Game Changer: India Tests K-15 SLBM From Bay Of Bengal

[Guest]

It was Gen Sundarji who gave me the answer. If you have to toss a nuke, your deterrence has failed. AHA!!!!! The whole point of all of this is to NOT TO HAVE TO TOSS A NUKE. It defeats the purpose of deterrence. So, you do everything in your power NOT to invite a nuclear strike ... and that includes forcing the Americans to attack you before you have a chance to launch.

So, in essence, all you have to do is to raise doubt that the enemy can take out all your nukes before you can toss them back. Just raise doubt.

Sir, in a way this reminds me of that fictional empty fort strategy in Romance of the three kingdoms but with some subtle differences. The moment the enemy steps into the fort the defender has failed because you have failed to create enough doubt in your enemy.

Makes me think that if the Chinese and Indians can get away with making it seem they are still a nuclear threat but without having nukes, they will throw away their nukes into the sea overnight.

[Doktor]

Colonel,

What is the purpose for Chinese nuclear arsenal if everyone knows they wont use it?

[Albany Rifles]

Colonel,

Thanks for the education. Obvious an area where your expertise far outstrips mine.

I guess I am still too much of a Cold Warrior and will ALWAYS live in fear of the nuclear repurcussions. I guess too much time spent in NATO and staring across the IGB and German/Czech border as well as being stationed dead smack in the middle of the Pershing brigade tends to give one a certain view.

I'll curb by doomsday gloom and try to learn!

Thanks

[Officer of Engineers]

What is the purpose for Chinese nuclear arsenal if everyone knows they wont use it?

What do you mean everyone knows? It took me 40 years of China watching. In the last ten when I first learned of China not mating warheads to missiles, I thought it was a survival tactic. Warhead and rockets are two seperate targets requiring two different set of attack. It was only that last 4-5 that I discovered Sundarji that only then Rie started to make sense.

I was very much like Major Albany Rifles, even 5 years ago that China's NFU policy was nothing but a ploy and that come any war, the Central Military Commission would be a prime target. It also happened to be their National Command Release Authority. I was very much under the impression that the CMC would release the nukes to their sub-ordinate 2nd Artillery Force so that they could continue the fight.

But certain things came to light. The 2AF started raising conventional missile batteries. Even ICBM conventional batteries. The much talked about DF-21 carrier killer is in fact, a battlefield weapon, tasked to the Army along with 2AF personnel, ie they answer to Army command ... and the Army is never part of the nuclear chain of command.

Then came arbituaries of 2AF conventional weapons officers, not nuclear. It was then that I learned how frustrated 2AF officers were with the CMC on nuclear release. The CMC would not even release training codes during exercises. It got to a point where the 2AF said screw it, they use conventional warheads and devised salvo barrage to replace a nuke. Now, they would hit you with 5 rockets, each with a 500lb bomb, on a single target. That's equivilent effective damage of a small nuke.

Look at even the Indian members here. How many are ignorant of Sundarji? Major Deltacamelately and Captain Lemontree understood Sundarji's thoughts because they were trained in his methodologies (I am envious). But me? It took a hell of a lot of hard work and even now, not all things make sense (Chinese and Indian boomers for one).

The short answer is few people knows ... and even fewer believes.

[Doktor]

So, basically, China owning nukes is a big bluff?

What if the bluff is called? What if China gets nuked?

Or India for that matter.

[Officer of Engineers]

So, basically, China owning nukes is a big bluff?

What if the bluff is called? What if China gets nuked?

Or India for that matter.

The bluff was called. The Sino-Soviet Border War. Lin Biao ordered warheads mated, rockets fuelled, and prepared for launch. Field Marshall Rie disobeyed the order, left the warheads unmated and the rockets unfuelled. And the Chinese Army withdrew 100 miles from the border.

[Deltacamelately]

So, basically, China owning nukes is a big bluff?

What if the bluff is called? What if China gets nuked?

Or India for that matter.

India never approached the threshold.

[Double Edge]

In 2011, Carnegie got together 50 experts on India & China, put them in a room and had them talk to each other.

China and India’s Nuclear Posture and Practice | Jun 2011 | Carnegie Tsingua

Unfortunately there is no transcript or audio of this meeting.

We then get another meeting at the end of July where one of the moderators summarises what was dicsussed at the June meet.

Understanding Sino-Indian Nuclear Dynamics | July 2011 | Carnegie Tsinghua

Only audio available but a worth a listen.

Next, there was another talk on the same subject in October last year.

The China-India Nuclear Crossroads | Oct 2012 | Carnegie Tsinghua

Audio availaible for this one and also a good listen.

I found Ashley Tellis comments in both meets to be very good.

This Oct 2 talk makes references to some comments made at a talk a day earlier

The Future of Deterrence in South Asia | Oct 1 2012 | Carnegie Tsinhua

Unfortunately no audio or transcripts available for this one :|


These meets culminated in a book by carnegie on the subject.

[Doktor]

Thanks DE,

I have found the book on scribd.

[zraver]

The bluff was called. The Sino-Soviet Border War. Lin Biao ordered warheads mated, rockets fuelled, and prepared for launch. Field Marshall Rie disobeyed the order, left the warheads unmated and the rockets unfuelled. And the Chinese Army withdrew 100 miles from the border.

China did have the advantage of the US nuclear posture that limited the Soviet ability to strike without US permission...

[Officer of Engineers]

The Chinese didn't know that and the Americans certainly weren't going to tell them ... and I seriously doubt the Americans would have stopped the Soviets if the Chinese launched first.

[zraver]

The Chinese didn't know that and the Americans certainly weren't going to tell them ... and I seriously doubt the Americans would have stopped the Soviets if the Chinese launched first.

Sir, the Chinese did not know explicitly, but surely did implicitly. Since any Soviet use above the tactical manned bomber level would require the US to be forewarned or risk the US thinking it was a general attack. This was during a period when US bombers were always in the air armed with nukes waiting on orders to begin their penetration runs. The Sino-Soviet Border war is after the Cuban Missile Crisis and the resulting non-provocation agreement between the 2 super powers.

[Officer of Engineers]

On the Sino-Soviet border? American radar would have told them that Soviet bombers were not going to North America or even Japan.

And I've met a Chinese Officer from that period who served in the General HQ. They were convinced that the Soviets were going to attack. Just did not know when.

[zraver]

On the Sino-Soviet border? American radar would have told them that Soviet bombers were not going to North America or even Japan.

And I've met a Chinese Officer from that period who served in the General HQ. They were convinced that the Soviets were going to attack. Just did not know when.

No, we would not have been able to detect manned tactical bombers. But any missile launch would have needed American approval lest the IR signature spark WWIII.

[Officer of Engineers]

No, we would not have been able to detect manned tactical bombers. But any missile launch would have needed American approval lest the IR signature spark WWIII.

There is no such thing as launch on warning. That was fiction used by the anti-nuclear people to scare the populace into demanding unilateral disarmament. It has been always launch on impact.