Game Changer: India Tests K-15 SLBM From Bay Of Bengal

[Double Edge]

Congratulations. You've just reached my A-HA moment followed by my WOW moment.

What I found amazing is that the Indian Officers here seems to take these concepts like duck to water and I'm struggling through it. I wish there was a course on this.

You've already given us the basics here over the years. A few simple rules that can then be applied to different situations and countries.

If one were to compile a list of your posts in the contexts they were expressed in then i think there exists already a pretty good introductory course on the subject.

To go beyond will require cleverly crafted case studies & what-if scenarios to apply the basics.

[Double Edge]

China and India are also champions of the Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty. The treaty is in limbo because of Pakistan whose position is that it is unfair for her to have by far the smallest stock of any of the NWS.

That is curious because the only response available to counter an adversarial conventional imbalance is to increase nukes. That is to say if further assistance from either of the big two is not forthcoming. I think a powerful incentive to opt for nukes in the first place is in response to an impossible conventional imbalance.

But there is no limit to conventional superiority set for the americans or russians. Technology is their only limit.

So why would China or India want to limit their options.

If the US appears too powerful to China then unless China can come up with a conventional counter their last remaining option would be to increase their nukes which then has a knock on effect on India & Pakistan.

This is known as crisis instability, a term i'm still trying to grasp.

But if there are real limits to how far China & India can go with nuke production then it helps to limit what the US & Russia already have. If China & India are advocating fissile material cut off then they are both in fact stating they will not become war fighting powers.

[Doktor]

Been following this deterrence line of thinking for a while. Can i return you fast backwards?

How can you deter someone if you don't have the ordnance or at least have someone with ordnance to watch your back?

So para bellum is not out the loop or I seriously miss something.

[Double Edge]

How can you deter someone if you don't have the ordnance or at least have someone with ordnance to watch your back?

Oil producing gulf arabs don't need nukes.

They have outsourced their deterrence to the americans.

Israel is in the same boat for different reasons.

[Doktor]

If that's the case western Europe invented deterrence first.

[Firestorm]

China and India are also champions of the Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty. The treaty is in limbo because of Pakistan whose position is that it is unfair for her to have by far the smallest stock of any of the NWS.

There were several articles in recent times suggesting that Pakistan's arsenal is larger than India's and may even cross 200 warheads soon. It is still possible that India has a lot of unused fissile material left over that can be used to bridge the gap, but Pakistan seems to be in no danger of falling behind as far as the size of their arsenal is concerned, anytime soon.

[Officer of Engineers]

How can you deter someone if you don't have the ordnance or at least have someone with ordnance to watch your back?

So para bellum is not out the loop or I seriously miss something.

It's a hard concept.

Deterrence through war fighting is "don't start or I will kill you." Doesn't matter if I die, I will kill you.

Deterrence through Rie/Sundarji is "don't start, you can't win." All you have to do is to show the other guy can't win. You don't have to kill him, just show him he can't win.

If that's the case western Europe invented deterrence first.

It's along the lines what's the easiest way to take a castle? A donkey loaded with gold.

There were several articles in recent times suggesting that Pakistan's arsenal is larger than India's and may even cross 200 warheads soon. It is still possible that India has a lot of unused fissile material left over that can be used to bridge the gap, but Pakistan seems to be in no danger of falling behind as far as the size of their arsenal is concerned, anytime soon.

Pakistan is going for the more numerous but smaller yield arsenal (~10-12 kt). India's arsenal is going for the 30-60 kt yield. Six of one, half dozen of the other.

[Officer of Engineers]

You've already given us the basics here over the years. A few simple rules that can then be applied to different situations and countries.

If one were to compile a list of your posts in the contexts they were expressed in then i think there exists already a pretty good introductory course on the subject.

To go beyond will require cleverly crafted case studies & what-if scenarios to apply the basics.

I'm being lazy in my old age. I like someone else who has thought this through to explain things to me instead of me going about figuring things out.

For example, how does boomers fit into the concept? I have a working hypothesis but it's taking an effort to think things through.

Don't be so harsh to yourself. You have walked us through many of the dark alleys when we seemed to be totally lost.

Give yourselves some credit too, Major. Without you and the good Captain Lemontree who keep asking questions and challenging my position, we would not have figure a lot of things out. Do recall that it was you and I who first discover that Indira Ghandi was pissed off at Nixon, not Mao when she exploded her nuke. That was you and me arguing about the significance of the Chinese and the ENTERPRISE incident.

[Doktor]

It's a hard concept.

Tell me about it, you struggled more, I am about to start.

Deterrence through war fighting is "don't start or I will kill you." Doesn't matter if I die, I will kill you.

Deterrence through Rie/Sundarji is "don't start, you can't win." All you have to do is to show the other guy can't win. You don't have to kill him, just show him he can't win.

The only difference I see, is you should show your opponent you can reach stalemate. Therefor, his side won't win.

It's along the lines what's the easiest way to take a castle? A donkey loaded with gold.

I was just pointing the obvious. Adding 3rd party to the equation - like China, West Europe and Israel did with the Americans behind.

At the moment China seems alone. What's her deterrence against Russians or Americans? Mutual interest or her weapons?

Moreover, what's Indian deterrence against let's say USA?

[Albany Rifles]

Sir, regarding boomers. The Trident IIs can hold 12 MIRV warheads but are limited to treaties (START, etc) to no more than 4 each loaded.

So that's 4 x 24 x 14 for 1344 warheads.

So there are 2 questions to ask....at least for the US;

1. Would we breech the treaties and increase the MIRVs per missile to act as a deterrent?

2. What about the Tomahawks? They are capable of carrying the W80....and they can be carried on a hell of lot more platforms than just an SSGN. They are only not mounted by treaty.

So looking at 1. and 2. letting it "leak" that we are increasing warheads could act as a deterence as well.

As for NORK ICBMs.....there is a very good reason why the JNSDF Kongos and Atagos are identical in many ways to the Burkes....and both can use the Standard SM3 Block 1A ABM.

And nothing says we couldnt/wouldnt sell PATRIOT PAC-3 to India....its already in Taiwan and Japan.

[Firestorm]

And nothing says we couldnt/wouldnt sell PATRIOT PAC-3 to India....its already in Taiwan and Japan.

India tried acquiring the Israeli Arrow-2 ABM system. We even got a couple of the long range Green Pine radars used in the Arrow-2. But the US blocked that sale (the Arrow contains American parts) and then offered the Patriot (indirectly confirming that the Arrow-2 was superior to the Patriot). India declined and went ahead with its indigenous ABM project. The Green Pines came in handy, especially during the initial stages.

[Firestorm]

Pakistan is going for the more numerous but smaller yield arsenal (~10-12 kt). India's arsenal is going for the 30-60 kt yield. Six of one, half dozen of the other.

Considering the extreme population densities in subcontinental cities, the yield of the warheads should not impact the quality of deterrence. From India's point of view 200 12kt warheads is as bad as 200 50kt warheads. IMHO of course.

[Officer of Engineers]

Tell me about it, you struggled more, I am about to start.

Well, be prepared for both you and me to get a few things wrong. For instance, I had thought survivability was an absolute requirement but Rie didn't think so. He was well prepared to lose his entire the nuclear arsenal than to launch them before he lost them. In other words, he would rather lose them than to use them.

The only difference I see, is you should show your opponent you can reach stalemate. Therefor, his side won't win.

All you have to do is to raise doubt, not to prove the other side can win. I've been wracking my brain for years, what gives the Chinese the confidence that their arsenal could survive a nuclear first strike from the Americans. Add to this, the ABM shield, and the Chinese would have to increase their arsenal to at least 600 warheads delivered by missiles to have any retallitory effect.

They have not done so. And just counting nuclear missile batteries, those units with a dedicated nuclear mission, they may have added 30 warheads ... and that is counting one warhead per missile. Since the warheads are not mated and the Chinese have thus far only trained on retallitory missions (ie, their exercises always starts with receiviing nuclear hits, then, proceed to determine what survived and what has not. Then, they mate warhead to missile and launch), they may even get by with fewer warheads.

It was Gen Sundarji who gave me the answer. If you have to toss a nuke, your deterrence has failed. AHA!!!!! The whole point of all of this is to NOT TO HAVE TO TOSS A NUKE. It defeats the purpose of deterrence. So, you do everything in your power NOT to invite a nuclear strike ... and that includes forcing the Americans to attack you before you have a chance to launch.

So, in essence, all you have to do is to raise doubt that the enemy can take out all your nukes before you can toss them back. Just raise doubt.

I was just pointing the obvious. Adding 3rd party to the equation - like China, West Europe and Israel did with the Americans behind.

We'll explore this some other time. Just keep it in mind. As you can see, there is a hell of a lot of thinking going on. Trying to see actions and why the Chinese did what they did. The Chinese nuclear forces are the only nuclear force in history to disobey their NCA.

At the moment China seems alone. What's her deterrence against Russians or Americans? Mutual interest or her weapons?

Being nowhere close to a nuclear threshold.

Moreover, what's Indian deterrence against let's say USA?

Again, no nuclear threshold.

So looking at 1. and 2. letting it "leak" that we are increasing warheads could act as a deterence as well.

As for NORK ICBMs.....there is a very good reason why the JNSDF Kongos and Atagos are identical in many ways to the Burkes....and both can use the Standard SM3 Block 1A ABM.

And nothing says we couldnt/wouldnt sell PATRIOT PAC-3 to India....its already in Taiwan and Japan.

Who are you trying to deter? Except for the Russians, everybody else is lining up their nukes in the low hundreds (and the bottom half of the list is in the mid to low tens. The Iranians and the NORK are in single digits) against the American thousands.

Considering the extreme population densities in subcontinental cities, the yield of the warheads should not impact the quality of deterrence. From India's point of view 200 12kt warheads is as bad as 200 50kt warheads. IMHO of course.

It states their target list which is not cities. A 12 kt attack on a city of concrete and cement is about 10 square blocks. Still a freaking disaster but not unrecoverable.

[Albany Rifles]

Colonel, I was suggesting to be a countering force to calm down things if it looked bad....because I truly believe if China launches for whatever reason they will toss a few at Guam and Hawaii. The US will counter launch...as will Russia. Maybe I am pessimistic.

As for selling Patriot sales? Different times call for different solutions. What was decided in the past could change...ask Poland.

[Officer of Engineers]

Colonel, I was suggesting to be a countering force to calm down things if it looked bad....because I truly believe if China launches for whatever reason they will toss a few at Guam and Hawaii. The US will counter launch...as will Russia. Maybe I am pessimistic.

Dok, this is exactly what I mean. To date, we have not seen a Chinese nuclear attack exercise; only retallitory ... and yet, we have an American Major who pictured the worst ... even though it is the Chinese nuclear arsenal that is the most vulnerable of all the N5 and it is recessed, ie warheads not mated to rockets.

Do you see Rie/Sundarji at work here?

Buck, history, doctrine, and training profile says the Chinese would rather lose their nuclear arsenal than to use it. Field Marshall Rie disobeyed Lin Biao when Lin Biao ordered rockets fueled, warheads mated, and a hair trigger. Lin Biao feared a Soviet attack on the eve of a Soviet Secretary General visit.