Collapse in Afghanistan

[tbm3fan]

Bet I got the backyard right if you look at political donations to Reid by people linked to SNC. Military pork gets passed around, but the guys at the top get first dibs. Our endless wars overseas fuel corruption here at home.

Post your donation trail here ___________. Then post him directing USAF to chose SNC in Florida here __________. While this stuff is pork you named a person so post direct proof of your claim first.

[InExile]

The absolute overt joy at which Pakistani officials are celebrating, their Prime Minister, Imran Khan congratulating the Taliban victory and proclaiming that the "chains of slavery have been broken" goes to show how neck deep the Pakistani state has been invested in the Taliban. This is without a doubt an ISI victory.

This is something I still find hard to understand. Pakistan has clearly played a double game in Afghanistan for almost 20 years. On one hand they remain a nominal US ally, allowing US supplies to pass through the country and sometimes conducting operations against extremist groups in the tribal areas.

On the other hand, they have hosted the Taliban leadership and probably directly funded the Taliban fighters through the ISI. This is probably what, more than anything else that doomed the US effort to failure.

I am not sure how Pakistan has escaped retaliation for so long. Was it fear of nuclear weapons and destabilizing the country? Or was it any residual loyalty and or inertia from the Cold war alliance? Or was it just a recognition that the US had limited options for reigning in Pakistan short of a war for which there was no political will or support.

[InExile]

I keep seeing the 300,000 number being tossed around but it's an open secret that number is a farce. Botched evacuation plan aside, someone needs to own up that this whole thing was a massive intelligence failure. It is untrue that Afghan soldiers simply threw away their weapons and ran. They were ordered to stand down by sold-out commanders and officials. There are videos where Afghan soldiers, in tears, are refusing to hand over their weapons to the Taliban but are being forced to by their commanders. This was an operation which had been going on for more than a year all across Afghanistan and no intelligence picked it up? How is that possible?

The Soviet Union was able to keep its Afghan Government propped up for almost three years after its withdrawal, with relatively minimal funding and support. And this was against militia's that were supported by the world's other super power. It was only the collapse of the USSR that doomed the Najibullah government.

The Americans couldn't even ensure the survival of its Afghan allies until its own withdrawal was complete. The Taliban clearly had external support, in addition to Pakistan there are reports of Russian and even Iranian funding. It seems that the Afghan army couldn't even operate effectively anymore once American contractors and intelligence were withdrawn. This was probably what prompted the provincial commanders and officials to defect to the Taliban en masse. This has happened in Afghanistan before, like during the collapse of the Taliban and even in the 90s during the collapse of successive governments.

It almost seems that the US threw away its position in Afghanistan for domestic considerations. First it was the Trump isolationists which led to the signing of the one sided peace agreement with the Taliban. While there were anti-war elements on the left, the main factor in the hasty withdrawal appears to have been the conviction on the part of Biden and some of his advisors that Afghanistan was a lost cause and further engagement was pointless.

[Ironduke]

Nope, look at Soviet force levels, They did seek and destroy type missions but they never flooded the zone. I think Soviet and Afghan Army forces total never broke 200k. About half our peak (US/NATO/Afghan security forces). China on the other hand would not just send in hundreds of thousands of troops, but those troops would arrest every iman or suspected iman, or suspected of knowing a local iman Afghani they found for "re-education", or the organ markets.... Like I said the Taliban is and has been going out of its way to not piss off China or say boo about the Uighur issue. They even refuse to let Uighurs join them in the quest to liberate Afghanistan. China is the one power the Taliban fears..... They see what China did to their co-religionists across the border, concentration camps, villages devoid of men, they hear the rumors of executions to provide organs, forced prostitution of Muslim women.....

I seriously doubt such a scenario ever could or would play out. First off, China is sovereign over Xinjiang and has had secure control over the borders for decades. There is little prospect for arms or foreign fighters to reach Xinjiang. Some men from Xinjiang have slipped out to become foreign fighters elsewhere, but except for perhaps a handful, the reverse isn't true.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, has porous borders with five other countries, and has been in a constant state of war and civil war for over 40 years, thus having a large population of men with fighting experience. Xinjiang has not had that experience in living memory (perhaps some men in their 80s and 90s), and does not have a large population of men experienced in militancy and combat.

And I doubt the Taliban fears China, for the simple reason that China's not going to go into Afghanistan. They're about as likely to show up in Afghanistan as they would be to show up with a knock on my door in the middle of the night, to round me up from my home in the US, and send me to an re-education camp.

[kato]

Germany is airlfiting two H145M LUH SOF helos to Kabul to retrieve people who don't make it to the airport, now declared officially. In US service they're known as UH-72, although the German variant differs a bit.

[Firestorm]

I am not sure how Pakistan has escaped retaliation for so long. Was it fear of nuclear weapons and destabilizing the country? Or was it any residual loyalty and or inertia from the Cold war alliance? Or was it just a recognition that the US had limited options for reigning in Pakistan short of a war for which there was no political will or support.

Not having options is certainly not true. The Pakistani economy has been in the ICU multiple times over the past 20 years and has required IMF bailouts, loans from multiple foreign countries and the huge US aid assistance during the WoT to remain afloat. The US has a lot of influence on the IMF as well. That is enough leverage right there to make them behave. There was also the option similar to targeted sanctions on Putin's cronies which the US used in the past. The Pakistani elite in power including the Generals love sending their kids to the US to study and settle. Many of them have long had dual citizenship (either the US or UK) or are trying to get it. A squeeze on Visas and GC's for them would have made a big difference too followed by a squeeze on overseas assets.

Why none of this was even attempted can only be answered by the US State Department.

[Firestorm]

The Soviet Union was able to keep its Afghan Government propped up for almost three years after its withdrawal, with relatively minimal funding and support. And this was against militia's that were supported by the world's other super power. It was only the collapse of the USSR that doomed the Najibullah government.

The Americans couldn't even ensure the survival of its Afghan allies until its own withdrawal was complete. The Taliban clearly had external support, in addition to Pakistan there are reports of Russian and even Iranian funding. It seems that the Afghan army couldn't even operate effectively anymore once American contractors and intelligence were withdrawn. This was probably what prompted the provincial commanders and officials to defect to the Taliban en masse. This has happened in Afghanistan before, like during the collapse of the Taliban and even in the 90s during the collapse of successive governments.

It almost seems that the US threw away its position in Afghanistan for domestic considerations. First it was the Trump isolationists which led to the signing of the one sided peace agreement with the Taliban. While there were anti-war elements on the left, the main factor in the hasty withdrawal appears to have been the conviction on the part of Biden and some of his advisors that Afghanistan was a lost cause and further engagement was pointless.

An article from back in 2015 may offer some explanation: A Tale of Two Afghan Armies

The fall and the subsequent sack of Kunduz on 27 September 2015, exposed to the world a trio of poorly trained, unsoldierly, and inept Afghan National Army (ANA), Afghan National Police (ANP), and Afghan Local Police (ALP). Moreover, it highlighted an army that, despite billions of dollars of investment by Washington, is haplessly underperforming. In contrast, the Army of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) under the leadership of President Najibullah proved itself to be a fighting force worthy of its name. That army, which enjoyed the patronage and technical support of the Soviet Union –though inferior and antiquated at the time– defeated a mujahidin battle group (what has now mostly become the Taliban) supported by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and other foreign entities in the Battle of Jalalabad in the waning days of the communist regime.

A unifying ideology with nationalistic overtones, a strong charismatic leader, a professional officer corps, a conscription-based military service, overwhelming fire-power, and the idea of a common enemy led to the DRA government’s decisive victory in Jalalabad (1989). By contrast, a majority of today’s ANA units consist of soldiers who have enrolled for economic reasons. It is plagued with an officer corps that is mostly comprised of illiterate former militia members, and suffers from ethnic imbalance. Based on this writer’s extensive in-country observations, the majority of the ANA, ANP, ALP units are not fighting for a core set of common beliefs and goals; they lack in patriotism and commitment to the very notion of a unitary, democratic, and multi-ethnic Afghanistan.

“You want to know why it’s dumb to attack Jalalabad? Because it’s dumb to lose ten thousand lives ... And if we do take it, what’s going to happen? The Russians will bomb the s**t out of us, that’s what.”

-Abdul Haq, Mujahidin Commander.

Developing the Concept of a Common Enemy

Fundamental to Najibullah’s success was the concept of the common enemy which was adopted by his regime and military commanders. Najibullah was an accomplished orator whose anti-Pakistan speeches rallied the various Afghan ethnic groups around him, and helped bolster a sense of national unity. Najibullah, through state media, warned the Afghan nation about the Pakistani-backed mujahidin. He employed anti-Afghan statements made by Pakistan’s leaders as fodder for his central theme. Najibullah used acerbic comments made by Pakistani officials in his information operations campaign, which rallied the Afghans under the umbrella of Afghan nationalism. Najibullah’s message resonated with his army, and they came to believe that the mujahedeen were nothing more than Pakistani proxies bent on destroying the Afghan state. Thus, members who were not fully indoctrinated in communism, or Afghan nationalism, at a minimum were convinced by the Afghan state that the real enemy was foreign.

The following quotes are small examples of Pakistan’s central anti-Afghan state theme:

• “The water in Afghanistan must boil at the right temperature.” Former President of Pakistan, President Zia-ul-Haq, 1979.

• “Kabul must burn.” Lieutenant-General Akhtar Abdul Rahman Khan, Former Director of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, 1987.

• "You cannot deny us the drive into Kabul in victory to pray at the Kabul mosque." Hamid Gul, Former Director of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, 1989.

In direct contrast to Najibullah’s theme regarding the mujahidin, former Afghan President Hamid Karzai referred to the Taliban as “brothers” and stated, “We call on our Taliban brothers to come home and embrace their land.” The current Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, called the Taliban his “political opponents.” Unlike Najibullah, both Karzai and Ghani have not demonized the Taliban. Thus there is no “common enemy,” only “brothers” and “political opposition.” Despite the Taliban’s violence, and murderous attacks that has resulted in the deaths of thousands of Afghan, American, and coalition lives, both of these Afghan leaders have used soft, accommodating language to describe the Taliban

DRA Army vs. ANA

When the two armies’ are compared in terms of performance, one will realize that the difference can be explained in terms of the “motivational belief system” of the troops, professionalism of the officer corps and the military leadership, as well as the national political leadership. The communist Afghan army possessed a body of core beliefs which included sanctity of national borders, independence and inviolability of the national sovereignty. Of note is the little studied fact that affected the psyche of the soldiers of the old Afghan army. The official term for the military service was the Arabic word mukallafiyat, meaning obligation. Military service was a national obligation, not a choice; not done for pay. By being obligated to a two-year service, the soldiers became a part of the governance apparatus. Former Afghan army officers, whom I talked to while deployed to Afghanistan, recalled their former national service as, “a duty filled with honor and dignity.”

The officer corps of the old Afghan army underwent a 3-year full-time training and indoctrination program at a military college and further advanced training in the USSR, Turkey, and India. As Cronin contends, the former Afghan military slowly became professionalized from 1920s-1980s through the Afghan military academy, which produced an “educated and trained officer corps.”[xii]

Today’s ANA was created from new template without much regard to past Afghan Army traditions. Creating a professional institution takes time and patience. The Soviets invested in the Afghan officer corps from 1955 until 1992.[xiii] The U.S. model of immediate results and short courses has proved bereft.

The entire article is very instructive on what was wrong with the ANA and had always been wrong. The US seemed to think recruiting a large body of troops, giving them fancy equipment and training them to fight like American soldiers do would help them build a new army. It doesn't work unless every officer and soldier knows and believes in what he is fighting for.

[Parihaka]

10,000 Afghan military casualties per year for the past couple of years, thousands more before that. There was an outpost in Kunduz which held out the Taliban for 2 months without being resupplied and eventually running out of food and ammunition. Dozens of air-dropped Afghan commandos who fought till they ran out of bullets because the local police dissipated and they didn't know the local area to fight their way out. Biden also took away their air support. There are other videos I have seen where Afghan military convoys were ambushed and massacred, possibly due to inside information being passed on to the Taliban. How did the intelligence not pick any of this up?

I keep seeing the 300,000 number being tossed around but it's an open secret that number is a farce. Botched evacuation plan aside, someone needs to own up that this whole thing was a massive intelligence failure. It is untrue that Afghan soldiers simply threw away their weapons and ran. They were ordered to stand down by sold-out commanders and officials. There are videos where Afghan soldiers, in tears, are refusing to hand over their weapons to the Taliban but are being forced to by their commanders. This was an operation which had been going on for more than a year all across Afghanistan and no intelligence picked it up? How is that possible?

The absolute overt joy at which Pakistani officials are celebrating, their Prime Minister, Imran Khan congratulating the Taliban victory and proclaiming that the "chains of slavery have been broken" goes to show how neck deep the Pakistani state has been invested in the Taliban. This is without a doubt an ISI victory.

Precisely

[Double Edge]

Yes, they could. But as the article mentions, using conventional systems like that opens them up to a bunch of probable outcomes, none of them really good.

I've heard similar reasoning made by one of my commentators.

Having control of the frame is different from having control of the aircraft.

Control of the aircraft means you know how to maintain it, how to arm it, how to fly it and how to use it.

Now are you telling me that goat herders who have won all these things without having used a single piece of heavy artillery or tanks ?

What tanks they know how to drive they know how to drive very rudimentary, they've not had any tactical training on them or anything like that

So they may have captured them, can they fly those tukanos. To date there are only about two three videos of the Taliban being able to fly Black hawk helicopters that they captured.

The mi 24s, the Russian attack helicopters which India gifted them that they captured from air bases if you notice don't even have their rotors attached.

Remember each aircraft that they've captured has a very very different maintenance requirement, maintenance schedules and procedures and things like that. They're not going to be able to use any of those right now.

[Double Edge]

They don't need to. What the Chinese are interested in is their mineral wealth - copper Lithium etc. And they have very deep pockets. Just what the new Taliban regime needs. There is news of the US freezing the Afghan Central Bank reserves which are held in overseas accounts. They total about $9.5 billion. That is chickenfeed for China. I'm sure they will be happy to loan the Taliban that money at very generous rates in return for access to their mines plus protection.

Chinese might fund certain projects but are they willing to fund the Afghan state ? Needs $6bn annual to run. China has not done this anywhere else to date.

The Taliban are sitting on $1 trillion worth of minerals the world desperately needs

This $1tr estimate comes from a USGS survey dating back to the 70s. Has there been another more recent survey since ?

Where's the assurance there really is that much to be exploited. Chinese would have to spend billions to get at those resources and still more billions to develop a transport network to get it out. This is all good as it leaves them with less resources to trouble neighbours and gives the US time to gear up to deal with them later.

^^The Chinese are salivating at this. The Saudis have already shown that if you are rich in natural resources the world doesn't give a shit how many women you oppress, how many journalists you kill and how much islamic radicalism you support. If the Talibanis have even an ounce of brains they can leverage this to their benefit.

Sounds like the perfect setup to entrap the Chinese. Will they bite

China could get involved but the question is how much security can the Taliban provide ?

That's always the big question see and what is the price they will extract if they're really smart.

I'm hoping they do that because if they actually cut deals with the Chinese you will see a rise of Pashtun nationalism in Afghanistan which will automatically set it on a collision course with Pakistan

The issue is Pakistan wants control of those resources so it will do anything to prevent the afghan government from independently negotiating with China and things like that because Pakistan feels that Afghanistan's natural resources will turn Pakistan into a Saudi Arabia that can get rich because remember even in Saudi Arabia all the oil is in the Shia northeast regions and the Shias there are treated like dirt

So they feel they can treat the afghans like dirt extract like the way they've treated the Baloch like dirt extract and get rich off it and solve all their problems.

Not going to happen.

This is one of the classic cases where if China triumphs, Pakistan loses and if Pakistan triumphs China loses.

But, if the Chinese are anything they are cautious

https://twitter.com/GeringTuvia/stat...31982887096324

Liu's top concern is that the Taliban regards "terrorists like the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement" [Uyghur separatist terror organization that doesn't exist according to the US] as their brothers of faith, and it has the obligation to protect and shelter them".

Therefore, "they may not allow the ETIM to engage in anti-China activities on Afghan soil, but I'm afraid that handing over ETIM members to China would be difficult."

Chinese are the same wait and watch mode as every one else.

[Double Edge]

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"--Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.

[TopHatter]

I've heard similar reasoning made by one of my commentators.

Having control of the frame is different from having control of the aircraft.

That is the most profound statement I've seen in a long time. It sums up exactly what most people don't understand: Effectively operating even a rather basic aircraft for military purposes is a Pandora's Box of "ownership responsibilities" you have to deal with and none of that shit comes cheap.

Furthermore once you're in the air, there's no more hiding in hills and caves or blending in with the local population. You've just painted a gigantic bullseye on yourself.

[Double Edge]

Let's just call this a friendly heads up



https://twitter.com/MeghUpdates/stat...86690557612032

[zraver]

Post your donation trail here ___________. Then post him directing USAF to chose SNC in Florida here __________. While this stuff is pork you named a person so post direct proof of your claim first.

Sure no problem Faith Osman the owner of SNC is Reid's 5th biggest all time indivual donor.

https://publicintegrity.org/politics...tands-a-boxer/

[Double Edge]

I am not sure how Pakistan has escaped retaliation for so long. Was it fear of nuclear weapons and destabilizing the country? Or was it any residual loyalty and or inertia from the Cold war alliance? Or was it just a recognition that the US had limited options for reigning in Pakistan short of a war for which there was no political will or support.

The US already tipped over two states. Tipping over a third ?

I think the US already accepted long back that this was going to be the outcome. This strategic win does not seem to be on the cards no matter how much we want it to be.

Blinken said US attained its objectives. What were they ? GWOT

Get Bin Laden and decimate AQ. Then they went after IS and got Bagdadi.

So in terms of objectives US believes they've achieved them. Despite Pakistan.

Some say they fought the wrong war in the wrong place, instead of Afghanistan they should have gone for Pakistan, instead of Iraq they should have come for Iran.

What is feasible and what isn't.

People advocate for sanctions and imposing a NFZ over Pakistan should things deteriorate in the future.

So just because Pakistan appears to have escaped unscathed this time does not mean they have lifelong immunity.

eg. Does Pakistan expect to get out of the grey list this decade ?