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  • #31
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    And why you do think BJP won't get a majority in 2019
    As of today there are 2 reasons. Demo & GST.

    #1. Demonetization - The happiest were the middle class and to an extent the upper middle class who have their taxes deducted at source. In the poor class, there are two sections. One that is the daily laborer and small farmers etc, who were initially happy about demo, that the corrupt lost money. The other class, which is quite significant are the tens of millions of MSM (micro, small, medium) businesses in every nook, corner and metros of India. They too were happy. But, post demo, business went down, farmers couldn't sell produce nor pay for labor charges as well as buy stuff. Produce rotted in fields, and those that made it to the market, sold for less than the growing expense. The buying stuff affected me too in a way, but it got sorted within a week due to priority banking. The poor were not so lucky.

    #2. GST - The happiest were the big MNCs, established business houses. But this again hit the MSM enterprises, and they represent the bulk of employment generation and a huge share of GDP.

    And I am not even talking about the beef ban, whose effects will be felt over time with both job losses and revenue generation. Many will say, BJP doesn't need Muslim votes, I disagree. Not all Muslims follow the herd mentality. For e.g., the pro-business Bohra comunity, who openly supported Mr. Modi as PM.

    Both were good intentions which were very poorly executed and unfortunately both ended up hurting mostly the poor. This is the chatter, now.

    Now, I said less than 260 seems more likely. The chatter will get clearer 9-10 months before the elections, as IB deputed to States get involved to understand the mood of the people and report it back to Delhi.

    And below is the math.

    How many farmers does India really have?

    India's Poverty Profile

    Google Aims To Get India's 51 Million Small Businesses Online With Its New Digital Unlocked Program

    That is a significant number of people, and since elections are not that close, public mood can change. The poor might finally come to terms as something good was done and a little hurt was to be expected, which in turn depends upon the foot soldiers i.e., the karyakartas, effectively communicating with the masses.
    Last edited by Oracle; 21 Nov 17,, 17:24.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!


    • #32
      So if I understood you, the poor class, the middle class and upper middle class ALL have an axe to grind with the BJP ? or is it just the poorer classes