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  • Originally posted by Versus View Post

    ISKP is ISIL. Or IS do be exact. See, they have big goals and they are doing great.
    No, this lot are just disgruntled TB

    You believe they are IS because you went after ISIL.

    All a group has to say anywhere in the world is they are IS to get instant recognition.

    https://youtu.be/fdWa-oTDo1Y

    https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/s...78856207785984

    Click image for larger version  Name:	amrullah IS-K links.jpg Views:	0 Size:	54.3 KB ID:	1575742

    Originally posted by Versus View Post
    The way how it is going, Afghanistan might take over Pakistan in a very near future.
    The joke is the TB used Pakistan for strategic depth
    Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Aug 21,, 18:37.

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    • Originally posted by Gun Grape View Post

      I was part of Noble Obelisk, the largest NEO since Frequent Winds. There is nothing easy in a NEO

      In a few years when all the political BS is forgotten the current NEO will be studied as one of the most successful operations since the Berlin Airlift. The amount of people we are pushing through that place, and all the coordination that that entails, from getting fueled planes there to clearing those planeloads of people in host countries is showing the world what we can do.

      China and Russia aren't looking at "Oh they cut and ran" they should be looking at how fast the US can rapidly move a ton of people in a 24 hr period. This makes the airbridge during Desert Storm look like a Bn (squadron) field op
      Yeah Gunny

      You are spot on. NEO on a small scale is tough. NEO on this scale is mind-numbingly tough. The Moose & Herc squadrons are performing miracles. Holding that perimeter is tough. I keep thinking a single mortar platoon could wreck this whole thing. Its why we have to keep the peace with the Taliban to get folks out. And the Taliban are playing nice because this time around they don't want to be international pariahs...they need loans in order to build a functioning government. Turning on the evacuation will make sure they never get the aid they desperately need.
      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
      Mark Twain

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        This leaves our only answer was to try to turn Afghanistan into a democratic and properous nation. An impossiblity at best. Afghanistan's only worth is an invasion route to wealthy India.
        Or, as I heard posited the other day, why is China making nice with the Taliban is that a friendly Afghanistan will allow a land bridge to Iran and a expansion by land route. Currently the Belt & ROad to Iran has to go by sea. And a Belt & Road land access also will give China access to the Indian Ocean, greatly expanding their access for the PLAN.

        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
        Mark Twain

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          No we didn't. We picked a weak leader who neither have the balls not the muscles to do what's needed. Butcher Afghanistan.
          This is a mystery that remains to be answered. Why pick Ghani over Abdulla ? Abdulla won the election but the Americans wanted Ghani. So good he was they won't allow him entry into the US today. He's stuck in the UAE.

          Ghani was a world bank exec and an academic that ran when it got too hard besides making numerous mistakes along the way. eg. insisting outposts be held instead of consolidating in the rear. made it easy for the TB to cut of supply routes and starve them out.

          You mean they needed a Najibullah. The Americans should have picked a Najibullah like the Soviets did.

          ISI chief the one bragging here was sacked after a failed operation to take Jalalabad in 1988.

          Lost close to a thousand of his fighters against Najibullah. So Benazir sacked him as ISI chief.

          AIM mentioned on a recent trip to Afg he noticed people still kept photos of Najibullah. Never saw any of Karzai or Ghani. Najibullah was their hero.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Aug 21,, 14:18.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post



            Just as an FYI, the following shows the numbers where Americans got their information on Afghanistan over a 4 year period.

            Admittedly we had a lot going on but...

            I also have no doubt the numbers would be much higher if Fox & CNN were added but not by a huge amount.

            Basically, America has lost interest in Afghanistan until the last month....and wait until the next news cycle.
            Here's another list of numbers

            Costs of the Afghanistan war, in lives and dollars | AP | Aug 17 2021

            Number of times lawmakers on Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee addressed costs of Vietnam War, during that conflict: 42

            Number of times lawmakers in same subcommittee have mentioned costs of Afghanistan and Iraq wars, through mid-summer 2021: 5.

            Number of times lawmakers on Senate Finance Committee have mentioned costs of Afghanistan and Iraq wars since Sept. 11, 2001, through mid-summer 2021: 1.
            When the public gets less exposure there is less oversight as well

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
              It does.You give them more money than they can count.Which is still pennies compared to waste.And you can prevent them from killing each other too much by having eyes on the ground.NATO is the biggest tribe and has CAS on the other end of the radio.An universal language,sticks and carrots.
              Preventing AQ after 2010 when priorities switch to great power competition becomes a bonus.

              The real danger lies in that it emboldens every opponent of the West in the future.America,unlike in Vietnam was attacked.And now ME and Central Asia are abandonned.To people that understand only force,which is everybody,this is a defeat.Weakness only invites more war.
              You forget the other varible in the equation. Power. There ain't enough money in the world to stop a Patsun warlord from demanding tolls/cutting off his road to Hasari villages.

              The other thing you're forgetting is that there is very little difference between pro-Taliban and non-Taliban Afghans. Both believe in Sharia Law. Outside the Western influenced cities, even pre-Soviet days, the average Afghan don't know who does what in Kabul. They do know, however, the difference between Patshun and Hasari.
              Chimo

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              • An interview with Amrullah

                https://youtu.be/GMYYpTe636A

                Q. Do see the exit of Ghani as a betrayal ?

                A. It was not a betrayal by him only, if you look at the entirety of this picture or what is unfolding. The Afghan nation is facing a betrayal by the whole international community. No country stood by its word. We have been at the forefront of defending global security, we have been defending rights and values and we have been told time and again for years and years that the backing will be unwavering.

                It is very unfair these days to see they are saying that the Afghans did not fight. That is the most ridiculous statement and most nonsense description of the Afghan forces. They bravely fought, they were not well led. The negotiations with the Taliban in Doha was a backstabbing of our forces. It was backstabbing of American forces. It was a backstabbing of all those brave men and women in uniform who served in my country and particularly of brave afghan forces.

                So I would not put the blame on one individual. It's still early to reflect on what went wrong but let's be very clear it was one wrong political judgment which led to this massive tragedy which is still unfolding and it has not ended


                Q. Mr. Saleh you call yourself the legitimate caretaker president of Afghanistan, how do you propose to save and to take care of all of these people whose plight you just narrated and how do you propose to take your resistance forward ? What kind of resources and military might if i may do you have at your disposal at this point to take on the Taliban ?

                A. The first assistance we need is moral and political assistance. We ask the united nations, we ask the the countries who have diplomatic ties with Afghanistan to read our constitution, the very constitution they helped us draft and adapt and and have in place for over 15 years. It is very clear in absence of the president if he leaves, if he becomes sick beyond recovery or if he dies or if he's killed the vice president automatically becomes acting president.

                That is who i am and there are three other elements attached to that clause. That he has to have people, land and control. That's what we have, we have people and we have land under our control.



                Q. How will you keep control of the Panjshir valley with all the Taliban fighters reportedly surrounding it?

                A. Look at it this way. The Taliban control of a lot of provinces in Afghanistan is very shallow. The defeat and collapse was not military. It was a psychological collapse, a psychological defeat and it was triggered by series of political misjudgments, political decisions and the last of which was president Biden's decision to withdraw US troops without any regard to the situation on the ground.

                Without even negotiating with us how to fill the void and his decision reinforced the conspiracy theory that the Doha talks was actually meant to legitimise Taliban etc. So these wrong political decisions, wrong political maneuvers and the lack of will, lack of determination to come out and say the war in Afghanistan is backed by Pakistanis. They are on the wrong side of the equation, they are helping terrorists, they are helping the Taliban.

                That recognition and that acknowledgement always exists under the ceiling. Privately they will tell you all their frustrations but there was time and it was needed that we had to humiliate Pakistan, we had to talk about sanctioning Pakistan. Instead of united states and the western countries calling a spade a spade and dealing with the issue of Pakistan they unfortunately chose a path which led to their own humiliation, which led to the perception that they are defeated.

                It's still early, it's repairable, it's recoverable. Afghanistan is not lost. I'm an example of it. There are millions and millions of Afghans who are not ready to accept the Taliban.



                Q. You're the one who's leading a resistance movement so i ask you how how much support do you have in the Panjshir valley and how do you assess the situation ?
                Do you think it will come down to a clash with the Taliban they set you a four hour deadline to let them enter the valley it's been more than four days if I'm not wrong but but you've held your ground. How long do you think you can continue to do this ?


                A. It's not a matter of the length of the time, the number of the forces. It's the substance of our determination, it is the intensity of our will, it is also the boldness of our resistance. It doesn't matter that much how much land we control. It is the strength of our message, our message is pan afghan and we still have the Afghan national flag hoisted here. Sentimentally and politically all Afghans were with us. If we hold elections tomorrow the Taliban will not be able to win even one provincial council seat. They are hated, they are seen as proxies of of the Pakistanis.

                Now, look at it this way how much territory we have now. How much we will have tomorrow that in long run, in midterm is irrelevant. What is relevant is our message. Our message is hope has not died. Afghanistan will not become Talibanistan. The spirit of our freedom is there. Freedom will not die in Afghanistan and for us to stand for the dignity of our women and to stand for the right of our girls to go to school. We do not need American troops. We will do it ourselves. The strength of that message is shaking the Taliban. It is shivering them right now and therefore i am counting on our message, on our narrative, on our political strength.

                If you have a strong political narrative then your utility of force increases that is what we are doing right now i will not go to into details of how many troops we have, how many guns we have. Already with whatever we have, we have held the Taliban at bay and they understand that it's not necessarily how many guns we have in our disposal they understand that the strength of our message and narrative is what matters long term, mid term and even short term.


                Q. The strength of your message is is much appreciated and your optimism is touching Mr. Saleh but i'm not sure that Taliban are shivering. From where I sit I see the Taliban holding press conferences and dictating terms and setting deadlines for the Americans and NATO allies including America are looking at ways to meet that deadline so it's not as simple as as it may sound to you.

                How do you propose to take this resistance forward ? You say a lot of Afghans hate the Taliban.
                The Taliban are making promises, the Taliban are saying that they have evolved, they've changed you see that change ?
                Do you agree with that messaging because the former president of Afghanistan Mr Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah are also apparently engaging with them, the whole world seems to be ready to talk to them.

                Where does that leave you ?


                A. How i see the change is whether the Taliban are ready to discuss how the head of the state is to be elected and who determines the character of the state. That i consider change.

                Otherwise these little behavioral changes of allowing a school here, an NGO there -- that's not change. That is deception in order to buy some sympathy and entice some naive quarters into their trap so I'm not buying those things as changes

                And you are saying to me a lot of people are engaging with them. A lot of people who are engaging with them are not in Afghanistan. I'm in Afghanistan and Washington is leaving, Brussels is leaving. We thanked them, they were generous. Goodbye.

                It is my country and I'm not here putting a personal fight, I am not an adventurist

                I move around with minimum security and the spirit of the people is very high. The valley next to us is putting up a fight. It is not Panjshir only. Panjshir is now an icon, it's a symbol, it is representing the aspirations of a lot of people. We have become the capital of your first Afghan, we have become the de facto capital for all those Afghans who want this proxy group rolled back and one day they will be rolled back.

                What are you suggesting to me to say ? Shall i bow to their terrorism ? Absolutely not. They are not six feet tall and if they attack, it will be their choice and if they want to create a situation which will be irreversible, it will be their choice. What is very very clear is we are not surrendering, we will not surrender and we will not express allegiance to an emirate whose emir has not been seen by the afghan and most likely even tonight he is staying in an ISI state house


                Q. What have you heard of the leader Akunzada ? Where is the emir of this new emirate of Afghanistan ?

                A. Well i don't know if he is really in Afghanistan. They have to show him, he has to speak, so a lot of the Taliban leaders who have now come to Kabul, they have cancer of Pakistan. Pakistan's backing of the Taliban is not new, we all know it. Look at the Pashtun literature of our country today, every Pashtun writer, author and scholar is boiling and they are saying our country has been occupied stealthily by the Pakistani establishment. Qureshi is acting like the foreign minister of the Taliban.

                Can Pakistan subsidize a terrorist state, a pariah state in Afghanistan. If they can congratulations let's see.
                Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Aug 21,, 19:25.

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                • God Bless

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                    No ,Sir.It did not.It required a corp of experts in every valley.Medics,builders,de facto mayors,judges,policemen.AKA a SF team.Guys that live there instead of FOB,that eat what the locals sell instead of flying frozen burger kings .Guys that learn their language with their local accent.Who come to be arbiters of every little local feud that made the big boogie Taliban.Guys that train a local defense force in light infantry tactics,that involves scouting,tracking& pursuing every outside fvcker that arrives in a given area and after every contact.Pursue unti they surrender for being to tired to take a step.
                    The best of the locals come to be Afghan SOF,which is the national mobile reserve.
                    What we got instead was an expensive lie and a waste of everything.

                    A-stan may be a gateway to India,but is also a staging points for raids on future Chinese land LOC's with the ME,via the Stans and Iran.By abandoning Central Asia America actually makes a conflict with China more likely.
                    No Mihais, Muslim societies have very little to none capacity for a change. You could give to each Afghani a million dollars and it won't change a thing. They have no capacity to change because in essence they all believe that they are perfect and that there is nothing to change. Actually they see a change as an attack, hostile action aimed in degrading them. They are highly collectivist societies that unfortunately suffer from collective narcissism and narcissist by default don't learn anything. Ever. Because they believe that they are perfect. Same goes for the nations that they occupied (I mean look at us). Its a lost cause and it has been for centuries. Frankly, pulling out was the smartest idea. Simply forget about it in terms that you had a chance to do something but prepare for them when they come. Since narcissist never learn, they are constantly repeating the same thing so get that stake ready. We both know our history and what will follow. We have been there before.

                    It is a very sad state of affairs, I can only imagine how much it hurts you, when you saw the potential both in individuals and in groups but...it is what it is.
                    Last edited by Versus; 27 Aug 21,, 21:26.

                    Comment


                    • Was Biden handcuffed by Trump’s Taliban deal in Doha? | AP | Aug 19 2021

                      No, but..

                      Renegotiating, though, would have been difficult. Biden would have had little leverage. He, like Trump, wanted U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. Pulling out of the agreement might have forced him to send thousands more back in.
                      Even without a deal Biden would have tried to get out which would create the same scenario.

                      Two cabinet members that were pushed out because they opposed withdrawal don't give Trump or Biden a pass. Are they biased ?

                      Bolton thinks it would have been just as bad with Trump

                      See what former SecDef Mark Esper had to say. He blames both as well

                      Spoiler!


                      According to Bolton & Esper, the solution was No withdrawal with a minimum number of troops there is perpetuity. That means no deal until the Taliban makes good with the Afg govt.

                      Aha, but American politics would not allow it. It would if the consequences were better spelt out to the American public says Bolton which apparently both Trump & Biden failed to do.

                      Amrullah, Bolton & Esper are on the same page.
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Aug 21,, 22:26.

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                      • The Afghan trooper was screwed by the higher ups, here is a Marine saying the same thing. How do you guys respond to this ? agree or not

                        https://twitter.com/dhookstead/statu...25824099848192

                        Click image for larger version

Name:	Marine Col Stuart Scheller.jpg
Views:	313
Size:	73.3 KB
ID:	1575756

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                        • Originally posted by Versus View Post

                          ISKP is ISIL. Or IS do be exact. See, they have big goals and they are doing great.
                          Another point

                          ISKP are puppeteered by the Paks. ISKP's role is to act as a balancer between two factions of the Taliban. Quetta Shura & Haqqqanis

                          These two are at each others necks right now. Arguing over the spoils ? who gets to keep what

                          Paks are nervous they are losing control of the Taliban.

                          Same divide & rule game was used with the mujaheddin so they could unite to challenge the Paks over the Durand line.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Aug 21,, 00:37.

                          Comment


                          • In all of this "who f*cked up" debate a very clear fact emerges:
                            The Trump administration in February 2020 negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban that excluded the Afghan government, freed 5,000 imprisoned Taliban soldiers and set a date certain of May 1, 2021, for the final withdrawal.
                            Biden then extends it to Sept 11

                            April 14 — Saying it is “time to end the forever war,” Biden announces that all troops will be removed from Afghanistan by Sept. 11.
                            Biden then foreshortens it to Aug 31

                            July 8 — Saying “speed is safety,” Biden moves up the timeline for full troop withdrawal to Aug. 31.
                            Even with the foreshortening, the senior planners for this event have one year, six months to plan an orderly withdrawal, and failed comprehensively.

                            It's not Bidens fault, it's not Trumps fault, it is the senior military and senior administrative officials fault. It lies squarely with them.
                            In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                            Leibniz

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                              Even with the foreshortening, the senior planners for this event have one year, six months to plan an orderly withdrawal, and failed comprehensively.
                              Disagree. The ANA is a 20 year battle hardened army with the last year, they were practically on their own with very little American help. They were expected to hold for at least 6 months if they started winning, they could have emerged the victor. No one expected a 11 day collapse; forcing the Americans to be the sole protection force for an NEO evac wheras everyone was expecting at least 6 months to get their Afghan buddies out.

                              Even if you give me 30 days notice, I could have a battle group secure a LOC to the airport. 11 Days? The best I could do is to land a reduced battalion; more likely just a re-enforced company to help guard the gates.
                              Chimo

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                You forget the other varible in the equation. Power. There ain't enough money in the world to stop a Patsun warlord from demanding tolls/cutting off his road to Hasari villages.

                                The other thing you're forgetting is that there is very little difference between pro-Taliban and non-Taliban Afghans. Both believe in Sharia Law. Outside the Western influenced cities, even pre-Soviet days, the average Afghan don't know who does what in Kabul. They do know, however, the difference between Patshun and Hasari.
                                Colonel,Versus,that SOB will be less influential,more poor and more easily cowed.And I don't care if they support Sharia.Changing takes time.All I want is they grow wheat instead of poppy,remove the outside instigators and stay content.In the long run,they might be useful mounting a Jihad against the Chinese Satan opressing fellow muslims over the border.Or helping foment an insurgency in the other Stans against a Chinese supported leadership.

                                Of course,that COA is all gone.We deal in reality.And reality sucks.We'll have 0 motives for anyone allying with US after this disaster.We'll have a Chinese road leading to the Gulf and Chinese army(or a Russian mercenary outfit in their pay) overlooking ME.ME leads to Africa.
                                So instead of isolating China by cutting their LOC's with outside world right at their border,we'll have to isolate it by cutting its African& ME suppliers at the source.Meaning the next interesting wars will be there.Another round of ME campaigns and a lot of small,unconventional ones in Africa.

                                In the long run,the costs for deliberately self sabotaging the Afghan campaign would come to light and there will be a huge bill in both blood and cash for treating this war as embezzlement source.The US had a knife at China's throat before the fight had even begun.The US removed the knife and let them actually fight.
                                Those who know don't speak
                                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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