War on the Korean Peninsula: Present-day

[Officer of Engineers]

Sure. The Secret Police.

[Blademaster]

I don't understand South Korean thinking. Why can't they buy off the N. Koreans and convince them to surrender peacefully or encourage several elements in NK to initiate a coup de etat? If the Chinese can do it, why can't the SK?

[DPrime]

You're assuming complete devotion to Kim when in fact the North Korean army has been racked by mutinies and entire divisional staffs have been shot.

Do they need to be devoted to the new "dear leader", or just the system as a whole?

Certainly elements are not, but enough of the senior leadership and officer and NCO corps would be, I should think.

[Officer of Engineers]

I don't understand South Korean thinking. Why can't they buy off the N. Koreans and convince them to surrender peacefully or encourage several elements in NK to initiate a coup de etat? If the Chinese can do it, why can't the SK?

Nobody, not the Chinese, not the South Koreans, and certainly not the Americans want to be saddled with 25 million beggars.

Do they need to be devoted to the new "dear leader", or just the system as a whole?

It's a conscription system. Meaning that the soldiers are more loyal to their stomachs than to the system. One of the causes of mutiny was hunger.

Certainly elements are not, but enough of the senior leadership and officer and NCO corps would be, I should think.

The Chinese think that they can be inside the North Korean capital within 2 weeks. That can only happen if they have several North Korean corps in their pockets.

[DPrime]

It's a conscription system. Meaning that the soldiers are more loyal to their stomachs than to the system. One of the causes of mutiny was hunger.

The Chinese think that they can be inside the North Korean capital within 2 weeks. That can only happen if they have several North Korean corps in their pockets.

I am very hesitant to oversimplify matters regarding the North Koreans is all I'm saying... :)

[Officer of Engineers]

I am very hesitant to oversimplify matters regarding the North Koreans is all I'm saying... :)

Nothing about war is simple and unintended consequences abound left, right, and centre but we're not speaking about us. We're speaking about them, the NKs, and the simple fact is that they are not all that unified.

Mutinies and riots are testament to that.

[astralis]

The Chinese think that they can be inside the North Korean capital within 2 weeks. That can only happen if they have several North Korean corps in their pockets.

i wonder how long it'd take for the chinese to get to pyongyang even without making sure those corps look the other way.

[Albany Rifles]

They may be.Not by design,but by idiocy.The porky Kim is in his 20's.The generals that hold his hands look like they're going to the grave very soon.So Porky will be left with utter retards and sicophants.Porky,very likely,has no idea what's going on the world,nor in his own country.He looks like he lived in the ivory tower all his life.He also seems to enjoy it and I very much doubt he even scratched his hand in a tae-kwon-do training.A very dangerous mix for himself and his cronies.

Okay, suicide by stupidity then. Good points.

[Albany Rifles]

"...and entire divisional staffs have been shot."

Colonel, I recall when I was a company commander and battalion and brigade staff officer and thought this would be a great idea.

Then I became a division staff officer and it confirmed my thoughts.

And as you noted about the ROKs attacking northward....it was a little kept secret during the 1980s that an unwritten mission of the 2 ID and 8 US Army was to keep the South from going North.

[Stitch]

And as you noted about the ROKs attacking northward....it was a little kept secret during the 1980s that an unwritten mission of the 2 ID and 8 US Army was to keep the South from going North.

THAT would've been interesting; I wonder how far they thought they'd get without US assistance?

[Red Team]

I think this video is a good illustration of the North-South technological disparity.

[Blademaster]

Mutinies and riots are testament to that.

Haven't heard about them.

[Officer of Engineers]

Haven't heard about them.

Google North Korea riots mutiny. Undoubtedly, some are exaggerations and complete lies by dissidents but the sheer volume of claims point to something more sinister. The Chinese reported gunfire in Pyongyang during the famines.

[zraver]

If Kim pops his cork...

He can destroy Seoul in short order, nothing any does can prevent that. However that is all he can do. Depending on what he uses to burn Seoul, his own capitol is going to get pasted. If he plays dirty the US may well glass the city. If he plays "nice" and sticks to conventional artillery the US will still hit Pyongyang but it will be targeted strikes by B-2's and missiles.

The Chinese are going to play a different game. First move is seal the border to prevent refugees. Then or maybe at the same time seize certain border towns and crossings for the same reason and to prepare jump off points. They wont jump in early to avoid the appearance of being a US ally in the destruction of Chinese a client state. They wont actually invade until the UN forces cross the DMZ driving on Pyongyang for the UN political victory. That is when the PLA will move in to play peace maker. China wants a deal that keeps norks in Korea and gets the US off the peninsula. I think they'd even be willing to massively underwrite the rebuilding effort to see such a unification come about. It gets the only US staging area on the Asian mainland off of Asia. Removes Washington's pull with the RoK via a vis Japan and strengthens RoK/PRC ties at the cost of the US.

The US will be happy to go as the cost savings will be substantial. However they wont go until the ceasefire line is secured to prevent a massive invasion of the RoK by refugees that would collapse the Korean economy.

It will take the RoK 10-20 to rebuild the north. Not sure if there will be tribunals, or if SK will follow South Africa and Rwandas' examples of sweeping it under the rug in the name of reconciliation.

[Blademaster]

Zraver,

plan on 30 years, not 20 years to completely rebuild NK and it would be on the order of several trillion dollars, let's say 4 trillion. SK has to get its economy past the $2T mark in order to get through the rebuilding on its own otherwise China would completely dominate NK.