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Trump loses his re-election bid and America takes a left turn

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  • tbm3fan
    replied
    Does this mean that tax cuts, which lead to greater investment, which leads to greater job creation, which leads to greater tax receipts, and which leads to lower deficits is a fairy tail?

    Why those rascally Republicans. I knew something didn't add up these last 50 years.

    Definitely brings my mistake to the forefront. Had I continued down the road to billionaire status I would see the benefits to all that and wouldn't be here now especially with that Boston fan. Go Yankees...!

    Leave a comment:


  • Albany Rifles
    replied
    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    the economic growth is the only thing keeping him and the GOP alive...but 50-60% chance of a recession come 2020.

    the last bits of the old centrist in me still can't believe the deficits piece. all the predictions about five years back or so had -this- period of time being the last period of deficit reduction before the baby boomers began to retire en masse and start to take benefits. the fact that our deficit is expanding at the same rate now (when unemployment is 1-1.5% lower than predicted) as it was in 2009 (when it unemployment was going through the roof) is truly an accomplishment to behold.
    Well all those figures from 5 years ago weren't factoring a $1.3 Trillion irresponsible tax cut, were they?

    Leave a comment:


  • astralis
    replied
    Thankyou. The deficit is not falling I presume is your concern? I understand some economists are also predicting a downturn too in the next year and I read Global manufacturing PMI is negative.

    I am not sure myself if it matters if you increase a deficit a little as long as you spend it wisely; not just in giving those who benefited most by the 2008/9 bailouts new tax cuts.
    it's not that much of a concern to me as it was back when I was a centrist, TBH. it's clear to me now that debt viability is intimately connected to the structure of the governmental system itself.

    IE, even as US debt increases, the US is still relatively more advantaged than the decentralized EU market or the opposite Chinese market rife with CCP interference.

    debt is a problem, yes, but in terms of seriousness there's easily a double handful of problems that pose bigger issues for the US.

    I am not sure myself if it matters if you increase a deficit a little as long as you spend it wisely; not just in giving those who benefited most by the 2008/9 bailouts new tax cuts.
    yup. the tax cut was an enormous waste of money, stimulating the economy when it didn't -need- to be stimulated. does nothing for the long-term economic issues that the US faces, such as ailing physical infrastructure or the relatively inefficient US technological infrastructure.

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  • snapper
    replied
    Thankyou. The deficit is not falling I presume is your concern? I understand some economists are also predicting a downturn too in the next year and I read Global manufacturing PMI is negative.

    I am not sure myself if it matters if you increase a deficit a little as long as you spend it wisely; not just in giving those who benefited most by the 2008/9 bailouts new tax cuts.

    Leave a comment:


  • astralis
    replied
    snapper,

    Could you expand - explain in more detail what you mean by the economics of that?
    conservatives like to attack Obama's record on the deficit.

    however, most of the Obama-era deficit arose because of the Great Recession. tax receipts fell as unemployment went up, automatic stabilizers-- pre-Obama mandated spending, such as unemployment insurance/benefits-- went up. (Obama's biggest piece of new spending was the stimulus, approximately $787 billion.)

    Trump, on the other hand, inherited a booming economy. the unemployment rate has fallen to lows not seen since 1969. that means the tax base is larger than ever, and fewer people are using automatic stabilizers than before. this is why analysis from a few years ago predicted that both the US deficit and debt should be falling now. the deficit -was- falling at fairly substantial rates during Obama's second administration.

    yet the US deficit is increasing at almost the same rate as it was in the depths of the Great Recession-- even with better than expected economic growth!

    EDIT:

    here's the CBO prediction of US debt in April 2014.

    Click image for larger version

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    here's the CBO prediction of US debt in January 2019.

    Click image for larger version

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    we have already hit the level of debt (78% of GDP) that the 2014 CBO predicted we would hit in 2024.

    and again, that's with better than expected economic growth.
    Last edited by astralis; 02 Jul 19,, 20:15.

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  • snapper
    replied
    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    the last bits of the old centrist in me still can't believe the deficits piece. all the predictions about five years back or so had -this- period of time being the last period of deficit reduction before the baby boomers began to retire en masse and start to take benefits. the fact that our deficit is expanding at the same rate now (when unemployment is 1-1.5% lower than predicted) as it was in 2009 (when it unemployment was going through the roof) is truly an accomplishment to behold.

    Could you expand - explain in more detail what you mean by the economics of that?

    Leave a comment:


  • astralis
    replied
    So now we've got a record deficit and an economy that's just begging for a straw to drop on its back.
    the economic growth is the only thing keeping him and the GOP alive...but 50-60% chance of a recession come 2020.

    the last bits of the old centrist in me still can't believe the deficits piece. all the predictions about five years back or so had -this- period of time being the last period of deficit reduction before the baby boomers began to retire en masse and start to take benefits. the fact that our deficit is expanding at the same rate now (when unemployment is 1-1.5% lower than predicted) as it was in 2009 (when it unemployment was going through the roof) is truly an accomplishment to behold.

    Leave a comment:


  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Joe,

    Regarding the economy...

    Heard this on NPR last night. Now, I'm not an economist, but I have stayed at a few Holiday Inn Expresses in my day and this does not bode well for Fat Nixon regarding the economy as an issue to run on.

    https://www.npr.org/2019/06/30/73747...reason-to-worr
    Oh yeah absolutely. I've always contended, and it's been said elsewhere, that Trump inherited an economy that was humming along.
    All he had to do was step back and let it do its thing for the most part. A tweak here and there, certainly. But otherwise simply be a good steward and watchful for problems.

    But no, this is Trump the really stable genius we're talking about. The deal-maker and business prodigy that managed to bankrupt three casinos... So, bring on the trade wars, tariffs, pretty much anything that will destroy a booming economy, he managed it...along with giving huge corporations a massive tax cut ("They'll bring the money back home!" Yeah...no, they didn't). So now we've got a record deficit and an economy that's just begging for a straw to drop on its back.

    Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    And as for Florida....I believe the AG of the State of New York will want a word with him and all of his spawn before he gets to retire to FLA...
    Yeah he'll be lucky to drop dead and let his mentally-retarded spawn take the rap for his crimes, because his twilight years are going to be hell on Earth, even without succumbing to Alzheimer's like his old man.

    He had his fun playing president...I have a feeling the bill is going to come due fairly soon.

    Leave a comment:


  • Albany Rifles
    replied
    Joe,

    Regarding the economy...

    Heard this on NPR last night. Now, I'm not an economist, but I have stayed at a few Holiday Inn Expresses in my day and this does not bode well for Fat Nixon regarding the economy as an issue to run on.

    https://www.npr.org/2019/06/30/73747...reason-to-worr

    And as for Florida....I believe the AG of the State of New York will want a word with him and all of his spawn before he gets to retire to FLA...

    Leave a comment:


  • TopHatter
    replied
    Opinion: Five reasons Trump won’t win in 2020

    Say one thing for senior citizenhood, as my own approacheth: You have time on your hands. Witness the crowd waiting for hours Tuesday outside Orlando’s Amway Center in the rain to hear a 76-minute speech containing nary a coherent thought. By a president who will lose the re-election campaign he kicked off last night.

    There. I said it. And, yes, I did refer to “President Hillary Clinton” in 2016, when I was ready to call that race.

    But I’ve got five reasons why Donald Trump is going to Florida for good in 2021. If you think they’re wrong, tell me why at @timmullaney on Twitter, or in the comments. If you cite 2016, remember Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million — and see the second reason, below.

    1. Everybody has already made up their mind about Trump — and his numbers stink
    Right now, Trump’s net approval rating is minus 8.5 percentage points in the RealClear Politics polling average. Fivethirtyeight.com says it’s minus 10, as 53% disapprove, 43% approve and 4% won’t say. That spread was first “achieved” in March 2017. Trump hasn’t narrowed it below nine since, Fivethirtyeight says.

    In other words, no one’s changing their minds about Trump. About 40% of us like his act, if only to “own the libs.” Everyone else? Nope.

    2. His state numbers are just as bad
    Oh, but the Electoral College! says Twitter, where confident young people educate me about their hero’s resilience in Midwestern battlegrounds where he snatched victory from popular-vote defeat in 2016. Thanks for that. Really.

    Like, in Michigan, where Morning Consult puts Trump’s net approval at minus 12? Trump’s Michigan numbers haven’t been green in 26 months. Morning Consult says he’s doing two points worse than in October, before Republicans lost two House seats there and the governorship.

    Trump’s polling in Wisconsin? He’s minus 13. In Iowa, minus 12, and his party lost two of its three House seats.

    In Pennsylvania, birthplace of former Vice President and possible 2020 rival Joe Biden, Trump is minus 7, a point worse than last fall. Democrats won the generic House vote in Pennsylvania by 10 points.

    Just on those four, Trump’s 306 2016 electoral votes fall to 254 (270 needed to win) and it’s over. But as many as 215 Trump electoral votes could be in play, based on state-by-state polls.

    Yes, early polling isn’t great on head-to-head matchups. But the relationship between late-first-term presidential approval and re-election prospects is pretty close — if it changes, an intervening recession, war or economic boom explains why. This brings us to….

    3. Trump isn’t getting credit for the economy — and he won’t, either [This is for all of you "I don't like Trump but I love what's he's done with economy" dreamers - TH]
    When the unemployment rate goes to 3.6% from 10%, the guy who came along at 4.7% doesn’t get the credit.

    Trump’s whole case on the economy is that he should.

    But wage growth — already unexceptional — is slowing. So is job growth, at a year-to-date monthly average 26% below 2015, the third year of the last presidential term. Manufacturing job growth has slowed too.

    The stock market (Trump’s favorite indicator) has stalled — the Standard & Poor’s 500 index SPX, +0.58% and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.28% have bounced around, driven by Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff wars. The Dow peaked in January 2018, the S&P last September.

    That we are back near the peaks shows only that the Federal Reserve has taken the wheel, moving toward more interest-rate cuts. It’s not confidence in Trump. Twitter’s ranter-in- chief turns it off to coolly assess economics, and economics alone? Sure.

    4. He’ll keep screwing up
    Right now, Trump’s meandering toward armed conflict with Iran. But wartime leadership requires trust, not telling 10,796 lies in office, Trump’s count according to The Washington Post last week.

    That means Trump either climbs down (again) from his latest pseudo-crusade, or tries war without public support. Neither makes him more popular.

    Next, he’s throwing himself a July 4 rally at the Lincoln Memorial — nothing tacky there. Trump will salute Abraham Lincoln’s second inaugural, and the anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg, offering charity toward none and malice for nearly all. Stories about his lack of respect will follow as night follows day.

    Then he’ll mess with trade again, making your portfolio more volatile. Open more barbed-wire refugee camps. Lose some of their kids. Blow off subpoenas, keeping investigations of his inauguration, foundation, taxes and Russian influence alive. He even says he’ll try another Obamacare repeal bill, after 2017’s failures handed Democrats the House.

    All winners.

    5. Hillary’s not running — neither is Hunter Biden
    The reason Trump is president is Clinton’s e-mail scandalette. That and her family’s history of diving for dollars, even taking $675,000 for Hillary’s speeches at Goldman Sachs.

    But who’s he gonna chant lock ‘em up about this time?

    Of the Democratic candidates, Elizabeth Warren’s well off — she wrote books, her husband has a good job, and their house is worth five times its 1995 purchase price. All legit. Bernie Sanders became a millionaire through book sales, begrudgingly. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper ran brew pubs. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has simple finances; he works, and his husband teaches at a Montessori Academy. Biden, who has unfortunately been cashing in on speeches too, made his tax returns public during his vice presidency and surely will publish his 2016-2019 returns.

    Not a lobbyist with his hand out, or foreign potentates staying in their hotels, to be found. Let alone a multi-year tax fraud, as asserted in Trump’s case.Trump wants to make hay about Biden’s son’s businesses, but his own son-in-law met with potential lenders to his real estate business — in the White House. That dog won’t, ahem, Hunter.

    Enjoy Mar-a-Lago, Mr. President. Wait! You don’t want Florida? Here’s a sixth reason you’re going south.

    In this life, not the next. That’s another column.

    New Yorkers like you even less than Washington, so a cloister far from madding crowds is in order. You know the folks who would love you if you shot someone outside Trump Tower? They don’t live here.
    Link
    _______________

    While I agree with all of the points made, I still think that, thanks to the Democrat clown car of candidates, Trump has a very good shot at getting reelected...provided his dementia, the economy and/or Congressional investigations don't shank him like an inmate in the shower at Marion.

    Leave a comment:


  • Pnoy
    replied
    Any outcome that will result to increased immigration, as well as relaxation of immigration rules into the US is most welcome.

    Leave a comment:


  • montgomery
    replied
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    Hypothetical is the thread title.Everything that leads on from there is too
    This link applies to the Mueller investigation and consequently Trump's future.
    https://original.antiwar.com/danny_s...e-of-the-tape/

    But it leads to another half dozen questions and so I just thought you would be interested. No doubt that Major Danny is a loose cannon.

    Leave a comment:


  • Double Edge
    replied
    Originally posted by montgomery View Post
    In reference to the hypothetical that I left unanswered
    Hypothetical is the thread title.Everything that leads on from there is too

    Leave a comment:


  • montgomery
    replied
    In reference to the hypothetical that I left unanswered: You said:

    What troubles me is Russia looks at the US with hostile intent. For Russia to become great again is by pushing back at the US just for the sake of it and for no good reason. To do otherwise is to acquiesce to US dominance. If that is the case then reagardless of who is running the US, relations with Russia are going to be a pain.
    I'm of the opinion that Russia is doing nothing much more than standing it's ground. That on the Ukrkraine, Crimea, and Georgia.

    Venezuela asks for a more nuanced response from me. It can't be claimed that Russia is standing it's ground in S.America or C. America. I'm suggesting that Russia is standing it's alliance's ground as regards Venezuela's huge oil wealth.
    Last edited by montgomery; 07 Apr 19,, 02:29.

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  • montgomery
    replied
    [QUOTE=Double Edge;1050007]I don't have a position to argue on that. I just figured there might be a meeting of minds. It could well be wishful thinking too.

    A meeting of minds between China/Russia/the US? I think it's possible after Trump.

    With Russia i might even be contradicting myself. Before the cold war ended the Repubs were anti-Russia and Dems less anti-Russia.
    I assume you're suggesting that the cold war ended with the fall of the S.U., but I agree that your suggestion on which party was pro/con on Russia is correct.

    These days that balance has flipped. Whether its solely due to election meddling & collusion etc and therefore only temporary remains to be seen as opposed to ideological which means more enduring differences.
    I would suggest that it's temporary.

    So going by present behaviour, Trump means a less anti-Russia position. Anything else is more anti-Russia ? i don't know.
    Whatever the reasons for that, I'm of the opinion that it's true.

    What would Putin want ? Trump again or something else, that changes the equation from the other end now.
    Putin likes Trump but Trump is a wild card that can't be replaced. But Putin would obviously want a Bernie or Bernie like president as opposed to a Biden, I would suggest.

    I would love to see some rapprochement between the US & Russia as that simplifies things for others globally. A deeper cleavage however complicates things significantly.
    No doubt! But I wonder if the US is prepared to peacefully coexist alongside a very powerful China, or a powerful BRICS?

    What troubles me is Russia looks at the US with hostile intent. For Russia to become great again is by pushing back at the US just for the sake of it and for no good reason.
    And I would say that Russia knows the US is boss dog and would likely want to keep the peace. That is, within reason and on the condition that Russia can defend it's interests. I don't think that Russia wants the Ukraine, Georgia, or the Crimea, it just can't accept the US/Nato having them. And on Venezuela, Russia's interests and China's interests are oil, and that explains all.

    To do otherwise is to acquiesce to US dominance. If that is the case then reagardless of who is running the US, relations with Russia are going to be a pain.
    Yes. The US doesn't see Russia, it sees the S.U.



    Go ahead, this is one big hypothetical and will serve to understand the opposition's position. Should they take over. I'm hoping your positions will not be so far off the radical end that i could at least relate to them
    I've forgotten the context and will have to refer back. So later.


    I'm thinking the people that remained stagnant without any meaningful wage increases gives more weight to this.
    Suffice to say, my opinion is that ordinary Americans are being left behind. Trump promised to change that but Trump lied.

    Victimsed by globalisation & threatened by immigration. They will be a clamour for more state spending over military. I can't say whether this has happened under Trump.
    I would say you're right. But that really puts the lie to Trump's latest suggestion of less spending on the military. However, what Trump says is often the opposite of what he says the next day or next week.

    As for US being more aggressive i think the appetite for that ended ten years ago. The only place i see Trump sending troops is home and letting other powers fill their shoes or pull more of their weight. US will honour existing commitments but insist on more burden sharing. I don't think this is just Trump. There is a fatigue setting in and i can sense it even with members here so i use that to generalise for the rest of the US.
    I hear you. I've yet to be able to sense anything from the people on this forum. That is probably because I don't have the luxury of having something different to compare it with.


    This is the thing. A shift towards what Bernie represents isn't a return to the days before Trump. Imagine a pendulum at center, Trump comes in and it swings to one end. Now if Bernie comes in, the pendulum does not drop back to centre, instead, now it swings to the opposite end with attendant consequences for one and all.
    Yes! Bernie represents something completely foreign to US past political practice. And I think the American people are making the move and Bernie is just filling the need for leadership. But I suspect that some of the others are going to ride on his coattails very soon.

    Trump was tricky to figure out for the rest of the world. Bernie will be no less hard.
    I don't feel at any loss on figuring Trump out. And my opinion on Bernie or the copycats that rise up to steal his fire, will not be hard to figure. The American people are severely pissed off in my opinion.

    Thanks for your very reasoned and intelligent post! If I've left anything unanswered then please do pursue it further.

    Leave a comment:

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