 already there.

Biden sends 5,000 troops to Afghanistan as the Taliban captures key northern city | USA Today | Aug 14 2021

So knowing all of this, knowing what our defense commitments are around the globe (we have troops active in over 120 countries globally, all who need continuous support),knowing the threat and what the risks involved are, and knowing that the manning of consular staff is greatly depleted because of the manpower cuts during the Trump Administration, I fully believe the avacuation of Afghanistan was going to be a shit sandwich.

To keep Bagram as well would require another 10k troops. And its a further drive up north when people can't even get to the Kabul airport because of the check points.

For a BN Command, it surprises me that he didn't even ask what the risks and committements were to holding Bagram.

His rant amounts to, Mgmt quit Bagram. This is why we got attacked at Kabul airport (?) Implying they'd have never dared attack Bagram. Mgmt is responsible. I quit.

Coming from a Lt. Col.

That is the sum total of what i got from this

Some one should write an article titled 'The myth of Bagram' because in the popular imagination its as impregnable as Fort Knox

[Double Edge]

Just keeps getting better

Rockets Launched at Kabul Airport After U.S. Strikes | NYT | Aug 30 2021

There were no casualties after the airport was defended by a counter-rocket system. On Sunday, a U.S. military drone blew up a vehicle full of explosives in Kabul.

A U.S. official said the rockets were brought down by a counter-rocket system after five were fired at the airport, and that there were no initial reports of casualties. The airport remained open, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details.

The Sunday strike thwarted an imminent threat to Hamid Karzai International Airport from the Islamic State Khorasan, a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command said.

Got the right truck

[Double Edge]

This is what withdrawal looks like

[Albany Rifles]

The Afghan trooper was screwed by the higher ups, here is a Marine saying the same thing. How do you guys respond to this ? agree or not

https://twitter.com/dhookstead/statu...25824099848192

This is a violation of his Oath of office and a violation of Article 88 of the Uniformed Code of Military Justice.

Any commissioned officer who uses contemptuous words against the President, the Vice President, Congress, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of a military department, the Secretary of Homeland Security, or the Governor or legislature of any State, Commonwealth, or possession in which he is on duty or present shall be punished as a court-martial may direct.

[Albany Rifles]

Disagree. The ANA is a 20 year battle hardened army with the last year, they were practically on their own with very little American help. They were expected to hold for at least 6 months if they started winning, they could have emerged the victor. No one expected a 11 day collapse; forcing the Americans to be the sole protection force for an NEO evac wheras everyone was expecting at least 6 months to get their Afghan buddies out.

Even if you give me 30 days notice, I could have a battle group secure a LOC to the airport. 11 Days? The best I could do is to land a reduced battalion; more likely just a re-enforced company to help guard the gates.

As it is, we were able to airlift in a reinforced brigade combat tea worth of combat power...6500 is a lot of GI Joes & Janes.

[Albany Rifles]

CIA out now

American Forces Destroy C.I.A. Base In Controlled Detonation | NYT | Aug 27 2021

That doesn't equal CIA out. It means they destroyed the infrastructure for a large force. Based on operating there for 20 years I am absolutely convinced they have a robust network of agents in place which will provide intel for years.

With a full formal US withdrawal the base became untenable.

This is simple precautions.

[Albany Rifles]

Yeah, and deservedly so. He knew it, felt it was worth it and did it anyway. That is honor. No sneaky snake Vindman, but a person who put it all on the line to say his peice.

Vindman answered a Congressional subpoena and was advised by the Office of the Army JAG that as a commissioned member of the Armed Forces he would have to comply. LTC Vindman's actions were wholly in keeping with his responsibilities as a US Army officer.

[Albany Rifles]

Just keeps getting better

Rockets Launched at Kabul Airport After U.S. Strikes | NYT | Aug 30 2021

Missed or shot down by C-RAM.

Totally within the expected threat envelope when conducting mission analysis for a NEO in a threat environment. When conducting Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield you look at your mission and all threat variants can impact it. Then you look to tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) to mitigate risks which arise during mission analysis. Rockets & mortars were near the top of the threat spectrum, which is why a C-RAM battery was part of the force package.

Which is why the C-RAM were deployed. Kind of wondered why it took so long to happen...expected this a week ago. That it didn't is gravy.

[Double Edge]

Which is why the C-RAM were deployed. Kind of wondered why it took so long to happen...expected this a week ago. That it didn't is gravy.

Evacs are not over yet

[Albany Rifles]

Evacs are not over yet

Never said they were.

[Double Edge]

From May last year.

Pentagon Is Drawing Up Afghan Withdrawal Plans for Trump | WSJ | May 26 2021

WASHINGTON—The Pentagon is preparing plans for President Trump to draw down forces from Afghanistan by as soon as this autumn, defense officials said, in keeping with Mr. Trump’s call on Tuesday for an American withdrawal.

The Pentagon’s plans include a series of options that range from a complete withdrawal to a partial pullout, officials said. One option would leave approximately 5,000 troops in Afghanistan, and another plan under consideration would leave about 1,500 troops there, according to several officials.

Another proposal would remove all American forces from the country, where the war has ground on for more than 18 years.

All the options would likely fundamentally change the current two-pronged U.S. strategy, which includes training and advising Afghan forces as well as conducting counterterrorism missions against Islamic State and other extremist groups.

Mr. Trump has pressed defense officials to show demonstrable progress on drawing down American forces in long-running war zones. Mr. Trump on Tuesday said he wanted troops home, but didn’t provide details.

“We want to bring our soldiers back home,” he said at the White House, but added that there was no deadline for doing so. “We are not meant to be a police force, we’re meant to be a fighting force,” he said.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army Gen. Mark Milley, are expected to present options to Mr. Trump as soon as this week, an official said. The New York Times reported Tuesday on plans the Pentagon was preparing to draw forces out of Afghanistan by election day.

The possibility of a total withdrawal likely would lead a host of American allies who also have troops in Afghanistan to abandon the mission, U.S. officials said. But if the U.S. were to remain, even with a smaller contribution of troops, some allies likely would remain and could assume greater responsibility for training and advising, officials said.

Leaving Afghanistan has been a longstanding goal of Mr. Trump that has taken new urgency because of this fall’s presidential election, some experts said.

“President Trump also has some legitimate skepticism about what the U.S. military tells him about the war. For too long, generals have provided rosy assessments of the conflict, and he doesn’t buy their claims,” said Tom Joscelyn, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “He has no patience for a small footprint containment strategy. He just wants out.”

Under the current drawdown plan, agreed to during peace talks between the U.S. and the insurgent Taliban in February, the U.S. military would reduce its footprint to about 8,600 troops by July. The Pentagon is ahead of schedule and expects to hit that threshold in coming days, officials said.

That figure, first proposed by the Trump administration in the summer of 2019, is the lowest figure the U.S. would need to sustain current operations, military leaders have said.

Among factors driving the potential drawdown is fears of an outbreak of the new coronavirus inside Afghanistan, defense officials said. Some officials believe Mr. Trump, who has long wanted to end the war in Afghanistan and bring troops home from other conflict zones, is citing the coronavirus crisis as adding urgency to a drawdown from Afghanistan.

Army Gen. Austin Miller, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has been open to trimming the force, and has done so already since he arrived in Kabul in September 2018.

But many top military officials, most of whom have fought in Afghanistan over the years, worry that pulling forces out altogether would imperil gains, abandon Afghan forces and risk the collapse of the fragile Afghan government.

Mr. Trump also faces enormous political risk if he removes all American forces only to watch large parts of the country slip into the control of Islamic State or another group, and one of those groups attacks the U.S.

Mr. Trump was highly critical of former President Obama’s decision in 2011 to remove all forces from Iraq, setting the stage for the rise of Islamic State.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), long a vocal opponent of pulling troops out of the region, said any withdrawal from Afghanistan should be based on conditions on the ground, not politics, and said Mr. Trump runs the risk of doing what Mr. Obama did in Iraq.

“The president would own the consequences and I’m hopeful that he will be prudent and listen to the generals, unlike President Obama,” he said Tuesday.

Mr. Graham said a “credible” counterterrorism force would serve as an “insurance policy” against attacks against the homeland without specifying the size of the force he envisions.

A U.S. drawdown or departure would be a boon for the Taliban, al Qaeda and other extremist groups, Mr. Joscelyn said.

“I think the Afghan government would lose more ground in certain areas of the country rather quickly. The only question is how big the Taliban’s Islamic emirate would be.” Mr. Joscelyn said.

During a Pentagon briefing Tuesday, spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said that any U.S. drawdown would be based on conditions on the ground in Afghanistan. But the U.S. is considering drawing down even after a continuation of violence including several high-profile attacks in recent weeks. Earlier this month, gunmen attacked a Kabul maternity ward, killing at least 24 people, including newborns, mothers and a midwife.

After that attack, the Afghan government said it would resume operations against the Taliban. But there were glimmers of hope this week after a three-day cease fire, designed to mark Eid-al-Fitr, the end of Ramadan, held. The Afghan government has said it wants to extend that cease fire.

On Tuesday, the Afghan government said it would release 900 Taliban members from prison, part of a swap deal agreed by the Taliban and U.S. during last year’s peace talks. It is the biggest such release proposed by the Afghan government.

This is all too little too late once the agreement was signed few months prior. Trump was determined to draw down as much and as soon.

Slam the govt when in the opposition and then do the same as they did when you are in office


Trump Says He Wants All Troops in Afghanistan Home by Christmas, Going Further Than Security Adviser | WSJ | Oct 08 2020

Mr. Trump ultimately reversed himself on Syria after top officials persuaded him otherwise. Supporters of Mr. Trump, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, (R., S.C.), have discouraged Mr. Trump from withdrawing all forces from Afghanistan. A drawdown could be reversed should former Vice President Joe Biden be elected president in November.

Didn't happen which leaves us to conjecture whether Trump would renege on his own deal. Unlikely.

A faster drawdown from Afghanistan could endanger American forces on the withdrawal if it is conducted on a political timeline, not a military one, military officials have said. Reducing the forces on a faster timeline could force the military to leave some of its equipment and infrastructure behind to meet the deadline, officials have said.

Last month, Ret. Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, who served as Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, criticized the administration’s push to withdraw from Afghanistan.

“He, in effect, is partnering with the Taliban against, in many ways, the Afghan government,” Gen. McMaster said in an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes.”

“I think that it’s an unwise policy. And I think what we require in Afghanistan is a sustained commitment to help the Afghan government and help the Afghan security forces continue to bear the brunt of this fight.”

And here is McMaster. What does he have in common with Esper & Bolton ? He too got fired !!

[tbm3fan]

Vindman answered a Congressional subpoena and was advised by the Office of the Army JAG that as a commissioned member of the Armed Forces he would have to comply. LTC Vindman's actions were wholly in keeping with his responsibilities as a US Army officer.

Someone needs a clear definition of what "honor" is I think but then is it a waste of your time?

[Officer of Engineers]

This is a violation of his Oath of office and a violation of Article 88 of the Uniformed Code of Military Justice.

I was wondering about that. The way we do it is to resign first, then spout your mouth off. We've had a number of Canadian Generals and Admirals who did this. The most famous is Senator Romeo Dallaire of the Rwanda Infamy.

[Officer of Engineers]

Some one should write an article titled 'The myth of Bagram' because in the popular imagination its as impregnable as Fort Knox

It boggles my mind that a LCol couldn't see the flaw in this arguement. How the hell do you get the civies from Kabul to Bagram? Remember what I said that no Soviet convoy escaped bullet marks or RPG scars and this was with a covering force and artillery support. Fall back by echelon. A Captain should see this flaw, never mind the Colonel of a battle school.

[Gun Grape]

It boggles my mind that a LCol couldn't see the flaw in this arguement. How the hell do you get the civies from Kabul to Bagram? Remember what I said that no Soviet convoy escaped bullet marks or RPG scars and this was with a covering force and artillery support. Fall back by echelon. A Captain should see this flaw, never mind the Colonel of a battle school.

He is in charge of the school that trains basic enlisted infantry. It truly is the place you put Cols out to retire because they are not qualified to Command.

Enlisted run the school, but you have to have someone to conduct Bn level NJP and CMs

On his XO tour he was kept stateside in charge of the rear party. Normally that's a job for a Captain who has completed their Company Command tour and is waiting on a seat for Command and Staff school. He will be replaced by the first person with shiny stuff on his collar that checks in while the unit is deployed. Defiantly not a billet for the Bn XO.