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War on the Korean Peninsula: Present-day

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  • YellowFever
    replied
    A Canadian Colonel gets up out of bed.

    He goes to the bathroom to take care of the mundane morning ritual.

    He yawns as he goes to the kitchen to pour himself a cup of coffe and realizes that he's hungry.

    He boots up the computer-hoping and hoping there's something there to satisfy his growing hunger.

    His eyes light up and he smirks.

    "Yes....the chew toy gods are generous....."
    Last edited by YellowFever; 12 Apr 13,, 19:01.

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  • SajeevJino
    replied
    Originally posted by Chogy View Post
    Count me among those who believe that pretty much every NK nuclear test has been a fizzle or failure.

    The likelihood that NK has bypassed the basic 15-25 KT design and gone straight to what we'd consider more advanced, miniaturized, low-yield devices, is about zero. Thus, they have not yet demonstrated that they can, in fact, construct a reliable, working nuclear device.

    In last Nuclear test the USGS Reported 4.2 magnitude of Earthquake ..So it may have greater yield than 25KT or may be a Thermonuclear device too


    A manned aircraft on a suicide mission would potentially do the job. Load the nuke on the centerline of a Su or MiG, place a big button in the cockpit, and tell the pilot to overfly Seoul at 800' and push the button. If he were part of a much larger strike package, he might get through. It is also possible that every jet in the package gets shot down, but Seoul's proximity to the DMZ would make this difficult.

    North Korea has 100 of old Soviet-era AN-2 biplanes . Invisible to radar because they are made of fabric and hug the earth..so well suit for Stealth Bomber Role

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  • Maeda Toshiie
    replied
    Originally posted by Chogy View Post
    Count me among those who believe that pretty much every NK nuclear test has been a fizzle or failure.

    The likelihood that NK has bypassed the basic 15-25 KT design and gone straight to what we'd consider more advanced, miniaturized, low-yield devices, is about zero. Thus, they have not yet demonstrated that they can, in fact, construct a reliable, working nuclear device.

    All this presupposes the latest test did not yield in the proper kilotonnage range for a standard "first" device. I've been very busy and have not kept up with the latest news.

    Now, with all that said, a missile is not required for delivery. A manned aircraft on a suicide mission would potentially do the job. Load the nuke on the centerline of a Su or MiG, place a big button in the cockpit, and tell the pilot to overfly Seoul at 800' and push the button. If he were part of a much larger strike package, he might get through. It is also possible that every jet in the package gets shot down, but Seoul's proximity to the DMZ would make this difficult.

    Note to membership: We need to be more careful with chew toys. We are like a dog, given a big rawhide bone, that shreds it immediately and gobbles it up. A better option is to savor it over time, with gentle chewing. ;)
    Chew toy spotted here:
    http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/eas...tml#post910741

    Leave a comment:


  • Chogy
    replied
    Count me among those who believe that pretty much every NK nuclear test has been a fizzle or failure.

    The likelihood that NK has bypassed the basic 15-25 KT design and gone straight to what we'd consider more advanced, miniaturized, low-yield devices, is about zero. Thus, they have not yet demonstrated that they can, in fact, construct a reliable, working nuclear device.

    All this presupposes the latest test did not yield in the proper kilotonnage range for a standard "first" device. I've been very busy and have not kept up with the latest news.

    Now, with all that said, a missile is not required for delivery. A manned aircraft on a suicide mission would potentially do the job. Load the nuke on the centerline of a Su or MiG, place a big button in the cockpit, and tell the pilot to overfly Seoul at 800' and push the button. If he were part of a much larger strike package, he might get through. It is also possible that every jet in the package gets shot down, but Seoul's proximity to the DMZ would make this difficult.

    Note to membership: We need to be more careful with chew toys. We are like a dog, given a big rawhide bone, that shreds it immediately and gobbles it up. A better option is to savor it over time, with gentle chewing. ;)

    Leave a comment:


  • chanjyj
    replied
    You know, if it was Kim Sr's grandson I would have agreed. But not fat boy.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bigfella
    replied
    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    Here's a rather far-fetched theory that occurred to me, please critique.

    Suppose Kim III (and his aunt and uncle?) are playing an even deeper game than we suspect...that he/they realize that Juche and Songun are not sustainable practices

    The (rather shaky) evidence:
    Our portly Young General was educated in the West so he's probably got some idea of the world outside the basketcase known as the Kim Family.
    I've read reports in the news that he has been quietly liberalizing certain aspects of the economy and NK life, however slightly.

    What if he intends to open NK up even more but must first secure his place of leadership:

    Domestically - Assure the military that "Yes, you're still Number One in the DPRK...for now" so they don't decide to remove his head from his neck

    and

    Internationally - Have a credible nuclear shield to prevent an external power from adding his name to list that includes Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein.

    This somewhat sudden headlong rush to field an ICBM/IRBM force would certain accomplish both goals in a single, albeit severely risky, stroke.

    What if this is all an attempt to eventual bring North Korea out of the darkness, even a little?

    Am I giving Fat Boy too much credit and he's simply doing what Daddy and Grandpa did best?
    Certainly as credible as anything I've heard & nice change from 'the fatboy is crazy' meme that is getting a bit tired. Kim's actions are rational....within a certain context. The problem is tha tnone of us know enough about how the place functions to work out just what the context is.

    Assuming he is doing this, it strikes me that one problem is the extent to which he is undermining his relationship with the nation he will most need to help him modernize - China. That strikes me as very risky. I can certainly buy an argument that he is too paranoid to let them in on the secret, but I do wonder if there is a risk of reaching a point where China has decided to permenantly downgrade rthe realtionship in favour of a more productive one (in every sense) with the ROK.

    That said, I like the lateral thinking.

    Leave a comment:


  • tbm3fan
    replied
    I always thought they were hiding lack of brains. The bigger the hat the more to hide as compared to the hat below.
    Attached Files

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  • DonBelt
    replied
    More importantly- what is with the big hats? What is it they are trying to hide up there?

    Leave a comment:


  • chanjyj
    replied
    No matter how they rush, with sanctions in place (even without them) I don't think they have the capability. That said, the disappearance of some top officials (posted earlier in this thread) is also not making alot of sense to me.

    Leave a comment:


  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by chanjyj View Post
    Your theory.. nevermind.. Well, the whole theory is blown apart by the fact they cannot field an ICBM, period. Unless that fella believes they can.

    Nobody can be that batshit insane.
    No, not right now they can't. That's why I said it's a "headlong rush to field an ICBM/IRBM force"

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  • chanjyj
    replied
    Your theory.. nevermind.. Well, the whole theory is blown apart by the fact they cannot field an ICBM, period. Unless that fella believes they can.

    Nobody can be that batshit insane.

    Leave a comment:


  • TopHatter
    replied
    Here's a rather far-fetched theory that occurred to me, please critique.

    Suppose Kim III (and his aunt and uncle?) are playing an even deeper game than we suspect...that he/they realize that Juche and Songun are not sustainable practices

    The (rather shaky) evidence:
    Our portly Young General was educated in the West so he's probably got some idea of the world outside the basketcase known as the Kim Family.
    I've read reports in the news that he has been quietly liberalizing certain aspects of the economy and NK life, however slightly.

    What if he intends to open NK up even more but must first secure his place of leadership:

    Domestically - Assure the military that "Yes, you're still Number One in the DPRK...for now" so they don't decide to remove his head from his neck

    and

    Internationally - Have a credible nuclear shield to prevent an external power from adding his name to list that includes Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein.

    This somewhat sudden headlong rush to field an ICBM/IRBM force would certain accomplish both goals in a single, albeit severely risky, stroke.

    What if this is all an attempt to eventual bring North Korea out of the darkness, even a little?

    Am I giving Fat Boy too much credit and he's simply doing what Daddy and Grandpa did best?

    Leave a comment:


  • chanjyj
    replied
    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    In any case, supposing NK launches one of their more "advanced" missiles, Taepodong-2 perhaps, to celebrate <whatever>, they will be running a risk that it fails (again) in front of the entire world and they're made to look even more impotent than usual.
    I can't believe you honestly think they can understand what makes them look like a fool. If they did they'd stop the bullshit propaganda videos with "battleships" using tank turrets. I mean.. WTH? Tank turrets?


    Originally posted by USSWisconsin View Post


    ...

    The ones with tank turrets must be the battleships? or perhaps its the ones with the long twin barrel 57mms?

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Typical CYA report.

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  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by Stitch View Post
    North Korea May Have A Nuclear Warhead To Put On A Missile, Says Pentagon
    "Tom also cautions that there are many steps between miniaturizing a weapon and actually being able to deliver it to a precise location or being able to trigger it at a precise time. It's not clear where on that timeline North Korea is."

    Not that DIA asked me, but I doubt they've managed to turn one of their fission devices into an actual warhead.
    And as the quote points out, even having a warhead small enough for a missile to carry is still far from having a reliable and deliverable weapon.

    In any case, supposing NK launches one of their more "advanced" missiles, Taepodong-2 perhaps, to celebrate <whatever>, they will be running a risk that it fails (again) in front of the entire world and they're made to look even more impotent than usual.

    Leave a comment:

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