Collapse in Afghanistan

[Double Edge]

If anything, all this is a message to US allies, if we could let Afghanistan go, we can let you go if you don't play along and its a damn effective one.

Agreed, this is the correct way to interpret US actions here. I think its understood by US allies already. The Afg case is sui generis

But that is not how is its being portrayed in the media.

The US is the bad guy who cut and ran. Not the Afghan administration who well, cut and ran.

[Double Edge]

Well more of consolidation, the next step so to speak. In Bosnia they were pretty active, both shia and sunni, even late Suleimani was there along with 100 Iranian secret service agents. Kosovo was their first proving ground and they did it immaculately. At first they cleansed their ranks, so at the start, most of the killings was Albanian on Albanian, than usual extortion, blackmail etc and once they achieved the unification, the show was ready to go. They accomplished it rather quickly, a couple of months was all that was needed for them to unify the population. What Yugoslavia did there was exactly the same what the Americans and NATO did in Afghanistan with naturally same outcome. Funny thing is, that I even have the invoices for the financial aid that we were giving Albanians in order to prop them up to "the next level".

Bingo for Kashmir. Our excuse was the Paks what was yours ?

As i see it you did not have any coherent external entity driving things. More like a bunch of mercs on a mission. I was not aware of Suleimani's presence in Yugoslavia. That would be coherent against a state that was falling apart so easier to fish in troubled waters. The UN intervention makes it harder still because now you have others entering the game. You have lost at this point.

The Bosnians & Albanians what % are Shia ?

Yeah, our leftists were all in for it, so today's woken ones in the west are a pale replica of ours decades ago. That is why none of these things surprises me, it has all been seen and tried before here with the same outcome. Even the first mass wave of migrants wasn't from middle east, it was from Kosovo, some 100.000 of them, like an army, orderly and synchronized...Same goes for the 99 with the refugees, how they organized all that was top notch, by the book.

Not an option for countries like India or Israel that have to hold together.

Don't worry for the ISIL, they played this perfectly, they are in a position now where they cannot lose, everything works in their favor, perfect timing, perfect strategic positioning, if it wasn't horrible I would call it an artwork of achieving the strategic goals.

Not ISIL, in this area it would be IS Korasan. I don't see much future for them in Afg.

In any case ISIL have been beaten back for now.

[Versus]

Bingo for Kashmir. Our excuse was the Paks what was yours ?

As i see it you did not have any coherent external entity driving things. More like a bunch of mercs on a mission. I was not aware of Suleimani's presence in Yugoslavia. That would be coherent against a state that was falling apart so easier to fish in troubled waters. The UN intervention makes it harder still because now you have others entering the game. You have lost at this point.

The Bosnians & Albanians what % are Shia ?


Not an option for countries like India or Israel that have to hold together.



Not ISIL, in this area it would be IS Korasan. I don't see much future for them in Afg.

In any case ISIL have been beaten back for now.

Well our case is a bit different than India although our faiths in the 19th century were intertwined without us even knowing. In our case we were never allowed to truly free Kosovo from the Ottomans (Muslims for that matter) and for almost a century it was the source of all problems that Serbia had. It is very similar to Kashmir but not exact. As for the similarities with the Afghanistan and Kosovo they are like 99% the same. Same mentality, same social structure (tribes clans families with over 100 or more), enormous presence of drugs and human trafficking. Some here say that Afghanistan was a main supplier of opium and heroin for the Eu while Kosovo is the largest distributor of heroine for the Eu and when ever drugs are involved with them various intelligence services are present too. It would neatly explain the resentment of the US military toward deepsy state and its services.But the blueprint was developed there. Everything that has happened in Kosovo before and during the 90es is re printed from Iraq, to Afghanistan and Syria etc.

Don't be so sure about ISIL, they are quite resourceful.

Also Taliban fast take over is nothing new and unexpected, whom ever bother to look at history of Islamic conquests would know that that is the way how they roll. Years, even centuries of infiltration, disintegration from inside and than when moment is right, bam, flash military victory. That is what Albanians did to us.

Surprise, surprise...

Sure thing, he was with many others, with both Eu and US approval. They were "freedom fighters" you know, curbing the malignant Russian influence and showing the Arab world that they are not anti Islam, by allowing them to chop off our heads. Biden played a big role in advancing the cause during the Clinton administration. Unfortunately, what goes around comes around.
https://www.rferl.org/a/iranian-medi.../30408664.html

[Double Edge]

Is China Teaming Up with the Taliban?

US: "Should we tell them?"
Russia: "Nah."
UK: "Everyone gets their turn, mates. Let me buy you a pint while we watch."

Russia: "So how long do you think they'll stay? As long as I did?"
UK: "Nah, they care even less for their troops than you did. Probably longer. What about you 'Murica?"
US: "Put me down for $200 on 25 years."


US: "So uh, How much are you guys in the hole for? They stuck me for 2.2 trillion."
Russia: "Eh, it doesn't matter. Soviet debts belonged to a government that no longer exists."
UK: "Wait, you can do that?"
Russia: "Well it helps to control the heating during the winter for Europe."

Re: China's interest in Afghanistan

The CCP & the Talban deserve each other

[Versus]

Re: China's interest in Afghanistan

The CCP & the Talban deserve each other

Well that is a very interesting approach. China gives covid, trump gets booted out, in return US leaves Afghanistan, meanwhile China buys Pakistan and trough Pakistan gets access to minerals it needs for its industrial needs. Namely Lithium. Mmmm, maybe...sounds plausible...Which makes Taiwan next theater and exactly where HMS Queen Elizabeth is heading.

[Double Edge]

^^
https://qz.com/2047785/under-the-tal...tans-minerals/

The Taliban can’t simply flick a switch and dive into the global lithium trade, Schoonover said. Years of conflict have left the country’s physical infrastructure—roads, power plants, railways—in tatters. And at the moment Taliban militants are reportedly struggling even to maintain the provision of basic public services and utilities in the cities they have captured, let alone carry out economic policies that can attract international investors.

Competing factions within the Taliban would make it very difficult for any company to negotiate mining deals, and China is unlikely to extend to the group the scale of infrastructure loans that would be required to bring any sizable mining operations online, said Nick Crawford, a development economics researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. That’s especially true after Chinese investors got burned on a $3 billion copper mining project in Afghanistan, that started in 2007 and failed to produce anything, largely because of challenges related to the lack of infrastructure.

“As long as there are safer and more reliable sources elsewhere, full utilization of Afghan minerals is likely to remain slow,” Schoonover said. However, China and Russia are already retaining diplomatic ties with the Taliban, and will almost certainly do business with the new regime on its home turf.

Was wondering what happened to that copper mine China invested in back in 2008

China’s epic fail in Afghanistan | Frieght Waves | Jan 15 2018

In November 2007, a 30 year lease worth $3B was granted to the China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) and Jiangxi Copper, Ltd, (JCL) to develop the site, extract and smelt copper, and transport it by rail to the capital city Kabul and then out of the country. The Mes Aynak ore deposit is estimated to hold reserves worth $88B: the mining lease is China’s largest investment in Afghanistan, and Afghanistan’s largest foreign investment in the country’s history. The Mes Aynak ore is supposed to be high grade, at 2.3% copper, at a time when the average purity of copper ore being mined is less than 1%. According to a document produced in 2011 by the National and Regional Resources Corridors Program, the Afghan government hoped to generate $1B in revenue from its mining sector by 2017, with the Mes Aynak development helping lead the way with $350M in revenue.

A little more than ten years later, exactly zero copper has been mined by China at Mes Aynak, and the 2017 revenues reported by the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum amounted to only $86M, 8.6% of its target. In the meantime, the two Chinese companies have formed a partnership called MJAM (MCC-JCL Aynak Minerals), and the story of MJAM’s struggles at Mes Aynak has given us a valuable lesson in the limits of Chinese economic ambitions and the logistical difficulties of developing mineral resources in remote, unstable regions lacking basic infrastructure.

Why has the project stalled? Sure, there were some security issues, but minor ones for Afghanistan. Mes Aynak hasn’t come under direct attack, and the Taliban even reached an agreement promising not to interfere with the mine.

The real challenges were supply-chain problems: there was not enough coal, or even roads to transport a sufficient amount of coal, to supply the proposed power plant. The same was true of the phosphates needed for the copper smelting process—the phosphate supply was insufficient and the infrastructure to move it onsite simply did not exist.

In recent years the United States has poured $500M into Afghanistan’s mining industry, with little return for its investment. Afghanistan’s fabled mineral resources were reportedly the only thing convincing President Trump to keep U.S. forces in Afghanistan—maybe copper, gold, silver, platinum, and uranium could finally pay for America’s longest war. But “there is no low-hanging fruit that could trigger rapid growth and foster self-sustaining development,” said the Afghan’s government’s own National Peace and Development Framework document, presented at last year’s donor conference in Brussels. In the long run, we may be better off learning from the Mes Aynak boondoggle and steering clear from further risky, expensive investments in Afghanistan.

So its a pipedream until they get basic infastructure in place. The Russians discovered it, didn't exploit it. Americans confirmed Russian findings but couldn't get much further and the Chinese already got burned.

There are other mines but there is no Saudi Arabia to be had in the middle term.

As for Lithium, the leaders are Chile & Australia

https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news...ous-issue.html

Very few extremists there and the locals don't get about with AK's & RPG's

[Versus]

^^
https://qz.com/2047785/under-the-tal...tans-minerals/



Was wondering what happened to that copper mine China invested in back in 2008

China’s epic fail in Afghanistan | Frieght Waves | Jan 15 2018



So its a pipedream until they get basic infastructure in place. The Russians discovered it, didn't exploit it. Americans confirmed Russian findings but couldn't get much further and the Chinese already got burned.

There are other mines but there is no Saudi Arabia to be had in the middle term.

As for Lithium, the leaders are Chile & Australia

https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news...ous-issue.html

Very few extremists there and the locals don't get about with AK's & RPG's

And us. Rio Tinto already dug its fangs deep here. They will turn Serbia into a surface of Mars and than we can rent it to whomever wants to practice colonization. Don't worry about Afghan ore, they will find a way.

[Double Edge]

He puts the collapse down to morale failure. How can that be when he admits the ANA did fight effectively for the last few years ?

More went on behind the scenes at the higher level of the Afghan administration and military and it amounts to nothing less than treason.

[Versus]

He puts the collapse down to morale failure. How can that be when he admits the ANA did fight effectively for the last few years ?

More went on behind the scenes at the higher level of the Afghan administration and military and it amounts to nothing less than treason.

O M G...Just when I thought that it can't get any worse...Yeah, the country boys need the time and the safe space to prove themselves. I like this push, to move them into political sphere, funny as hell. Never mind that they already declared the Islamic emirate, that they have the law and everything else in place to govern the country and been acting according to that the whole time.

Country boys summer....

[zraver]

Biden is getting punked. With thousands of people trapped and potential hostages the Taliban feels able to make demands of the US.

Taliban warn of 'consequences' if US and Britain try to extend August 31 withdrawal deadline | Daily Mail Online

[TopHatter]

Biden is getting punked. With thousands of people trapped and potential hostages the Taliban feels able to make demands of the US.

Taliban warn of 'consequences' if US and Britain try to extend August 31 withdrawal deadline | Daily Mail Online

Biden needs to send a strong "Don't be fucking morons and fuck up your golden ticket" message to the Taliban. Let's see if he has the balls to do so.

[Tronic]

Biden needs to send a strong "Don't be fucking morons and fuck up your golden ticket" message to the Taliban. Let's see if he has the balls to do so.

He doesn't. US's most wanted terrorists are basically parading around right in front of them and he's trying to convince his audience that they aren't that bad.

This man is a pure politician, he will only act after there is another attack and public opinion is ripe to exploit for political benefit.

Every day he speaks is a reminder that the majority didn't really vote for him, they just voted against Trump.

[TopHatter]

Every day he speaks is a reminder that the majority didn't really vote for him, they just voted against Trump.

That is indeed why I personally voted for him.

[zraver]

That is indeed why I personally voted for him.

Going to be a lot of buyers remorse. Biden needs to change his name to Uboat because he is sinking both the US ship of state, the Dems midterm hopes and Harris' political future.

[TopHatter]

Going to be a lot of buyers remorse. Biden needs to change his name to Uboat because he is sinking both the US ship of state, the Dems midterm hopes and Harris' political future.

Considering the ghastly alternative, there's not a shred of buyer's remorse on my part. None whatsoever.

He could very well be sinking the Dems midterm hopes (not my problem, none of my concern) and/or Harris' political future (ditto). All depends on the memory of the American voter and the rampant gerrymandering and voter suppression of the Trump Party.

But sinking the US ship of state? Let me know when Biden attempts to overthrow the results of a free and fair election and incites a mob of cultists to assault the seat of the US government.

Until then, gimme a fuckin' break.