War on the Korean Peninsula: Present-day

[Blademaster]

In the final analysis, it is the cost. To do what we need to do to eliminate the North Korean WMD threat, we have to destroy North Korea which means an immediate upfront and not a gradual financial cost to stabilize the country and bury their dead.

It's a humanitarian disaster no matter which way you look at it and Seoul will have to foot the cost.

Looks like that Seoul is hoping that Kim will turn out to be better than his father. What do you think of the posts suggesting that he can pull off a Deng move once he consolidate his power? So far, he is just mouthing off and moving a couple rockets, hardly a game changer but is making moves to off anybody who could challenge him.

I am curious, what makes NK so xenophobic? What would the regime have to do in order to go the Chinese way, i.e., keep the party in power but pull off economic reforms? Or the regime has to go because to do the economic reforms would mean thinking that the dynasty was the problem and has to go?

[chanjyj]

Or the regime has to go because to do the economic reforms would mean thinking that the dynasty was the problem and has to go?

This.

[Blademaster]

To get to the rockets, bio-chems, and nukes in time before they can launch, anything resembling civilization will be attacked and that means roads, bridges, assembly points, electrical plants, water and sewage treatment plants, TV stations, as well as direct military targets. You isolate large pockets of civilians from their sources of food, water, heat, and medical help, in fact, you isolate them period. And if they show any kind of resistance against oncoming units, they too will be attacked.

Basically, we're going to nuke North Korea without using nukes.

Sir I think that is overkill because any nuke or chem weapon that can be launched has to be launched on the first couple days. Once the first couple days are past, the momentum entirely belongs to SK and the NK would be totally on the defensive. The national command release authority would be broken up and too dispersed anyway to put together a coherent command. Once the NK field generals hear nothing coming out of Pyongyang, they would quickly do a cost and benefit analysis and if the SKs are smart enough to bribe the NK field generals with promises of cash and easy retirement and food/supplies for the starving troops, I am sure that the routes would easily open up.

[Blademaster]

This.

Then it would have to be a bloody and violent overthrow of the regime before economic reforms can take place. Does not bode well for the future of NK.

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir I think that is overkill because any nuke or chem weapon that can be launched has to be launched on the first couple days. Once the first couple days are past, the momentum entirely belongs to SK and the NK would be totally on the defensive. The national command release authority would be broken up and too dispersed anyway to put together a coherent command. Once the NK field generals hear nothing coming out of Pyongyang, they would quickly do a cost and benefit analysis and if the SKs are smart enough to bribe the NK field generals with promises of cash and easy retirement and food/supplies for the starving troops, I am sure that the routes would easily open up.

Or they can die in place.

The thing is that we cannot rely on their collapse. We have to destroy their system. We have to knock them off balance and keep them off balance and that means hit first, hit hard, and keep on hitting until they're out.

It's the same idea as hunting polar bears. You don't stop shooting until the bear stops moving. Overkill? Yes but you don't have a choice.

[Doktor]

What would be US home reaction for overkill?

[Blademaster]

Or they can die in place.

The thing is that we cannot rely on their collapse. We have to destroy their system. We have to knock them off balance and keep them off balance and that means hit first, hit hard, and keep on hitting until they're out.

It's the same idea as hunting polar bears. You don't stop shooting until the bear stops moving. Overkill? Yes but you don't have a choice.

Who was better prepared for war? Iraq in 1991 or NK of today? What about Iraq of 2003 and NK of today?

If the quieting down by America does not work and NK is hell bent on ratcheting up tensions, wouldn't America be better off by stationing a couple divisions' worth of equipment in SK for activation in case the crisis worsens and the Americans need to put down a large heavy force as you stated several days ago? Or is that too provocative to the Chinese?

[Officer of Engineers]

Revulsion.

[Officer of Engineers]

Who was better prepared for war? Iraq in 1991 or NK of today? What about Iraq of 2003 and NK of today?

Both are equal as far as paper is concerned. I would count on the NORKs to fight to the last man ... just as I did to the Iraqs before the Americans smashed into Kuwait. Their mass surrender was a very much a surprise to me but I would not count the same for the NORKs. I would expect their collapse once we got behind them but I don't expect it to be a small fight and there will be large pockets of resistance that will have to be killed just as we had to kill Basra.

If the quieting down by America does not work and NK is hell bent on ratcheting up tensions, wouldn't America be better off by stationing a couple divisions' worth of equipment in SK for activation in case the crisis worsens and the Americans need to put down a large heavy force as you stated several days ago? Or is that too provocative to the Chinese?

My RSM's point just got me thinking about all of this. I did not have time to think things through but the civilian casualties could not have escaped the planners (which is why I'm not one of them. This whole time, I was thinking strictly about their army, not about their civies). They must be as revolted as I am at the prospect of a million dead babies.

[Mihais]

Sir,the only danger I see in the Nork army is a Tadamichi Kuribayashi.
Otherwise,morale tends to drop fast if the training&equipment received is not up to task.

The issue of Iraq vs N Korea is a tricky one.the US is in a supportive role.The bulk of the fight will be caried by ROK regulars and reserves.
Overkill fear is a bit exagerated,IMO,fore the same reason.This is a Korean war.OPSEC will be very high.If it starts,I think we'll see a departure from the recent trend of sending a lot of info from the front.It's one thing to sell a colonial war,another to fight a real one.

[chanjyj]

Then it would have to be a bloody and violent overthrow of the regime before economic reforms can take place. Does not bode well for the future of NK.

In addition, their infrastructure is worse than China when it started the implementation of economic changes. I doubt even if the Kims are willing, they will be able to pull off any sort of economic reform. Resources are just not there.

[S2]

I don't see war. It's a Kabuki dance up north to elevate lil' Kim's stature among his own. South doesn't want a war which is a loser even if they "win". Everything from Seoul northward will likely be devastated. Good portions south of Seoul possibly as well.

Neither does China and America. Consolidation and reconstruction of the north and devastated portions of the south would be an epically huge undertaking. Everybody else fights (reluctantly) if the DPRK forces war upon them. That won't happen either. Nothing short of that will provoke war.

[Parihaka]

With the ICBM test being delayed for a month and it being made plain that it's in response to the North Koreans bellicosity Kim the Fat can now claim he's forced the Evil Americans to back down and ease off himself, victory in hand.

Whether he has the good sense to or not is yet to be seen....

[Pedicabby]

[Officer of Engineers]

Basically, we're going to nuke North Korea without using nukes.

Good Dear God! I've just realized what I said.