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  • Count me among those who believe that pretty much every NK nuclear test has been a fizzle or failure.

    The likelihood that NK has bypassed the basic 15-25 KT design and gone straight to what we'd consider more advanced, miniaturized, low-yield devices, is about zero. Thus, they have not yet demonstrated that they can, in fact, construct a reliable, working nuclear device.

    All this presupposes the latest test did not yield in the proper kilotonnage range for a standard "first" device. I've been very busy and have not kept up with the latest news.

    Now, with all that said, a missile is not required for delivery. A manned aircraft on a suicide mission would potentially do the job. Load the nuke on the centerline of a Su or MiG, place a big button in the cockpit, and tell the pilot to overfly Seoul at 800' and push the button. If he were part of a much larger strike package, he might get through. It is also possible that every jet in the package gets shot down, but Seoul's proximity to the DMZ would make this difficult.

    Note to membership: We need to be more careful with chew toys. We are like a dog, given a big rawhide bone, that shreds it immediately and gobbles it up. A better option is to savor it over time, with gentle chewing. ;)

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Chogy View Post
      Count me among those who believe that pretty much every NK nuclear test has been a fizzle or failure.

      The likelihood that NK has bypassed the basic 15-25 KT design and gone straight to what we'd consider more advanced, miniaturized, low-yield devices, is about zero. Thus, they have not yet demonstrated that they can, in fact, construct a reliable, working nuclear device.

      All this presupposes the latest test did not yield in the proper kilotonnage range for a standard "first" device. I've been very busy and have not kept up with the latest news.

      Now, with all that said, a missile is not required for delivery. A manned aircraft on a suicide mission would potentially do the job. Load the nuke on the centerline of a Su or MiG, place a big button in the cockpit, and tell the pilot to overfly Seoul at 800' and push the button. If he were part of a much larger strike package, he might get through. It is also possible that every jet in the package gets shot down, but Seoul's proximity to the DMZ would make this difficult.

      Note to membership: We need to be more careful with chew toys. We are like a dog, given a big rawhide bone, that shreds it immediately and gobbles it up. A better option is to savor it over time, with gentle chewing. ;)
      Chew toy spotted here:
      http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/eas...tml#post910741

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Chogy View Post
        Count me among those who believe that pretty much every NK nuclear test has been a fizzle or failure.

        The likelihood that NK has bypassed the basic 15-25 KT design and gone straight to what we'd consider more advanced, miniaturized, low-yield devices, is about zero. Thus, they have not yet demonstrated that they can, in fact, construct a reliable, working nuclear device.

        In last Nuclear test the USGS Reported 4.2 magnitude of Earthquake ..So it may have greater yield than 25KT or may be a Thermonuclear device too


        A manned aircraft on a suicide mission would potentially do the job. Load the nuke on the centerline of a Su or MiG, place a big button in the cockpit, and tell the pilot to overfly Seoul at 800' and push the button. If he were part of a much larger strike package, he might get through. It is also possible that every jet in the package gets shot down, but Seoul's proximity to the DMZ would make this difficult.

        North Korea has 100 of old Soviet-era AN-2 biplanes . Invisible to radar because they are made of fabric and hug the earth..so well suit for Stealth Bomber Role
        sajeevpearlj.blogspot.com

        Comment


        • A Canadian Colonel gets up out of bed.

          He goes to the bathroom to take care of the mundane morning ritual.

          He yawns as he goes to the kitchen to pour himself a cup of coffe and realizes that he's hungry.

          He boots up the computer-hoping and hoping there's something there to satisfy his growing hunger.

          His eyes light up and he smirks.

          "Yes....the chew toy gods are generous....."
          Last edited by YellowFever; 12 Apr 13,, 19:01.

          Comment


          • When I look at Kim Jr, i dont see a guy spoiling for a fight. I am inclined to believe that all of this saber rattling and bellicosity is purely for domestic consumption. I think in his calculation, what China or SK or the US make of his antics is a distant consideration. His over-riding concern has to be shoring up his support at home. It matters not one jot if the rest of the world thinks him a strutting fool, so long as the home audience approves. Of course this is all speculation on my part. Thats the problem with cloistered dictator nutcase types. You can never be certain weather they believe their own bullshit or are posturing for the crowd.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by SajeevJino View Post
              In last Nuclear test the USGS Reported 4.2 magnitude of Earthquake ..So it may have greater yield than 25KT or may be a Thermonuclear device too
              I know you did a google and pick this just to play here but your farts are better suited on your food. We can't stop you from playing with yourself but we can laugh at your small weenie.

              Comment


              • If a shooting war breaks out and NorKs attack Tokyo first as they have threatened, how does that sit with RoK? If Japan retaliates does the RoK still harbor resentments from their history with Japan or will they work with them against fellow Koreans? It seems a little like the mideast where Iraq attacked Israel to try to draw them into the conflict in the belief it would break up the coalition.

































                i

                Comment


                • Originally posted by DonBelt View Post
                  If a shooting war breaks out and NorKs attack Tokyo first as they have threatened, how does that sit with RoK? If Japan retaliates does the RoK still harbor resentments from their history with Japan or will they work with them against fellow Koreans? It seems a little like the mideast where Iraq attacked Israel to try to draw them into the conflict in the belief it would break up the coalition.




                  i


                  If Japan was going to attack NK, it would do best to coordinate with the ROK, forming a coalition, but if that wasn't possible, then it has ample access to NK which doesn't violate ROK or PRC airspace. I would imagine a naval bombardment would suit the Japanese military pretty well. If Japan attacks independently, then perhaps a few stealthy tomahawks from a Japanese SSN or, considerably less stealthy; airstrikes from an "Aviation Ship Battle Group"?
                  sigpic"If your plan is for one year, plant rice. If your plan is for ten years, plant trees.
                  If your plan is for one hundred years, educate children."

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by USSWisconsin View Post
                    If Japan was going to attack NK, it would do best to coordinate with the ROK, forming a coalition, but if that wasn't possible, then it has ample access to NK which doesn't violate ROK or PRC airspace. I would imagine a naval bombardment would suit the Japanese military pretty well. If Japan attacks independently, then perhaps a few stealthy tomahawks from a Japanese SSN or, considerably less stealthy; airstrikes from an "Aviation Ship Battle Group"?
                    Or the SKs could thank god that the Norks was stupid enough to give them first warning by attacking Japan first, and use warning to initiate suppression of NK artillery on the DMZ.

                    I mean, it seems to me that once the NK starts any sort of large attack, SK and the US will have to assume a full scale war is imminent. If the North's first move is somehow not directed across the DMZ, then the best move for SK and US forces is probably to seize the initiative by attacking en mass across the DMZ immediately and not stopping until they hit the Yalu or meet up with Chinese forces.
                    Last edited by citanon; 12 Apr 13,, 23:09.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                      I know you did a google and pick this just to play here but your farts are better suited on your food. We can't stop you from playing with yourself but we can laugh at your small weenie.
                      The Col sure hasn't mellowed with age.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        Typical CYA report.
                        Someone just got fired

                        WH downplays N. Korea's capacity to deploy nuclear weapon - CBS News Video

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          I know you did a google and pick this just to play here but your farts are better suited on your food. We can't stop you from playing with yourself but we can laugh at your small weenie.
                          Sir ..this is the link where I get 4.2 mag of EQ in North Korea

                          http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/

                          My claim of 4.2 mag Artificial EQ ..shown here ..the USGS reports 5.1 Mag in the coordination of 41.308 N, 129.076 E

                          sajeevpearlj.blogspot.com

                          Comment


                          • The 4.2 is a given but the 25kt is the thing you're dragging out of your ass. You took the seismic data without any understanding and plug it into the straight formula to come up with the 25kt. EVERYBODY else has been saying sub 10kt. BTW, this is in no way a thermonuke. A thermonuke is a two stage weapon and the seismic data correspond to a single stage weapon.
                            Last edited by JAD_333; 13 Apr 13,, 21:10.

                            Comment


                            • Uh dude you should look at the math for a quick second:

                              Richter magnitude scale - Wikipedia

                              Assuming an average magnitude of 5.0, we get a joule equivalent of 2 TJ (1 terajoule = 1,000,000,000,000 joules). In comparison with WWII atomic bomb 'Little Boy' which was 67 TJ, this measure of force is a joke. If you wanted to further convert the value of 2 TJ to explosive force in kilotons, it would be a measly .479 Kt.

                              Conclusion: the nuclear test was a failure.
                              Last edited by Red Team; 13 Apr 13,, 06:26.
                              "Draft beer, not people."

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Red Team View Post
                                Uh dude you should look at the math for a quick second:

                                Richter magnitude scale - Wikipedia

                                Assuming an average magnitude of 5.0, we get a joule equivalent of 2 TJ (1 terajoule = 1,000,000,000,000 joules). In comparison with WWII atomic bomb 'Little Boy' which was 67 TJ, this measure of force is a joke. If you wanted to further convert the value of 2 TJ to explosive force in kilotons, it would be a measly .479 Kt.
                                Then how you calculate the Tsar bomb test.. massive EQ in history
                                sajeevpearlj.blogspot.com

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