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What if Hitler had come clean?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Yup, the Polish defense and defeat at the frontiers combined with German strategic air dominance and superior German, logisitical, tactical and strategic mobility meant Poland was doomed.
    No,it was not.Poland wasn't alone.Even if the French did nothing,the Germans still have to consider the Western front.They simply can't afford to hold it with 10 3d rate divisions indefinetely.
    While I agree with S2 the force ratio would still favor the Germans even if 20-25 German divisions are redeployed in the West,the terrain becomes more favorable to the Poles,while the force/space ratio also becomes more favourable for them.Even with their industrial base lost,they retreat towards their depots and along their LOC with the Western Allies.
    The German mechanized forces were spent at the time Poland surrendered.About 1/3 of their tanks were destroyed,although the bulk of the losses were Pz I&II.The rest was needing maintenance.The blitzkrieg is over,until the Germans can reconstitute.
    The idea is the Poles can hold for at least a couple more months in the S-E part of their country,even if the French do nothing.At the very least it means more German casualties and a lot more Polish troops evacuated to France&UK.At best,the Germans are in serious trouble.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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    • #17
      Coming back to the what-if question, it seems to me the emphasis on what actually happened in the wake of Poland's refusal to give in to Hitler's ultimatum is crucial to it. But the question remains, did the actual outcome of the invasion support or not support the contention that Poland would have been better off yielding to Hitler's ultimatum?
      To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Mihais View Post
        No,it was not.Poland wasn't alone.Even if the French did nothing,the Germans still have to consider the Western front.They simply can't afford to hold it with 10 3d rate divisions indefinetely.
        While I agree with S2 the force ratio would still favor the Germans even if 20-25 German divisions are redeployed in the West,the terrain becomes more favorable to the Poles,while the force/space ratio also becomes more favourable for them.Even with their industrial base lost,they retreat towards their depots and along their LOC with the Western Allies.
        The German mechanized forces were spent at the time Poland surrendered.About 1/3 of their tanks were destroyed,although the bulk of the losses were Pz I&II.The rest was needing maintenance.The blitzkrieg is over,until the Germans can reconstitute.
        The idea is the Poles can hold for at least a couple more months in the S-E part of their country,even if the French do nothing.At the very least it means more German casualties and a lot more Polish troops evacuated to France&UK.At best,the Germans are in serious trouble.
        The defeat of the Polish armies at the frontier and the complete dominance of Polish air space by the Luftwaffe meant it was all over. This problem was made worse by the Polish army deciding to fight in Warsaw where it was encircled and trapped.

        The Poles had about 250,000 troops in the east. The other half of the army was either already defeated or encircled. The low hanging fruit in terms of panzer losses had already been picked. A week or two pause for maintenance and then the blitz is back underway all the way to Romania. In the mean time, the foot sloggers and Luftwaffe can keep up the pressure so that the Polish army doesn't get the same breather.

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        • #19
          JAD,

          I've read opinions that say Hitler did not really want to mount a full scale invasion because the cost in men and material could crimp his plans for invading the USSR. Another opinion is that Hitler didn't want to provoke France and Britain into a war until he had subjugated the USSR. He also had visions, or should I say, fantasies, of a Europe dominated by Germany and Britain.
          hitler was actually pissed off that czechslovakia kowtowed. he -wanted- a war to solidify his standing at home, and he wanted a nice, small, one-front war against a country he could easily beat up.

          that's why his demands for poland were absolutely unacceptable.

          of course had he fought czechslovakia the Wehrmacht would have been in no shape to fight again by Sep 1939.
          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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          • #20
            Originally posted by astralis View Post
            JAD,



            hitler was actually pissed off that czechslovakia kowtowed. he -wanted- a war to solidify his standing at home, and he wanted a nice, small, one-front war against a country he could easily beat up.

            that's why his demands for poland were absolutely unacceptable.

            of course had he fought czechslovakia the Wehrmacht would have been in no shape to fight again by Sep 1939.
            And it's very likely he would have been arrested or assasinated before any fighting.
            Those who know don't speak
            He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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            • #21
              The Danzig ultimatums were nothing more than a diplomatic pretext for the German invasion of 1 September 1939. Hitler viewed it as an absolute necessity vis-a-vis Lebensraum.

              On 23 May 1939, in a statement to his generals while they were in the midst of planning the invasion of Poland, Hitler made it clear that the invasion would not come without resistance as it had in Czechoslovakia. Hitler explained to his officers that the object of the aggression was not Danzig, but the need to obtain German Lebensraum and details of this concept would be later formulated in the infamous Generalplan Ost.

              "With minor exceptions German national unification has been achieved. Further successes cannot be achieved without bloodshed. Poland will always be on the side of our adversaries... Danzig is not the objective. It is a matter of expanding our living space in the east, of making our food supply secure, and solving the problem of the Baltic states. To provide sufficient food you must have sparsely settled areas. There is therefore no question of sparing Poland, and the decision remains to attack Poland at the first opportunity. We cannot expect a repetition of Czechoslovakia. There will be fighting."
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland
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              • #22
                The way I understand original question is if there was chance for Hitler not to trigger WW2 by invading Poland.

                I think Goebels could have done it. It took Soviets 2 weeks to take their "fair share" and enter from the East. Preemptive. Commies... After all, still not one drop of blood was shed by the Allies. Remember that the protocols for division of Eastern Europe was still secret. Wonder how Stalin would have reacted to this.
                No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                  The way I understand original question is if there was chance for Hitler not to trigger WW2 by invading Poland.

                  I think Goebels could have done it. It took Soviets 2 weeks to take their "fair share" and enter from the East. Preemptive. Commies... After all, still not one drop of blood was shed by the Allies. Remember that the protocols for division of Eastern Europe was still secret. Wonder how Stalin would have reacted to this.
                  Couldn't happen. The anti-Nazi's and pro-Bolsheviks in the English government would have prevented it. Plus by Munich it was obviously that German re-armament had gone well past defensive needs and by Poland, the Munich agreement had already been abrogated by Germany. No one was buying it. Sadly for Poland, the German conquest and occupation of Austria and Czechoslovakia plus the German enclave around Konigsberg meant Germany had Poland surrounded on 3 sides. The Poles had no strategic depth and after the acquisition of Czech tanks by the panzerwaf it was all over as soon as Hitler said go.

                  Plus the German economy was about to collapse for lack of specie. The Reichsbank had seen most of its gold reserves used by the Nazi state to fund the re-armament and its socialist agenda. Hitler need war for the plunder it would bring.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Rimsey View Post
                    This may sound like a stupid question, but what would have happened if Hitler had come clean with the British and French regarding his invasion of Poland so that he could have a common boarder with the USSR? Would they have supported his invasion of Russia or would have things still have turned out as they historically did?
                    Question is incorrect, Hitler was not 100% for sure going to invade the Soviet Union in 1941 at the time hostilities started. War eventually? Sure. War right away? Not necessarily.

                    Also, it wasn't like it was a secret that Hitler would want to bitch slap the Soviets. He said quite clearly that he wanted to get rid of all the Slavs in his book and considered Communism to be a huge evil.

                    Plus, would YOU want to make a deal with that guy at that time? "Oh yeah, don't worry, I am going to attack the Russians next. PSYCHE!"
                    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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