War on the Korean Peninsula: Present-day

[Dreadnought]

Theatening nuclear strikes on the US will no doubt fast track his regime to its eventual end. If we stop playing games with them and lay an ass whiping on them once and for all. Its either that or the game continues. The 28 year old has libraries to learn about threatening anyone with a nuclear strike and its consequences.

And this is where we SHOULD be pressuring China to relate a very direct and clear message since they could all become eventual Chinese immigrants.

[chanjyj]

That's just the problem: He'll continue pulling stunts like the Cheonan sinking and the Yeonpyeong bombardment...and the next time it happens, South Korea is likely going to lash back with some serious firepower.

And the North Koreans don't give a single shit about what the Chinese say as long as the aid keeps rolling in. And unless China wants to trigger a full-scale catastrophe, they'll keep sending it.

I believe the Chinese are coming to the end of the tether with NK.

[Bigfella]

I believe the Chinese are coming to the end of the tether with NK.

Which leads to the interesting question - what does that mean in concrete terms? Chna can turn the screws at whatever speed it chooses, but just what is it prepared to do & just what result might it bring? Will be curious to watch.

[Tennetc]

One way to know for sure if China is going to turn on NK is if china cancels the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty , or when 2021 comes (assuming todays NK is still there) and china does not renew this treaty.

Till the above happens, I don't think china will unilaterally make any move against NK, unless provoked(like NK finally making a nuke, attacking SK etc).

[Officer of Engineers]

Which leads to the interesting question - what does that mean in concrete terms? Chna can turn the screws at whatever speed it chooses, but just what is it prepared to do & just what result might it bring? Will be curious to watch.

I'm seeing the Chinese are at the end of the rope with baby Kim. They don't respect him and are about to give him a lesson on who's boss. Translation: they ain't going to ship him his Mercedes that he ordered.

They've already stopped his arms trade. North Korea have been shipping advice and blueprints. Actual rockets are off the market.

[TopHatter]

I'm seeing the Chinese are at the end of the rope with baby Kim. They don't respect him and are about to give him a lesson on who's boss. Translation: they ain't going to ship him his Mercedes that he ordered.

But otherwise it'll be business as usual?

[DPrime]

I keep hearing about Chinese fears of North Korean refugees. I must admit it's an angle I was completely unfamiliar with, but on that note, I have a couple of questions...

1. Would not China's main, long-term priority be maintaining a "buffer state" between its territory and South Korea (i.e. US military)? I would think this is more important to them than North Koreans coming across their borders, but maybe I'm missing something here...

2. Would not most refugees aim for South Korea instead? Other than the "party faithful", of course.

In a related vein, is there any possibility whatsoever that China would retaliate against US/Western action in North Korea? In a nutshell, is North Korea (whether they want to keep North Koreans out or maintain a buffer state, or whatever other reason they may have) worth going to war with the US, an important economic... well, if not "partner", then entity, I suppose you could call it. And that's only going to increase as time goes on.

For the matter (and I know I'm getting well off course now), is anything (e.g. Taiwan) worth a war between China and the US, from either country's perspective? Our economic interests are getting more and more intertwined... Seems like both sides have much more to lose than anything they could possibly gain. (Though I suppose one could make that argument for any war, to some degree.)

Of course I'm speaking about realistic possibilities, here. If China were to pull a Pearl Harbour on us, that would be worth retaliating, of course, but that would be very unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future. :)

[Red Team]

DPrime,

1. IMV the buffer state relationship between North Korea and China has been gradually declining because of greatly improved political and economic relations between Seoul and Beijing. Unlike the relationship with North Korea, China would potentially have more to gain from a long term economic standpoint (e.g., increased trade in high-end goods) if the Koreas were to be reunified under the ROK. However, this also presents the potential for a major US military presence right at China's doorstep. It all really depends if they willing to take the gamble that the latter will not happen. In which case, if the Chinese are more worried about maintaining a buffer, then North Korea may very well be the latest prospect for the newest province of the People's Republic.

2. Refugees would likely migrate to whatever border happens to be closer or more importantly, open.

Lastly, any military action between China and the US would significantly jeopardize the current global trade environment and would only serve to unnecessarily drain the resources of both sides. Never mind the potential for a nuclear weapons exchange if things got desperate.

[1979]

2. Would not most refugees aim for South Korea instead? Other than the "party faithful", of course.

They do aim for south korea, however the DMZ is actually very militarized , you can step on a mine or get shot , whereas in the north you can bribe the border guards .

[Doktor]

Unless you kill two of your superiors and just cross the border.

[Officer of Engineers]

1. Would not China's main, long-term priority be maintaining a "buffer state" between its territory and South Korea (i.e. US military)? I would think this is more important to them than North Koreans coming across their borders, but maybe I'm missing something here...

China, in the 80s and mid 90s, was actually envisioning a united Korea under Seoul and had began meetings with Seoul on seeking understanding of US forces in Korea. Kim Jung Il never forgave China for what he believed to be betrayal.

2. Would not most refugees aim for South Korea instead? Other than the "party faithful", of course.

If we're talking a self inflicted implosion, refugees would go where it is easiest to get food. Half would goto China, the other half south. If we're talking about war, it's always in the opposite direction of the fighting.

In a related vein, is there any possibility whatsoever that China would retaliate against US/Western action in North Korea? In a nutshell, is North Korea (whether they want to keep North Koreans out or maintain a buffer state, or whatever other reason they may have) worth going to war with the US, an important economic... well, if not "partner", then entity, I suppose you could call it. And that's only going to increase as time goes on.

China is not going to war for North Korea.

[USSWisconsin]

Yes, its from last year - but under the same Kim, it seems to add to the answer to "what's so special about NK?"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/vide...a-flames-video

Threats about "Seoul in flames " from their "cruel" towed artillery...

[Bigfella]

But otherwise it'll be business as usual?

Thats what I'm wondering - how far will China take it & what is it likely to do that will actually force the DRPK leadership to change course.

[Tennetc]

Thats what I'm wondering - how far will China take it & what is it likely to do that will actually force the DRPK leadership to change course.

I don't know about the chinese govs true position, but in chinese news, NK is never portrayed as rogue. Also to this day China still has not canceled the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty.I remember in 1979, the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance ended before china attacked vietnam(a soviet ally).So in my opinion,the unless we see this treaty canceled,I don't think China will do anything unilaterally against NK. China will response only agianst NK actions, the more bad NK actions have agianst China, the more severe the response, including war.We see this to be true now:

NK test nuke---china suspend some aid and move some military units to NK borders

NK test nuke 2nd time---china condeme NK in public

Nk test nuke 3rd time---china allow more UN sanction

If you think I am wrong, pls feel free to correct me

[Officer of Engineers]

I don't know about the chinese govs true position, but in chinese news, NK is never portrayed as rogue.

No, they're just portrayed as a bunch of illiterate peasants.

Also to this day China still has not canceled the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty.I remember in 1979, the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance ended before china attacked vietnam(a soviet ally).

The Sino-Soviet Treaty didn't stop the border clashes resulting in the border war of 1970s.